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1. 50% of the weight: My own personal assessment of the pitcher, based on stuff, stats, consistency, ballpark factors and whatever else floats into my mind. This has to get the most weight, otherwise it wouldn't be my list.
2. 20% of the weight: The story of the pitcher. Who is this guy, over time? For example, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are pretty f'n awesome every single year; that has to count for something, right? Conversely, guys like Ken Giles and Emilio Pagan have had fluctuating results. Guys like Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have had dramatically fluctuating results. You get the idea. Who are they, really?
3. 20% of the weight: 2019 Yahoo fantasy baseball ranking. The algorithm combines all statistics in a reasonable way, so this is very helpful. For starting pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Quality Starts and Wins. For relief pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and Saves. This ranking system doesn't include Holds, so I will have to evaluate the middle relievers and setup men on my own.
4. 10% of the weight: 2018 stats, and maybe a little consideration for 2017.
80. Caleb Smith, SP, Miami Marlins
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #67 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 168 K/153 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 88 K/77 innings
A 6'2" lefty, smooth as silk...those guys catch your eye on the hill, don't they? But Caleb is similar to Andrew Heaney - whom I ranked in my last installment - in that he's a lefty strikeout pitcher who hasn't yet been able to keep his ERA down. Also...he's not as young as you might think. He feels relatively new on the scene, but Smith is 28 years old. It's put up or shut up time. If we have an MLB season, this will be the time to see where he's at. Is he trending in the right direction, or is he really a 4.30/4.40 ish starting pitcher at the big-league level? He gets that lefty benefit of the doubt right now, but I can't do any better than No. 80 on my list.
79. Hector Neris, RP, Philadelphia Phillies
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #16 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 89 K/67 innings, 28 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 5.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 76 K/47 innings, 11 saves
Neris' storyline is pretty similar to Ken Giles' (whom I ranked No. 82). He's been one of the better relievers in his league, but 2018 marked a real down year. They both bounced back beautifully in '19. Like I always say, reliever performance fluctuates. I'm not gonna nitpick you, if you want to rank Giles or Raisel Iglesias or Brandon Workman ahead of Neris. They are all in a very similar area. I'm giving Neris the very slight edge here, because he's one of the few guys left to feature a devastating splitter, and Citizens Bank Park is an extremely difficult place to pitch. The fences feel like they are just outside of the infield.
78. Yonny Chirinos, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays
-2019 Yahoo Rankings: #17 RP, #48 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.85 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 114 K/133 innings, 18 starts, 8 relief
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 75 K/89 innings, 7 starts, 11 relief
I got love for these kinda pitchers - Chirinos doesn't bitch about his role. He does exactly what is asked of him. You see the splits, there...18 starts one year, 8 relief appearances...7 starts another year, 11 relief appearances; he's completely flexible. Most don't comprehend the immense value of a swingman like Chirinos. Like I wrote about Iglesias in my last installment, some pitchers don't respond when you mess with their roles. The Reds f'd around with Iglesias, and his performance faltered. That just hasn't happened with Chirinos, to date. He's an "opener", a middle guy, a long guy...he does it all. He's good at inducing groundballs when he needs to, too. Trust me, if other teams could do what the Rays do, they would. They just can't pull it off without guys like Chirinos and No. 76 on my list...
77. Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #61 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.84 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 150 K/150 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 5.12 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 183 K/172 innings
Jon Gray is just one of those frustrating guys. I had him in fantasy when he had that 5.12 ERA, so maybe that's why I find him frustrating. But not really, though. The kid has lights-out stuff. If you just watched him throw...like if you watched him during a bullpen session...you'd confuse him for an elite MLB pitcher. Everything he throws is crisp. He's very smooth for a big fella at 6'4", 227. But he walks guys. He loses his command. He's kind of like a right-handed Robbie Ray. These guys can be maddening. Of course, we have to cut Jonny a lot of slack due to Coors Field. I'd say he's actually one of the better Rockies' starting pitchers of all time. That may not be saying much, but it's a reality. To me, you take him out of Coors and he becomes a 3.90 guy, consistently, and his WHIP drops down into the 1.20s, even with the walks. He's intriguing and enticing, but not solid nor reliable.
76. Ryan Yarbrough, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays
-2019 Yahoo Rankings: #16 RP, #46 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.13 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 117 K/141 innings, 14 starts, 14 relief
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 128K/141 innings, 6 starts, 32 relief
He's the (slightly) better, left-handed version of Chirinos. When in doubt, go with the lefty, right? (No pun intended.) Yarbrough, like Chirinos and some other Rays, is a modern MLB pitcher. He's a "flex". He's been effective in every role he's been asked to fill. Only reason he's not in my top 70 is because I'd like to see that ERA come down from the 4.00 ERA range and land in the 3.50-3.75 range as a hyper-effective flex. He still has some room for growth and improvement, though. He's shown a clear commitment to working on his craft and evolving with the ever-changing times.
75. Ross Stripling, RP/SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
-2019 Yahoo Rankings: #53 RP, #96 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.47 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 93 K/90 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 136/122 innings
The more proven version of both Chirinos and Yarbrough. In the old days, we used to rank "starters", "closers" and "middle relievers" - and the starters and closers pretty much dominated the rankings. But this is a new era. Sure, we still have those three groups...but "middle relief" has been split into long men, middle men, specialists and setup men. And Stripling isn't even on that list. He's a flex, like the two aforementioned Rays; Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias, Seth Lugo, Carlos Martinez and John Gant (of course, there are others).
And damn, I feel bad for Stripling. The kid simply cannot catch a break. No matter how well he pitches, he can never lock down a rotation spot with the Dodgers. I think Alex Wood - who cannot stay healthy - is getting his rotation spot this year. He'll probably get hurt, then Stripling will have to bounce back-and-forth from the bullpen to the rotation. If no one will show Stripling any respect, I guess I have to...he might be the most underrated pitcher in baseball, particularly in terms of value.
74. Miles Mikolas, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #55 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 144 K/184 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146 K/200 innings
Maybe the trickiest guy to rank in this installment. Before taking off for Japan, Mikolas had a 6.44 ERA with the Rangers. Over 10 starts, he got his clock cleaned. Maybe he felt like he didn't belong anymore. Maybe he liked the money or culture in Japan. Or maybe Texas' hitter-friendly confines were the ultimate X-factor in his initial major league demise. But Mikolas starred overseas, and came back to the MLB with a vengeance in 2018. Did you know he led the National League in winning percentage (18-4 record)? He relentlessly attacked the strikezone, and his results were fantastic. He's a double-play inducer with a real heavy ball. But...ya gotta be (at least) a little worried about those '19 numbers, right? Did he return to the MLB with temporary magic? Is he trending back toward that 6.44 ERA of old? I don't think we have all the answers right now. Maybe he's a top-50 MLB pitcher. Maybe he's outside of the top 100. We should have enough information to evaluate after his next full season at this level.
73. German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #62 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 175 K/ 174 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 230 K/196 innings
It's pick your poison, when it comes to these two Rockies' right-handers. It's a matter of personal preference. I don't know if you can really distinguish between Marquez and Gray. But my gut tells me Marquez is the better of the two. 230 Ks in 196 innings as a Rocky? That's pretty much unheard of, right? He's consistently averaged right around 95 MPH with his fastball, and when he gets on top of the ball he reminds me of prime Carlos Zambrano. There isn't a lot of finesse in Marquez's game...but I like that about him. He'll challenge you. He toes the rubber and brings it. Hitters are going to get theirs at Coors anyway, so I like Marquez's strategy. Tip your cap to an old-fashioned "come and get it" pitcher.
72. Kenta Maeda, SP/RP, Minnesota Twins
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #9 RP, #37 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 169 K/153 innings, 26 starts, 11 relief
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.81 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 153 K/125 innings, 20 starts, 19 relief
I'm not generally too impressed when I watch this guy pitch. He's 32 years old, and sometimes his arm isn't completely loose. You can tell, because he's averaging around 90 MPH with his fastball, and the ball seems to be floating in there. But over the years, I've learned to block this sort of thing out. What does it matter if a guy's stuff doesn't look particularly great? I used to doubt Huston Street and he had a strong career. Trevor Hoffman is one of the greatest closers of all time. So obviously, it isn't all about stuff. So yeah, Maeda doesn't always look great to me, but the veteran has craft. He mixes speeds and deliveries, and when he's on, he can average around 94-95 (especially out of the bullpen). And again...these flex guys are immensely valuable. I respect Maeda for taking the ball, no matter what the situation. It will be very interesting to see how he transitions from the NL West to the AL Central. If he pitches well as a full-time starter for the Twins, I will definitely move him into my top 70 or 60.
71. Taylor Rogers, RP, Minnesota Twins
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #11 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 90 K/69 innings, 30 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.63 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 75 K, 68 innings, 2 saves
There was an opening back in 2018, and Rogers took advantage. At the time, the Twins were mixing-and-matching in the bullpen - Fernando Rodney, Trevor Hildenberger and Trevor May had also picked up saves - but Rogers clearly emerged as the best of the bunch. In '19 he got a hold of the job rather easily...because he earned it. He's a 6'3" lefty who strikes out more than a batter per inning; anyone surprised that the Twins have become enamored with him? Rogers is one of the best lefty relievers in the game now. In fact, he's one of the best overall.
70. Domingo German, SP, New York Yankees
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #27 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 153 K/143 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 5.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 102 K/85 innings
Initially I had German in the 60s, ahead of two fellow Yankees. I changed my mind, though, because again...I'm considering "the story" of the pitcher. And what's the story, here? German opened up last season looking like a Cy Young contender. While the Yankees suffered through a barrage of injuries, German announced himself as a major force on the hill - his 18-4 record (like Mikolas, earlier) led the American League. But he battled some injuries. Then, he embarrassed himself and the Yankee organization with serious domestic violence allegations. He let his whole team down when he was unable to finish the season. Now, he still has 81 games to serve on his lenient suspension. Obviously, this is a kid with questionable character. Felonious behavior cannot be ignored. He's probably a top 50 or 60 pitcher, but there's more to life than pure talent.
Tune in next time for the 60s!
ARCHIVE:
Part 1: Pitchers 90-100
Part 2: Pitchers 81-89
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