Photo Credit: Miami Herald
Jameson Taillon, Carlos Carrasco and Seth Lugo led the way in Part 1 of my MLB Top 100 Pitchers series. Before I get into Part 2, here's my ranking criteria (again):
1. 50% of the weight: My own personal assessment of the pitcher, based on stuff, stats, consistency, ballpark factors and whatever else floats into my mind. This has to get the most weight, otherwise it wouldn't be my list.
2. 20% of the weight: The story of the pitcher. Who is this guy, over time? For example, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are pretty f'n awesome every single year; that has to count for something, right? Conversely, guys like Ken Giles and Emilio Pagan have had fluctuating results. Guys like Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have had dramatically fluctuating results. You get the idea. Who are they, really?
3. 20% of the weight: 2019 Yahoo fantasy baseball ranking. The algorithm combines all statistics in a reasonable way, so this is very helpful. For starting pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Quality Starts and Wins. For relief pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and Saves. This ranking system doesn't include Holds, so I will have to evaluate the middle relievers and setup men on my own.
4. 10% of the weight: 2018 stats, and maybe a little consideration for 2017.
89. Julio Urias, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
-2019 Yahoo Rankings: #71 SP, #31 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.49 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 85 K/79 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 0.00 ERA in just 3 appearances
Sometimes you have to rank guys on "spec". Urias has consistently been touted as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he's still just 23 years old. He has real craft for his age, and his results have been very convincing in a relatively small sample size. He's a strong-minded lefty who changes speeds and eye levels with the poise of a 10-year vet. He's already shown the ability to be effective as both a starter and reliever. I'm pretty sure he'll be in my top 70 or 60 next time around.
88. Tanner Roark, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #93 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.35 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 158 K/165 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 146 K/180 innings
Hey man, sometimes you just need a guy who takes the ball. Roark has thrown over 100 innings six seasons in a row, and he was over 165 in five out of six. He's made 30 or more starts four seasons in a row. He sports a 3.71 career ERA, and I've always liked his big, overhand curveball. Earlier in his career, he was definitely hovering around my top 50. His results have tapered off a bit, but he's still a reliable big-league starter who brings it every time he's on the hill.
87. Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #126 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 118 K/95 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.15 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 180 K/180 innings
The first of back-to-back "Zylbertttt guysssss".
This kid's a little bit maddening. A 6'2" lefty with wipeout stuff who certainly looks the part. But can he stay healthy? Can he pitch to an ERA under 4.00? This is perhaps a generous ranking because I'm considering the Angels' high-powered offense. This kid is gonna pile up some wins if he stays healthy and keeps his walks down. Like I wrote about Lance McCullers in Part 1 of my series, Heaney's team really needs him this season. Let's see how he responds. Like Urias, he has the potential to be a top 70 or 60 guy.
86. Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #73 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 151 K/179 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.44 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30 K/34 innings
Sandy Alcantara can bring it. Out of the bullpen with the Cardinals in 2017, he averaged 98.3 MPH on his fastball. He's toned things down a bit as a starter with the Marlins, averaging a still-robust 95.6 MPH. And yet, he didn't strike out a batter per inning this past season. Obviously, he needs to continue developing his secondary stuff, because a kid with that kind of arm should be right up there with the best strikeout pitchers in the National League. He's still just 24 years old. He has a crazy amount of potential.
85. Chris Bassitt, SP, Oakland Athletics
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #52 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 141 K/144 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 41 K/47 innings
Here's one of the more underrated guys in the game right now. Bassitt isn't a top-of-the-rotation kinda pitcher, but he profiles as an extremely useful mid-rotation arm. He has some craft out there. He hits his spots and he's very willing to go deep into ballgames. He's not flashy, but I like that about him. He's all business and he gets the job done...even if no one notices.
84. Sean Doolittle, RP, Washington Nationals
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #28 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 66 K/60 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 1.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 60 K/45 innings
Probably the most difficult guy to rank in this installment. When I think of quality left-handed relievers, my mind immediately jumps to Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand, Zack Britton and Doolittle. But the reality is that Doolittle lost his closer's job last season. Daniel Hudson swooped in and did a fantastic job in many high-pressure spots. But again, I'm considering "the story" of the pitcher in these rankings. Doolittle has been one of the best for awhile now. I don't love his stuff - he throws mostly four-seam fastballs, which can be flat - but he boasts a ridiculous 0.95 lifetime WHIP. Quality left-handed relievers are just so difficult to come by.
83. Brandon Workman, RP, Boston Red Sox
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #7 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 1.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 104 K/71 innings, 16 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.27 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 37 K/41 innings, 0 saves
Workman is similar to Seth Lugo, whom I highlighted in my last installment. They aren't necessarily similar in the way that they throw - I personally think Lugo has a better all-around arsenal - but they are similar in that their overall stats will deceive you. I'm just being real, here - when the Red Sox tried Workman as a starter back in 2013 and '14, I wasn't the least bit impressed. I thought he was terrible. In his second season as a starter, he was averaging just 90.4 MPH on his fastball and his arm looked completely shot. But, ya know...transitioning to the bullpen can work wonders. You only gotta hit spots for one inning (sometimes two). And Workman as an effective reliever isn't a new thing. He was absolutely lights out in '19, but he was also very good in both '17 and '18. He's found his niche. I don't think it's pretty, but he's been one of the better relievers in the American League.
82. Ken Giles, RP, Toronto Blue Jays
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #21 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 1.87 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 83 K/53 innings, 23 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 53 K/50 innings, 26 saves
Get on board and ride this roller coaster. Giles imploded in 2018 - he just completely lost it. His electric fastball simply wasn't getting the job done. Maybe he was tipping his pitches, which I suspected Edwin Diaz was doing last year. Anyway, Giles turned it around rather quickly in '19. He was back to being one of the better power relievers in the game. When he's at his best, he's getting on top of his slider and finishing it down-and-away to right-handed hitters. It also slips under the bat of left-handed swingers. He may throw 99, but he needs that two-pitch combo to be truly effective. When he has them both working, he's pretty unhittable.
81. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Cincinnati Reds
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #22 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 89 K/67 innings, 34 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 80 K/72 innings, 30 saves
Call me crazy, but, when I look at Raisel Iglesias' name...I think of Zach LaVine from the Chicago Bulls. Yup. Strange, I know. I wrote this about LaVine in my last NBA Top 100 Players article:
This year everything has changed - LaVine's field goal percentage has dropped from 46.7 to 40.9, and I have to blame the Bulls' Analytics Department for that. The Bulls asked LaVine to stop taking mid-range jumpers, which makes absolutely no sense with a player coming off the best season of his life. Why rattle his cage?
And the Reds have done similar things with Raisel. They keep moving him around and tinkering with his role. They are messing with his head and his chances at consistency. In 2015, as a rookie, he was a starter. He started 16 games and posted a respectable 1.14 WHIP. Then, in 2016, he was both. He started 5 games and saved 6. He also worked in middle relief. In '17 and '18, he was pretty much a straight-up closer, and he was fantastic. One of the best relievers in the game. Last year, the Reds bought into that "relief ace" stuff - and it's a nice idea, but not everyone can pull it off. The "relief ace" is your best reliever, but you use him in all different types of situations. Ideally, you are using him in all the high-leverage situations, regardless of the inning. So Raisel worked in a bunch of bases loaded spots. In the end, the point is...leave the kid alone! He has electric, swing-and-miss stuff. Just give him the ball in the 9th and call it a day.
Come back next time for the 70s!
ARCHIVE:
Part 1: Pitchers 90-100
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