Photo Credit: Through the Fence Baseball
1. 50% of the weight: My own personal assessment of the pitcher, based on stuff, stats, consistency, ballpark factors and whatever else floats into my mind. This has to get the most weight, otherwise it wouldn't be my list.
2. 20% of the weight: The story of the pitcher. Who is this guy, over time? For example, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are pretty f'n awesome every single year; that has to count for something, right? Conversely, guys like Ken Giles and Emilio Pagan have had fluctuating results. Guys like Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have had dramatically fluctuating results. You get the idea. Who are they, really?
3. 20% of the weight: 2019 Yahoo fantasy baseball ranking. The algorithm combines all statistics in a reasonable way, so this is very helpful. For starting pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Quality Starts and Wins. For relief pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and Saves. This ranking system doesn't include Holds, so I will have to evaluate the middle relievers and setup men on my own.
4. 10% of the weight: 2018 stats, and maybe a little consideration for 2017.
69. Marco Gonzales, SP, Seattle Mariners
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #39 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 147 K/203 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 145 K/166 innings
Three lefties in a row here, to start us off right...
Poor Marco...nobody really talks about him. The Astros win the division, make deep postseason runs and get all of the headlines for cheating. The Angels added big names in Rendon and Maddon to an even bigger name in Mike Trout. The A's seem to be perennial playoff contenders amidst "Moneyball" talk (and right now, they are the center of attention for not paying their minor league players) and the Rangers finally have a quality rotation to go along with their power bats.
So who the hell talks about the Mariners? I don't hear a single peep about Gonzales, a 28-year old lefty whom the Mariners "found" and salvaged. Early in his career, with the Cardinals, Gonzales bounced back and forth between the minors and bigs. His Cardinals' ERAs? 4.15, 13.50 and 13.50 (in small sample sizes). But the Mariners saw something in him anyway, and he has delivered in a major way. They found their ace in the rubble, a guy who has thrown 166 and 203 innings in the past two seasons. He's been remarkably consistent for a reclamation project, and he led the majors this past season with 34 starts. This is a solid, durable lefty arm.
68. Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #38 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 173 K/165 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 44 K/33 innings
Another "Zylbert Guy" - this 26-year old talent was the 7th overall pick in the 2012 Draft. As a 6'4" lefty with a nice fastball and Zito-esque, slow curveball, Fried's (unsurprisingly) been accompanied by hype along the way. He's starting to deliver on that now, as he cracked 160 innings in his first full season in the bigs. If Fried can cut down on his walks and lower his WHIP on a consistent basis, he'd certainly be on a crash course for my top 50. He's smooth and has putaway stuff, so he just needs to refine the little things and "polish up" as we say in the biz.
67. Matthew Boyd, SP, Detroit Tigers
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #47 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 238 K/185 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 159 K/170 innings
When I think about Matt Boyd...I immediately think of Patrick Corbin. Just look at the numbers...
Corbin (age 26): 131 Ks in 155 innings
(age 27): 178 Ks in 189 innings
(age 28): 246 Ks in 200 innings
Boyd (age 26): 110 Ks in 135 innings
(age 27): 159 Ks in 170 innings
(age 28): 238 Ks in 185 innings
Like...what? What did they go to the same personal pitching coach during the offseason? That's uncanny. Corbin is a 6'3" lefty...and so is Boyd. Neither one of them have a dominant fastball, but they've both learned to lean on devastating, disappearing sliders. They've identified their "money" pitch, and it took them both until age 28 to really exploit it. I didn't know if the success was repeatable for Corbin, but so far, it has been.
Now, for me, the catch-22 is Boyd's ERA. Why is he still hovering between 4.30 and 4.60? Why didn't the 238 strikeouts (tied for the 10th-most in all of baseball, with Corbin of course) translate into better overall results? I'm not quite sure, yet. Maybe it's because the Tigers suck as a team? Maybe their inexperienced defensive players are costing Boyd runs? We can only postulate.
Boyd's a lefty (commodity), and his strikeout numbers indicate he might possibly be a top-50 pitcher; but right now, I'm just not willing to go there. I need to see the Ks translate into other stats, a development that eventually occurred for Boyd's mirror, Corbin.
66. Dakota Hudson, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #36 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 136 K/174 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.63 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 19 K/27 innings
This is not sustainable. Hudson's 86 walks were the most in all of baseball. But somehow, he just kept gettin' the job done. I mean, we can read between the lines of his numbers...he's getting groundball double-plays when he needs them. He's walking guys - there are plenty of runners on base - and not striking out enough, yet his ERA hasn't been higher than 3.35 yet. But if he doesn't get his issues under control, his results will change. Yes, 2018 was an extremely small sample size, but look at the upward trends - ERA and WHIP both rose in '19. The more innings he throws at that walk rate - despite very good natural stuff - the more likely he becomes a 4.00-plus guy. At age 25, it's time for Dakota to get a better overall feel for his craft.
65. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #85 SP
-2019 Notable Stats (Rookie): 2.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 96 K/80 innings
-Minor League Stats: 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 384 K/382 innings
Like I wrote about Julio Urias in Part 2 of my series, sometimes we need to rank guys on "spec". Gallen's still a baby - 2019 marked his first appearance in the major leagues. But damn, unlike his predecessor Hudson, this kid has craft. He has feel.
One of the cool things about baseball is...guys usually just are who they are. Steven Summer and I always use Adam LaRoche as an example - just take a look at the consistency of his career stats. You can probably see where I'm going with this...Gallen pitched in the minors from 2014 through (some of) 2019, and poof! Look at the similarities in his first set of big-league numbers. He was the same guy. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it's also an awfully good sign.
Truthfully, this one's also a matter of circumstance. If Derek Jeter and his Marlins had held on to Gallen, I may have snuck him into the back end of my 50s. But Chase Field is a whole 'nother ballgame. Coors Field is a pitcher's hell, but it's incredibly hot at Chase, too (and I'm not talking about the weather in Arizona). Gallen, despite being a young buck, only averaged 92.9 MPH on his fastball as a rookie. That's something to keep an eye on at Chase Field. He'll really have to continue to hit his spots with consistency.
64. Julio Teheran, SP, Los Angeles Angels
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #53 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 162 K/174 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 162 K/175 innings
You know...I'm not really a Teheran guy. I feel like I'm always saying to people - have you seen him pitch recently? His arm is shot. His two-seam fastball is just floating in there. But thankfully, I've learned to ignore my instincts (sometimes). Somehow, someway, Teheran is a pretty damn good pitcher! A 3.67 lifetime ERA and seven-straight seasons of 174+ innings. Ya gotta respect that durability.
Like Gallen, this ranking is a matter of circumstance. Teheran makes my 50s if he stays in the National League with the Braves. But I don't like the AL West for him. The Astros, A's and Rangers all have the potential to mash him. I think he'll fool them early on in his introduction to the AL, but the hitters' transition will come sooner rather than later.
63. Mike Fiers, SP, Oakland Athletics
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #38 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.90 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 126 K/184 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 139 K/172 innings
The Whistleblower!
Man, this guy ruined baseball until coronavirus came along. The latter took the cake.
That being said, I try not to judge for off-the-field activity. And Fiers is like Teheran - he doesn't blow me away with his stuff, either. He averaged just 90 MPH on his fastball last season. And yet? The 34-year old vet just continues to get the job done. More of that A's/Rays analytics "magic", I suppose. Oakland Coliseum is traditionally a pitchers' park, and the crafty ole vet is exploiting that to the best of his ability. You won't be impressed when you watch him pitch, but he's been consistently solid.
62. Zack Britton, RP, New York Yankees
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #52 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 1.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 53 K/61 innings, 29 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 34 K/40 innings, 7 saves
One of the better relief pitchers of his generation. Like Brandon Workman in Part 2 of my series, Britton was a failed starter. It must be something about the AL East (and we can probably figure out what that is). Workman failed as a starter with the Red Sox, and Britton with the Orioles. But ZB quickly found his niche in the bullpen, saving 37 games in 2014 - his first season as a closer - with a ridiculous 1.65 ERA. He followed that up with two more out-of-this-world campaigns - back to back all-star seasons, including a 4th-place finish in the Cy Young voting. And despite advancing years, he's been a steady, solid reliever ever since. Britton's known for his power sinker, one that comes in particularly handy when Aaron Boone needs him to clean up somebody else's mess. Britton saws hitters off and repeatedly kills opposing rallies.
61. Adam Ottavino, RP, New York Yankees
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #37 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 1.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 88 K/66 innings, 29 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 112 K/77 innings, 34 holds
Throughout my series I've been writing that reliever performance fluctuates...but apparently that doesn't apply to Mr. Ottavino. He led the majors in Holds in '18, then finished 4th last season. His ERA dropped below 2.00, despite pitching in a difficult pitchers' park within a difficult division. And don't forget, this kid did a heck of a job pitching at Coors Field in the past, and basically no one else can say that about themselves. Ottavino had five seasons under 4.00 in Colorado, and four of those were under 3.00. That's pretty miraculous work in that park. He's probably the steadiest setup man in the game right now (even if I don't have a ton of confidence in him in the postseason).
60. David Price, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #83 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.28 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 128 K/107 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.58 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 177 K/176 innings
I don't know why...but I love making people look at David Price's career stats.
I mean, did you really know that David Price is one of the best pitchers of his generation? Did you really have that context?
Led the majors in innings pitched in 2014 and 2016. Led the AL in ERA in 2012 and 2015. Led the majors in starts in '11, '14 and '16. Won 15 or more games six times. Struck out over 200 batters five times. Led the majors in strikeouts in 2014. A five-time all-star. Four times he finished in the top six in Cy Young voting. Three times in the top two. In 2012 he won the award. Did you really know all this?
And he's finally tapering off just a bit now, but the transition to the NL will help him. He'll grit and grind. He'll battle for every single out. And one thing has never changed about David Price...he's not afraid to challenge you with his fastball. His velocity has dropped from 94.3 to 92.7 to 92.0 over the course of the past three seasons - which is part of the reason why I couldn't squeeze him into my 50s - but he's still coming after guys. He won't back down. And there's very minimal individual pressure when you're in a rotation with two of the absolute best, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. Julio Urias, Alex Wood and Ross Stripling should be quite helpful, too.
Come back next time for the 50s!
ARCHIVE:
Part 1: Pitchers 90-100
Part 2: Pitchers 81-89
Part 3: Pitchers 70-80
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