Late-Night Boredom Review: "Tape" - A Little-Known Mindf**k of A Movie

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When we first see Vince (Ethan Hawke) in Richard Linklater's Tape, he's bouncing around his dodgy hotel room like a sugar-rushed kid straight outta Candy Land. Later on, we find that what he's rushing on isn't exactly candy. Nevertheless, what is he so amped up about? What is he waiting so impatiently for?

Shortly after his jumping, throwing and flailing around the room, there's a knock at his hotel room door. In walks Vince's best friend from high school, Jon (Robert Sean Leonard). (You may recall that Hawke and Leonard played roommates in the Robin Williams vehicle, Dead Poets Society.) Jon is in town for the premiere of the indie film he's been working on for the past couple years. The old friends quickly fall into conversation about Vince's recently failed relationship, Jon's potentially burgeoning directorial career and old times. 

But there's a palpable edge to the conversation. These guys are clearly old pals, but there's something between them. A divide of some sort. There's a competitive feel to the banter, though Jon quickly assumes the authoritative role because he "has it together." Vince is a mess -- disheveled, jittery and a small-time drug dealer. Jon is clean cut and seemingly on the path to success. 

And yet the power pendulum swings when Vince begins to delve into their collective past. He brings up Amy, his high school sweetheart, and Jon is instantly hesitant. What happened with Amy? Why is this almost immediately a sore subject?

Before long we find out that Amy broke up with Vince near the end of senior year -- likely because of his "potentially dangerous" nature (this is referred to on multiple occasions) --  and Jon swooped in and slept with Amy. 

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This is apparently still bothering Vince. A lot. To make matters even more interesting, Amy happens to be in the area. Perhaps she'll be stopping by. 

Vince proceeds to place Jon under intense questioning for an extended period of time. There's little subtlety to what he's doing -- Vince is saying Jon's experience with Amy wasn't sex. It was rape. But why is Vince suggesting this? What are his grounds? Where did he get this theory from?

**SPOILERS AHEAD **

As the conversation heats up, Jon begins to break. At first he says the sex was "a little rough." As Vince becomes more and more insistent, Jon concedes more and more. Maybe it was date rape, he grants Vince, who is still visibly unsatisfied. He almost seems like he needs it to be rape. 

Disturbingly enough, Vince wants to hear Jon saying that he raped the love of his life. And when Jon actually does, the title of the movie begins to make sense. The moment Jon finally exclaims, "Okay, it was rape!" we hear the clicking of a tape recorder. "What was that?" Jon asks. 

Vince is ecstatic. He has successfully recorded the confession. Shortly after, he's on the phone with Amy, confirming that she's on the way over. Jon is both dumbfounded and extremely frustrated. Why has his "best friend" done this to him? Is Amy really on the way over, or is Vince just messing with him to make a vicious point? He can't afford to wait to find out. He tackles Vince in an effort to grab the tape. A scuffle ensues. It's getting violent when of course...

...there's a knock at the door. 

Both "men" quickly hop off the floor and straighten themselves up. Jon looks like he's ready to crap his pants. Vince is bursting with manic energy. When the door peels open, Amy (Uma Thurman) walks in. 

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From there, things get tricky. I don't want to give away too much, but Amy's introduction to the story certainly clouds the facts. There are secrets revealed about Vince. There are mysterious elements to Amy's responses and unwillingness to say anything definitive. Previously uttered lines of dialogue begin to make more sense. Someone ends up completely in the dark. A life-changing phone call is made. Someone gets closure. Someone is forgiven. Someone has the power at the very end. 

If you make it to the end of Tape, you may think you know what happened. 

But...think again. You'll want to. Trust me. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING: 9 out of 10 **

Quarterback Power Rankings: Two Rookies In My Top 30 - Without Ever Taking A Snap?

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We can talk about running backs, wide receivers, offensive and defensive linemen, linebackers and defensive backs all we want, but at the end of the day, we all know that winning and losing in the NFL boils down to quarterback play. 

I mean look at last season -- the final four teams were the Patriots, Colts, Seahawks and Packers, led by Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers respectively. That's four of the top six quarterbacks in the world. Anyway, let's get to it...

50. Matt Schaub (Ravens):  I honestly thought this guy retired. Once one of the better fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL when he was throwing to Andre Johnson in his prime, Schaub is now merely an emergency veteran in case Joe Flacco goes down. His arm strength -- which was always kind of suspect anyway -- isn't there anymore, and he'll never be a true starter again. 

49. Dan Orlovsky (Lions): The man best known for running out of the back of the endzone and having absolutely no idea, Orlovsky also once dropped an $800 pot to me in poker. I had quad twos and he had a pair. Needless to say, he didn't play the hand very well.

However, football wise, he's actually a very talented guy. He's the greatest quarterback in the history of the University of Connecticut, and he maintains a job as an NFL QB2 because of his solid natural ability. He has a big arm and little fear. He's also a very positive guy and good teammate. 

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48. Jimmy Garoppolo (Patriots): There was a bizarre article last season that said the Patriots were considering trading Tom Brady for Andre Johnson if they couldn't escape their early season struggles. The thought alone insinuates that they must really like Garoppolo. I'll have to see it before I believe it. 

47. Johnny Manziel (Browns): He's out of control both on and off the field, but the personnel isn't great for Josh McCown in Cleveland. He's definitely a better quarterback than Manziel, but we may end up seeing "Johnny Football" when the Browns predictably sputter. Expect some wild plays and an unacceptable amount of mistakes. 

46. Austin Davis (Rams): We got a good look at him last season during his stint as Jeff Fisher's starter, and we didn't see much. The Rams won a game here and there with their electric defense, but Davis didn't have much to do with it. His best game came in a surprisingly strong performance against the Cowboys. Not much of an arm here, though. I doubt we'll see him as a starter again. 

45. E.J. Manuel (Bills): Things looked so promising in Manuel's first few starts as a rookie, but it's been all downhill from there. He's very inaccurate and really struggles to stretch the field effectively. He is best suited as a roll out QB who dinks and dunks short, safe passes. There are rumblings that he's fallen behind Tyrod Taylor on the Bills' depth chart. Yikes. 

44. Matt Hasselbeck (Colts): Nooooo, this guy is still in the league? Once a fairly consistent Pro Bowl caliber QB, Hasselbeck now holds the clipboard for Mr. Andrew Luck. I'd still rather have this old vet than the quarterbacks listed from #45 to 50.

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43. Kirk Cousins (Redskins): Ahh, the famous "back-up quarterback is actually a superstar" hype. Generally speaking, when a guy is a back-up QB, it's because his professional coaching staff understands that he is not a starting caliber player. I tend to trust the experienced coaches over beat writers who say, "The guy dominates practice. He looks incredible and makes all the throws." Yeah, well, the lights came on and Cousins shit the bed. 

42. Chad Henne (Jaguars): I guess he's kind of similar to Cousins, in some ways. People always say, "Henne is big, strong, talented and can make all of the throws downfield." And yet, whenever he gets the opportunity to start his game numbers look something like this: 156 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions. 

That's called a back-up quarterback. 

41. Colt McCoy (Redskins): In quite possibly my favorite game of the 2014 NFL regular season, Colt McCoy -- initially Jay Gruden's third-string quarterback -- went home to Dallas and shocked the Cowboys with an entertaining road victory. This kid radiates positive energy. He's a tough guy who will always get the most out of his limited physical ability. A pro's pro. 

40. Derek Anderson (Panthers): A steady professional back-up QB. Has represented himself well in a number of different cities. Doesn't kill you when he's out there, and can actually win a handful of games for you when he's on. 

39. Matt Cassel (Bills): My good friend, Steven Summer (happy 30th birthday, Stevo!), was once on vacation in the islands and ran into Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley. At the time, Haley had just finished up his successful-but-unfairly-short stint as head coach of the Chiefs. When Steve asked Haley about his time in Kansas City, he said, "Hey, I made the playoffs with Matt Cassel as my starting quarterback -- I'd say I did pretty damn good."

Nuff said. 

38. Matt Moore (Dolphins): The season before Ryan Tannehill was drafted by the Dolphins, Moore was named the team's Most Valuable Player by the coaches and players. He's a good leader and gamer who has had a very respectable professional career. My kind of guy. 

37. Mike Glennon (Bucs): Has had a couple of chances in Tampa Bay and never gets over the hump. He's a decent quarterback who shows some positive flashes. Doesn't have the sustainability to be a reliable starter. 

36. Ryan Mallett (Texans): Locked in a position battle with the scrappy Brian Hoyer. Neither guy is anywhere near a front-line quarterback. To use some names we have already seen: Mallett is like a younger Chad Henne and Hoyer is a slightly better Colt McCoy or Matt Moore. Nothing to write home about here.

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35. Blake Bortles (Jaguars): If you ask me, the kid has a broken arm and makes too many mind-boggling decisions. He sometimes thinks he is Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers forcing "bullets" into dangerously small windows. Except, his bullets are ducks. Luckily for Bortles, Julius Thomas and Allen Robinson should help his statistical production a bit. 

34. Brian Hoyer (Texans): Pretty much covered him in Mallett's summary. He's a gamer but isn't gifted. Gets the respect of many of his teammates because he is gritty, but he just simply isn't a pure quarterback. He's more of a football player than a quarterback. 

33. Robert Griffin III (Redskins): Hasn't shown he can be an NFL starting quarterback without his mobility. Doesn't help when your head coach picks you apart in the media. Griffin hasn't realized that he isn't the player he once was, and Gruden is a dick. These guys are annoying. 

32. Drew Stanton (Cardinals): An excellent back-up quarterback. Cardinals may have beaten the Panthers in the playoffs if they had Stanton available instead of the laughable Ryan Lindley. Stanton has surprisingly good poise in the pocket and can make very difficult throws look relatively easy. I'm a Drew Stanton guy. 

31. Shaun Hill (Vikings): A reliable journeyman who has been a positive contributor everywhere he goes. In terms of tools and playing style, I think a comparison to Chad Pennington is very fair here. When starters go down, Hill often takes over and outplays them. It doesn't always look pretty but he certainly gets the job done. An admirable player. 

30. Josh McCown (Browns): When he pulled a Kurt Warner or Tom Brady during his run as a Chicago Bear, I was firmly seated in his bandwagon. However, a couple years later, it appears that McCown's incredible success was a product of Marc Trestman's savvy playcalling and Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte's tremendous talent. McCown is basically a borderline starter at this point. 

29. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets): I've already heard this guy's name too often this week. We know what he is -- he doesn't kill you but doesn't win games for you. The Jets better hope their defense is dominant and Chris Ivory is a monster. I'm not really feelin' it. 

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28. Jameis Winston (Bucs): Sorry, I gotta see it before I believe it. The kid's character is questionable and so is his on-field decision making. People are also overrating WR2 Vincent Jackson; there's no question he's lost a step. I expect Winston to be relying heavily upon Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Not a lot of experience in that trio. Winston will have one of the highest interception totals this season. 

27. Geno Smith (Jets): I still believe in his natural ability, and I really like the combo of Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall for him. He may never be a starter in the NFL again, though. I suppose time will tell. 

26. Jay Cutler (Bears): All hype and no substance. "Big arm, can make all the throws" -- yeah, to the other team. This guy is a bonafide team cancer and everyone knows it. He still puts up some solid stats, so he makes the top 30. 

25. Sam Bradford (Eagles): The latest report says the Eagles' coaching staff is "ecstatic" with Bradford -- umm, he hasn't even played a regular season game yet. Gettin' all fired up about nothing. Bradford has been injury-prone and quite underwhelming throughout his somewhat bizarre NFL career. He's a really nice kid with a good attitude, but that's part of his facade. He gets everyone to like him so they look past the fact that he isn't a great quarterback. He'll have career-best numbers in Chip Kelly's offense, but he'll shock their staff with surprisingly poor play. 

Surprising to them, at least. 

24. Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings): It's been an interesting few years for Teddy. Once regarded as the consensus No. 1 quarterback of his draft class, he ended up falling to the bottom of the first round due to some suspect work at the Combine. Who gives a shit? It's just drills. In games, Bridgewater has always been a tough kid who makes athletic plays. His teammates rally behind him. He may not be a pure passer but he's going to win games. He has a little magic in him. 

23. Derek Carr (Raiders): Has a much stronger and smoother arm than his older brother, David. There's definitely potential here. Hopefully he and Amari Cooper will turn this sorry franchise around. Dare I say...the Raiders are on the rise?

22. Mark Sanchez (Eagles): Can't wait until Chip Kelly realizes he's better off with Sanchez over Bradford. Sanchez is the Stephon Marbury of the NFL -- gets no credit when he plays well and gets all the blame when he plays poorly. There's simply no justice for Dirty Sanchez.

However, he was superb after Nick Foles went down last season. His strong overall performance turned a lot of heads, but not mine. I know this guy can play. He's a solid-but-unspectacular NFL quarterback. 

21. Andy Dalton (Bengals): Not a great quarterback, but I like his talent pool with A.J. Green, Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. "The Red Rifle" should be decent this season. I have a good vibe on the Bengals this year. 

20. Alex Smith (Chiefs): Doesn't turn the ball over, doesn't make big plays. Doesn't kill you. Gotta run the ball and play D with Smith. He's one of the best of the pure "ball control" quarterbacks. 

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19. Marcus Mariota (Titans): I'm buying in all the way. My gut tells me this kid should end up being a superstar, but I'm extremely concerned about his surrounding cast. They need to improve their talent -- fast. I think Mariota can do it all. I'm going heavy on the Titans over the Bucs in Week 1. 

18. Nick Foles (Rams): I'm a Nick Foles guy. Was really hoping the Jets were going to end up with him when he was being shopped around. Very solid move for Jeff Fisher and the Rams. I think people are giving Chip Kelly too much credit when it comes to Foles. I think he truly has the intangibles. He could possibly get up into the #14 quarterback range. 

17. Colin Kaepernick (49ers): Needs a bounce-back season. Hopefully Torrey Smith will help and Vernon Davis will actually show up. Reggie Bush should also help on dump-offs. 

16. Carson Palmer (Cardinals): I've never been much of a Carson Palmer guy, but it was clear how much the Cardinals missed him when he went down last season. Drew Stanton was excellent as his back-up, but once it got to Ryan Lindley it was an absolute shitshow. Palmer is still a solid player. He needs Michael Floyd to be more consistent. John Brown may end up being the key receiver for him. 

15. Cam Newton (Panthers): Cam is growing on me a little. Kelvin Benjamin is not as good as people think he is, and Steve Smith wasn't there last season. Cam doesn't really have much to work with. He's a tough guy with a reputation as a dick, but at least we know he's always going to compete physically. I do think he has improved as a passer. I thought he played surprisingly well in the postseason last year. The front office still hasn't helped him enough at the wide receiver position. 

14. Ryan Tannehill (Dolphins): Very good all-around, just like his team. Not awesome, but very good. I don't think he'll ever be a consistent top 10 quarterback, but he should always be in the 12 to 18 range. He's one of my "blank-minded" quarterbacks. He doesn't think much; he's more of an instinctual and reactionary quarterback. There are two more guys like that coming on the list. 

13. Matthew Stafford (Lions): We're waiting and waiting and waiting for this guy to become a star, but he never does. He's just not consistent enough. Has the ability but needs to refine the mental skills that have made Peyton Manning and Tom Brady great. 

12. Eli Manning (Giants): The second of the blank-minded quarterbacks. The less you think, the less fear you have. That can often be a good thing. I think Eli is in for a big year if Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz and Shane Vereen can stay healthy. Eli could be as high as No. 9 on this list. 

11. Joe Flacco (Ravens): The third-and-final blank-minded quarterback. "Joe Cool" has really become an outstanding playoff quarterback. I love his poise but sometimes wonder about his decision-making. Nevertheless, I'd love to have him under center for my team in a big spot. I think he generally continues to improve from one season to the next. 

10. Philip Rivers (Chargers): Possible decline this season. Could fall as far as #16 or 17. Antonio Gates is suspended for four games, Eddie Royal is gone and I'm worried about Philip's arm strength. He's a warrior, though. I'll give him that. 

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9. Drew Brees (Saints): Same as Rivers. Arm strength is clearly diminishing. Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills are gone. This season could mark the end of an incredible run. 

8. Peyton Manning (Broncos): Likely the smartest and best-prepared quarterback in the history of the game, Peyton's physical skills are simply declining. He relies more on his preparation than ability at this point. He generally needs to get rid of the ball quickly and get it into the hands of Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders. He will certainly miss Julius Thomas in the redzone.

7. Matt Ryan (Falcons): A great quarterback in his prime. Like Peyton, his preparation is outstanding and his knowledge of the game is world class. He reads opposing coverages extremely well and delivers his timing throws beautifully. Too bad the Falcons can never make a defensive stop. 

6. Russell Wilson (Seahawks): Everyone knows I'm a Russell Wilson guy, but his horrific playoff performance against the Packers did scare me. He also threw an interception that cost his team the Super Bowl. I've dropped Wilson to #6 because he should have audibled out of that atrocious playcall. Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Ben...they all would have known better. Wilson is TOO nice. He respects his coaches TOO much. At the end of the day this is his team, and he should have taken control of the ship. Should be a two-time Super Bowl champ, but isn't. 

5. Andrew Luck (Colts): I've been talking about the Colts' offseason a lot. I can't say enough about the pick-ups of Frank Gore and Andre Johnson. Luck was incredible last season with just T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and "Boom Boom" Herron, but now he has two more legitimately productive veterans. Luck will be either the No. 1 or 2 fantasy quarterback this year. 

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4. Tony Romo (Cowboys): 1st in quarterback rating (a whopping 113.2). 1st in completion percentage (an incredible 69.9). 34 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. Could he possibly be more efficient? Romo is the fuckin' man!

3. Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers): This monster is aging like fine wine. What he did last season was absolutely astonishing. 4,952 yards passing (1st in the league), 408 completions (3rd) and 32 touchdowns with only 9 picks. He will continue to reap the benefits of Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell, two of the best football players on the planet. 

2. Tom Brady (Patriots): C'mon, it's Tom Brady! Do I really have to summarize what he brings to the table? Another Super Bowl win. He's a winner in the class of Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant and Derek Jeter. One of the best players in the history of the game. 

1. Aaron Rodgers (Packers): The perfect quarterback. When he's on -- which is essentially all the time -- there is nothing opposing defenses can do to stop him. He may be the best all-around quarterback in the history of the sport. What, if any, are his weaknesses? I really can't think of anything. He and LeBron James are the best active athletes in the four major sports. Mike Trout and Alex Ovechkin would be next in line.

Bring on the arguments!!!

2015 NFL Preseason Predictions: Rodgers, Brady or Wilson...Which Elite QB Gets the Glory?

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It was another action-packed offseason in the NFL -- ugh, I hate these obligatory intros. Let's just go straight to my rankings...

AFC EAST

4. Buffalo Bills (7-9)

Yeah, they got Rex Ryan and LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin and Charles Clay and...they still don't have a quarterback. Either way, with Matt Cassel or E.J. Manuel, they'll have one of the absolute worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. 

There's no question that they'll boast one of the premier defenses in the game -- sure to account for most of their seven wins -- but their division is too tough with the improved Dolphins and Jets, along with the Super Bowl champion Pats. 

3. Miami Dolphins (9-7)

I like the effort that the Dolphins' front office put into this offseason, but I'm not quite sure it'll be enough to get them over the hump. They've been a middling team for a couple seasons now, and they're hoping that Ndamukong Suh, Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings will present the collective answer to their prayers. 

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I think the Dolphins will be a solid two-way team without being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Close, but no cigar. 

2. New York Jets (10-6)

What a friggin' offseason. I couldn't have been happier until Sheldon Richardson's inexplicable antics forced me into a momentary-but-standard Jets depression. Nevertheless, the Jets and their faithful are hoping that rookie Leonard Williams can be all he's cracked up to be. Wilkerson and Harrison will be there to support him on the D-line as well.

In the secondary, talk about a complete 180 with the additions of Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine and Antonio Cromartie. People still like to talk about Cromartie because he's a big name, but I actually think Skrine will be the more valuable player of the two.

Offensively, Geno Smith will be greatly assisted by the addition of veteran redzone WR Brandon Marshall. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be waiting in the wings if Geno falls flat on his face. This is a very solid all-around team with a promising new head coach in Todd Bowles.

1. New England Patriots (10-6)

Much of their record will be determined by what ends up happening with Tom Brady. Right now he's looking at a four-game suspension to begin the season, but I still agree with Tom's contention that the NFL has no REAL evidence against him. Obviously we all know he did it, but it's innocent until PROVEN guilty in our society. Something tells me he'll end up with two games, at most. That's just the way things tend to work out for the hated Patriots.

Belichick's offense will be strong again once Brady is behind center, but defensively they've clearly taken a hit. Their corners are terrible. This is not a Super Bowl champion frontrunner, and they're going to get a ton of trouble from the Jets and Dolphins. The Bills will also be feisty. I don't see a repeat in Belichick's future.

AFC NORTH

4. Cleveland Browns (5-11)

This feels like a team of misfits and castoffs. Their offense should be one of the least productive in the NFL, but their talented defense will steal a game here and there. DBs Joe Haden and Donte Whitner are among the best at their respective positions, and LBs Paul Kruger and Karlos Dansby are pro's pros. Head coach Mike Pettine will continue to get more than he should out of his suspect talent pool. 

3. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

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You'd think GM Ozzie Newsome would learn his lesson -- the last time Joe Flacco only had one legitimate wide receiver to throw to, this team fell out of contention. When they had Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith they were fine. When they had Torrey Smith and Steve Smith they were fine. When they had ONLY Torrey Smith, they struggled mightily. Now they ONLY have Steve Smith. I don't think Flacco is going to like this. I also think RB Justin Forsett should be expected to regress some. 

They have a better defense than the Steelers and Bengals, but I'm not sure that'll be enough.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)

Everyone who knows me well knows that I've been cleaning up by betting against Andy Dalton in the playoffs. He's a bottom-third quarterback (middle of the pack, at best), but he's surrounded by some strong offensive talent. RB1 Jeremy Hill looked like one of the best in the game throughout last season's second half, WR1 A.J. Green is a consistent star and RB2 Giovani Bernard can make some explosive plays. The X-factors for this team will be WRs Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu -- will they do enough for the Bengals to outplay the Ravens and hang with the Steelers?

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

With Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, we all know the Steelers are going to boast one of the highest scoring offenses in the league. Is their defense, a combination of aging vets and unproven youngsters, competitive enough for a Super Bowl run? I'm not sure, they may just have to outscore everyone.

AFC SOUTH

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

Gotta like the additions of TE Julius Thomas and RB T.J. Yeldon, but I'm not a Blake Bortles believer. Plain and simple. And this team never defends well enough. 

3. Tennessee Titans (6-10)

While I may not be a Blake Bortles guy, I AM, in fact, a believer in rookie QB Marcus Mariota. Love his quick release, confidence and mobility. It's a real shame that the Titans don't have any top-tier receivers. Mariota will undoubtedly show flashes of brilliance, but his production will be bottled up by a sub-par supporting cast. I hope they improve their talent pool in the future, so this kid can reach his full potential. 

2. Houston Texans (6-10)

Like the Brady situation in New England, much of Houston's success will hinge on RB Arian Foster's eventual return. Will he be out 3-to-6 weeks, or 6 months? The reports have varied. With Foster on the sideline and Andre Johnson in Indianapolis, this could be a dreadful offense. QBs Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett don't inspire much confidence. 

Defensively, this is an all-star team featuring Watt, Wilfork, Clowney, Cushing and Joseph. I just don't think this offense will be good enough. 

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1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4)

Love the Johnson and Frank Gore pick-ups. They will get just the right amount of reps, with T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and Dan Herron sharing the playmaking load. Andrew Luck is going to love his new guys, but this defense is questionable as usual. 

Even with the sometimes-suspect defense, I don't think there's any doubt that the Colts have the easiest path to a division title. 

AFC WEST

4. Oakland Raiders (6-10)

I mean, they look better on paper with guys like Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper and Roy Helu -- it's a start. I don't think they will be terrible, and they may even win seven. Still not going to be in the playoff discussion due to a competitive division and better Wild Card options like the Jets, Dolphins, Ravens and Bengals. 

3. San Diego Chargers (7-9)

I'm outsourcing this one -- my buddy who is an expert on offensive and defensive lines says the Chargers' O-line is in absolute shambles. That, coupled with the fact that I'm not "feeling" San Diego this season, feels like 7-9 or 8-8 (at best) are very safe bets. 

2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)

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Man, the race for the two AFC Wild Card spots is really going to be a dogfight. The Chiefs will be right in there (seemingly as always) with their addition of WR1 Jeremy Maclin. Clearly he won't be as productive as he was in Chip Kelly's video game offense, but he will definitely help take some of the pressure off RB1 Jamaal Charles and TE Travis Kelce. 

And this defense is always serviceable; especially at home. 

1. Denver Broncos (11-5)

I'm down on Peyton Manning but high on C.J. Anderson; the latter was super impressive down the stretch of last season. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are an outstanding tandem. There's a ton of talent on this defense. They still won't get over the hump in the end, though. 

NFC EAST

4. Washington Redskins (6-10)

When I'm reading things like, "Multiple high-ranking NFL execs think Robert Griffin III is DONE," that doesn't exactly inspire confidence. HC Jay Gruden is also kind of an asshole who sells out his players to make himself look smart. This is still a dysfunctional bunch; don't let their offseason of positivity and praise fool you. 

RB Alfred Morris also has nothing left in his legs. 

3. Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)

I don't like Chip Kelly or Sam Bradford, this team's receivers are suspect and their defense (as usual) will blitz and gamble more than anything else. I love DeMarco Murray, but this is an over-hyped squad. I think Mark Sanchez is better than Bradford. Looking forward to the latter falling on his face. 

2. New York Giants (9-7)

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It's hard not to like New York's offensive core of Eli Manning, Odell Beckham, Victor Cruz, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and Larry Donnell (with RB Andre Williams and WR Rueben Randle also worth mention). If Cruz is 100% this could be a 10-win team, though I don't think he will be. 

Conversely, we may be looking at one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL here. In terms of personnel, the Giants appear to be built similarly to the Steelers. 

1. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)

I want the DeMarco decision to burn them SO badly, but Jerry Jones' boys still appear to be the best in their division. New RB1 Joseph Randle has shown some nice flashes in the past; nevertheless, he's still the team's biggest overall question mark. Clearly he won't be as effective as DeMarco, but Dallas does boast one of the premier offensive lines in the game. The holes will be there. 

Honestly, I still feel bad about last season -- that Dez Bryant "drop" against the Packers was absolutely excruciating to watch. As a career-long Tony Romo supporter, that was a tough pill to swallow. This year is going to be different for me because I vehemently disagree with their decision to let DeMarco walk. To make matters worse he ends up with the division-rival Eagles. 

So yeah, I'll be rooting for the Cowboys, but not.

NFC NORTH

4. Chicago Bears (6-10)

I'm just kind of sick of this team. They are like the Redskins, in a way -- lot of drama, mostly centered on a shitty quarterback. Jay Cutler is a cancer and everyone knows it, including the people who inked him to an absurdly lucrative extension. You can't win with Cutler and a suspect defense. Period. 

3. Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

Now this is an interesting team. I was leaning toward 7-9, but they showed plenty of life last season even without Adrian Peterson and the newly-acquired Mike Wallace. Teddy Bridgewater is a gamer, and this team appeared to take on a bit of his personality. I think 8-8 is safe, but 9-7 isn't out of the question for this intriguing group. 

2. Detroit Lions (9-7)

Ndamukong Suh and Reggie Bush are big losses. Haloti Ngata and Theo Riddick will step into those roles respectively, but that's a level below what they had. Gotta love their trio in the passing game of Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, but I'm still not sold on Joique Bell as a RB1. 

The Lions do have two of my favorite defensive players, LB DeAndre Levy and SS James Ihedigbo. That's a duo that plays with ferocity and intensity all the time. They truly create havoc. This team should be able to hold off the Vikings for 2nd, but it's not a lock. 

1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)

Green Bay is the class of the division and will certainly be in contention for the NFC title. Aaron Rodgers is the best player in the world, WRs Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are a superb trio, RB Eddie Lacy is slow but steady and B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers, Sam Shields and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are all excellent defenders. 

I've never been a huge Mike McCarthy guy, but he does seem to outsmart opposing head coaches more often than not.

NFC SOUTH

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

I'm not gonna lie, hearing that rookie QB Jameis Winston was throwing careless picks left and right the first few days of camp made a poor first impression on me. Given his history of erratic behavior and sometimes overzealous play, I would have preferred to hear some positive early reports about a changed man. Instead I'm picturing Winston throwing twice as many interceptions as touchdowns in his rookie campaign. 

WR Vincent Jackson is clearly on the decline, the running back position has been a question mark of late for this franchise and their defensive is average, even if they do have my friend from UConn -- name drop! -- solid and savvy linebacker Danny Lansanah. Good luck, Danny!

3. New Orleans Saints (6-10)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Drew Brees' arm just isn't what it used to be and this team is all-in on WR Brandin Cooks, and I ain't buyin' it. He's a tiny wideout with some speed and shiftiness, he's not a franchise WR1. Like Vincent Jackson in the previous synopsis, WR Marques Colston is also slowing dramatically. 

As always, New Orleans' defense will increase the blood pressure of its fans to unsafe levels. Possible candidate to be severely overrated. 

2. Carolina Panthers (7-9)

Although I won a significant sum of money betting against the Panthers in the postseason, I actually liked what I saw from Cam Newton against the salivating Seattle Seahawks D. I thought he performed about as well as he possibly could. It's not him I'm worried about -- it's his receiving corps and oft-injured RB1 Jonathan Stewart. WR1 Kelvin Benjamin has to improve his toughness, physicality and versatility to be a real factor in close games this season. 

On the bright side, "Riverboat" Ron Rivera's defense is easily the best in this division. They could plausibly squeak out another division crown, they'll just have to get a few breaks here and there. 

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1. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

It's the weakest division in the NFL, so I'm going with the best 1-2 punch in Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. I'm also thinking new head coach Dan Quinn will maximize the little talent that he does have on defense. Former HC Mike Smith was a glorified babysitter and nothing more; it's likely that a real football coach like Quinn will get more out of a similar group of players. 

Nevertheless, this division battle will come down to the home stretch. It's Panthers or Falcons. Flip a coin. 

NFC WEST

4. San Francisco 49ers (7-9)

I don't think this team will be as bad as most are anticipating. LB Patrick Willis and DL Justin Smith were outstanding players, but at the end of the day it's easier to replace defensive players than offensive skill players. Offensively the Niners have Colin Kaepernick, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, Reggie Bush and Carlos Hyde. That ain't bad at all. They will compete but this division is tough. 

3. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)

I really think this franchise is going to miss former DC Todd Bowles. I don't think this defense will be as explosive or effective. Also, as many of you know, I've never really been a believer in Carson Palmer. Can't win the big ones with him. Expect a slight regression here. 

2. St. Louis Rams (9-7)

Feels like it may be their time to get over the hump (a bit). A very fast, aggressive and talented defense. One of the premier head coaches in the game. Also, Nick Foles clearly won't be able to duplicate his bloated production from Chip Kelly's offense, but I do like him in general. He's tall, pretty patient and is surprisingly tough on third downs. He can make clutch throws and is actually tougher than he appears. He's not a star but I certainly like him better than Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford. 

The Rams also make key plays on special teams. It's not a fluke; it's well-designed scheming. 

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1. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Not much reason to expect regression here. And, well, they added Jimmy Graham. I think Russell Wilson will like his new toy. 

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

AFC Playoff teams: 1. Colts 2. Broncos 3. Steelers 4. Patriots 5. Jets 6. Bengals

NFC Playoff teams: 1. Packers 2. Seahawks 3. Cowboys 4. Falcons 5. Lions 6. Rams

AFC Wild Card Weekend:  Steelers over Bengals and Jets over Patriots

NFC Wild Card Weekend:  Cowboys over Rams and Lions over Falcons

AFC Semis: Colts over Jets and Steelers over Broncos

NFC Semis: Packers over Lions and Seahawks over Cowboys

AFC Championship: Colts over Steelers, 34-31

NFC Championship: Packers over Seahawks, 27-20

SUPER BOWL

GREEN BAY PACKERS OVER INDIANAPOLIS COLTS, 38-28. 

As always, I welcome your questions and/or comments. Thanks for reading.