Wednesday, December 28, 2016

NFL Quarterback Power Rankings: Mariota & Prescott Rocket Up the Rankings

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It's "Captain Live" DJ Toby's favorite time of year. 

No, not the holidays, but the time for me to rank the NFL's notable quarterbacks. He'll read this list, blow a gasket, and then I'll receive 447 texts from friends and family members who want to know why I'm so friggin' high on Marcus Mariota

Before we get into it, as always, I have to explain my system:

1. The current season carries the most weight in my mind, but last year deserves some consideration, and the year prior gets an iota. 

2. Second half, it's a close game...can this quarterback protect the ball, maximize possessions and make plays under intense physical and emotional pressure?

3. Does this guy have confidence in his ability? And if so, is that confidence warranted, or is he an absolute moron like Robert Griffin III

4. Physical skills to consider: Arm strength, accuracy, footwork, throwing mechanics, mobility in and out of the pocket, field vision, ability to extend plays, size, strength and agility. 

5. Mental skills to consider: Game preparation, knowledge of opposing defenses, pocket presence, clock and score awareness, confidence to check out of poor playcalls in exchange for upgrades, ability to rebound from mistakes and awareness of personal limitations. 

I'm probably forgetting something, but let's get rollin'...

Dishonorable Mention(s):  You couldn't even make the top 75???


Cardale Jones - Bills
Christian Hackenberg - Jets

Johnny Fro's Top 75

75. Jacoby Brissett, Patriots:  Protected the ball well in a decisive victory over the Texans in Week 3. If you watched the game, you had to consider the following possibility:

Is Jacoby Brissett better than Brock Osweiler? Isn't Osweiler making over $70 million, while Brissett is a kid from the practice squad?

74. Kellen Clemens, Chargers:  Philip Rivers is so durable that the Chargers don't even know if Clemens can complete a 5-yard pass anymore. He could be the worst player in the world, but no one would know the difference right now. 

73. Matt Schaub, Falcons:  I feel like I say this every year, but...yes, this guy is still in the league. Yes, his pass velocity is in the vicinity of 42 MPH. 

72. Scott Tolzien, Colts

71. Joe Webb, Panthers:  An athletic third-stringer who can make plays with his legs if necessary. 

70. Sean Mannion, Rams:  Yeah, so I only know him from Hard Knocks. Who are you trying to kid? You know we're in the same boat. 

69. Josh Johnson, Giants

68. Austin Davis, Broncos

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67. Paxton Lynch, Broncos:  Gawky, clumsy, inaccurate and ill-prepared. Haven't seen any hopeful signs for the future in his rookie year. 

66. Landry Jones, Steelers:  Not sure why the Steelers never upgrade here. Whenever Ben goes down -- which is essentially a foregone conclusion at this stage of his career -- Pittsburgh deflates like Ronda Rousey's ego after her sobering loss to Holly Holm. This list will show that there are about 6 or 7 solid third-stringers out there. They should be back-ups. 

65. E.J. Manuel, Bills

64. Zach Mettenberger, Steelers:  An anti-Zylbertttt guy. As you can see, I think he's a bit better than his teammate, Jones. I thought Mettenberger played fairly well in Tennessee given impossible circumstances. He'll never be a starter, but he could be a back-up. 

63. Matt Cassel, Titans

62. Brett Hundley, Packers

61. Jared Goff, Rams:  When you're the No. 1 overall selection in the NFL Draft, and you're joining an offense that has been a laughingstock since Kurt Warner left, and you can't beat out Case Keenum in training camp...that says an awful lot, doesn't it?

These are the reads I have on Goff: Dumb, childish, unwilling to learn and/or make adjustments with overrated physical tools. He'll need an offensive genius to take over their playbook in order to avoid becoming one of the biggest busts in NFL history.

60. Bryce Petty, Jets:  I like his energy and competitiveness, but the mental skills simply aren't there. All young quarterbacks are going to throw interceptions, but some of his have been absolutely mind-boggling. He's just not reading coverages. Some will say "he needs time to learn," but I doubt he'll ever get an extended opportunity at the NFL level. He'll hope to be a career back-up, and make some nice money.

59. T.J. Yates, Dolphins:  Very surprised that he was initially a third-stringer this season. He's moved up to back-up by default, due to the injury to "franchise quarterback" Ryan Tannehill, but as one of the top 64, he should already have been a back-up. He did a very nice job filling in for Brian Hoyer in Houston last season; he has some moxie.

58. Dan Orlovsky, Lions:  A talented career back-up who never gets to take many snaps. The QBs ahead of him have been durable.

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57. A.J. McCarron, Bengals

56. Matt McGloin, Raiders

55. Chase Daniel, Eagles

54. Luke McCown, Saints

53. Christian Ponder, 49ers:  Another one I'm surprised to see as a third-stringer. He's no world beater, but he was an adequate starter for much of his run in Minnesota. Not loaded with talent, but understands the nuances of the position and protects the ball relatively well. Too solid to be the 3rd man on one of the worst teams in the game.

52. Drew Stanton, Cardinals

51. Robert Griffin III, Browns:  I originally had him 49th, but he's just really, really bad. He's terrible without his mobility. His reads are slow and he's horribly inaccurate. There is no question that he's the worst quarterback on the Browns, and yet he continues to start. Hue Jackson is an embarrassment to coaching. If he doesn't get canned, then the Browns organization simply doesn't care about winning. They will continue to be a laughingstock.


50. Tom Savage, Texans:  It doesn't take much to outplay Osweiler, but Savage looked pretty sharp after Bill O'Brien handed him the keys. (Aside: I've probably said this to everyone I know who follows football, but if the Texans win their division or somehow reach the postseason again, O'Brien HAS to be Coach of the Year. This guy is a miracle-worker. Consider Osweiler's embarrassing play combined with the absence of JJ Watt.) 

The key for Savage will be remembering that he has nothing to lose. It's impossible for him to be more disappointing than Osweiler (John Elway is looking savvy once again, right?). Savage needs to play with confidence and lean on DeAndre Hopkins when he can. I think he'll be decent. 

49. Chad Henne, Jaguars

48. Brandon Weeden, Texans:  Can't believe he's a third-stringer. Weeden is an underrated pocket quarterback who does a nice job when given opportunities. He has confidence in his arm and is a seasoned vet. With him, you don't feel like your season is completely over if your starter goes down. No question he should be a back-up elsewhere. 

47. Derek Anderson, Panthers

46. Blaine Gabbert, 49ers:  He's wildly inaccurate, a la Robert Griffin, but I was surprisingly impressed by Gabbert's athleticism and foot speed during his stint as a starter this season. He's a playmaker; he just can't make the throws. If he could somehow correct his accuracy issues, he could potentially manipulate opposing defenses with his run/pass versatility. I doubt his broken arm can be fixed at this point, though. 

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45. Brock Osweiler, Texans:  The only thing I like about him is that he gets rid of the ball quickly. He could be like Alex Smith, if he didn't suck so much. He stays ahead of Savage and Weeden until we see Savage play a couple games. Osweiler has played poorly, but he also protected some close wins by not screwing up royally. That's occasional value for a team that needs to win close by nature. 

44. Colt McCoy, Redskins:  A high-energy, high-character leader who is universally admired by his teammates and coaches. He has the will to win and doesn't back down from anybody, even if he's the inferior talent in the fight. I'll take him on my team any day of the week.

43. Mark Sanchez, Cowboys:  Still one of the more seasoned back-up quarterbacks in the league, but he happens to be on a roster that boasts Dak Prescott and Tony Romo. "Sanchize" can go elsewhere and easily be a primary back-up. 

42. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers:  Still has the legs, but can't complete a pass anymore. Chip Kelly is somehow making his 49er quarterbacks worse as time passes. 

41. Matt Barkley, Bears:  When Brian Hoyer initially went down and Barkley was forced into their Thursday Night game against the Packers, the latter looked as if he had never played football before. Barkley had zero awareness of blitzes or blind-side pressure, and the Packers subsequently pulled away in the second half. 

But now, with Hoyer and Jay Cutler both out of the way, Barkley has settled in and played surprisingly well. He broke out with a high-volume, big-number passing performance against the Titans, and has played with confidence and rhythm ever since. I'm not sure he'll ever be a full-time starting quarterback, but he has certainly raised some eyebrows in the past handful of weeks. It's nearly impossible to find a reliable QB at the NFL level, so Barkley has earned his newfound position on the radar.

40. Ryan Mallett, Ravens:  I want my Jets to clean house at QB, and I think Mallett is an outsider who deserves an opportunity to compete for a starting job. His professionalism has come into question in the past, but his talent is hard to come by. He's a big, strong, imposing figure under center, and he has the arm to make the pro throws.

Case in point: Long-term, Bill O'Brien went with "character" guys in Hoyer and Osweiler over Mallett...is he really better off? Has an offense with DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller and Will Fuller reached its full potential? I don't think I need to answer that question. Give me the talent first...we'll deal with the "character" issues later.

39. Nick Foles, Chiefs:  Another guy I'd like my Jets to take a look at. The pickings are slim -- you have to look for back-ups who could potentially be decent-to-solid starters.

38. Case Keenum, Rams


37. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets:  This is exactly what happened: (1) Fitz was upset that the Jets wouldn't just give him the salary that he wanted. (2) He's an Ivy League guy -- he was aware, in all likelihood, that this would be his final season as a starter in the NFL. (3) From the very beginning of the season, he made it very clear that he would not be taking any crushing blows from opposing defensive players. He would rather get rid of the ball quickly and heave it into quadruple coverage, than hold on to the ball a millisecond longer in an effort to make the right throw. 

He mailed in the season. Plain and simple. 

36. Josh McCown, Browns

35. Shaun Hill, Vikings

34. Mike Glennon, Bucs:  Another Jet candidate for me. Bring him in. 

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33. Carson Wentz, Eagles:  We saw some really good things early in the season -- before opposing defensive coordinators had the chance to gameplan for his style -- but once "the word" was out, Wentz fell to one of the least productive starting QBs in the game. I don't see any electric ability here. 

32. Trevor Siemian, Broncos:  A very boring, average NFL quarterback. Not terrible, but not a franchise cornerstone. 

31. Blake Bortles, Jaguars:  We all witnessed the REAL Blake Bortles this season. He was a fantasy darling in 2015, but he's nothing more than a garbage time, mop-up man. His arm action is too long and his nerves too weak for crunch time NFL action. He doesn't have the goods when the going gets tough. I mean, just say his name out loud:  Blake...Bortles. He doesn't even sound like a good NFL QB. 

30. Sam Bradford, Vikings:  Go ahead, tell me that he is the 7th ranked quarterback this season. I know he is. I know the stats...but you're never going to fool me. Franchises will never go anywhere with Sam Bradford as their starting quarterback because he's soft mentally and physically, and limited from a talent standpoint.

Let's go over the facts: (1) The Vikings are undefeated and everything is going swimmingly before Bradford is acquired. (2) Minnesota inexplicably burns a 1st round pick to acquire this clown of a quarterback. (3) Norv Turner mysteriously quits when he realizes how horrible Bradford really is. (4) What was once a promising season, has now deteriorated to the point where there's a mutiny against quality head coach Mike Zimmer

All dysfunction leads back to Bradford. How did things end up with the Rams and Eagles? Have those franchises been able to correct the wrongs perpetrated by Bradford's primadonna presence on their rosters? I think not. 

29. Jay Cutler, Bears:  "The saddest thing in life is wasted talent." - A Bronx Tale

28. Cody Kessler, Browns:  It's truly a travesty that Hue Jackson has been voluntarily starting Robert Griffin III over this hungry and surprisingly talented kid. Kessler has a quicker release than RGIII, superior accuracy, timing, toughness and natural acumen for his position. He's CLEARLY a better all-around quarterback than Griffin. Any football fan could tell you that; let alone an "expert" or "insider."

27. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings:  The story of his devastating injury is still upsetting to read. 

26. Brian Hoyer, Bears

25. Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots:  I have to admit...I was hoping that Garoppolo was one of those all-hype, no-substance back-ups whose positive reputation was concocted by beat reporters repeating that he "looks great in practice." Unfortunately, that wasn't the case. I mean, why would I even think that in the first place? Does anything ever go wrong for the Patriots? Does anything ever go right for the Jets? No and no. I should friggin' learn my lesson at this point. I just have to give in to reality.

Anyway, I was really impressed by Garoppolo's leadership, positive mentality, lightning-quick release and shockingly advanced timing during his short stint as Bill Belichick's primary signal caller. He looked poised, prepared and completely ready to start at the NFL level. That's a credit to Belichick, Josh McDaniels, Tom Brady and of most importantly, Garoppolo himself. He'll go on to big things. 

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24. Matt Moore, Dolphins:  After riding the pine for a couple seasons, Moore was totally ready to go when Ryan Tannehill went down. Moore has always been positive, confident and talented enough to succeed at the game's highest level. He's my kind of guy. A true professional. The kind of guy that teammates naturally rally around. 

23. Tony Romo, Cowboys:  I don't think he'll ever be healthy enough to be a full-time starter again. He's only this high on my list for his pure talent. His career is most certainly in jeopardy. 

22. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins:  Gotta give head coach Adam Gase a ton of credit for sticking with his guy. I've bashed Tannehill throughout his sub-par career, but he finally showed some improvement under Gase's savvy tutelage. Of course he goes down when he's playing the best ball of his professional career. Football is a cruel game. It'll break your heart every time. 

21. Tyrod Taylor, Bills

20. Andy Dalton, Bengals

19. Carson Palmer, Cardinals

18. Jameis Winston, Bucs:  He has a lower QB rating than Cody Kessler, Brian Hoyer and Colin Kaepernick, but his "fuck it" gunslinger attitude has proven successful in tight, late-game scenarios. Winston has pulled out a number of close victories this season by making aggressive throws and squeezing them into ridiculously tight windows. I tip my cap to his results this season; I'm just not sure he can sustain this high-wire, tightrope act over time. 

17. Joe Flacco, Ravens

16. Alex Smith, Chiefs:  I'm personally a huge Alex Smith guy because I love running the ball, controlling the clock and limiting turnovers. That would be my personal coaching style. Smith does his job for Andy Reid, and does it well, but the numbers simply aren't there. 13 touchdowns, 7 picks and a pedestrian 89.9 QB rating. 

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15. Dak Prescott, Cowboys:  3rd in the NFL in QB rating (a whopping 105.6). 23 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. Only 4 picks for the entire season! And his team boasts an incredible 13-2 record.

Does that look like an MVP to you? Because it certainly does to me. 

I've heard all of the LUDICROUS knocks on this kid: (1) "He's only this good because of his offensive line." (2) "He's only this good because Ezekiel Elliott takes all of the pressure off their passing game." (3) He's only this good because Jason Garrett calls 'simple' plays for him."

Seriously??? Give me a f'n break, people!! I'm sick of all of these haters who insist on knocking players, instead of giving credit where credit is due. Where do we draw the line as a society? Guys who suck in every facet of the game, like Robert Griffin III, deserve to get bashed. But rookies who are defying all the odds and playing consistently superb NFL football?

Come on. This has to stop. If the Cowboys offensive line is responsible for ALL of their success -- which I keep hearing from the pundits, over and over again -- then why did they have the WORST record in the NFC last season? Wasn't it essentially the same offensive line? Why are they 13-2 this year, after being 4-12 last?

The answers are Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Two front-line MVP candidates. That's it. Simple. 

14. Eli Manning, Giants:  This is perhaps the worst I've ever seen him play. If the current trends continue, there's no way he'll be ahead of Prescott next year. I just don't have the cojones to put a rookie ahead of a two-time Super Bowl champion whose team is still winning games, and is also going to be in the playoffs. It doesn't seem logical to me...yet. My leash is short. 

13. Philip Rivers, Chargers:  Got more and more careless as yet another disappointing season progressed. You have to remain professional at all times if you want to be a top 10 quarterback. You can't make wild throws simply because you are unhappy. I will not reward that. 

12. Matthew Stafford, Lions:  Calvin Johnson's unexpected retirement forced Stafford to open up his field vision. He spread the ball around to Golden TateMarvin JonesAnquan BoldinEric Ebron and Theo Riddick this season. Stafford has always been one of the more naturally gifted quarterbacks in the world, but this year he boosted his stock with much improved efficiency. 22 touchdowns to only 9 interceptions, and his Lions have been a surprise in the playoff hunt. 

11. Kirk Cousins, Redskins:  Man, Jay Gruden has coached this guy up, big time. Gruden was always known as a quarterback guru, and he has not disappointed during the development of Cousins. When Cousins first earned a few snaps at the NFL level, he was a downfield gunslinger who had no intention of sustaining long, productive drives. It was all or nothing.

Now, a few years later, Cousins manages the huddle well, controls clock and tempo, gets rid of the ball quickly and decisively, delivers on time to a difficult array of routes and mixes short and long passes beautifully. It's extremely hard for an opposing defense to settle in against the 2016 version of Kirk Cousins. He and Gruden deserve all the credit in the world. I was really blown away by Cousins this year. Another spot-on selection by fantasy sports legend, Steve Summer

10. Andrew Luck, Colts:  It was a bounce-back statistical season for Luck, but once again he failed miserably in the must-win games. This will likely be the story of his career. Big name. Lot of talent. Short of expectations. 

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9. Marcus Mariota, Titans:  There are approximately 50 quarterbacks who can move the chains pretty well in the middle of the field. Less than 10 are truly successful in the redzone. Marcus Mariota is the best redzone quarterback in the world. Did you know that Mariota began his career with 30 touchdowns in the redzone...without throwing a single interception? Do you know how impossible that is, playing on a Titans team that does not have a No. 1 receiver?

You can come back at me with whatever stats you want; I don't care. I want my team scoring in the redzone. I do NOT want my team turning the ball over in the redzone. Marcus Mariota is EXACTLY my kind of quarterback. His success is even more astonishing when you consider the lack of receiving talent on his team. The Titans have been a crappy team for quite some time. Mariota has single-handedly turned his franchise around. Such a shame to see him go off on that cart...

8. Russell Wilson, Seahawks:  Worst I've ever seen him play this season. If he doesn't recommit to the run, his career may continue trending in the wrong direction. And yet, the Seahawks still win, and we know Russ has the magic factor. He's a crunch-time player. 

7. Cam Newton, Panthers:  Perhaps the most physically gifted quarterback, but we know he's a headcase. Gets down on his teammates when things aren't going well. He should be a top 5 QB, but his attitude has been porous this season, and the Panthers haven't played well as a whole. 

6. Derek Carr, Raiders:  Shows clear and convincing improvement every single year. 28 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions this season! Super impressive.

He has a loose arm, can make all the throws and is a fun guy to watch. The sky is the limit. I'm sick to my stomach for Raiders fans. I can't even imagine how they feel. Oh wait, I'm a Jets fan. My life is Hell. 

5. Drew Brees, Saints:  Do I really need to say anything? Just keeps on doing what he does. 

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4. Matt Ryan, Falcons:  Has reached a new level this season. In my opinion it's a three-horse race for MVP:  Ryan, Elliott and Prescott, but I know Brady is going to steal some votes. When you miss 4 games because you cheated, you shouldn't be in contention with guys who have suited up and played spectacularly all year. 

3. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

1. Tom Brady, Patriots:  Ugh. Painful. 

Bring on the complaints...

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Late-Night Boredom Reviews: 10 Cloverfield Lane and Bad Moms

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Before we jump into the ring for Round 2 of "Late-Night Boredom Reviews," I'd like to thank all of you who took the time to send complimentary texts and emails about Volume I. I promise to keep the movie reviews coming, as requested. 

In addition, as we move forward, I'll keep Power Rankings at the bottom of each post. Hopefully I'll be able to recommend some films worth your time. 

No superhero films from me...I'm sorry. 


10 CLOVERFIELD LANE (2016)

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10 Cloverfield Lane is a film I wanted to see since the release of its initial trailer because the mystery elements of the plot were instantaneously intriguing. Everyone likes twists and big reveals, right? 

The immediate questions that popped to mind were why is Howard (an unpredictable John Goodman) keeping Michelle (Mary Elizabeth Winstead, in "Final Girl" mode) and Emmett (a better-than-usual John Gallagher Jr.) captive? And is there really a catastrophically apocalyptic event going on outside Howard's secluded, rural "safe house"?

10 Cloverfield Lane answers those essential questions, but takes its time getting there. I really wanted to like this movie going in, so I have to keep those tilted preconceptions in mind as I review the film. Little-known director Dan Trachtenberg -- who received a major opportunity here from powerful producer J.J. Abrams -- does a nice job perpetuating the thought, what exactly is going on? throughout the proceedings, but I'm not sure his film lives up to its 90% score on Rotten Tomatoes. I saw this movie a couple of months ago, and the question that continues to nag me is do I want to watch 10 Cloverfield Lane again?

And at this point, I'm pretty sure the answer is no. The underlying problem with screenwriters Josh Campbell and Matthew Steucken's setup is that we're constantly wondering about what's going on outside of Howard's home, instead of being engaged by what's going on inside. That doesn't make for a good ratio when 95 percent of the plot takes place inside.

Goodman keeps us guessing in his showy role -- is he a misunderstood hero who saved two young people from certain death, or a twisted sicko in desperate need of some company? -- and Winstead and Gallagher are both good, but I didn't particularly care for the screenplay or its pacing.

Some of its saving graces are sort-of subtle nods to Stephen King's Misery and The Shining, Alfred Hitchcock's uber-famous Psycho and horror-fan favorite, Saw. Abrams is a seasoned industry vet with vast and detailed knowledge of the horror/suspense genre and it shows, especially in the first third of the film, when three of those references take place.

All aspects considered, 10 Cloverfield Lane has an interesting premise and a few surprises, but Tasha Robinson's analysis of its subtext is more consistently interesting than the film itself.

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING:  7 out of 10 **



BAD MOMS (2016)

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Bad Moms was peddled by an unusual marketing campaign; one quite contrary to the film's defining tenets. Yes, at one point Amy (Mila Kunis) convinces Carla (Kathryn Hahn) and Kiki (Kristen Bell) to be "bad moms" with her, but they never actually deliver on that pact. Even the stuck-up bitches, Gwendolyn (Christina Applegate) and Stacy (Jada Pinkett Smith), are good moms in this movie. The only one who teeters on unfit is Carla, and even she has her merits as a funny, foul-mouthed single mom who doesn't take shit from anyone. 

So, when you watch Bad Moms, you'll quickly begin to realize that it's really about good moms who need an occasional break from the frenzy. Working full-time jobs, rushing the kids to school, keeping everyone fed and wasting precious time at painful PTA meetings -- they may sound like cliches, but directors Jon Lucas and Scott Moore put them up on the big screen, and they scare the shit out of us. 

How do moms do all of this, and somehow manage to keep it together? It truly is amazing. Sure we live in an evolving American society where stay-at-home dads are popping up here and there, but let's be real -- mom is still carrying the load in most families. Forget about TV and movies; how many stay-at-home dads do you personally know? My grand total is zero. 

Bad Moms is a really good movie with many strengths, but its greatest strength is undoubtedly its cast: Kunis is so natural and likable in the everywoman lead; Bell is adorable as a cheerily submissive and sheltered mother (it's funny how she has transitioned from sexy parts in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Couples Retreat and Burlesque to more wholesome roles since becoming a mom in real life); Hahn is as over-the-top and hilarious as ever, and David Walton (as Mike, Amy's soon-to-be ex-husband) and Jay Hernandez (as Jessie, a widower and her refreshing new love interest) are both effective in the movie's only significant male roles. 

Kunis, Bell and Hayn have wonderful chemistry and comedic timing as a trio, and Walton and Hernandez are both good fits for Kunis. Walton plays a total douchebag who still manages to be funny at times, and we really root for Kunis and Hernandez when the romantic sparks begin to fly. Any real woman would say Jessie is too good to be true, but we want Amy to have him because her home life is such a friggin' whirlwind. This woman needs to exhale. 

As the movie progressed and I found myself continuing to agree with most of the screenwriting decisions, I decided to research the scribes. Boy was I surprised to find that directors Lucas and Moore also wrote their material. 

Why is that surprising? Because these are the guys who wrote The Hangover

Not exactly who you were expecting, right? Bad Moms is extremely fair to women and astutely understanding of their unequal burdens as modern-day mothers; whereas The Hangover's primary female characters are a prostitute (Heather Graham) and a stone-cold bitch (Rachael Harris). Upon The Hangover's release and subsequent smash status, its detractors pounced on its raging misogyny

Are Lucas and Moore trying to "write" past wrongs here? Or are they simply more versatile and open-minded than haters initially thought?

I think the latter. Check out Bad Moms -- it's a nice movie for both women and men, with some laughs and a universally relatable message. The interview sequence during the closing credits is particularly touching. Make sure you watch all the way to the end.

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING:  9 out of 10 **

Late-Night Boredom's Completed Rankings:

1. Bad Moms (9/10)
2. The Shallows (7.5/10)
3. The Night Before (7/10)
4. 10 Cloverfield Lane (7/10)
5. The Walk (7/10)

Reviews to Come...

Nerve
The Hateful Eight
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
How to Be Single
Basquiat
Deadpool
A Perfect Murder
The Revenant
Joy
And more...

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

NBA Top 100 Players: Five Megastars. Only One Can Be Number One.

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Nearly every offseason, both Sports Illustrated and ESPN release their controversial NBA top 100 players lists (though the latter went with the top 100 of all time this year). More often than not, these lists are teetering on horrendous. ESPN is usually too obsessed with ridiculous metrics, and Sports Illustrated had a particularly rough offseason this year. 

So, as usual, it's my turn to clean up their collective messes. Some important notes before we get started:

1. I'm only going to include short blurbs for rankings that may be considered unorthodox, or require some specific sort of explanation. 

2. My abbreviated ranking system keeps the following in mind: 

(A) Offense is rarer than defense. (B) Can this player carry a team under playoff-type pressure? (C) Role players on top teams are glorified, but they're still just role players. (D) Teams cannot win in the postseason without stars who create for themselves and their teammates. (E) Last season's actual production is more important than this year's projections, but we still have to project a little (obviously in the case of impact rookies). (F) Durability is an invaluable commodity. 

3. Later in the week, I'm going to extend this post to the top 200 players. That should provide some more context. All right, let's go...

100. Marvin Williams, F, Charlotte Hornets (SI: 65)
99. Jarrett Jack, PG, Atlanta Hawks (SI: Unranked)

Jack is an un-flashy veteran coming off a major surgery, but did you know he was 8th in the NBA in assists per game last season (prior to injury)? We know he's always been a crafty one-on-one scorer, but he's also developed his distribution over the years. He's a mentally-tough player, and I respect his ability to hit big shots. 

98. Marcus Morris, F, Detroit Pistons (SI: Unranked)
97. Dennis Schroder, PG, Atlanta Hawks (SI: Unranked)
96. Avery Bradley, G, Boston Celtics (SI: 72)
95. George Hill, PG, Utah Jazz (SI: 56)

As you can see, Sports Illustrated severely overrated Hill. He's a smart, solid professional basketball player, but his lack of explosiveness makes him a liability as a starter at the most competitive position in the sport. His lack of foot speed makes him a weak penetrator, and you have to break down the opposing D to be truly successful in the NBA. Hill is just a nice player; he's not a near top 50 guy. 

94. Tyreke Evans, G/F, New Orleans Pelicans (SI: Unranked)
93. Zach LaVine, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
92. Markieff Morris, PF, Washington Wizards (SI: Unranked)
91. Thaddeus Young, F, Indiana Pacers (SI: 66)
90. Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets (SI: 87, we almost agreed on this one)
89. Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings (SI: Unranked)

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88. Enes Kanter, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 88, wow!)
87. Tristan Thompson, C, Cleveland Cavs (SI: 52)

Remember what I said about the glorification of role players on high-quality teams? Need I say more right now? Nevertheless, I will. I actually really like Tristan -- I would certainly welcome him with open arms to my Nets or Knicks -- but he's essentially just a coordinated finisher and offensive rebounder. He doesn't work nearly as hard in the regular season as he does in the playoffs. You can't be the 52nd best player in the NBA, simply because you rebound well in a handful of higher-leverage games. 

86. Steven Adams, C, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 40!!!)

This SI ranking is bordering on insanity. Do you remember anyone gushing about Steven Adams during the regular season? No, he was just a solid big splitting minutes with Serge Ibaka and the aforementioned Enes Kanter. He contributes nicely during the postseason, so SI skyrockets him into the top 40? He's just a tough guy who is improving his finishing around the cup. Steven Adams is not an electric player. In the top 40 we should be talking about primetime guys. 

85. Chandler Parsons, SF, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 51)
84. Deron Williams, PG, Dallas Mavericks (SI: Unranked)

I hate D-Will because of his shitty attitude when he played for my Nets, but the fact remains that he's a talented all-around point guard who can penetrate, knock down mid-range jumpers and treys, dish with the best of 'em and defend well when he wants to. The problems are keeping him healthy and happy. Easier said than done. 

83. Jamal Crawford, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: Unranked)

You gotta be kidding me, Sports Illustrated! Cody Zeller (94), Mason Plumlee (93) and Bismack Biyombo (91) are on your list, but the greatest bench player of his generation is not? "J-Crossover" is a jaw-dropping solo offensive performer who leaves "lingerie on the deck," as the hilarious announcer and ex-coach Bill Raftery would say. That means he fakes defenders out of their clothes. Jamal is durable and dependable, and he can carry your offense through periods of stagnation. Seriously...Bismack F***in Biyombo?!!

82. Harrison Barnes, SF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: Unranked)
81. DeMarre Carroll, SF, Toronto Raptors (SI: 73)
80. Jabari Parker, F, Milwaukee Bucks
79. Kyle Korver, SF, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 70)

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78. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Detroit Pistons (SI: Unranked)

A young, versatile performer settling into his niche on a quality team in the midst of successful development. If they can survive temporarily without Reggie Jackson, the Pistons will further their collective improvement under Stan Van Gundy, and Kentavious will continue to knock down jumpers from all distances while providing useful length and athleticism for his position. 

77. Kent Bazemore, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 90)
76. Jeremy Lin, PG, Brooklyn Nets (SI: Unranked)

Lin was one of the most valuable players on an overachieving Hornets team last season, and now he's in Brooklyn to play second fiddle to Brook Lopez. If he stays healthy, Lin will post career bests across the board, with the exception being that astonishing run of "Linsanity" with the Knicks. He's a smart player who can penetrate and shoot, while always playing with a ton of passion. Brooklyn's fanbase is certainly going to love him. 

75. Tony Parker, PG, San Antonio Spurs (SI: Unranked)

Clint Capela (79) and Nikola Jokic (78) are in SI's top 80, and Tony Parker isn't on their list at all. I'm going to stop this blurb right here, before I have a coronary. 

74. Serge Ibaka, PF/C, Orlando Magic (SI: 42)

Another glorified role player. SI absolutely loves bigs and role players, so it makes sense to see Serge at 42 on their ridiculous list. He's a good mid-range shooter who has stretched beyond the three-point arc, but he's never developed a back-to-the-basket game or all-around offensive repertoire. His defense is overrated because he's a flashy shotblocker. He disappears for stretches of games and weeks of seasons. He'll help the Magic, but he's not a top 50 player. 

73. Evan Fournier, SG, Orlando Magic (SI: 95)
72. Monta Ellis, SG, Indiana Pacers (SI: Unranked)

Exactly the type of player SI doesn't like: A veteran guard with plenty of postseason experience who can create off the dribble for himself and others. A crunchtime player who has the balls to make big shots. A baller with basketball in his blood. 

71. Dwight Howard, C, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 34!!!)

I've always been a Dwight defender, but he can barely get up and down the court these days! He's taken a beating in the paint for many years now. His back, flexibility and athleticism simply aren't what they used to be. He'll defend and rebound when he's physically capable of doing so, which will be around half of the time. That's not the 34th best player in the NBA. 

70. Brandon Knight, PG, Phoenix Suns (SI: 98)
69. Ryan Anderson, PF, Houston Rockets (SI: 89)
68. Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz (SI: 33!!!! I already discussed this travesty in another post.)
67. Eric Gordon, SG
66. Ben Simmons, G/F, Philadelphia 76ers (SI: Unranked)

We've all heard the hype that suggests he can become a top 10 all-around player, so I figured this was a nice, conservative projection based on his massive upside. His injury quickly knocked him out of top 50 consideration. Gotta love his size, athleticism, ball skills and versatility, though. 

65. J.J. Redick, SG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 59)
64. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Denver Nuggets (SI: Unranked)

Man, SI hates guards. Mudiay already flashed the ability to stuff the stat sheet as a rookie, he just needs to cut down on his turnovers. Denver is trending in the right direction, and Mudiay is positioned to grow alongside his young teammates Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic (yes, I know I made fun of him before, but you'll see him in my top 200 later on this week). 

63. Derrick Rose, PG, New York Knicks (SI: Unranked)

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62. Rudy Gay, SF, Sacramento Kings (SI: 80)
61. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: 92)
60. Jordan Clarkson, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (SI: Unranked???)

Huh? A young, high-upside, super athletic combo guard who has already displayed consistent NBA productivity isn't a top 100 guy? I guess he needs to block more shots or be a limited role player. 

59. Greg Monroe, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (SI: 63)
58. Nicolas Batum, SG/SF, Charlotte Hornets (SI: 43)
57. Tobias Harris, F, Detroit Pistons (SI: 77)
56. Jae Crowder, SF, Boston Celtics (SI: 53)
55. Derrick Favors, PF, Utah Jazz (SI: 28???)

When did Derrick Favors become an international superstar? When the Jazz made their breakout playoff run? No, neither of those things ever happened. He's a solid all-around professional power forward; not the 28th best player in the game. Come on, now. I promise you either Rob Mahoney or Ben Golliver is a Jazz fan. Or both. 

54. Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 71)
53. Devin Booker, G/F, Phoenix Suns

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52. Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat (SI: 61)
51. Victor Oladipo, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 74)
50. Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic (SI: 75)
49. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 22)

He's coming off injury and was already slow, lumbering and consistently overvalued. A savvy basketball player with an overrated skillset, Marc is right where he belongs at 49. Good defender, good passer, not a franchise player for an upper-echelon organization. 

48. Zach Randolph, PF, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 64)
47. Jeff Teague, PG, Indiana Pacers (SI: 57)
46. Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (SI: 39)
45. Eric Bledsoe, G, Phoenix Suns (SI: 49)
44. Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons (SI: 54)
43. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, New York Knicks (SI: 68)

When Steve Summer thinks I'm overrating someone, I'm obligated to explain: What more can you possibly want from a second-year player? Am I allowed to explain by asking a question? Porzingis is a friggin' giant with a ridiculous wingspan who can score, block shots and fit perfectly within an unselfish, team-oriented offensive system. He's the ideal pick-and-pop big -- who is gonna contest his silky, mid-range jumper with an Empire State Building release? Sky's the limit for this kid...corny pun intended. 

42. Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavs (SI: 30)
41. Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (SI: 58)

Punished for constantly getting injured. Ya gotta stay on the court. Talent wise, he's probably closer to the top 30. 

40. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 20)

My loyal readers know I absolutely despise DeAndre and his incessant hype, but I have to be unbiased here. I'm rewarding him for his durability, rebounding and shotblocking. I don't value role players highly on lists like these; but he's one of the better ones. 

39. Pau Gasol, C, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 41)
38. Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors (SI: 62)

One of my most improved players last season. Jonas' value was abundantly clear when he went down during the Raptors' ugly, opening-round playoff series against the Pacers. When he was on the floor, the Pacers were unable to get all the way to the rim, and it seemed impossible for them to come up with an offensive rebound. Jonas is humongous, coordinated, tough and diligent. He's uber-strong on the low block, and has a surprisingly nice touch at the foul line. Only reasons his numbers never balloon are hogs Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Keep the big fella involved!

37. Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 67) 

We all knew about his showstopping athleticism coming out of college, but he's already a more well-rounded scorer than I thought he'd be. Wiggins averaged 20.7 points per game at age 20, ahead of proven studs like John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki and LaMarcus Aldridge. Gotta think Thibs is gonna make him even better. 

36. Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, Utah Jazz (SI: 27)
35. DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors (SI: 46)

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34. Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 26)
33. Giannis Antetokounmpo, G/F, Milwaukee Bucks
32. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: 31)
31. Al Horford, C, Boston Celtics (SI: 18)

Notice anything about Bismack Biyombo, Thaddeus Young, Chandler Parsons, Serge Ibaka, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley and now Horford? SI got overexcited about players who got paid this offseason, or were involved in high-profile trades. It's a predictable psychological phenomenon -- the NBA offseason garners a significant amount of media attention, so these names seep into the collective unconscious of the writers, thus artificially inflating their values in lists like these. Horford is a technically-sound all-around basketball player, but there were many nights in Atlanta where you couldn't tell if he was better or more valuable than Jeff Teague, Kent Bazemore or Kyle Korver. His impact is surprisingly elusive at times. 

30. Danilo Gallinari, SF, Denver Nuggets (SI: 47)

A truly versatile scorer is the rarest commodity in professional basketball. Gallo can dribble drive left and right, pull-up, step-back, fade-away, pump-fake, draw contact, hit middies and treys. He's a go-to scorer, but he has to stay healthy. 

29. C.J. McCollum, SG, Portland Trail Blazers (SI: 50)

I don't think I've ever seen an NBA player complete a full transformation faster than C.J. McCollum. When he first came into the league he was overrated, overmatched and a little out of shape. He didn't know if he was a 2 or a 1, and neither did the Blazers. The result was an awkward player who was producing a net negative value rating. However, everything changed instantaneously during the opening round of the 2014-15 playoffs. The LaMarcus Aldridge/Nicolas Batum/Wesley Matthews era was coming to an unceremonious end during a first round beating at the hands of the higher-class Spurs, but one Blazer refused to go quietly: He was, of course, McCollum. In that series, C.J. dedicated himself to the "attack" message that Terry Stotts is always preaching, and the former's confidence has remained intact since. McCollum is now a lightning-quick, hyper-aggressive, dangerous volume scorer who keeps opposing defenders on their heels alongside Damian Lillard. Both Portland guards have blazing releases.

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28. Isaiah Thomas, PG, Boston Celtics (SI: 45)
27. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls (SI: 16)
26. Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat
25. Dwyane Wade, SG, Chicago Bulls (SI: 32)

Within the organization, the Bulls are calling it "Jimmy Butler's team," but I still think that under duress, D-Wade will carry you more effectively than Butler can. Wade was, once again, one of the premier offensive focal points last postseason. His pacing, control and crunchtime one-on-one prowess place him comfortably among the all-time greats. He's still a fantastic all-around player, and his big-game experience is invaluable. 

24. Draymond Green, F/C, Golden State Warriors (SI: 13)
23. Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons (SI: 29)
22. Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets (SI: 38)

People always say I'm a "homer" when it comes to my Brook Lopez rankings, but I'm as unbiased as they come. When the Mets suck, I let everybody know about it, and when the Jets suck, I sing it to the world. So when I tell you that Brook Lopez is the 22nd best player in the world, rest assured you can believe me. 

Behind megastars like Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson, Lopez is one of the best offensive centers I've ever seen. He's huge but has an unbelievably soft touch, which makes him a high-percentage finisher around the cup, as well as one of the elite mid-range shooters at his position. Brook is also extremely coordinated, and when you consider the headaches that bigs like Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond cause at the foul line, the former's 75-82% free throw shooting becomes invaluable. Brook's also a drastically underrated shot blocker.

21. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 11)

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20. Paul Millsap, F/C, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 15)
19. John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards (SI: 17)
18. Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors (SI: 14)
17. Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors (SI: 19)
16. Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
15. Carmelo Anthony, F, New York Knicks (SI: 24)
14. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Sacramento Kings (SI: 12)

I punished him for consistent disciplinary issues, as well as his inability to elevate the collective play of his surrounding cast. Cousins is an all-world, all-around talent who is limited by his childish behavior and lack of professionalism. 

13. Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans (SI: 8)

Davis is easier to get along with than Cousins, but has some similar issues: (1) Gets down on himself and teammates when things aren't going well. (2) Doesn't make his teammates any better. (3) Hasn't yet proven to be a go-to guy on a team to be reckoned with. Also, rather obviously, he's injury-prone. 

12. Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 10)
11. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 23)

Not sure I've ever seen anyone quite like this kid -- he's a mentally and physically stronger version of Anthony Davis, with a more electric two-way repertoire. There's no question he'll end up one of the top 10 players in the universe; likely top 5. Just need to see the Wolves create a winning culture, first. 

10. Paul George, F, Indiana Pacers (SI: 9)
9. Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (SI: 8)
8. Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (SI: 25)

I've had so many arguments about Kyrie that I'm getting a bit sick of it, but I'll explain myself again briefly: How many players in the world can consistently get all the way to the rim with their right or left, draw fouls, post-up, pull-up, hit mid-range shots with ease, fade-aways and hit threes? The answer is LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard and last but not least, Kyrie Irving. Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook don't feature post-ups. That's how rare Kyrie is -- he's the perfect offensive machine. Not to mention that he has balls of steel and is an immensely entertaining player to watch. Kyrie's the man; you can't convince me otherwise. That SI ranking is a f--king tragedy. Open your eyes! Use common sense! Forget the absurd metrics. 

7. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 6)

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6. Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 4)
5. James Harden, G/F, Houston Rockets (SI: 7)
4. Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 5)
3. Kevin Durant, SF, Golden State Warriors (SI: 2)
2. Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors (SI: 3)

Splitting hairs between KD and Steph. I'm giving Steph the temporary nod because he was still the most dominant regular-season player for the second-straight year. Just needs to stop sucking in the NBA Finals.

1. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers: There is only one King. 

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

2016-17 NBA Preseason Predictions: The Warriors Have Kevin Durant. Should We Just Cancel the Season?

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Between the simultaneous excitement of the MLB playoffs and NFL regular season, it's sometimes difficult for me to find the inspiration to write about the NBA this time of year. Unfortunately, my Mets were bounced quickly so I'm not as invested in the postseason. That leads us to this (comments will be short; I'll let the letter grades do the talking):

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

1. Toronto Raptors - 2015-16 record: 56-26; 2016-17 projected record: 56-26
Starting five: A-, Bench: B-, Head Coach: B-
Rank in East: 2nd, Overall: 8th

I like the affordable pick-up of PF Jared Sullinger. He should outperform his contract, and there's no pressure on him playing alongside Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas. "Big V" showed some real solid improvement last season, and he should continue to deliver this year. 

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2. Boston Celtics - 2015-16 record: 48-34; 2016-17 projected record: 50-32
Starting five: B+, Bench: B-, Head Coach: A-
Rank in East: 3rd, Overall: 9th

Al Horford will improve this team on both ends of the floor. Not enough to compete for a title, though. 

3. New York Knicks - 2015-16 record: 32-50; 2016-17 projected record: 42-40
Starting five: B, Bench: C, Head Coach: B
Rank in East: 8th, Overall: 20th

Phil Jackson did what he had to do -- without much in the way of trade assets, he acquired players that other teams are hesitant about, due to on or off-court issues; or in one case, both. If Derrick Rose is able to walk away from his serious legal problems without a massive suspension, he should be the 3rd scorer the Knicks are looking for next to Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. Head coach Jeff Hornacek is definitely an upgrade over both Derek Fisher and stopgap Kurt Rambis. This team should squeak into a back-end playoff spot, but Rose, Brandon Jennings and Joakim Noah are always at risk of injury. 

4. Brooklyn Nets - 2015-16 record: 21-61; 2016-17 projected record: 26-56
Starting five: D, Bench: B-, Head Coach: B
Rank in East: 14th, Overall: 28th

There isn't much talent on this roster, but my Nets will play right thanks to new head coach Kenny Atkinson and GM Sean Marks. The Nets will play unselfishly, move the ball and do everything they can to outwork their opponents on a nightly basis. This organization is headed in the right direction; they simply don't have the players right now. 

5. Philadelphia 76ers - 2015-16 record: 10-72; 2016-17 projected record: 16-66
Starting five: D+, Bench: D, Head Coach: D+
Rank in East: 15th, Overall: 30th

I could go on for days about this discombobulated franchise. I'll dedicate a separate column to that. For now, I'll just say that the Ben Simmons injury was a killer. No hope, yet. 

Central Division

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - 2015-16 record: 57-25; 2016-17 projected record: 57-25
Starting five: A, Bench: C+, Coach: B+
Rank in East: 1st, Overall: 4th

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My only concern is their bench -- it looks a little thin. In the end, they just have to keep LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love healthy. It's their conference to win or lose. They pretty much control their own destiny. 

2. Detroit Pistons - 2015-16 record: 44-38; 2016-17 projected record: 46-36
Starting five: B, Bench: B-, Head Coach: A
Rank in East: 5th, Overall: 11th

Ouch. The injury to Reggie Jackson stings. I was high on this team throughout the offseason. Luckily for the Pistons and their fans, Stan Van Gundy is a savvy all-around basketball mind, and he snatched Ish Smith for below his true market value. He will be a relatively productive replacement in the meantime. Having Tobias Harris for an entire season will certainly help, and I've always liked both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris. Stanley Johnson is a tough kid, as well. 

3. Indiana Pacers - 2015-16 record: 45-37; 2016-17 projected record: 45-37
Starting five: B+, Bench: B, Head Coach: C+
Rank in East: 6th, Overall: 12th

Personnel upgrades in Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson and Thaddeus Young, accompanied by a head coaching downgrade from Frank Vogel to Nate McMillan. Larry Bird should have given Vogel another shot with this new talent pool. 

4. Chicago Bulls - 2015-16 record: 42-40; 2016-17 projected record: 35-47
Starting five: B, Bench: C+, Head Coach: D
Rank in East: 11th, Overall: 25th

Fred Hoiberg is one of the worst head coaches in the NBA, and a starting lineup featuring both Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade doesn't have enough perimeter shooting in today's trey-happy league. 

5. Milwaukee Bucks - 2015-16 record: 33-49; 2016-17 projected record: 29-53
Starting five: D+, Bench: B+, Head Coach: C+
Rank in East: 13th, Overall: 27th

This club can't survive the devastating injury to Khris Middleton. They simply need his perimeter shooting and all-around scoring. Head coach Jason Kidd alienates his players by altering his rotation on a nightly basis, and key pieces Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams are already in limbo. Still can't believe they traded their primary scorer, Brandon Knight, for Carter-Williams a couple years back. Head-scratching move at the deadline. 

Southeast Division

1. Orlando Magic - 2015-16 record: 35-47; 2016-17 projected record: 47-35
Starting five: B-, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A
Rank in East: 4th, Overall: 10th

Serge Ibaka has been getting all of the offseason hype, but he's not the sole reason why the Magic are going to make "the leap" this season. It's really a combination of things: The obvious coaching upgrade to Frank Vogel, the combined additions of Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo, D.J. Augustin and Jeff Green, as well as the expected development of both Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja. This is a deep team with a lot of similar players, so it will be Vogel's job to manage the minutes correctly. I think he can do it. 

2. Washington Wizards - 2015-16 record: 41-41; 2016-17 projected record: 43-39
Starting five: B, Bench: B-, Head Coach: C-
Rank in East: 7th, Overall: 19th 

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It's very simple for this team: They have to keep John Wall and Bradley Beal healthy, and Markieff Morris out of trouble. I always like when a team sneakily picks up Marcus Thornton for a bench spark. I don't know what to say about the hiring of Scott Brooks, though. The guy is literally a mindless robot

3. Charlotte Hornets - 2015-16 record: 48-34; 2016-17 projected record: 41-41
Starting five: C+, Bench: B-, Head Coach: A-
Rank in East: 9th, Overall: 21st

The costly losses of Jeremy Lin, Al Jefferson and Courtney Lee bring the Hornets down a notch. Steve Clifford is an underrated head coach, though. He'll keep them in the back-end playoff race with the Wizards, Knicks, Hawks and Bulls. 

4. Atlanta Hawks - 2015-16 record: 48-34, 2016-17 projected record: 38-44
Starting five: C+, Bench: C+, Head Coach: B+
Rank in East: 10th, Overall: 24th

Jeff Teague downgraded to Dennis Schroder and Al Horford downgraded to Dwight Howard. This organization is no longer heading in the right direction. 

5. Miami Heat - 2015-16 record: 48-34, 2016-17 projected record: 31-51
Starting five: D+, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A
Rank in East: 12th, Overall: 26th

Gone are productive vets Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. What's left isn't a very good team. Erik Spoelstra is their second-most valuable asset behind Hassan Whiteside

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Pacific Division

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1. Golden State Warriors - 2015-16 record: 73-9; 2016-17 projected record: 68-14
Starting five: A+, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A-
Rank in West: 1st, Overall: 1st

The Golden State Warriors now have Kevin Durant. Goodbye. 

2. Los Angeles Clippers - 2015-16 record: 53-29; 2016-17 projected record: 63-19
Starting five: A-, Bench: A-, Head Coach: A
Rank in West: 2nd, Overall: 2nd

They need to keep Chris Paul and Blake Griffin healthy, all the way through the playoffs. I like that Doc Rivers keeps fighting off the word "rebuild." The Clips have the talent...they just need to get lucky for once. 

3. Sacramento Kings - 2015-16 record: 33-49; 2016-17 projected record: 43-39
Starting five: B-, Bench: B, Head Coach: A
Rank in West: 7th, Overall: 13th

Finally, the dysfunctional Kings franchise did a few things that make logical sense! They canned toxic George Karl and hired uber-underrated Dave Joerger, and stabilized their shooting guard position with the un-flashy acquisition of Arron Afflalo. I think Joerger can clean up the mess in Sacramento. Furthermore, it's always nice to have talent like DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and even Darren Collison

4. Phoenix Suns - 2015-16 record: 23-59; 2016-17 projected record: 41-41
Starting five: B-, Bench: B+, Head Coach: B-
Rank in West: 9th, Overall: 15th

It's abundantly clear that young head coach Earl Watson loves his job and players. He's probably the most enthusiastic coach in the league at the moment. I like his decision to ask Brandon Knight to carry his second unit, and clearly Devin Booker is a breakout player to watch with the starters. Talk about a mature kid, both on and off the court. Alex Len should also emerge a bit more this season, as Tyson Chandler fades away toward eventual retirement. This is a spunky little team. I think they'll compete for a back-end playoff spot. 

5. Los Angeles Lakers - 2015-16 record: 17-65; 2016-17 projected record: 39-43
Starting five: B-, Bench: C+, Head Coach: A-
Rank in West: 12th, Overall: 18th

The most valuable quality that new head coach Luke Walton brings is the necessary ability to instill confidence in his players. He's going to pump these young kids full of unfounded swag. I've never been a D'Angelo Russell fan, but he did flash some ability to stuff the stat sheet during the second half of the 2015-16 campaign; I've always liked Jordan Clarkson, whereas Julius Randle is in the same boat with Russell; rookie Brandon Ingram needs to be a producer for this second unit, and I think Timofey Mozgov is going to surprise the haters out there. If everything breaks exactly right, the Lakers might stay in the playoff hunt with the Kings, Nuggets, Suns, Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies. 

Southwest Division

1. San Antonio Spurs - 2015-16 record: 67-15; 2016-17 projected record: 62-20
Starting five: A-, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A+
Rank in West: 3rd, Overall: 3rd

Pau Gasol replaces Tim Duncan (thanks for a jaw-dropping career, Timmy!). Everything else is status quo in Pop's enviable organization. 

2. Dallas Mavericks - 2015-16 record: 42-40; 2016-17 projected record: 50-32
Starting five: B, Bench: B, Head Coach: A+
Rank in West: 6th, Overall: 7th

If Pop retired, Rick Carlisle would immediately ascend to the No. 1 spot on the coaches' chart. The guy just quietly goes about being a basketball genius. How did he make the playoffs in the West with a team that required key contributions from Salah Mejri and Raymond Felton? I'm quite confident that J.J. Barea was their best player at one point. Anyway, Warrior rejects Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut have been added to the Mavs mix, and I'm sure Carlisle will figure out the optimal ways to utilize them.  Wesley Matthews should be healthier and more consistently productive this season, and I like Dallas' young bench featuring the entertainingly energetic Justin Anderson, Dwight Powell and newly-acquired Seth Curry. This team isn't bad, and its record will end up even better than it should be. 

3. Houston Rockets - 2015-16 record: 41-41; 2016-17 projected record: 40-42
Starting five: B-, Bench: C+, Head Coach: A-
Rank in West: 11th, Overall: 17th

I like the additions of Mike D'Antoni, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, but how the hell is this team going to defend without Dwight Howard protecting the rim? Howard's clearly on the downside of his career, but the Rockets have little-to-no presence in the paint. They should be among the team leaders in scoring, but they'll be in the bottom five or 10 defensively. A postseason appearance will be a tough sell. 

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4. Memphis Grizzlies - 2015-16 record: 42-40; 2016-17 projected record: 39-43
Starting five: B, Bench: C+, Head Coach: C+
Rank in West: 13th, Overall: 22nd

Why any organization would willingly go from Dave Joerger to David Fizdale is beyond me. Joerger was one of the top overachievers in the game last season; he guided the beat-up and broken-down Grizz into the playoffs with Vince Carter and Matt Barnes leading the way. There's a title for someone who can do that: Miracle-worker. In other news, I'm just over this team. Marc Gasol has always been wildly overrated, Mike Conley hasn't been himself in recent seasons and Chandler Parsons is the Sam Bradford of the NBA: Looks good, sounds good, gets hurt all the time and never produces the way you think he will. I love my boy Zach Randolph, but I hope this team fails. 

5. New Orleans Pelicans - 2015-16 record: 30-52; 2016-17 projected record: 28-54
Starting five: C, Bench: C-, Head Coach: C
Rank in West: 15th, Overall: 29th

Anthony Davis is already banged up, Tyreke Evans has no timetable for return (as usual), Jrue Holiday has some serious family issues to attend to, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are gone, and Alvin Gentry got absolutely nothing out of this team last year. It's looking grim once again. 

Northwest Division

1. Portland Trail Blazers - 2015-16 record: 44-38; 2016-17 projected record: 53-29
Starting five: B+, Bench: B, Head Coach: A
Rank in West: 4th, Overall: 5th

I've said this before and I'll say it again: The Blazers are the mini-Warriors. Think about it. You have the young, talented, shot-happy backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum (their version of The Splash Brothers); Al-Farouq Aminu, the swingman who does a little bit of everything (Draymond), and a bunch of long, lanky, athletic hustlers who do whatever they can to help the team. For the Blazers that's Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis and Moe Harkless, and for the Warriors that's Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and used to be Leandro Barbosa. Both teams feature head coaches who encourage their guys to play without fear, the severely-underrated Terry Stotts and of course, Steve Kerr. The Blazers even picked up Evan Turner who, I promise you, is going to be used exactly like Iguodala. Copycatting is real. 

2. Minnesota Timberwolves - 2015-16 record: 29-53; 2016-17 projected record: 51-31
Starting five: B+, Bench: B, Head Coach: A
Rank in West: 5th, Overall: 6th

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I can't possibly fathom a coaching transition more influential than Sam Mitchell to Tom Thibodeau. Instead of developing his young, talented players, Mitchell was starting washed-up vets like Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince. He literally had no idea what he was doing (kind of like Todd Bowles for my Jets). With "Thibs" now at the helm, it's all very simple: The right guys are going to play, they will exert defensive effort and young players will reach their potential. I think it'll be a quick and impressive transition. 

3. Denver Nuggets - 2015-16 record: 33-49; 2016-17 projected record: 42-40
Starting five: B, Bench: B, Head Coach: B-
Rank in West: 8th, Overall: 14th

I haven't had anything nice to say about the Nuggets for a long, long time, but things finally appear to be looking up for them. Mike Malone was surprisingly ineffective his first year on the job, but he should be able to turn it around with established players like Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried, and rising contributors such as Emmanuel Mudiay, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris. Their talent pool has gradually expanded and they've been doing things the right way, so hopefully they'll be rewarded. It'll be a dogfight for the 8-seed. 

4. Oklahoma City Thunder - 2015-16 record: 55-27; 2016-17 projected record: 41-41
Starting five: A-, Bench: C-, Head Coach: B-
Rank in West: 10th, Overall: 16th

My gut tells me the Thunder will be better than my ranking system suggests. I have an inordinate amount of faith in Russell Westbrook, and I like OKC's bigs, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. However, their bench looks crappy, I wasn't particularly impressed by Billy Donovan in year one and I'm up in the air on Victor Oladipo. He has talent, but I question his effort. He may not mesh with Russ and his balls-to-the-wall style. This is a difficult team to gauge. 

5. Utah Jazz - 2015-16 record: 40-42; 2016-17 projected record: 34-48
Starting five: C+, Bench: B, Head Coach: B-
Rank in West: 14th, Overall: 23rd

A bunch of mediocre players playing for a mediocre coach, and they won't be able to overachieve without Gordon Hayward at 100 percent. 

THE POSTSEASON


Eastern Conference Finals:  Cleveland Cavs over Toronto Raptors, 4-2
Western Conference Finals:  Golden State Warriors over Los Angeles Clippers, 4-2

NBA FINALS: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS OVER CLEVELAND CAVS, 4-2

As always, all questions, comments and complaints are welcome. Thanks for reading!