Photo Credit: Green Bay Packers
Odell Beckham Jr., Saquon Barkley and Jimmy Garoppolo led the way in Part 6 of my NFL Top 100 series. Before we get to Part 7, here's my ranking criteria, again:
1. 50% of the weight: "The Eye Test" - my own personal assessment of the player's talent, productivity and overall impact on winning. This has to come first, otherwise it wouldn't be my list.
2. 20%: Stats. The raw numbers.
3. 10%: Impact on winning in pressure situations and most importantly, the playoffs.
4. 10%: The experts over at Pro Football Focus really know their stuff; they examine every single play of the NFL season, and I trust their detailed analyses. I'm giving 10% of the weight to their 2019 Top 101 NFL Players.
5. 10%: Recent Pro Bowl selections. Thanks to the coaches, players and fans to their contributions, here.
Please note: I use logic. The quarterback position is the most influential in all of professional sports, and I absolutely take that into account (PFF does not, in their rankings).
40. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
-2019 Key Stat: 1,057 yds/8 TDs
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #77 overall player
Here's the most improved wide receiver in the NFL - a quiet star. Lockett's receiving yards have increased steadily, from 555 to 965 to 1,057 over the past three seasons. His receptions have also increased, from 45 to 57 to 82. He came into the league with hype because of his individual explosiveness, but his role was in question. Was he a gamebreaking return player? A gadget player meant to bounce between the traditional passing game, end-arounds and motion toss plays? We know the answers to all of those questions, now: Lockett is the No. 1 receiver for (arguably) the best quarterback in the world. Seattle was struggling in the "weapon" department for a while, but now Russell Wilson has Lockett and D.K. Metcalf on the outside. The Seahawks' offense is an entirely different animal, now. And before I move on, let me just say...Lockett fights for tough catches. He may be tiny, but he's one of the toughest wide receivers in the game.
39. Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
-2019 Key Stat: 27 TDs/only 7 INTs
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked
He finally plays 16 regular season games...then he goes down early in the Eagles' ugly playoff loss to the aforementioned Seahawks. Just sad and unlucky. Wentz is a tough kid - as we've seen from his constant efforts to come back strong - and he's actually coming off a very efficient season under center. Ya gotta love that 27/7 split, while guys like Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott - who admittedly had big years - had 10+ interceptions. Wentz protected the ball well, and his teammates really rally around him. Here's to hoping he remains healthy throughout the regular season and playoffs, this time around.
38. Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys
-2019 Key Stat: 1,189 yds/8 TDs
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #64 overall player
Amari's been in the news plenty this offseason, first signing the big contract with the Cowboys, then being called "a turd" by former NFL head coach Rex Ryan. Obviously, Rex took it WAY too far, but the comment was related to the perception that Amari's effort level comes and goes. And yeah, I can kind of see where the haters are coming from with that. Amari can look like the best all-around receiver in the game; but other times you may not even notice he's out there. He disappeared on the Raiders more often than the Cowboys, but either way it's a concerning issue. But let's talk about the positives...top-10 in receiving yards and touchdowns, and he's one of the most naturally gifted players at his position. He's going to be a real problem this season, as Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb take some of the defensive attention away from him. It's near impossible to contain Amari without a double.
37. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
-2019 Key Stat: 16 rushing TDs (most in the game)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. (Biggest snub!)
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #56 overall player
I'm not a Packer fan. I have no particular vested interest in their team...but I was pissed when Jones got left off the NFC Pro Bowl roster. Rookie HC Matt LaFleur came in with a plan, and that plan was the opposite of his predecessor Mike McCarthy: let's balance our offensive attack by decreasing the number of Aaron Rodgers' pass attempts. And that plan worked about as well as it possibly could, with much of the credit going to Jones. The Packers were 7-9 in 2017 and 6-9-1 in '18, and LaFleur turned that completely around with a 13-3 season and a well-deserved trip to the NFC Championship Game (where they were outclassed by the superior 49ers). Jones was the tone-setter. LaFleur kept him fresh by bouncing Jamaal Williams in and out of the lineup. Jones was electric and effective the entire season. Most importantly, he finished plays in the redzone. Jones' redzone efficiency was simply out of this world. In terms of "The Eye Test" - Jones was easily one of the best and most impactful players I saw all year.
36. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
-2019 Key Stat: 1,357 yds/12 TDs
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked
You know what? Aaron Jones looked better than Zeke this past season. But I can't base everything on The Eye Test, nor can I base everything on a single season. Zeke has been a workhorse for four-straight seasons now, leading the NFL in carries in both 2016 and 2018. This past season he was over 300 carries again. Jerry Jones and his front office have built this Cowboys' team around Zeke and an elite offensive line...but where, exactly, has that gotten them? That's the hold up with Zeke, in terms of rankings. On a bigger scale, this is similar to what I wrote about Saquon Barkley in my last article - how important is the running back position? How much impact does the position have on winning? We saw the Jaguars make a solid run building around Leonard Fournette; but that didn't last long. The Titans did it this past season with Derrick Henry; but will it be sustainable? I just don't know. There are 32 teams and each front office is going to strategize differently, but I can't really sign off on this particular strategy. SPOILER ALERT: I only have four running backs in my top 30, and only two of those made my top 20. None of them made my top 10. This is just my stance on the position. Zeke is a tough guy who can really take a hit...but where has he gotten Dallas?
35. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
-2019 Key Stat: 4,902 yds (2nd-most)/30 TDs (4th)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #93 overall player
It's just a coincidence that Amari, Zeke and Dak are all bunched up in this portion of my list. They are all very good players, relative to their positions. But...Dak has become the most underrated of the three. I cannot believe that people are talking about Andy Dalton as Dak's potential replacement. Dalton is a decent-enough NFL quarterback, but he's two or three tiers below Dak at this point. Look at Prescott's development: went from 3,324 to 3,885 to 4,902 in yards. Went from 22 to 30 in passing TDs. Went from 308 to 356 to 388 in completions. He's improving on paper, and - most importantly - when you watch him play with your own two eyes. When Dak took over, the Cowboys' offense was initially built like Mark Sanchez's Jets or Blake Bortles' Jags - run the ball a lot, use playaction and limit throws to one or two reads on the same side of the field - but it's totally different now. Dak makes much quicker reads and spreads the ball around the field. Don't forget...scrambling quarterbacks create havoc, too. Prescott is one of the best in that area, especially near the goal line where he's unafraid to take a vicious hit. He'd be in my top 30 if the Cowboys had beaten out the Eagles for the NFC East title.
34. Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings
-2019 Key Stat: 107.4 QB rating (4th-best)/only 6 picks
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #79 overall player
Gotta throw the two controversial quarterbacks back-to-back, right? Cousins is a guy that people love to hate. People love to knock this poor guy; but I look at him with an unbiased eye. Seemingly every year, he's one of the best statistical quarterbacks in the game. Let's look back...in 2016, Cousins was 3rd in yards and 7th in QB rating. In 2017, he was 7th in passing yards, ahead of Russell Wilson. In '18, he was 10th in QB rating, 10th in yards and 9th in TDs. And this past season, Cousins was 4th in QB rating, while tossing only six picks. How about games played? He played 16 games four seasons in a row, before taking one game off in '19. He's tough. He hangs in the pocket and makes big-time throws. He can take a hit. What more do you want from this guy? Everyone used to jump on his lack of playoff success, but did anyone really project the Vikings to take down the Saints this postseason? Vegas had the Saints as big favorites. The game came down to Cousins. In overtime, he dropped an absolute dime to Adam Thielen. Then, he immediately followed that up with a perfect redzone TD toss to Kyle Rudolph. What more do you want the guy to do? He won the game, there, then the Vikings got outclassed by a much better 49ers' team. In the end, I have Cousins as my eighth-ranked quarterback. You know how hard that is to find? The eighth-best quarterback in the NFL? Give this man at least a little respect. He deserves it.
33. Richard Sherman, CB, San Francisco 49ers
-2019 Key Stat: Allowed only 227 yards, #1 in coverage (PFF)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #13 overall player
I'm gonna be honest with you...when the 49ers picked up Sherman, I thought it was a "coach on the field" kinda thing. Kind of like what my Jets did yesterday, picking up future Hall of Famer Frank Gore. Sherman was banged up and didn't make the Pro Bowl in 2017, so I figured his prime was probably winding down. I still thought it was a savvy move for Kyle Shanahan and San Fran - bring Sherman in to help these young kids along - but I had no idea Sherman could still have an elite impact on the field. He proved me wrong this past season. He earned the starting nod in the Pro Bowl, and PFF gave him their "Best Coverage Defender Award". And you could see it out there. Sherman was back. He knew his young-and-hungry Niners could make a serious run for the Super Bowl, and he pushed himself to the max. Unfortunately, the Super Bowl was probably his weakest performance of what was a true renaissance year. If he'd played better and the Niners won it all, I'm pretty sure he would have snuck into my top 30.
32. Harrison Smith, S, Minnesota Vikings
-2019 Key Stat: #2 in coverage (PFF)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #31 overall player
I bounced back and forth many times on this one...who has more of an impact on the Vikings' success, Smith or Cousins? It's really a tough one, because it's hard to ignore the sheer importance of the quarterback position in the NFL. But Smith is the Vikings. This is a physical team, one that has boasted some of the best defensive players in the game over the course of the past decade. You do not want to face this Vikings' D at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. It's the stuff of nightmares. Smith has been a Pro Bowler five seasons in a row. He's gotten the honor as both a free safety and strong safety. He can make dynamic plays on the ball, or knock a running back's head off like a vicious linebacker or lineman. He can do it all. I can't say a bad word about him.
31. Jamal Adams, SS, New York Jets
-2019 Key Stat: 25 QB pressures (#1 for safeties)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #32 overall player
Talk about splitting hairs between Smith and Adams. PFF and I don't agree on much, but they had Smith 31st and Adams 32nd. This is about as close as it gets. Smith has great flexibility within the safety positions, but I'm giving Jamal the nod because he has flexibility among all defensive positions (except DT). Jets DC Gregg Williams got the absolute most out of Adams his first year on the job, moving Jamal all over the field and giving him the freedom to be an aggressive, attack playmaker. Jamal responded in a major way. Sure, he's a Pro Bowl strong safety by nature, but he can also look like a linebacker or defensive end out there. He's one of the elite tacklers in the game, and he packs a serious punch. He's a well-liked and well-respected leader, too.
Tune in next time for my top 30!
ARCHIVE:
Part 6, Players 41-50
Part 5, Players 51-59
Part 4, Players 60-69
Part 3, Players 70-79
Part 2, Players 80-89
Part 1, Players 90-100
No comments:
Post a Comment