Thursday, March 31, 2022

NFL QB Power Rankings, Volume 1: 5 Rookies from the 2022 Draft Class!

Photo credit: The Draft Wire - USA Today
 


In terms of headlines and storylines, this was one of the wildest quarterback offseasons in the history of the NFL.

 

Tom Brady retires; then unretires. “Big Ben” actually does retire. Russell Wilson goes to Denver. Deshaun Watson to Cleveland. “Matty Ice” to Indy. Carson Wentz to Washington. Quarterback controversy in San Francisco, never-ending drama surrounding Baker Mayfield and… Mitch Trubisky and Drew Lock as starting QBs??

 

In my last go around with this list, it was a bit too early to see the diverging trajectories of guys like Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow (up, up and away), Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater (down into the abyss). Now, we have all the updated information we need as we head into another set of rankings and the highly anticipated 2022 NFL Draft.

 

50. Desmond Ridder, Rookie: He gets a “spec” spot here, as we simply don’t know who the third QB in this draft class will be. This analyst actually does have Ridder as the No. 3. I’ve seen some others make pretty compelling arguments, as well. I’d rather give an unknown like Ridder a spot on my list than a “know what you’re gonna get” vet like say, Colt McCoy, Tim Boyle, Matt Barkley, Joe Flacco or C.J. Beathard (among many others).

 

49. P.J. Walker, Carolina: I think we all know Carolina has to take a quarterback early in this draft, but what if that QB simply isn’t ready to start in year 1? That potentially opens the door to a playing time battle between P.J. and No. 40 on my list. I’m actually surprised Carolina hasn’t given P.J. more opportunities, given how bad the guy at No. 40 is.

 

48. Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh: Big Ben retires, and now we have Mitch Trubisky as Pittsburgh’s starting QB? This creates the same situation as Carolina, really. Pittsburgh is clearly on the market for a QB in this draft, but in the meantime Rudolph could battle Trubisky for PT. P.J. Walker and Rudolph aren’t great, but they have potentially easier pathways to playing time in comparison to guys sitting just outside my top 50.

 

47. Carson Strong, Rookie: Names really make a difference, I’m tellin’ ya. One example I always give is, “If M. Night Shyamalan’s name was Elmer Clutterbuck, would he be such a famous Director?” I always felt Andrew Luck benefitted from a good, strong name too. A name is marketing. Sometimes you gotta “sound” the part. Carson Strong benefits in this department. He might be the sixth-best QB in this class, but I have him being selected as the fourth. He’s more of a name brand than some of the others.

 

46. Tyrod Taylor, New York: Didn’t agree with New York, here – I think they should have gone for a stronger backup QB – but when you play behind “Danny Dimes” you have a potential path to playing time. Tyrod had a good game or two in Houston, and Daniel Jones could always slip up. New York should be looking at quarterbacks in the draft, too.

45. Matt Corral, Rookie: He looks like the No. 3 rookie, to me. You hear the buzzwords and phrases like “upside,” “quick release,” “intriguing” and “untapped potential”. Former NYJ GM Mike Tannenbaum has Corral going No. 32 overall to Detroit, which does seem to make some logical sense.

 

44. Mike White, New York: Hey, come on… this guy got into the Hall of Fame after just one start! In all seriousness, I might personally think he’s better than the kid I’m ultimately ranking at No. 41. Based on the information and tape we have thus far, it’s really splitting hairs. But the reality is, it’ll take an injury to the guy at No. 41 for White to get any PT at all in (at least) the first half of this upcoming season. Among my fellow NYJ fans, we were wondering if Seattle should have been more interested in a kid like White than the QB I’m eventually ranking at No. 38.

 

43 and 42. Malik Willis & Kenny Pickett, Rookies: Detroit (No. 2 overall or No. 32)? NYG (No. 5 or No. 7)? Carolina (No. 6)? Atlanta (No. 8)? Seattle (No. 9)? Pittsburgh (No. 20)? And which rookie goes first in this class, Willis or Pickett?

 

Each team directly impacts the others. Which leaks to the press have legs? Which positional needs trump the others? Which team reacts if Willis and/or Pickett fall further than anticipated? So many questions, zero real answers at this particular point in time.

 

In terms of the two QBs as individuals, I have Pickett as the steadier guy, and Willis as the upside play. We know Carolina needs a QB. Then we have Pittsburgh, Seattle and Atlanta, in no particular order. You put either Willis or Pickett in Seattle with Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Noah Fant and you start thinking, hmm, this kid might work his way into the top 35 real quick. And as such, it’s all about the landing spots. I think we all know that Willis and Pickett are neck and neck right now. In the future, it’ll be all about their pro coaching, development and surrounding personnel.

 

41. Zach Wilson, New York: As I’ve written quite recently, I think Wilson was basically the worst player in the league last year. Look at the stats, or use The Eye Test – it doesn’t really matter. He was just bad and overmatched. But… NYJ fans will be quick to tell ya that he didn’t turn the ball over at all down the stretch of the season. Some mechanical things seemed to have been cleaned up. Obviously, to some extent, we have to be patient with a kid who is still just 22 years old. I gotta see it before I believe it though, ya know?

 

40. Sam Darnold, Carolina: Come on… you weren’t fooled when Carolina was 3-0 last year, were you? Sam Darnold is who he is. In the grand scheme of things, he’s simply a backup quarterback in this league. Too good to be a third stringer, too inconsistent and mentally weak to be a starter. A dime a dozen, essentially.

 

39. Kyle Allen, Houston: Sleeper alert, here? Couple seasons ago, Allen was looking pretty safe as Washington’s starting QB (Ron Rivera has always taken a liking to him). Then of course, the gruesome season-ending ankle injury. Rehab ensues, some time off the radar altogether, now Allen pops up in a spot behind the kid at No. 27 on my list. What if things go south for the latter? In terms of skillset and execution, to me, Allen’s better than both P.J. Walker and Mason Rudolph; so, those two may have even easier paths to short-term playing time, but Allen’s overall ability gives him the higher ranking on my list for now.

 

38. Drew Lock, Seattle: Yuck. Bodes well for Metcalf, at least, as Lock can only connect on streak patterns down the right sideline. There’s simply no intermediate game for Lock. He doesn’t make reads or decisions quickly enough. The ball comes out late, and he’s far from accurate. Seattle should be hoping for Willis and/or Pickett to fall. Would be far too early for Corral, Strong or Ridder.

 

37. Teddy Bridgewater, Miami: For a while, everyone would just say, well, he’s not gonna kill ya. And like, how far does that really get us? He’s a solid backup. That’s about it. If he’s your starting QB, you aren’t going anywhere unless you have the No. 1 overall defense in the league.

 

36. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta: Gonna be awfully tough without Calvin Ridley. Rebuilding year for Atlanta; Mariota is basically set up to fail, here. Decent quarterback, good kid, very difficult situation from a personnel standpoint.

 

35. Justin Fields, Chicago: I mean, it was almost as ugly as Zach Wilson on the whole, but we saw glimpses of what Fields could potentially accomplish. And look, when we are splitting hairs between middling quarterbacks, the dynamic rushing element always helps. Josh Allen was still somewhat effective before he ever became an accurate thrower at the pro level. Jalen Hurts helped turn Philly into a surprise team with his legs. Lamar Jackson still holds onto the ball too long, but he can always keep you in games with his overall athleticism. So if we have to compare Fields to Darnold/Wilson/Lock etc. at this point in time, we’ll take the more consistent rushing potential as the short-term deciding factor.

 

34. Jared Goff, Detroit: I’ve always been a modest defender of Goff, but last season was just ugly. Now we all really see the power that Sean McVay has. Goff had some good rallies, as always – sometimes, when behind, he just starts connecting on every single throw – but he had uncharacteristically long stretches of particularly putrid play. Detroit was competitive but losing early on, but then they couldn’t be competitive at all when Goff was missing wide open receivers by five or six yards. Maybe it was the system, maybe it was the personnel… maybe Goff is just getting progressively worse as a quarterback at this level.

 

33. Andy Dalton, New Orleans: As the backup to No. 26 on my list, the door is always slightly ajar. Dalton, as we know, just knows the ropes at this point in his lengthy career. As I’ve written in the past, he does – at the very least – get rid of the rock quickly. That comes from two things: (1) Great understanding of opposing defensive schemes and (2) Fear of getting crushed by explosive defenders at his advanced age. I’m pretty sure Dalton will get snaps during the 2022 season. Not impossible to outplay the other guy.

32. Tyler Huntley, Baltimore: I’m not the only one who was impressed by this kid, right? With Lamar going down at a critical juncture in the season, Huntley stepped right in and the Baltimore offense remained competitive. Sometimes, he seemed to be making clearer and quicker decisions than Jackson. I started wondering if other teams – desperate for better QB play – might start viewing Huntley as a backend starting QB in this league. Well, as you can see, I am doing just the same. As No. 32 on my list, with 32 overall teams, I actually do view Huntley as a starter right now.

 

31. Case Keenum, Buffalo: Arguably the toughest guy to rank on the first half of this list. In an initial iteration, I had him as high as No. 22 overall. I mean, he took Minnesota to the final four, right? He seemed to be as good or better than Baker Mayfield in Cleveland last season, right? Case Keenum is just one of those guys you wanna root for. An underdog. No team ever seems to fully commit to him, and now he’s firmly in strict backup territory as the guy watching Josh Allen do his thing. With a better opportunity, I think he really could be No. 22. But, in the spot he's in, it’s injury replacement or absolutely nothing at all. Potentially off the radar, altogether.

 

(P.S. I like what Buffalo has been doing, here. Last season Mitch Trubisky, this season Keenum. This is an organization that doesn’t want to fold up the tent on its season if something happens to its starting quarterback. I like and respect that manner of organizational thinking.)

 

30. Daniel Jones, New York: I’m sorry, but… enough already. It’s like Rachel McAdams in Mean Girls, “Stop trying to make fetch happen! It’s not going to happen!”

 

It’s not gonna happen with Danny Dimes. He’s in “The Group” (see here.) When you fall into “The Group” (my own personal designation), that means you aren’t moving the needle for any NFL team. You are like, in essence, a frontline backup. Any team tying their destiny to you needs a top-five defense, like I said about Bridgewater. All quarterbacks in “The Group” show you flashes. Sometimes you think, maybe this guy really can get the job done. Other times, we think how is this guy even in the pros? And that’s really the whole thing… to be a real starting QB at the top level, there has to be a serious measure of high-quality consistency and repeatability. Daniel Jones doesn’t project to have that long term.

 

29. Gardner Minshew, Philadelphia: Not all that dissimilar from Keenum. Very similar situation, all around, with the one difference being that Hurts is far easier to unseat than Allen. Minshew has the moxie and the moustache, as we know. He doesn’t back down. He’s not afraid. He believes in his ability and goes out there and leaves it all on the field. But long term, the best evaluators worry about his arm strength, particularly in reference to window throws. The worry is warranted. Right now, I do think Minshew is a borderline starter in this league, but long term he's simply in “The Group” with Danny Dimes and many others of the like. There’s a ceiling on what this kid can do, and what he can ultimately accomplish.

 

28. Trey Lance, San Francisco: If Desmond Ridder was “on spec” at No. 50, this is a different version of the same thing. We haven’t seen much of Lance at the pro level, just yet. But think about what we know… San Fran drafted him high in the first place. San Fran easily has some of the best coaches, evaluators and execs in the league. San Fran has Jimmy G, who has gone to a Super Bowl and had another decent playoff run. Yet, the ground is always very shaky beneath Jimmy G’s feet.

 

San Fran seems to know what it has in Lance. Between the two, he seems to be the guy who gives you the chance to achieve more in the long run. Just a moment ago I wrote that Minshew “has a ceiling” on what he can accomplish. Well, Jimmy G is a better version of the same thing. San Fran doesn’t seem to truly believe they can win it all with him, and I can’t say I disagree. The dynamic overall nature of Lance’s game is what intrigues you. San Fran needs to see what it has, too.

 

27. Davis Mills, Houston: Caught my eye, right quick. Looks the part – 6’4”, 225 lbs, stands tall in the pocket, great athletic posture – and he’s not scared. Maybe that’s what happens when you are the forgotten QB in your draft class. Nothin’ to lose, right? Well, I honestly think Houston thinks they have something, here. I can’t say I disagree, given Mills’ mechanics and arm strength.

 

301 yards, 3 TDs, 0 picks vs. Tennessee. 254 yards, 2 TDs, 0 picks vs. LAC. 312 yards, 3 TDs, 0 picks vs. New England. Sure, Mills’ better games came at home, but the road development always tends to come down the line. I just like the efficiency in what we see, here. Couple of good defensive units there in Tennessee and New England, too. I just hope Mills gets the truly professional coaching he needs. I wonder about the complexity and creativity of the X’s and O’s in Houston.

 

26. Jameis Winston, New Orleans: Not really much to say, here. New Orleans simply isn’t the same without Drew Brees. Now you have a head coaching downgrade from Sean Payton to Dennis Allen. Jameis is also coming off a major injury. How much can we truly expect, here? This is a middle-of-the-road ranking for a backend starting QB, at best.

 

Be sure to tune in next time for my top 25!

 

John Frascella is a published sports author and Senior Writer for Aaron Torres Online. Follow him on Twitter @LegendSports7 for original sports content.