Friday, May 15, 2020

Frascella's NFL Top 100, Part 10: The Dramatic Conclusion - It's Top 10 Time!

Photo Credit: Kansas City Chiefs


We made it. The Moment of Truth has finally arrived. Who are the top 10 players in the NFL? And who is the best football player in the world? It's time to get those answers.

A little housekeeping, though, first...

Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Donald, Travis Kelce and Nick Bosa led the way in Part 9 of my NFL Top 100 players series. Before we get to our dramatic conclusion, here's my ranking criteria, again:

1. 50% of the weight: "The Eye Test" - my own personal assessment of the player's talent, productivity and overall impact on winning. This has to come first, otherwise it wouldn't be my list. 

2. 20%: Stats. The raw numbers. 

3. 10%: Impact on winning in pressure situations and most importantly, the playoffs. 

4. 10%: The experts over at Pro Football Focus really know their stuff; they examine every single play of the NFL season, and I trust their detailed analyses. I'm giving 10% of the weight to their 2019 Top 101 NFL Players

5. 10%: Recent Pro Bowl selections. Thanks to the coaches, players and fans to their contributions, here. 

Please note: I use logic. The quarterback position is the most influential in all of professional sports, and I absolutely take that into account (PFF does not, in their rankings).

10. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals

-2019 Key Stat: 104 receptions (3rd-most)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #39 overall player

You're going to learn a lot about the way(s) I look at football as we move through my top 10. SPOILER ALERT: My top 10 includes seven quarterbacks and three wide receivers. No other positions. As a frame of reference, Pro Football Focus had 1 tight end, 2 interior defensive linemen, 3 quarterbacks, 1 offensive tackle, 1 offensive guard, 1 edge and 1 wide receiver.

I'm sorry, but...quarterbacks win championships. It's just the nature of the NFL. Yes, a strong offensive line can win you a lot of games (Saints, Eagles), but that's collective. Individual offensive linemen cannot be more valuable than high-quality NFL quarterbacks. Yes, a strong pass rush can get you very far (Giants and Broncos vs. Pats in past years), but again, that's collective. As an individual, T.J. Watt is not more valuable than Lamar Jackson...I'm sorry. (PFF had it that way, though.)

As for Hop, he's been in the pros seven seasons and the Texans made the playoffs four of those years. If you discount his rookie season for growing pains - Houston went 2-14 - he's carried his team to a postseason berth 66% of the time. Now, this says a lot, because Bill O'Brien may not actually know what he's doing. Throughout it all, Hop's been his steady rock and best player (alongside J.J. Watt)...and now he's gone.

So yeah - I didn't like the trade for Houston, at all - but there's one takeaway that hurt Hop on my list...apparently, his attitude sucks. The Texans still should have gotten back better than aging David Johnson; but the overarching circumstances are concerning, nonetheless. We're talking about one of the absolute best players in football, here. Was his attitude really that bad? Who knows. Maybe it's totally on O'Brien. Either way, Hop is competing with two other superstar receivers, here. There's been no question about their dispositions or coachability. Since we're splitting hairs, I'm giving the other two the slight edge. Also, we can't possibly know about his chemistry with Kyler Murray, yet.

9. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

-2019 Key Stat: 1,394 yards (2nd-most)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #25 overall player

A beast. A freak. Commands a double-team essentially all of the time. Can you knock Julio, on an individual level? No, not really. But his Falcons sucked this season. Everyone ahead of him on my list reached the postseason. And again, they are mostly quarterbacks. But if you wanna tell me Julio Jones is the best wide receiver in the NFL, I'm not gonna argue with ya. I'm personally going with the man at No. 5, but there are obvious merits to both sides of the debate. Julio's a monster. We all know this.

8. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

-2019 Key Stat: 27 TDs (5th-most)...in only 11 games!
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #62 overall player

This is where it gets fun. Drew Brees is 41 years old. Last season, he was much better than Tom Brady on paper. (Another SPOILER: Brady's up next on my list.) Brady is 42 years old. But what are we really talkin' about, here? With these two legends, is it really just about regular season stats?

Of course not. Context, baby. It's all about context. We're getting down to the nitty-gritty, now. It's all about the ability to win championships. Can you put the team on your back? Can you make the throws when it matters the most, deep into the postseason?

In this regard, Brees looked totally overmatched this postseason. He only threw for 208 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT vs. the Vikings - in a home game, on the turf, mind you - and most of it came in come-from-behind mode. Many people were saying - in gadget form - quarterback Taysom Hill was a more valuable player for the Saints in that particular playoff game (1-for-1 passing for 50 yards; led the team with 50 rushing yards and caught a TD). We all saw the hesitation in Brees' game. The Vikings' defensive speed had him totally disoriented, and the Saints were huge favorites in the game. So...honestly...can Brees still get it done when it matters?

We don't really know. But let's say I'm being unfair, only looking at one particular postseason game. How about the rest of Brees' postseason career, then? He's been in the playoffs nine times and only has one Super Bowl to show for it. He has 12 interceptions in 16 total postseason games - does that sound like the Brees you know during the regular season?

Like Mark Zuckerberg says to the Winklevi in The Social Network..."if you guys were the inventors of Facebook...you would have invented Facebook." Meaning, if Drew Brees were Tom Brady...he'd have more than one Super Bowl to show for his Hall of Fame career. But he doesn't. Brady has always been steadier and more lethal under the utmost pressure. Since Brees and Brady are both inching toward retirement, I gotta give Brady the nod for his balls. He's a Jordan-esque legend.

7. Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Bucs

-2019 Key Stat: 4,057 yds; 24/8 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Here he is...the greatest postseason player of all time, and probably the greatest football player of all time. Period.

But hey man, I'm realistic - if everything were based on the past, he'd be No. 1 on my list. Yet again, we have to consider the overall context. I mean, think about it...Tom Brady didn't make the Pro Bowl this past season. Can you imagine that? Reputation absolutely comes into play with Pro Bowl selections, and he still didn't make it (he'd made it the previous 10 seasons in a row). That means he's taken a step back. The raw numbers indicate the same conclusion.

And let's be fair to Brees...Brady didn't look good in his most recent playoff game, either. In fact, his numbers were eerily similar (209 yards, 1 pick). But if both guys are postseason question marks going forward, I'm going with Brady. He's proven himself, time and time again. Just think about what he accomplished in New England. We could just pencil them in for a division title every single year.

How about this past season? That was a weak Patriots' team. Gronk was already gone. Superstar Chandler Jones - No. 25 on my list - had already been gone a handful of years. The Sanu trade didn't work out (he looked finished). The Josh Gordon experiment didn't work out. N'Keal Harry wasn't ready, yet. Sony Michel didn't become the stud New England expected. How the hell did the Patriots go 12-4 and win the AFC East, again?

Of course, Belichick and a solid defense deserve their due credit. There's no denying that fact. But again...there's Brady presence. Can you really measure that? Can you imagine your confidence, if Tom Brady was your leader? It can't only be about the numbers when it comes to Tom Terrific. You have to dig a little deeper. You have to look a little harder.

When you read between the lines, the message screams, this guy is a BOSS!

6. Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

-2019 Key Stat: 4,265 total yds; 26/12 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #87 overall player

Probably the most difficult guy to rank in this top 10. I'll say the same thing about the next player on my list...what came first, the chicken or the egg? Meaning, who is better and more important, Hopkins or Watson? Who makes the other? Who gets the individual edge? I'm going with Watson for these two reasons: (1) He's a quarterback and Hop is a wide receiver; (2) There haven't been any questions about Watson's attitude or leadership. He's a top-notch clubhouse guy. But again, it's splitting hairs. You could say, Hopkins already flashed incredible ability before the Texans had Watson. That's a fair way of looking at it, too.

What about the next aspect of the debate...how do you rank Brees, Brady and Watson? Why does Watson get the very slight edge at this point?

Well, obviously, Brady and Brees are heading toward retirement. Watson's fresh legs certainly help. He can create a lot more when plays break down. So really, that goes without saying. But the key item is playoff performance. His Texans were down 16-0 to the Bills, and they looked to be dead in the water. Lifeless. But Deshaun put the team on his back, with everything on the line. Remember this epic play for the ages?

And that's exactly who Deshaun is. He's a battler. A grinder. He had a championship pedigree in college, as well. So let's just look at it simply...both Brees and Brady looked limited in their most recent playoff games, while Deshaun was able to dig his team out of the rubble. He also threw for 388 yards against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs, with two passing touchdowns, one rushing TD and no interceptions. So yeah, his playoff stock is looking pretty strong. When in doubt, go with the fresh legs.

5. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

-2019 Key Stat: 1,725 yards (#1) and 149 rec (#1)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #8 overall player

Like I mentioned with Deshaun and Hop...who comes first here, MT or Brees? At this point, within the Saints' offense, who is the guy?

To me, anyway you slice it, Michael Thomas is the best wide receiver in the world right now. He is THE guy. You wanna go to the numbers? He just caught 149 passes in a single season; that's the NFL record. Second place? Christian McCaffrey with 116 receptions - 33 behind the pace! Second-best receiver? Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins, both with 104 receptions - FORTY-FIVE behind Thomas...simply incredible! Talk about embarrassing the field. A man among men.

You wanna talk yards? Thomas had 1,725...331 more than second-place Julio Jones. Imagine crushing Julio like that? And he's pretty much a receiving god. Turning a god into a mere mortal, there.

You wanna go to The Eye Test? What can't Thomas do out there? His mechanics are flawless. The ball sticks to his hands. He always made himself available to Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Hill, etc. You gotta love that 6'3" target with long arms, too. MT's the whole package.

4. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

-2019 Key Stat: 113.3 QB rating/4,333 total yards (MVP)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #7 overall player

Perhaps the most controversial ranking of all?

There are two obvious camps out there: (1) Lamar Jackson is the reigning MVP of the NFL, and he demolished all (well, most) comers last season. He's the best and most electric football player in the world right now. Or (2) Jackson hasn't proven shit in the playoffs. His Ravens have flopped out in embarrassing fashion. Do we know who he really is, yet?

And there's merit to both sides, right? As usual, I land somewhere in the middle. I totally understand both perspectives. But, I mean, let's really look at those numbers:

2019/20 Regular season: 113.3 QB rating, 66.1% completion rate, 36/6 TD to INT
2019/20 Playoffs: 63.2 QB rating, 52.5% completion rate, 1/2 TD to INT

2018/19 Regular season: 84.5 QB rating, 58.2% completion rate
2018/19 Playoffs: 78.8 QB rating, 48.3% completion rate

Now, a Jackson lover will say...but those Playoff stats are based on single games! And to that I would say, well, yeah...because the Ravens lost. If he played better, maybe they would have won. And that's not being cold. That's just being real. That's the reality. Lamar didn't play well, and his team lost.

So yeah, I'll believe it when I see it. In my top three, they've already proven they can close the deal. You gotta deliver when it matters the most.

3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

-2019 Key Stat: 26/4 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #83 overall player

Speaking of controversy...Aaron Rodgers always seems to be in the middle of it. Whether it's off the field - is Rodgers a closeted gay man? - on the field (ignoring his coach's playcalls) or dealing with the front office, A-Rod 2.0 always seems to rub people the wrong way. He's not the easiest guy to get along with, apparently.

And yeah, that is an issue when it comes to leadership. In terms of leading the men around him in an effective way; sure, I would take Brees, Brady, Watson and Jackson over him (and numbers 1 and 2 on my list, forthcoming).

But the quarterback position isn't only about leadership. In actuality, in a cutthroat business like the NFL, it's really just about results. And how are these results?

-In 2011, Rodgers led his Packers to a Super Bowl victory and was named MVP of the game. He was also MVP of the regular season that year.

-He won MVP of the league again in 2014.

-He is the highest-rated quarterback in NFL history (102.4). As a frame of reference, Brees is 98.4, Brady is 97.0 and Peyton Manning is 96.5.

-He is an eight-time Pro Bowler.

-In the past two seasons, he threw a total of 1,166 passes...which resulted in only six interceptions! Like, what? That is unheard of. Talk about protecting the ball and protecting possessions. And of course, he just led the Pack to another NFC Championship Game.

So yeah, at 36 years old, Aaron Rodgers isn't really slowing down. He's an all-time great.

2. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

-2019 Key Stat: 106.3 QB rating; 31/5 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #3 overall player

Few, if any, have done more with less than Russell Wilson. For years, everything hinged on him. The Seahawks' offensive line was entirely unable to pass-block. Wilson was running for his life most of the time. And the Seahawks never had a bona fide No. 1 receiver. Russ was a magician making amazing things happen.

Now, things are much better with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. These are real receivers. These are legitimate options. And look at the difference:

-2016 (pre-weapons): 92.6 QB rating (worst of his career), 11 interceptions (most of his career)
-2019 (with weapons): 106.3 QB rating, 5 interceptions (least of his career)

So yeah, this shit matters. Russell Wilson is who he is, but ya gotta put some able bodies around him. Now that Seattle finally has - on the offensive side of the ball - Russ has established himself as the second-best all-around quarterback in the universe (or the best, if you ask Pro Football Focus).

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

-2019 Key Stat: 4,031 yds in 14 games; 26/5 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #4 overall player

I wish Twitter made it easier to go back and find old tweets.

I've been comparing Pat Mahomes to Michael Jordan since the 5th start of his NFL career (you remember this, vs. the Broncos?).

"The Magic" is undefinable. Actually, Russell Wilson has "The Magic", too. But not to this extent. Not to Patty Mahomes' extent.

He's special. He's one-of-a-kind...either you see it, or you don't. I'd say it's pretty hard to miss at this point. The worst I've ever seen him play was the Super Bowl...and he won Super Bowl MVP. LOL, right?

I'm pretty sure we saw him tear his ACL this season...then he was back just a few games later, then he was leading his Chiefs to a Super Bowl title. It was rightfully referred to as a "miracle recovery" - maybe the kid can walk on water, too.

Nothing would surprise me at this point. Pat Mahomes is the best in the world. Hands down.

ARCHIVE:

Don't forget to look back and see how we got to this point!

Part 9, Players 11-20

Part 8, Players 21-30

Part 7, Players 31-40

Part 6, Players 41-50

Part 5, Players 51-59

Part 4, Players 60-69

Part 3, Players 70-79

Part 2, Players 80-89

Part 1, Players 90-100

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