Tuesday, October 18, 2016

NBA Top 100 Players: Five Megastars. Only One Can Be Number One.

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Nearly every offseason, both Sports Illustrated and ESPN release their controversial NBA top 100 players lists (though the latter went with the top 100 of all time this year). More often than not, these lists are teetering on horrendous. ESPN is usually too obsessed with ridiculous metrics, and Sports Illustrated had a particularly rough offseason this year. 

So, as usual, it's my turn to clean up their collective messes. Some important notes before we get started:

1. I'm only going to include short blurbs for rankings that may be considered unorthodox, or require some specific sort of explanation. 

2. My abbreviated ranking system keeps the following in mind: 

(A) Offense is rarer than defense. (B) Can this player carry a team under playoff-type pressure? (C) Role players on top teams are glorified, but they're still just role players. (D) Teams cannot win in the postseason without stars who create for themselves and their teammates. (E) Last season's actual production is more important than this year's projections, but we still have to project a little (obviously in the case of impact rookies). (F) Durability is an invaluable commodity. 

3. Later in the week, I'm going to extend this post to the top 200 players. That should provide some more context. All right, let's go...

100. Marvin Williams, F, Charlotte Hornets (SI: 65)
99. Jarrett Jack, PG, Atlanta Hawks (SI: Unranked)

Jack is an un-flashy veteran coming off a major surgery, but did you know he was 8th in the NBA in assists per game last season (prior to injury)? We know he's always been a crafty one-on-one scorer, but he's also developed his distribution over the years. He's a mentally-tough player, and I respect his ability to hit big shots. 

98. Marcus Morris, F, Detroit Pistons (SI: Unranked)
97. Dennis Schroder, PG, Atlanta Hawks (SI: Unranked)
96. Avery Bradley, G, Boston Celtics (SI: 72)
95. George Hill, PG, Utah Jazz (SI: 56)

As you can see, Sports Illustrated severely overrated Hill. He's a smart, solid professional basketball player, but his lack of explosiveness makes him a liability as a starter at the most competitive position in the sport. His lack of foot speed makes him a weak penetrator, and you have to break down the opposing D to be truly successful in the NBA. Hill is just a nice player; he's not a near top 50 guy. 

94. Tyreke Evans, G/F, New Orleans Pelicans (SI: Unranked)
93. Zach LaVine, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
92. Markieff Morris, PF, Washington Wizards (SI: Unranked)
91. Thaddeus Young, F, Indiana Pacers (SI: 66)
90. Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets (SI: 87, we almost agreed on this one)
89. Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings (SI: Unranked)

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88. Enes Kanter, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 88, wow!)
87. Tristan Thompson, C, Cleveland Cavs (SI: 52)

Remember what I said about the glorification of role players on high-quality teams? Need I say more right now? Nevertheless, I will. I actually really like Tristan -- I would certainly welcome him with open arms to my Nets or Knicks -- but he's essentially just a coordinated finisher and offensive rebounder. He doesn't work nearly as hard in the regular season as he does in the playoffs. You can't be the 52nd best player in the NBA, simply because you rebound well in a handful of higher-leverage games. 

86. Steven Adams, C, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 40!!!)

This SI ranking is bordering on insanity. Do you remember anyone gushing about Steven Adams during the regular season? No, he was just a solid big splitting minutes with Serge Ibaka and the aforementioned Enes Kanter. He contributes nicely during the postseason, so SI skyrockets him into the top 40? He's just a tough guy who is improving his finishing around the cup. Steven Adams is not an electric player. In the top 40 we should be talking about primetime guys. 

85. Chandler Parsons, SF, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 51)
84. Deron Williams, PG, Dallas Mavericks (SI: Unranked)

I hate D-Will because of his shitty attitude when he played for my Nets, but the fact remains that he's a talented all-around point guard who can penetrate, knock down mid-range jumpers and treys, dish with the best of 'em and defend well when he wants to. The problems are keeping him healthy and happy. Easier said than done. 

83. Jamal Crawford, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: Unranked)

You gotta be kidding me, Sports Illustrated! Cody Zeller (94), Mason Plumlee (93) and Bismack Biyombo (91) are on your list, but the greatest bench player of his generation is not? "J-Crossover" is a jaw-dropping solo offensive performer who leaves "lingerie on the deck," as the hilarious announcer and ex-coach Bill Raftery would say. That means he fakes defenders out of their clothes. Jamal is durable and dependable, and he can carry your offense through periods of stagnation. Seriously...Bismack F***in Biyombo?!!

82. Harrison Barnes, SF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: Unranked)
81. DeMarre Carroll, SF, Toronto Raptors (SI: 73)
80. Jabari Parker, F, Milwaukee Bucks
79. Kyle Korver, SF, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 70)

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78. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Detroit Pistons (SI: Unranked)

A young, versatile performer settling into his niche on a quality team in the midst of successful development. If they can survive temporarily without Reggie Jackson, the Pistons will further their collective improvement under Stan Van Gundy, and Kentavious will continue to knock down jumpers from all distances while providing useful length and athleticism for his position. 

77. Kent Bazemore, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 90)
76. Jeremy Lin, PG, Brooklyn Nets (SI: Unranked)

Lin was one of the most valuable players on an overachieving Hornets team last season, and now he's in Brooklyn to play second fiddle to Brook Lopez. If he stays healthy, Lin will post career bests across the board, with the exception being that astonishing run of "Linsanity" with the Knicks. He's a smart player who can penetrate and shoot, while always playing with a ton of passion. Brooklyn's fanbase is certainly going to love him. 

75. Tony Parker, PG, San Antonio Spurs (SI: Unranked)

Clint Capela (79) and Nikola Jokic (78) are in SI's top 80, and Tony Parker isn't on their list at all. I'm going to stop this blurb right here, before I have a coronary. 

74. Serge Ibaka, PF/C, Orlando Magic (SI: 42)

Another glorified role player. SI absolutely loves bigs and role players, so it makes sense to see Serge at 42 on their ridiculous list. He's a good mid-range shooter who has stretched beyond the three-point arc, but he's never developed a back-to-the-basket game or all-around offensive repertoire. His defense is overrated because he's a flashy shotblocker. He disappears for stretches of games and weeks of seasons. He'll help the Magic, but he's not a top 50 player. 

73. Evan Fournier, SG, Orlando Magic (SI: 95)
72. Monta Ellis, SG, Indiana Pacers (SI: Unranked)

Exactly the type of player SI doesn't like: A veteran guard with plenty of postseason experience who can create off the dribble for himself and others. A crunchtime player who has the balls to make big shots. A baller with basketball in his blood. 

71. Dwight Howard, C, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 34!!!)

I've always been a Dwight defender, but he can barely get up and down the court these days! He's taken a beating in the paint for many years now. His back, flexibility and athleticism simply aren't what they used to be. He'll defend and rebound when he's physically capable of doing so, which will be around half of the time. That's not the 34th best player in the NBA. 

70. Brandon Knight, PG, Phoenix Suns (SI: 98)
69. Ryan Anderson, PF, Houston Rockets (SI: 89)
68. Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz (SI: 33!!!! I already discussed this travesty in another post.)
67. Eric Gordon, SG
66. Ben Simmons, G/F, Philadelphia 76ers (SI: Unranked)

We've all heard the hype that suggests he can become a top 10 all-around player, so I figured this was a nice, conservative projection based on his massive upside. His injury quickly knocked him out of top 50 consideration. Gotta love his size, athleticism, ball skills and versatility, though. 

65. J.J. Redick, SG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 59)
64. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Denver Nuggets (SI: Unranked)

Man, SI hates guards. Mudiay already flashed the ability to stuff the stat sheet as a rookie, he just needs to cut down on his turnovers. Denver is trending in the right direction, and Mudiay is positioned to grow alongside his young teammates Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic (yes, I know I made fun of him before, but you'll see him in my top 200 later on this week). 

63. Derrick Rose, PG, New York Knicks (SI: Unranked)

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62. Rudy Gay, SF, Sacramento Kings (SI: 80)
61. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: 92)
60. Jordan Clarkson, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (SI: Unranked???)

Huh? A young, high-upside, super athletic combo guard who has already displayed consistent NBA productivity isn't a top 100 guy? I guess he needs to block more shots or be a limited role player. 

59. Greg Monroe, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (SI: 63)
58. Nicolas Batum, SG/SF, Charlotte Hornets (SI: 43)
57. Tobias Harris, F, Detroit Pistons (SI: 77)
56. Jae Crowder, SF, Boston Celtics (SI: 53)
55. Derrick Favors, PF, Utah Jazz (SI: 28???)

When did Derrick Favors become an international superstar? When the Jazz made their breakout playoff run? No, neither of those things ever happened. He's a solid all-around professional power forward; not the 28th best player in the game. Come on, now. I promise you either Rob Mahoney or Ben Golliver is a Jazz fan. Or both. 

54. Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 71)
53. Devin Booker, G/F, Phoenix Suns

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52. Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat (SI: 61)
51. Victor Oladipo, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 74)
50. Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic (SI: 75)
49. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 22)

He's coming off injury and was already slow, lumbering and consistently overvalued. A savvy basketball player with an overrated skillset, Marc is right where he belongs at 49. Good defender, good passer, not a franchise player for an upper-echelon organization. 

48. Zach Randolph, PF, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 64)
47. Jeff Teague, PG, Indiana Pacers (SI: 57)
46. Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (SI: 39)
45. Eric Bledsoe, G, Phoenix Suns (SI: 49)
44. Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons (SI: 54)
43. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, New York Knicks (SI: 68)

When Steve Summer thinks I'm overrating someone, I'm obligated to explain: What more can you possibly want from a second-year player? Am I allowed to explain by asking a question? Porzingis is a friggin' giant with a ridiculous wingspan who can score, block shots and fit perfectly within an unselfish, team-oriented offensive system. He's the ideal pick-and-pop big -- who is gonna contest his silky, mid-range jumper with an Empire State Building release? Sky's the limit for this kid...corny pun intended. 

42. Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavs (SI: 30)
41. Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (SI: 58)

Punished for constantly getting injured. Ya gotta stay on the court. Talent wise, he's probably closer to the top 30. 

40. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 20)

My loyal readers know I absolutely despise DeAndre and his incessant hype, but I have to be unbiased here. I'm rewarding him for his durability, rebounding and shotblocking. I don't value role players highly on lists like these; but he's one of the better ones. 

39. Pau Gasol, C, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 41)
38. Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors (SI: 62)

One of my most improved players last season. Jonas' value was abundantly clear when he went down during the Raptors' ugly, opening-round playoff series against the Pacers. When he was on the floor, the Pacers were unable to get all the way to the rim, and it seemed impossible for them to come up with an offensive rebound. Jonas is humongous, coordinated, tough and diligent. He's uber-strong on the low block, and has a surprisingly nice touch at the foul line. Only reasons his numbers never balloon are hogs Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Keep the big fella involved!

37. Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 67) 

We all knew about his showstopping athleticism coming out of college, but he's already a more well-rounded scorer than I thought he'd be. Wiggins averaged 20.7 points per game at age 20, ahead of proven studs like John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki and LaMarcus Aldridge. Gotta think Thibs is gonna make him even better. 

36. Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, Utah Jazz (SI: 27)
35. DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors (SI: 46)

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34. Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 26)
33. Giannis Antetokounmpo, G/F, Milwaukee Bucks
32. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: 31)
31. Al Horford, C, Boston Celtics (SI: 18)

Notice anything about Bismack Biyombo, Thaddeus Young, Chandler Parsons, Serge Ibaka, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley and now Horford? SI got overexcited about players who got paid this offseason, or were involved in high-profile trades. It's a predictable psychological phenomenon -- the NBA offseason garners a significant amount of media attention, so these names seep into the collective unconscious of the writers, thus artificially inflating their values in lists like these. Horford is a technically-sound all-around basketball player, but there were many nights in Atlanta where you couldn't tell if he was better or more valuable than Jeff Teague, Kent Bazemore or Kyle Korver. His impact is surprisingly elusive at times. 

30. Danilo Gallinari, SF, Denver Nuggets (SI: 47)

A truly versatile scorer is the rarest commodity in professional basketball. Gallo can dribble drive left and right, pull-up, step-back, fade-away, pump-fake, draw contact, hit middies and treys. He's a go-to scorer, but he has to stay healthy. 

29. C.J. McCollum, SG, Portland Trail Blazers (SI: 50)

I don't think I've ever seen an NBA player complete a full transformation faster than C.J. McCollum. When he first came into the league he was overrated, overmatched and a little out of shape. He didn't know if he was a 2 or a 1, and neither did the Blazers. The result was an awkward player who was producing a net negative value rating. However, everything changed instantaneously during the opening round of the 2014-15 playoffs. The LaMarcus Aldridge/Nicolas Batum/Wesley Matthews era was coming to an unceremonious end during a first round beating at the hands of the higher-class Spurs, but one Blazer refused to go quietly: He was, of course, McCollum. In that series, C.J. dedicated himself to the "attack" message that Terry Stotts is always preaching, and the former's confidence has remained intact since. McCollum is now a lightning-quick, hyper-aggressive, dangerous volume scorer who keeps opposing defenders on their heels alongside Damian Lillard. Both Portland guards have blazing releases.

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28. Isaiah Thomas, PG, Boston Celtics (SI: 45)
27. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls (SI: 16)
26. Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat
25. Dwyane Wade, SG, Chicago Bulls (SI: 32)

Within the organization, the Bulls are calling it "Jimmy Butler's team," but I still think that under duress, D-Wade will carry you more effectively than Butler can. Wade was, once again, one of the premier offensive focal points last postseason. His pacing, control and crunchtime one-on-one prowess place him comfortably among the all-time greats. He's still a fantastic all-around player, and his big-game experience is invaluable. 

24. Draymond Green, F/C, Golden State Warriors (SI: 13)
23. Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons (SI: 29)
22. Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets (SI: 38)

People always say I'm a "homer" when it comes to my Brook Lopez rankings, but I'm as unbiased as they come. When the Mets suck, I let everybody know about it, and when the Jets suck, I sing it to the world. So when I tell you that Brook Lopez is the 22nd best player in the world, rest assured you can believe me. 

Behind megastars like Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson, Lopez is one of the best offensive centers I've ever seen. He's huge but has an unbelievably soft touch, which makes him a high-percentage finisher around the cup, as well as one of the elite mid-range shooters at his position. Brook is also extremely coordinated, and when you consider the headaches that bigs like Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond cause at the foul line, the former's 75-82% free throw shooting becomes invaluable. Brook's also a drastically underrated shot blocker.

21. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 11)

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20. Paul Millsap, F/C, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 15)
19. John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards (SI: 17)
18. Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors (SI: 14)
17. Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors (SI: 19)
16. Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
15. Carmelo Anthony, F, New York Knicks (SI: 24)
14. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Sacramento Kings (SI: 12)

I punished him for consistent disciplinary issues, as well as his inability to elevate the collective play of his surrounding cast. Cousins is an all-world, all-around talent who is limited by his childish behavior and lack of professionalism. 

13. Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans (SI: 8)

Davis is easier to get along with than Cousins, but has some similar issues: (1) Gets down on himself and teammates when things aren't going well. (2) Doesn't make his teammates any better. (3) Hasn't yet proven to be a go-to guy on a team to be reckoned with. Also, rather obviously, he's injury-prone. 

12. Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 10)
11. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 23)

Not sure I've ever seen anyone quite like this kid -- he's a mentally and physically stronger version of Anthony Davis, with a more electric two-way repertoire. There's no question he'll end up one of the top 10 players in the universe; likely top 5. Just need to see the Wolves create a winning culture, first. 

10. Paul George, F, Indiana Pacers (SI: 9)
9. Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (SI: 8)
8. Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (SI: 25)

I've had so many arguments about Kyrie that I'm getting a bit sick of it, but I'll explain myself again briefly: How many players in the world can consistently get all the way to the rim with their right or left, draw fouls, post-up, pull-up, hit mid-range shots with ease, fade-aways and hit threes? The answer is LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard and last but not least, Kyrie Irving. Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook don't feature post-ups. That's how rare Kyrie is -- he's the perfect offensive machine. Not to mention that he has balls of steel and is an immensely entertaining player to watch. Kyrie's the man; you can't convince me otherwise. That SI ranking is a f--king tragedy. Open your eyes! Use common sense! Forget the absurd metrics. 

7. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 6)

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6. Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 4)
5. James Harden, G/F, Houston Rockets (SI: 7)
4. Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 5)
3. Kevin Durant, SF, Golden State Warriors (SI: 2)
2. Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors (SI: 3)

Splitting hairs between KD and Steph. I'm giving Steph the temporary nod because he was still the most dominant regular-season player for the second-straight year. Just needs to stop sucking in the NBA Finals.

1. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers: There is only one King. 

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

2016-17 NBA Preseason Predictions: The Warriors Have Kevin Durant. Should We Just Cancel the Season?

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Between the simultaneous excitement of the MLB playoffs and NFL regular season, it's sometimes difficult for me to find the inspiration to write about the NBA this time of year. Unfortunately, my Mets were bounced quickly so I'm not as invested in the postseason. That leads us to this (comments will be short; I'll let the letter grades do the talking):

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

1. Toronto Raptors - 2015-16 record: 56-26; 2016-17 projected record: 56-26
Starting five: A-, Bench: B-, Head Coach: B-
Rank in East: 2nd, Overall: 8th

I like the affordable pick-up of PF Jared Sullinger. He should outperform his contract, and there's no pressure on him playing alongside Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas. "Big V" showed some real solid improvement last season, and he should continue to deliver this year. 

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2. Boston Celtics - 2015-16 record: 48-34; 2016-17 projected record: 50-32
Starting five: B+, Bench: B-, Head Coach: A-
Rank in East: 3rd, Overall: 9th

Al Horford will improve this team on both ends of the floor. Not enough to compete for a title, though. 

3. New York Knicks - 2015-16 record: 32-50; 2016-17 projected record: 42-40
Starting five: B, Bench: C, Head Coach: B
Rank in East: 8th, Overall: 20th

Phil Jackson did what he had to do -- without much in the way of trade assets, he acquired players that other teams are hesitant about, due to on or off-court issues; or in one case, both. If Derrick Rose is able to walk away from his serious legal problems without a massive suspension, he should be the 3rd scorer the Knicks are looking for next to Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. Head coach Jeff Hornacek is definitely an upgrade over both Derek Fisher and stopgap Kurt Rambis. This team should squeak into a back-end playoff spot, but Rose, Brandon Jennings and Joakim Noah are always at risk of injury. 

4. Brooklyn Nets - 2015-16 record: 21-61; 2016-17 projected record: 26-56
Starting five: D, Bench: B-, Head Coach: B
Rank in East: 14th, Overall: 28th

There isn't much talent on this roster, but my Nets will play right thanks to new head coach Kenny Atkinson and GM Sean Marks. The Nets will play unselfishly, move the ball and do everything they can to outwork their opponents on a nightly basis. This organization is headed in the right direction; they simply don't have the players right now. 

5. Philadelphia 76ers - 2015-16 record: 10-72; 2016-17 projected record: 16-66
Starting five: D+, Bench: D, Head Coach: D+
Rank in East: 15th, Overall: 30th

I could go on for days about this discombobulated franchise. I'll dedicate a separate column to that. For now, I'll just say that the Ben Simmons injury was a killer. No hope, yet. 

Central Division

1. Cleveland Cavaliers - 2015-16 record: 57-25; 2016-17 projected record: 57-25
Starting five: A, Bench: C+, Coach: B+
Rank in East: 1st, Overall: 4th

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My only concern is their bench -- it looks a little thin. In the end, they just have to keep LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love healthy. It's their conference to win or lose. They pretty much control their own destiny. 

2. Detroit Pistons - 2015-16 record: 44-38; 2016-17 projected record: 46-36
Starting five: B, Bench: B-, Head Coach: A
Rank in East: 5th, Overall: 11th

Ouch. The injury to Reggie Jackson stings. I was high on this team throughout the offseason. Luckily for the Pistons and their fans, Stan Van Gundy is a savvy all-around basketball mind, and he snatched Ish Smith for below his true market value. He will be a relatively productive replacement in the meantime. Having Tobias Harris for an entire season will certainly help, and I've always liked both Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris. Stanley Johnson is a tough kid, as well. 

3. Indiana Pacers - 2015-16 record: 45-37; 2016-17 projected record: 45-37
Starting five: B+, Bench: B, Head Coach: C+
Rank in East: 6th, Overall: 12th

Personnel upgrades in Jeff Teague, Al Jefferson and Thaddeus Young, accompanied by a head coaching downgrade from Frank Vogel to Nate McMillan. Larry Bird should have given Vogel another shot with this new talent pool. 

4. Chicago Bulls - 2015-16 record: 42-40; 2016-17 projected record: 35-47
Starting five: B, Bench: C+, Head Coach: D
Rank in East: 11th, Overall: 25th

Fred Hoiberg is one of the worst head coaches in the NBA, and a starting lineup featuring both Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade doesn't have enough perimeter shooting in today's trey-happy league. 

5. Milwaukee Bucks - 2015-16 record: 33-49; 2016-17 projected record: 29-53
Starting five: D+, Bench: B+, Head Coach: C+
Rank in East: 13th, Overall: 27th

This club can't survive the devastating injury to Khris Middleton. They simply need his perimeter shooting and all-around scoring. Head coach Jason Kidd alienates his players by altering his rotation on a nightly basis, and key pieces Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams are already in limbo. Still can't believe they traded their primary scorer, Brandon Knight, for Carter-Williams a couple years back. Head-scratching move at the deadline. 

Southeast Division

1. Orlando Magic - 2015-16 record: 35-47; 2016-17 projected record: 47-35
Starting five: B-, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A
Rank in East: 4th, Overall: 10th

Serge Ibaka has been getting all of the offseason hype, but he's not the sole reason why the Magic are going to make "the leap" this season. It's really a combination of things: The obvious coaching upgrade to Frank Vogel, the combined additions of Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo, D.J. Augustin and Jeff Green, as well as the expected development of both Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja. This is a deep team with a lot of similar players, so it will be Vogel's job to manage the minutes correctly. I think he can do it. 

2. Washington Wizards - 2015-16 record: 41-41; 2016-17 projected record: 43-39
Starting five: B, Bench: B-, Head Coach: C-
Rank in East: 7th, Overall: 19th 

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It's very simple for this team: They have to keep John Wall and Bradley Beal healthy, and Markieff Morris out of trouble. I always like when a team sneakily picks up Marcus Thornton for a bench spark. I don't know what to say about the hiring of Scott Brooks, though. The guy is literally a mindless robot

3. Charlotte Hornets - 2015-16 record: 48-34; 2016-17 projected record: 41-41
Starting five: C+, Bench: B-, Head Coach: A-
Rank in East: 9th, Overall: 21st

The costly losses of Jeremy Lin, Al Jefferson and Courtney Lee bring the Hornets down a notch. Steve Clifford is an underrated head coach, though. He'll keep them in the back-end playoff race with the Wizards, Knicks, Hawks and Bulls. 

4. Atlanta Hawks - 2015-16 record: 48-34, 2016-17 projected record: 38-44
Starting five: C+, Bench: C+, Head Coach: B+
Rank in East: 10th, Overall: 24th

Jeff Teague downgraded to Dennis Schroder and Al Horford downgraded to Dwight Howard. This organization is no longer heading in the right direction. 

5. Miami Heat - 2015-16 record: 48-34, 2016-17 projected record: 31-51
Starting five: D+, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A
Rank in East: 12th, Overall: 26th

Gone are productive vets Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. What's left isn't a very good team. Erik Spoelstra is their second-most valuable asset behind Hassan Whiteside

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Pacific Division

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1. Golden State Warriors - 2015-16 record: 73-9; 2016-17 projected record: 68-14
Starting five: A+, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A-
Rank in West: 1st, Overall: 1st

The Golden State Warriors now have Kevin Durant. Goodbye. 

2. Los Angeles Clippers - 2015-16 record: 53-29; 2016-17 projected record: 63-19
Starting five: A-, Bench: A-, Head Coach: A
Rank in West: 2nd, Overall: 2nd

They need to keep Chris Paul and Blake Griffin healthy, all the way through the playoffs. I like that Doc Rivers keeps fighting off the word "rebuild." The Clips have the talent...they just need to get lucky for once. 

3. Sacramento Kings - 2015-16 record: 33-49; 2016-17 projected record: 43-39
Starting five: B-, Bench: B, Head Coach: A
Rank in West: 7th, Overall: 13th

Finally, the dysfunctional Kings franchise did a few things that make logical sense! They canned toxic George Karl and hired uber-underrated Dave Joerger, and stabilized their shooting guard position with the un-flashy acquisition of Arron Afflalo. I think Joerger can clean up the mess in Sacramento. Furthermore, it's always nice to have talent like DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay and even Darren Collison

4. Phoenix Suns - 2015-16 record: 23-59; 2016-17 projected record: 41-41
Starting five: B-, Bench: B+, Head Coach: B-
Rank in West: 9th, Overall: 15th

It's abundantly clear that young head coach Earl Watson loves his job and players. He's probably the most enthusiastic coach in the league at the moment. I like his decision to ask Brandon Knight to carry his second unit, and clearly Devin Booker is a breakout player to watch with the starters. Talk about a mature kid, both on and off the court. Alex Len should also emerge a bit more this season, as Tyson Chandler fades away toward eventual retirement. This is a spunky little team. I think they'll compete for a back-end playoff spot. 

5. Los Angeles Lakers - 2015-16 record: 17-65; 2016-17 projected record: 39-43
Starting five: B-, Bench: C+, Head Coach: A-
Rank in West: 12th, Overall: 18th

The most valuable quality that new head coach Luke Walton brings is the necessary ability to instill confidence in his players. He's going to pump these young kids full of unfounded swag. I've never been a D'Angelo Russell fan, but he did flash some ability to stuff the stat sheet during the second half of the 2015-16 campaign; I've always liked Jordan Clarkson, whereas Julius Randle is in the same boat with Russell; rookie Brandon Ingram needs to be a producer for this second unit, and I think Timofey Mozgov is going to surprise the haters out there. If everything breaks exactly right, the Lakers might stay in the playoff hunt with the Kings, Nuggets, Suns, Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies. 

Southwest Division

1. San Antonio Spurs - 2015-16 record: 67-15; 2016-17 projected record: 62-20
Starting five: A-, Bench: B+, Head Coach: A+
Rank in West: 3rd, Overall: 3rd

Pau Gasol replaces Tim Duncan (thanks for a jaw-dropping career, Timmy!). Everything else is status quo in Pop's enviable organization. 

2. Dallas Mavericks - 2015-16 record: 42-40; 2016-17 projected record: 50-32
Starting five: B, Bench: B, Head Coach: A+
Rank in West: 6th, Overall: 7th

If Pop retired, Rick Carlisle would immediately ascend to the No. 1 spot on the coaches' chart. The guy just quietly goes about being a basketball genius. How did he make the playoffs in the West with a team that required key contributions from Salah Mejri and Raymond Felton? I'm quite confident that J.J. Barea was their best player at one point. Anyway, Warrior rejects Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut have been added to the Mavs mix, and I'm sure Carlisle will figure out the optimal ways to utilize them.  Wesley Matthews should be healthier and more consistently productive this season, and I like Dallas' young bench featuring the entertainingly energetic Justin Anderson, Dwight Powell and newly-acquired Seth Curry. This team isn't bad, and its record will end up even better than it should be. 

3. Houston Rockets - 2015-16 record: 41-41; 2016-17 projected record: 40-42
Starting five: B-, Bench: C+, Head Coach: A-
Rank in West: 11th, Overall: 17th

I like the additions of Mike D'Antoni, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, but how the hell is this team going to defend without Dwight Howard protecting the rim? Howard's clearly on the downside of his career, but the Rockets have little-to-no presence in the paint. They should be among the team leaders in scoring, but they'll be in the bottom five or 10 defensively. A postseason appearance will be a tough sell. 

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4. Memphis Grizzlies - 2015-16 record: 42-40; 2016-17 projected record: 39-43
Starting five: B, Bench: C+, Head Coach: C+
Rank in West: 13th, Overall: 22nd

Why any organization would willingly go from Dave Joerger to David Fizdale is beyond me. Joerger was one of the top overachievers in the game last season; he guided the beat-up and broken-down Grizz into the playoffs with Vince Carter and Matt Barnes leading the way. There's a title for someone who can do that: Miracle-worker. In other news, I'm just over this team. Marc Gasol has always been wildly overrated, Mike Conley hasn't been himself in recent seasons and Chandler Parsons is the Sam Bradford of the NBA: Looks good, sounds good, gets hurt all the time and never produces the way you think he will. I love my boy Zach Randolph, but I hope this team fails. 

5. New Orleans Pelicans - 2015-16 record: 30-52; 2016-17 projected record: 28-54
Starting five: C, Bench: C-, Head Coach: C
Rank in West: 15th, Overall: 29th

Anthony Davis is already banged up, Tyreke Evans has no timetable for return (as usual), Jrue Holiday has some serious family issues to attend to, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are gone, and Alvin Gentry got absolutely nothing out of this team last year. It's looking grim once again. 

Northwest Division

1. Portland Trail Blazers - 2015-16 record: 44-38; 2016-17 projected record: 53-29
Starting five: B+, Bench: B, Head Coach: A
Rank in West: 4th, Overall: 5th

I've said this before and I'll say it again: The Blazers are the mini-Warriors. Think about it. You have the young, talented, shot-happy backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum (their version of The Splash Brothers); Al-Farouq Aminu, the swingman who does a little bit of everything (Draymond), and a bunch of long, lanky, athletic hustlers who do whatever they can to help the team. For the Blazers that's Mason Plumlee, Ed Davis and Moe Harkless, and for the Warriors that's Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and used to be Leandro Barbosa. Both teams feature head coaches who encourage their guys to play without fear, the severely-underrated Terry Stotts and of course, Steve Kerr. The Blazers even picked up Evan Turner who, I promise you, is going to be used exactly like Iguodala. Copycatting is real. 

2. Minnesota Timberwolves - 2015-16 record: 29-53; 2016-17 projected record: 51-31
Starting five: B+, Bench: B, Head Coach: A
Rank in West: 5th, Overall: 6th

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I can't possibly fathom a coaching transition more influential than Sam Mitchell to Tom Thibodeau. Instead of developing his young, talented players, Mitchell was starting washed-up vets like Kevin Garnett and Tayshaun Prince. He literally had no idea what he was doing (kind of like Todd Bowles for my Jets). With "Thibs" now at the helm, it's all very simple: The right guys are going to play, they will exert defensive effort and young players will reach their potential. I think it'll be a quick and impressive transition. 

3. Denver Nuggets - 2015-16 record: 33-49; 2016-17 projected record: 42-40
Starting five: B, Bench: B, Head Coach: B-
Rank in West: 8th, Overall: 14th

I haven't had anything nice to say about the Nuggets for a long, long time, but things finally appear to be looking up for them. Mike Malone was surprisingly ineffective his first year on the job, but he should be able to turn it around with established players like Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried, and rising contributors such as Emmanuel Mudiay, Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Harris. Their talent pool has gradually expanded and they've been doing things the right way, so hopefully they'll be rewarded. It'll be a dogfight for the 8-seed. 

4. Oklahoma City Thunder - 2015-16 record: 55-27; 2016-17 projected record: 41-41
Starting five: A-, Bench: C-, Head Coach: B-
Rank in West: 10th, Overall: 16th

My gut tells me the Thunder will be better than my ranking system suggests. I have an inordinate amount of faith in Russell Westbrook, and I like OKC's bigs, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. However, their bench looks crappy, I wasn't particularly impressed by Billy Donovan in year one and I'm up in the air on Victor Oladipo. He has talent, but I question his effort. He may not mesh with Russ and his balls-to-the-wall style. This is a difficult team to gauge. 

5. Utah Jazz - 2015-16 record: 40-42; 2016-17 projected record: 34-48
Starting five: C+, Bench: B, Head Coach: B-
Rank in West: 14th, Overall: 23rd

A bunch of mediocre players playing for a mediocre coach, and they won't be able to overachieve without Gordon Hayward at 100 percent. 

THE POSTSEASON


Eastern Conference Finals:  Cleveland Cavs over Toronto Raptors, 4-2
Western Conference Finals:  Golden State Warriors over Los Angeles Clippers, 4-2

NBA FINALS: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS OVER CLEVELAND CAVS, 4-2

As always, all questions, comments and complaints are welcome. Thanks for reading!

Late-Night Boredom Reviews: The Shallows, The Walk and The Night Before

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Anyone who has experience with adult relationships knows that most couples are split into two, distinct classifications: The Early Bird and The Night Owl. In my own personal relationship, my beautiful girlfriend is The Early Bird, and I'm The Night Owl. That means when she passes out around 10 p.m., I'm usually awake watching movies. 

And I'm certain I'm not the only one. So "Late-Night Boredom Reviews," as always, are dedicated to all of the lovers who stay up looking for random films to watch. 

THE WALK (2015)

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The Walk is based on the true story of Philippe Petit (Gordon-Levitt), a high-wire artist who decided it would be a good idea to walk from one Twin Tower to the other back in 1974. The idea alone is fascinating; but the film takes a little too long to catch its footing. 

Gordon-Levitt is game and energetic as Petit, but the primary problem with his casting is that we know he isn't a Frenchman. That fact was immediately distracting to me; but Gordon-Levitt is so persistent that, thankfully, the distraction fades a bit as the movie progresses. As a man, Petit is a somewhat annoying, one-trick pony with little regard for others, so it's often difficult to care about him throughout the expository first half of the film.

However, Robert Zemeckis' wizardry in special effects elevates the second half and produces a number of exhilarating highs. For our casual moviegoers, Zemeckis is best known for directing smash hits such as Back to the FutureForrest Gump and Cast Away. I would also recommend checking out his extraordinary effects in the Jodie Foster vehicle, Contact (1997). Once "The Walk" shifts away from Petit's background and toward the dogged pursuit of his dream, the momentum picks up and we begin to feel the magnitude of the stakes. 

Petit's plan -- which is often referred to as "The Coup" -- requires a handful of "accomplices," namely his girlfriend Annie (a likable Charlotte Le Bon), and a few of their friends. Of the supporting men, the only performance worth noting is that of James Badge Dale (whom you may recognize as the man who murdered Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed). Dale, who was intentionally bland in The Departed, showcases a whole 'nother side here: He's versatile, funny and injects necessary energy into an otherwise forgettable ensemble. 

In the end, the strength of "The Walk" is, well, the walk itself. WARNING: If you have a perfectly-reasonable fear of heights (like me), the final half-hour of this film may be extremely hard to stomach. Let's just say that I'm glad I saw this in my bedroom on Starz, as opposed to an IMAX 3-D theater. I probably would have passed out. The climax is something I haven't seen before; so that's a victory in itself. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING:  7 out of 10 **

THE SHALLOWS (2016)

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I'm generally a sucker for ensembles overstuffed with A-list stars, so it's a bit abnormal for me to review consecutive films that revolve around one, single lead. "JGL" in The Walk, and now the lovely Ms. Lively (or should we say, Mrs. Reynolds?) in The Shallows

This film paints itself into a weird little corner; essentially, if you've seen the trailer, then you've seen the movie. One could reasonably think, given that information, that The Shallows should instantaneously be dismissed as cookie-cutter crap. And yet, somehow, it isn't. It's actually quite entertaining. 

Story wise, The Shallows is exactly what you think it is: Nancy (Lively) wants to get away from the world, so she seeks out a secluded beach for some peaceful surfing. Unfortunately, there's nothing peaceful about a f--king vicious shark attack. Nancy ends up stranded at sea, bouncing between rocks and buoys in a spirited effort to stay alive long enough for someone to find her. 

Yes, it's Cast Away with Lively's sexy body replacing Tom Hanks' hairy chest. She even has a sidekick like Wilson; hers is a loyal, wounded bird. The bird, like Wilson, is both cute and likable. 

I don't usually support movies that blatantly borrow from others, but The Shallows does enough visually and conceptually to distinguish itself as a standalone work. The fun of the film is watching Nancy's ingenuity in staying one step ahead of the unbelievably massive shark, which looks real to me (great CGI). Collet-Serra gives us a gorgeous location and some fancy directorial flourishes, while Lively carries the action with aplomb. 

The CGI is clean, the action is pulse-pounding and the editing is economical. The Shallows is a fun film if you watch it for what it is. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING:  7.5 out of 10 **

THE NIGHT BEFORE (2015)

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Within the first minute or two of The Night Before, I found myself thinking, this is going to be my kind of movie. We have Seth Rogen and JGL, two of my absolute favorite people in Hollywood, and a story that elicits some comparisons to my own personal life. The older I get, the more I realize that our favorite movies are those that speak to us at particular stages of our lives. 

But alas, The Night Before is not going to become one of my faves.  The setup is intriguing and well thought out -- three lifelong friends, Ethan (JGL), Isaac (Rogen) and Chris (Anthony Mackie) confront the end of a holiday tradition as they crossover into adulthood -- but the delivery just isn't there. The first 45 minutes or so are very funny, but Jonathan Levine (who wrote the successful Warm Bodies and directed the wonderful 50/50) starts running out of ideas around the midway point. 

The trio of leads exhibit completely believable chemistry, but their individual storylines burn out like Christmas Eve candles. We're waiting for Playstation 4 under the tree, and instead we get like, GameCube or Dreamcast. 

Nevertheless, The Night Before has its heart in the right place, and laughs are generated by Chris' "Social Media Game" and steroid use, as well as Isaac's unsuspected battle with a number of extremely potent drugs. Rogen and Mackie are the comic relief, as JGL holds down the emotional center of the story. 

Lizzy Caplan and Gordon-Levitt have a lovely ease to their romantic chemistry; the latter also paired well with fellow brunettes Zooey Deschanel (500 Days of Summer) and Anna Kendrick (50/50) in the past. This is a likable guy matched with equally likable women. It's a safe and logical Hollywood formula. 

The Night Before starts strong and ends pretty well, but stumbles through the middle innings. It's still funny at times and ultimately worth seeing. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING:  7 out of 10 **

Many thanks for joining me for the Grand Opening of "Late-Night Boredom." Here's a list of possible reviews to come:

10 Cloverfield Lane (2016)
The Mexican (2001)
Atari: Game Over (2014)
Deadpool (2016)
Ghost World (2001)
Ratatouille (2007)
The Score (2001)
The Revenant (2015)
Untraceable (2008)
The Cabin in the Woods (2012)
A Perfect Murder (1998)
Sisters (2015)
Backdraft (1991)
The Royal Tenenbaums (2001)

And many more...