Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Frascella's NFL Top 100, Part 9: Top 20 Time. Superstar Territory...

Photo Credit: Niner Noise


It's time for controversy. Feelings are gonna get hurt. There will be snubs in my top 20.

T.J. Watt, Nick Chubb, Joey Bosa and Mike Evans led the way in Part 8 of my NFL Top 100 series. Before we get to Part 9, here's my ranking criteria, again:

1. 50% of the weight: "The Eye Test" - my own personal assessment of the player's talent, productivity and overall impact on winning. This has to come first, otherwise it wouldn't be my list. 

2. 20%: Stats. The raw numbers. 

3. 10%: Impact on winning in pressure situations and most importantly, the playoffs. 

4. 10%: The experts over at Pro Football Focus really know their stuff; they examine every single play of the NFL season, and I trust their detailed analyses. I'm giving 10% of the weight to their 2019 Top 101 NFL Players

5. 10%: Recent Pro Bowl selections. Thanks to the coaches, players and fans to their contributions, here. 

Please note: I use logic. The quarterback position is the most influential in all of professional sports, and I absolutely take that into account (PFF does not, in their rankings).

20. George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

-2019 Key Stat: 7.3 YAC (best in the game)/85 receptions (3rd-best TE)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #1 overall player

Yup, you're reading that correctly...Pro Football Focus ranked George Kittle as the No. 1 football player in the world. Seems a bit extreme to me, but I know what they're getting at: Kittle impacts the game in every possible way. We all know about his catch-and-run ability at this point, but he's also a phenomenal blocker and all-around leader on a strong 49ers' team. He truly is the total package. I can't rank him as my No. 1 overall player, but I think it's entirely fair to squeeze him into my top 20. He's physical; he's a tone-setter and he's a fun guy to watch in action. He should be a force for a long time to come.

19. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

-2019 Key Stat: 1,540 rushing yds (most in the game)/446 playoff yds (also the most)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #65 overall player

Does it get anymore dominant than that? Most rushing yards in the regular season and the playoffs? Henry was a horse. A beast. He pounded both the Patriots and Ravens into submission in the postseason. 34 carries for 182 yards vs. the Pats, and 30 carries for 195 yards vs. the heavily-favored Ravens. Can you imagine that? I remember throughout the second half of the regular season I was saying and writing, wow, this three-horse race between the Ravens, Chiefs and Patriots is going to be really interesting in the AFC. I can't wait. Yeah, um, Derrick Henry wasn't havin' that. He stomped all over those plans and expectations. He put together one of the best pure rushing seasons we will ever see.

18. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

-2019 Key Stat: 860 yds/7 TDs in just 12 games
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #67 overall player

Look at the respect this speed demon gets...both the Pro Bowl voters and Pro Football Focus consider games played and health when making their selections. And yet, there he was. Tyreek was again selected as a Pro Bowler despite playing in just 12 regular season games, and he made the PFF Top 101 over excellent receivers who played all 16 games, like Jarvis Landry, Julian Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald, Kenny Golladay (who led all WRs in TDs), Odell Beckham Jr. and Keenan Allen. That's how good Tyreek is. That's how impactful he is. Not too long ago, I tweeted this:
And yeah, I'm ranking 'Reek 18th here, but I still believe what I wrote. If you wanted to rank Hill No. 2 overall, I wouldn't put up a fight. I mean, when you get a chance, just watch what this guy does to opposing defenses. I'm only going with the conservative ranking here because Reid, Bieniemy, Mahomes and Kelce also deserve credit for the Chiefs' tremendous offensive success. It's a total team effort, for sure.

17. Khalil Mack, Edge, Chicago Bears

-2019 Key Stat: 70 QB pressures
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #48 overall player

I try not to have too much recency bias. Mack was the (defensive) talk of the league in 2018, and his Bears were one of the surprise, feel-good stories of the season. But the Bears and Mitchell Trubisky fell off a cliff in '19, and maybe that hindered Mack's production just a bit? We're all human. Maybe he took a few extra plays off, here and there. I wrote something similar about Von Miller, earlier in my Top 100 series. Regardless, obviously, Mack's 70 pressures were up there with the most in the game. The guy's an absolute monster. A bona fide matchup nightmare.

16. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

-2019 Key Stat: 127 targets, 83 rec & 997 yds in just 12 games
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #33 overall player

Per game, he was probably the best and most productive wide receiver in the NFL. Davante was a busy man last season. Aaron Rodgers didn't have alotta trust in his other receiving options. When Davante was healthy enough to play, he was getting peppered with a constant barrage of targets, and he responded quite well. You know how hard it is to catch 83 balls in 12 games when the opposing D knows the ball is going to you the vast majority of the time? It's near impossible. That's just a testament to Davante's incredible route-running ability. He's an all-around machine at the wide receiver position. It's just...it's so close with Michael Thomas, Julio and Hop that I have to go with games played when splitting hairs.

15. Nick Bosa, Edge, San Francisco 49ers

-2019 Key Stat: Most QB pressures ever by a rookie
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Was still in college.
-Pro Football Focus: #28 overall player

Bosa and No. 12 on my list were the best defensive players I watched during the 2019 season. Sure, it helps when you deliver on the hype - Nick was the second overall pick in the '19 Draft - but this wasn't a case of, oh, everyone says this kid is good, so every time he makes a good play we're going to over-hype him. You know what I mean by that? Like, I feel like Andrew Luck always got that type of treatment. When he did something well, the pundits were like see, that's the Luck we've expected from the very beginning. But if he did something poorly, it got ignored. Anyway, I digress. That's not the case with Bosa. He's one of the primary reasons the 49ers went from 4-12 to near Super Bowl champion. He's that good, and that impactful. I'm not sure I've ever seen a better rookie at any position. Fast, strong, explosive, relentless...Nick Bosa is the real deal.

14. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

-2019 Key Stat: 97 rec, 1,229 yds (both most at tight end)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #18 overall player

When it comes to impact on the Chiefs' success, we're splitting hairs between Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Honestly, I could go either way. I'm easily swayed in this debate. But I'm going Kelce here, because he played 16 games and 'Reek only played 12. How about Kelce's consistency across the board? He's played 16 games in five out of the past six seasons. The only year he played less than 16 (2017), he was a real slacker and played in only 15. He's been a Pro Bowler five seasons in a row. He's been over 1,000 yards four seasons in a row. He's been over 80 receptions four seasons in a row. What more can you ask from a tight end? Kelce isn't as good a blocker as Kittle, but he's still smart and solid. To sum it up...Kelce's a superstar. The best at his position.

13. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

-2019 Key Stat: 2,392 total yards & 19 TDs (um...what?)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. (Wait...what?)
-Pro Football Focus: #24 overall player

Wait, let me back up a second, here...Christian McCaffrey wasn't a Pro Bowler two years ago? He had 1,965 total yards and 13 touchdowns...is that the biggest snub, ever? That makes me furious. Anyway, clearly, this guy is already one of the greatest fantasy football assets of all time. He is the ultimate stat-stuffer. He's like Marshall Faulk on hyper-drive. But "CMC" was the best fantasy player over the past couple of seasons, and these were the Panthers' records: 7-9 and 5-11. They actually got worse, as CMC's production improved. And this brings us back to the same ole discussion...just how important is the running back position? I'm not gonna go down the rabbit hole again, because I already discussed this in this installment of my Top 100. Yeah, Christian McCaffrey is probably a top-10 player in the NFL, but my rankings incorporate impact on winning. Maybe it's really difficult to win when your best player is your running back; or semantically, when your offense is built around your running back. The Titans pulled it off this past season, but the Browns (Chubb), Bengals (Mixon), Jaguars (Fournette), Raiders (Jacobs), Giants (Barkley) and Cowboys (Elliott) did not. I'm not likin' those odds.

12. Stephon Gilmore, CB, New England Patriots

-2019 Key Stat: 6 INTs (most in the game)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #22 overall player

My job is really easy when the stats match up with The Eye Test. Gilmore was the best defensive player I saw last season, and the numbers help to support that, as he led the NFL in interceptions. There are four types of corners in my opinion: (1) Pure cover corners, (2) playmakers/gamblers, (3) guys that do neither particularly well and (4) guys that do both well. Category 4 is basically impossible to find. Obviously...that's Gilmore. He can play press coverage and go step-for-step with the best. He can hang back, then close quickly on the ball for a pick. He's physical and doesn't back down, but he's also extremely fast. He does it all. He is - by far- the best player on the world-famous Patriots heading into the 2020/21 NFL season.

11. Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams

-2019 Key Stat: 80 pressures (#1 for DT)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #2 overall player

Aaron Donald is the best defensive player in the world. This is just something we know...like...McCaffrey is the best fantasy player. Jerry Rice is the greatest receiver of all time. Tom Brady is the best playoff quarterback of all time. These are just things we know about football. But, this past season, I had Gilmore and Nick Bosa as my top two defensive players. I had Donald third. Regardless, I'm not gonna knock him off his pedestal. No one has EVER gotten pressure from the interior like him. He is truly one of a kind.

Tune in next time...when pressure busts pipes in my top 10!!

ARCHIVE:

Part 8, Players 21-30

Part 7, Players 31-40

Part 6, Players 41-50

Part 5, Players 51-59

Part 4, Players 60-69

Part 3, Players 70-79

Part 2, Players 80-89

Part 1, Players 90-100

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