Sunday, November 26, 2017

Ranking the NFL's Top 100 Quarterbacks: It's A Race For Second Place

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Welcome to what is going to be the longest post in the illustrious history of John Frascella Sports.

I apologize in advance...but quarterbacks are just too damn important. 

PART I: MY METHOD FOR RANKING QUARTERBACKS

1. The current season carries 70% of the influence upon my mind. This methodology allows for rookies to get the credit they deserve. I do not believe in punishing a player simply because they are new to the league. Logically, this is not something the player can control. However, when two quarterbacks are extremely close in my mind, I may use big-game experience and/or success as a de facto tiebreaker. 

In addition, emphasizing the current season allows me to account for dramatic changes in a player's performance. For example, Ben Roethlisberger has often ranked in my top five, but he's clearly declining this season. He's 35 years old, riddled with past injuries, 19th in quarterback rating and tied for the fourth-most interceptions. Things change quickly in the NFL, and to some extent, we have to live in the present. 

2. The previous 2-3 seasons carry 30% of the weight

3. I cross-reference "The Eye Test" with statistics. I may not be able to effectively evaluate offensive or defensive linemen, but my track record indicates that I have a good eye for quarterback play. I believe I know what to look for, but I always make sure the numbers support what I'm seeing. 

For example, The Eye Test led me to initially rank rookie Mitchell Trubisky 52nd, but an examination of the numbers indicated that he hasn't been THAT bad. The Bears are protecting him with safe, run-heavy offensive gameplans, but Trubisky has only two interceptions, and he's among the leaders in QB rushing, despite the fact that he started the season on the pine behind free agent signee Mike Glennon. He hasn't set the world on fire, but 52nd was definitely unfair. 

4. Stats I focus on: QB rating, completion percentage, yards, TD-to-INT ratio, rushing and their team's win-loss record. 

5. Physical attributes/skills I focus on: Arm strength, accuracy, footwork, throwing mechanics, mobility in and out of the pocket, field vision, ability to extend plays/avoid the rush, size, power and agility. 

6. Mental attributes/skills I focus on: Game preparation, knowledge of opposing defenses, pocket presence, clock and score awareness, capability to check out of poor playcalls in exchange for upgrades, ability to rebound from mistakes, confidence and awareness of personal limitations. 

7. Health: Many immensely talented professional athletes have flamed out because they weren't able to stay on the field, court, ice, etc. It's difficult to have real value when you're standing on the sidelines. 

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For example, on talent alone, you could argue that Sam Bradford is the best quarterback on the Minnesota Vikings; but he's always injured. His career may actually be done this time. As far as talent, the same could also be said of Teddy Bridgewater; but he missed the last year-and-a-half recovering from a career-stunting broken leg. Bradford and Bridgewater may very well be better football players than Case Keenum, but there's no way in hell I'm ranking either of them ahead of the Vikings' healthy, thriving QB. Common sense is in play. 

8. What do my instincts tell me? Second half, it's a close game...can this quarterback protect the ball, maximize possessions and make plays under intense physical and emotional pressure? When the game's hanging in the balance, I have to have faith in this guy. 

My apologies if I missed anything of potential significance. Now the moment we've all been waiting for...


PART II: JOHNNY FRO'S TOP 100 NFL QUARTERBACKS

TIER 8: Unknowns, 3rd-Stringers, Has-Beens, Never-Weres and Free Agents



** EDITOR'S NOTE: All stats are accurate as of Wednesday, November 22. **


100. Joe Callahan, Packers:  Let's be honest...how can we really rank players we've never seen on the field at the NFL level? Well, in these cases, I'm going to apply relative logic.

For example, Packers HC Mike McCarthy has invested a lot of time and effort into Brett Hundley, and clearly he missed on that one. Callahan went undrafted out of a small school (Wesley), and he's miles behind Hundley on Green Bay's depth chart. How good could this kid possibly be?

99. Aaron Murray, Free Agent:  Those who know me best know that I'm more of a pro sports guy than college, but even I remember that Murray was an outstanding collegiate QB at Georgia. Unfortunately, some guys never adjust to the blinding speed of defensive skill players in the NFL. 

Murray was often considered neck-and-neck with Matt Barkley, and yet Barkley boasts three NFL games over 300 yards passing (with a career-high of 362 against the Packers), whereas Murray is yet to record a stat in a professional regular-season game. His best preseason performance resulted in 146 yards.

98. Tyler Bray, Chiefs:  Andy Reid is one of the top three or four coaches in the game, so if he seems something in Bray, I'm ranking him ahead of the preceding duds. 

97. Taysom Hill, Saints:  I'm not going crazy with this one -- Sean Payton usually has a good eye for quarterback play and/or offensive talent, and I know BYU boasts a notoriously high-scoring offense; so, Hill must have at least a little something to offer. 

96. Cooper Rush, Cowboys:  Dallas has only been rostering two QBs, so they're showing indirect faith in this kid. Plus, he has a great name for marketing...Cooper Rush. He just sounds like a quarterback. Actually, technically, "Rush" sounds like a running back. 

95. Zac Dysert, Cowboys:  Out for the season with an injury, but he was drafted in the 7th round, whereas Rush went undrafted. Just seems logical to rank him one spot ahead. 

94. Chad Kelly, Broncos:  Another youngster who is out for the season, but John Elway can't continue misfiring on quarterbacks, can he? Kelly has to show flashes when healthy. 

93. Jeff Driskel, Bengals

92. Garrett Gilbert, Panthers

91. David Fales, Dolphins

90. Brandon Allen, Rams:  This was a name I actually recognized. Allen played for a bigger school than his predecessors on my list -- Gilbert went to Southern Methodist, Fales to San Jose State -- and was a 6th-round draft selection. 

89. Josh Dobbs, Steelers:  Like the aforementioned Andy Reid and Sean Payton, Steelers' OC Todd Haley has natural instincts for QBs and offensive production. When I'm outside of my depth, I defer to the experts who know a LOT more than I do. Haley certainly qualifies for that distinction, and a 4th-round pick is no joke. Considering the perceived value of a 4th rounder, Haley and HC Mike Tomlin have to think Dobbs will quickly surpass the underwhelming Landry Jones

88. Davis Webb, Giants:  Third-round pick. Big school in California. Looks the part. Eli Manning's career is winding down. Maybe we'll see what Webb has to offer...

87. Nathan Peterman, Bills:  Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions in the first half of his first NFL start. According to a graphic shown during Sunday's broadcast, only one QB in league history had thrown five picks in his first start, and that bum played all four quarters. So, by deductive reasoning, Peterman may have played the worst game in the history of the quarterback position.

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And, congratulations to HC Sean McDermott on that outstanding achievement. McDermott, while in possession of one of the AFC's two Wild Card spots, decided to bench his reliable starting QB Tyrod Taylor because he's not "his guy." McDermott's in his first season replacing rah-rah Rex Ryan, and he's already parted ways with Sammy Watkins, Marcell Dareus, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin, while bringing in Kelvin Benjamin, who has yet to produce anything. 

It's funny, in my preseason predictions I wrote that the Bills are "seemingly always looking for ways to push Tyrod Taylor out the door" and that "this organization doesn't feel like it controls its own destiny. They're just kind of floating in the wind like the feather at the end of Forrest Gump." 

Well, how else can you describe that inexplicable decision to bench Taylor (11 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 3rd in QB rushing yards) for Peterman, a 5th-round gamble by a front office and head coach that have absolutely no clue what they are doing? It was one of the worst decisions ever made in any of the four major sports, and McDermott and new GM Brandon Beane got what they deserved. Clearly, when your last name is Beane and you run a professional sports franchise, you are bound to make controversial decisions that result in losses piled on top of more losses.

The only reason Peterman is this high is because he somehow earned the right to start in an NFL game. Some of these other kids down here may never get that opportunity.

86. Luke McCown, Free Agent

85. Christian Hackenberg, Jets:  I saw some decent, quick-release throws during the preseason, but at the end of the day Hackenberg doesn't have the awareness or pure ability required to quarterback at the highest level of football.

84. Dan Orlovsky, Free Agent

83. Jake Rudock, Lions:  Detroit's only carrying two QBs, and Rudock had the major advantage of playing under NFL-savvy Jim Harbaugh at Michigan.

82. Scott Tolzien, Colts:  It's never pretty when he plays, but he somehow gets opportunities here and there.

81. Charlie Whitehurst, Free Agent:  In 2016 against the Patriots, as a member of the lowly Browns, he threw for 182 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Not bad for a currently-homeless QB.

80. Zach Mettenberger, Free Agent

79. Matt McGloin, Free Agent:  Put up some decent stats when he was forced to start for the Raiders in the past. Surprised he isn't a third-stringer somewhere.

78. Kellen Clemens, Chargers

77. Christian Ponder, Free Agent

76. Robert Griffin III, Free Agent:  How funny is it that HC Hue Jackson had RGIII as his starter when Josh McCown and Cody Kessler were active on his roster? You'll be seeing McCown and Kessler later on in my top 35, while Griffin continues to sit at home playing video games. No one will touch him. And yet, Jackson still has a job as an NFL head coach. Lose every single game, make horrendous decisions and deposit millions of dollars in your bank account. Must be a nice life.

75. Joe Webb, Bills:  I'd rather have a professional scrambler like Webb under center than an under-prepared and in over-his-head Nathan Peterman.

74. Cardale Jones, Chargers:  Very good physical skills; may never master the cerebral aspect of the position.

73. Sean Mannion, Rams:  Has eye-catching raw ability. May never see him play, since he's behind rising star Jared Goff.

72. Ryan Griffin, Bucs:  Had a legitimate shot to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick for the Bucs' backup QB job. Injury knocked him out of the race.

71. Connor Cook, Raiders


TIER 7: Crappy Guys Who, At Some Point, Actually Played Some Pro Football

70. Kevin Hogan, Browns:  People actually thought this kid was good after he went 16-for-19 against the Jets for 194 yards, two TDs and one INT. What they didn't realize is that Hogan was tossing lame ducks into quadruple coverage and Ricardo Louis, David Njoku and Duke Johnson were coming down with mind-boggling, miraculous catches.

That's why, in an extremely small sample size, the stat sheet can lie to you. I watched that game very closely, and nothing in Hogan's skillset indicated that he could sustain positive results at this level. His decision-making is poor, his awareness of the pass rush is non-existent and his velocity is laughably low. He lobs the ball like Chad Pennington or Shaun Hill, but it would take him an entire lifetime to master the mental aspect of the position the way those two vets did. Pennington and Hill had the intelligence and self-awareness to understand and sidestep their physical limitations, whereas Hogan makes throws as if his arm strength rivals Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb or Kirk Cousins.

As I detailed in my opening, one thing I look for is "awareness of personal limitations," and Kevin Hogan clearly doesn't have that.

69. Matt Cassel, Titans

68. Shaun Hill, Free Agent:  Speak of the devil...I can't believe this guy doesn't have a team. Maybe he retired quietly? He has a respectable career QB rating of 84.9, with 49 touchdowns to only 30 interceptions. Can't believe Scott Tolzien and Christian Hackenberg have teams, and this reliable vet doesn't. Seems unfair.

67. T.J. Yates, Texans

66. Matt Schaub, Falcons:  Only putting him this high because he had a number of Pro Bowl caliber seasons at this level. Lot of these predecessors will never achieve what Schaub has in his NFL career. Call it a career-achievement ranking.

65. E.J. Manuel, Raiders

64. Landry Jones, Steelers:  Seven touchdowns, six interceptions and a 60% completion rate in his career. Never impresses me when Ben Roethlisberger inevitably goes down. Jones misses easy throws and his performance is erratic at best.

63. Brandon Weeden, Titans

62. Brett Hundley, Packers:  Can't believe Brian Hoyer passed on this job. What a loser. Could have been spreading the ball around to Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb instead of twiddling his thumbs on the sideline watching Tom Brady demolish all comers.

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Meanwhile, Hundley can't seem to spread the ball around to anyone, except opposing defensive players. He's 34th in QB rating (out of 35 qualifiers) with only two touchdowns and SEVEN interceptions. Yikes, yikes, yikes.

61. Geno Smith, Giants

60. Mark Sanchez, Bears:  I get emotional about Mark Sanchez. The same way I get about Carlos Beltran with the Mets or Stephon Marbury with the Nets or Knicks -- valuable players who were underappreciated and over-criticized by New York fans and media members. 

One day, I will devote an entire post to proving the haters wrong about "Sanchize."

59. Austin Davis, Seahawks

58. Paxton Lynch, Broncos:  We'll get a glimpse of what he's truly made of this week. In the flashes I've seen, he looks gawky, confused and ill-equipped for the speed and collective football IQ of the NFL. 

Keep in mind, HC Vance Joseph and GM John Elway did everything they could to avoid using Lynch -- Trevor Siemian (9 TDs, 10 INTs) or Brock Osweiler (3 TDs, 4 INTs) have played every game of this trainwreck of a season for the Broncos. Early indications on Lynch scream BUST. 

57. Chase Daniel, Saints:  Once got a 3-year, $21 million contract in the pros, so he can't be that bad. Besides, I haven't seen much from 100 down to 58...have you?

56. Matt Barkley, Cardinals:  Considering low expectations, he was really impressive during the second half of last season, playing for the Bears in the stead of injured vets Jay Cutler and Brian Hoyer. Was surprised that Barkley went unsigned for much of the current season. No-brainer pickup for Bruce Arians and the Cardinals with Carson Palmer on the shelf and an extra QB spot available. 

55. C.J. Beathard, 49ers:  33rd in QB rating (again, there are only 35 qualifiers), four touchdowns and five picks -- it hasn't been pretty. Has a weak arm like Kevin Hogan, though his overall skillset isn't as weak. 

54. Chad Henne, Jaguars:  Couldn't beat out Blake Bortles for the job, so he probably isn't very good anymore. Not like he was ever great, anyway. Just a garden-variety professional backup QB. 

53. DeShone Kizer, Browns:  This rookie is suffering through one of the worst passing seasons in NFL history. He's dead last in QB rating, with five touchdowns and FOURTEEN interceptions. 

On the bright side, his scrambling ability has allowed Cleveland to move the ball in between the 20s. Kizer's 223 QB rushing yards are 7th in the league, despite the fact that he ceded some playing time to Kevin Hogan and Cody Kessler. Kizer ranks ahead of known scramblers like Alex Smith (200 yards), Marcus Mariota (186) and Jacoby Brissett (154), and his four rushing touchdowns are second only to Dak Prescott, who has five. 

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52. Ryan Mallett, Ravens:  I've always kind of supported this guy, but this is an instance where The Eye Test doesn't connect with the statistics. When I've seen Mallett on the field for the Texans and Ravens, I've been impressed by his size, arm strength and ability to make tough, window throws, but his putrid numbers don't reinforce the arm I've seen. 

51. Derek Anderson, Panthers

50. A.J. McCarron, Bengals:  A collegiate legend at Alabama. It seems like there's a "Free A.J. McCarron" movement online. Lot of his fans truly believe that he can be a starter in the pros. Not sure that opportunity will ever arise. 

49. Nick Foles, Eagles

48. Drew Stanton, Cardinals

TIER 6: Backups Who Won't Kill You If They're Forced to Start

47. Mike Glennon, Bears

46. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs:  The highest-ranked kid I haven't really seen. Here's what I do know about him: (1) He was the second QB taken in his draft class, 10th overall ahead of Deshaun Watson and DeShone Kizer; (2) Many well-respected analysts believed he was the No. 1 QB on the board; (3) His father, Pat, was a relief pitcher for my Mets, and I kind of liked him; (4) Professional-athlete bloodlines are always a good thing for a prospect and (5) Andy Reid used his only first-round pick on Mahomes, despite the fact that Alex Smith is smart, healthy and has played well in his intricate offensive system.

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Very simply, Reid felt Mahomes was too good to pass up. When his time comes, all signs are pointing to Mahomes being a top 15 to 20 quarterback in the NFL.

45. Trevor Siemian, Broncos:  He has top-30 physical tools, but the mental aspect of his game never evolved. Prior to his benching in favor of the next man on my list, Siemian stumbled through an absolutely dreadful performance against a severely-depleted Chiefs defense on national TV. It was the last straw. His play had clearly been trending in the wrong direction, and at this point his confidence is completely shot.

44. Brock Osweiler, Broncos:  A better feel for and understanding of the position than his teammate, with more physical limitations. It still feels more like an NFL game when Osweiler's under center. When Siemian is taking the snaps, it often seems like the Broncos are playing helter-skelter backyard football.

43. Bryce Petty, Jets:  Petty's stock is quietly rising around the league. After an extremely impressive preseason, two teams tried to trade for Petty, but the Jets vehemently refused.

After New York had enough of Ryan Fitzpatrick's careless play last season, Petty took over and showed an easy ability to move the ball in between the 20s. At a decent Redskins defense, he threw for 242 yards, two TDs and zero picks. Overall, he struggled mightily in the redzone, but it was a small sample size, and this is a kid threw for over 3,800 yards TWICE in college. In 2013, he threw 32 touchdowns with only three interceptions.

Physically, I like his quick release, but he's never going to be a world beater. No aspects of his skillset rate in the "plus" category, but he's decent all-around and his positive, high-energy personality is infectious with his teammates.

42. Blaine Gabbert, Cardinals:  An athletic quarterback who has always shown flashes of productive play. He moves effectively in and out of the pocket, which allows secondary, ad-lib opportunities for his wide receivers, tight ends and backs. He's coming off a strong performance in his first start as a Cardinal, but is likely in for a rude awakening against the vaunted Jacksonville D.

41. Tom Savage, Texans

40. Colt McCoy, Redskins:  One of my personal favorites. The kid is just a winner. Always plays hard, never makes excuses and elevates the collective play of his teammates with world-class, positive leadership. What an absolutely wonderful teammate and role model for youngsters.

39. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears:  I talked about him in the opening so I won't go into much detail here. Basically, he's being protected the way Mark Sanchez and Dak Prescott were as rookies; but the Bears' conservatism is even more extreme. Hard to get a read on him with so few passes being thrown.

I will say this, though...when I watched his game tape after the draft, I felt he couldn't sniff Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson. I'm still shocked the Bears traded up that high to get him. My early sense is that Trubisky will end up in the same category as guys like Brock Osweiler, Blaine Gabbert and his teammate, Mike Glennon.

38. Colin Kaepernick, Free Agent:  All season people have been asking me if I really felt Kaepernick was being blackballed

Well...there are 32 NFL teams and (generally) three QB spots per team, for a total of 96. And, you can see some of the kids I have around No. 96 -- Cooper Rush, Zac Dysert, Jeff Driskel, Nathan Peterman, etc. -- so I guess that kind of answers the question, right?

Colin Kaepernick very nearly carried the San Francisco 49ers to a Super Bowl title. Against a notoriously-stout Ravens defense, Kap threw for 302 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, while rushing for 62 critical yards and a TD. He almost brought Jim Harbaugh's 49ers back from a huge deficit following that bizarrely-timed Superdome blackout.

Now, in fairness, the quality of Kap's play has declined since the 49ers' front office essentially forced Harbaugh out of town. Harbaugh was easily one of the top five head coaches in the NFL, and his detailed, in-depth knowledge of the quarterback position allowed Kap to rapidly develop into a Pro Bowl caliber performer. That all-star level play didn't continue under Jim Tomsula or Chip Kelly; however, Kaepernick has managed to throw 72 touchdowns with only 30 career interceptions.

How about this one...LAST YEAR...Kap threw 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions, while posting a very solid 90.7 QB rating. Furthermore, his 468 QB rushing yards were second only to Tyrod Taylor, which means Kap performed better on the ground than superstar names like Russell Wilson and Cam Newton.

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So yeah, clearly, Colin Kaepernick is being blackballed. I don't necessarily feel bad for him because he should have considered the political and long-term marketing ramifications of his public stance for race and professional equality, but the fact remains that -- on football merits alone -- he should DEFINITELY be on an NFL roster.

TIER 5: Borderline Starting Quarterbacks

37. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bucs

36. Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings:  The fact that there's been conversation about possibly benching Case Keenum, tells me that Teddy must look awfully healthy and ready to go in practice. Keenum has been outstanding for the Vikings, settling into a nice collective rhythm with Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph and Jerick McKinnon. Minnesota is clearly one of the elite all-around teams in the league this season. 

I hope Mike Zimmer and his coaching staff don't do anything crazy at the quarterback position. Leave Keenum alone. Don't pull a Sean McDermott

35. Sam Bradford, Vikings:  Probably a top-30 QB, but he simply cannot stay healthy. I think the end is near for his career. 

34. Cody Kessler, Browns:  If Colin Kaepernick is being blackballed by the NFL (which he is), then Cody Kessler is being blackballed by Hue Jackson, the Browns' coaching staff and front office.

With Josh McCown battling injuries, Robert Griffin III stinking up the field and even Charlie Whitehurst getting a start last season, Kessler was Cleveland's lone bright spot at the quarterback position. He has good agility and awareness inside the pocket, gets rid of the rock quickly and is a young and athletic playmaker. He's also very accurate rolling and throwing to his arm side. 

In eight starts, Kessler tossed six touchdowns and only two interceptions, with 1,380 yards and a very promising 92.3 QB rating. He was selected in the 3rd round of the 2016 draft, so I'm not sure why Jackson and/or Paul DePodesta felt the need to draft a raw, 2nd-round project in DeShone Kizer this year. 

Once again, this is another example of typically-horrendous decision-making by the Cleveland Browns organization. Plain and simple: Cody Kessler needs to be their starting quarterback for an entire season. The wrong kid is getting a long leash right now. 

33. Matt Moore, Dolphins:  Consistently one of the best and most reliable backup signal callers in the game. The only thing is...Moore seems to play better when the man in front of him goes down, forcing him to enter mid-game and lead a dramatic second-half comeback. He isn't as electric when he starts a game from scratch.

32. Jay Cutler, Dolphins:  Everyone knows I love to dog Cutler for his laziness and no-care attitude, but I'll admit that Adam Gase's offense looks slightly more professional with him under center. The ball gets spread around evenly, whereas Moore has tended to rely solely on Kenny Stills; that's great for Stills' fantasy owners, but terrible for the unpredictability of Miami's inconsistent offense. Thirteen touchdowns to nine interceptions for Cutler, whereas Moore's is 1-to-1 with three of each. 

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31. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers:  I was very impressed when he filled in for Tom Brady during his suspension, and I'm sure Kyle Shanahan will coach him up properly. I still hate Shanahan for the pass playcall that forced the Falcons out of field goal range in the Super Bowl, but I'll admit that their offense hasn't looked the same this season. Shanahan clearly knows how to maximize offensive production and optimize skillsets, so I'm sure we'll be seeing Garoppolo in my top 20 next year. 

30. Brian Hoyer, Patriots:  Made the playoffs as the Texans' starting QB, outplayed Jay Cutler in Chicago before suffering a season-ending injury, and had the 49ers' new-look offense moving more fluidly than C.J. Beathard. When he's in a competition with guys of a similar skill level, he tends to come out on top because of his positive energy and underrated leadership. No matter where he goes, Hoyer is well-liked by his teammates, and his overall skillset is workable as a back-end starter in this league. 

29. Joe Flacco, Ravens:  "Joe Cool's" back injury is clearly limiting him this season. Joe is toughing it out as the leader of John Harbaugh's Ravens, but his play has been downright awful. He's 32nd in QB rating, with nine touchdowns and ELEVEN interceptions. Harbaugh is one of the best in the biz, so he will continue to let his defense do the talking as Flacco is handled similarly to Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky or Brock Osweiler

Right now, there are no indications that Flacco will ever return to the player he was -- somewhere between No. 12 and 20 in my rankings -- and back injuries are super dangerous for QBs who can get demolished by blind-side pass rushers. His arrow is pointing downward. 

28. Blake Bortles, Jaguars:  Just as he did in Buffalo, HC Doug Marrone is doing a fantastic job maximizing the win total of the usually-inept Jags. Marrone is riding his stifling defense and first-round horse Leonard Fournette. That means Bortles is in the "game manager" role, and he's handling it adequately. He has 12 touchdowns and only seven interceptions, while hustling his way into the top 10 in QB rushing yards (he's 9th). 

27. Jacoby Brissett, Colts:  A little over a year ago, Jacoby Brissett was a no-name third-string quarterback for the New England Patriots. He was never intended to see the field with Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of him on Bill Belichick's carefully-calibrated depth chart.

Lo and behold, Brady got suspended and Garoppolo got injured. Brissett then took full advantage of his unexpected opportunity by shutting out the Houston Texans 27-0, not turning the ball over and rushing for a backbreaking TD. Brissett executed Belichick's conservative gameplan perfectly, and execs around the league took notice. 

Once the Colts knew Andrew Luck's recovery timetable was getting longer and longer, they reached out to the Pats and dumped bust Phillip Dorsett on them in exchange for Brissett, the lightning rod. Once again, he took a backseat. Jacoby had to watch Scott Tolzien embarrass himself before he could get the opportunity to start. 

But since taking over for Tolzien early on, Brissett has been a sparkplug, providing a higher QB rating than proven guys like Cam Newton, Carson Palmer (pre-injury) and Cutler. He's been a relentless competitor and efficient leader, with only five interceptions on the season, despite his overall inexperience as a starter at this level. Brissett has made some electric plays with his feet, and now, apparently, the Colts have long-term plans for him. Well-deserved, Jacoby. 

26. Jameis Winston, Bucs:  Maybe he's just not any good. The Bucs, as a whole, have performed better with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center; so maybe Winston's teammates are tired of his disingenuous, over-exaggerated rah rah garbage. You can't be an effective vocal leader if your performance sucks on the field. Worry less about speeches and more about ball security, kid. 

25. Josh McCown, Jets:  This well-traveled vet has been a tremendous leader for my Jets, and a major upgrade over the aforementioned Fitzpatrick. At 38 years young, McCown still showcases a ton of velocity, and at times he's been mind-blowingly accurate. 

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However, he's also shown why he's bounced around from team to team throughout his respectable professional career -- he sucks in the 4th quarter. The player who looks so poised and controlled in quarters 1 through 3, morphs into a deer in headlights who makes excruciatingly-bad decisions in the 4th. 

McCown has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league in quarters 1 through 3, and I've loved having him on my team this year, but he's still a borderline starter. He doesn't quite belong in the next tier. 

TIER 4: Respectable Starting Quarterbacks


24. Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins:  Coming off a career-high 93.5 QB rating with newfound confidence in Adam Gase's highly-touted offensive system, Tannehill suffered a season-ending ACL injury during an early August practice. We'll have to see if he can return to form next year. He could potentially end up as high as No. 19, or as low as No. 39. Next season will be make-or-break, no insensitive pun intended.

23. Carson Palmer, Cardinals:  Quite possibly one of the most overrated professional athletes of all time. But, quarterback play is so poor that an injured and washed-up gunslinger can legitimately be ranked No. 23 overall. 

22. Eli Manning, Giants:  Hard to really judge him with a lame duck head coach, Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall out for the season, no pass protection and a vanilla, unspectacular rushing attack. Given those nauseating circumstances, Eli's numbers aren't terrible: He has 14 touchdowns, six picks and is 21st in QB rating. I'm not overly concerned with his play; my main concern is...is this nightmare of a season hindering his desire to continue playing? Time will tell. 

21. Case Keenum, Vikings:  Another one of this season's feel-good stories. He ultimately can't compete with Carson Wentz, Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but in my opinion Keenum has been an MVP-type player this year.

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He has settled into Minnesota's solid offensive scheme, established fine chemistry with his teammates and solidified the most important position on a team that has developed into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. What more can you ask for from a low-budget journeyman?

20. Andy Dalton, Bengals

19. Tyrod Taylor, Bills:  I don't think people realize how good Tyrod Taylor is; Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane certainly don't.

Tyrod Taylor is currently 14th in QB rating, ahead of Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Dak Prescott. This rating comes during a "down" year in which he boasts 11 passing touchdowns to only three interceptions, 275 rushing yards (3rd best, ahead of Deshaun Watson and Prescott) and three rushing touchdowns. I have "down" in quotes because usually quarterbacks get benched in favor of ill-prepared rookies during down years. McDermott and Beane seem to have a new, asinine interpretation of the phrase. F**kin clowns.  

Last season Tyrod finished ahead of Rivers, Palmer, Winston (in his "breakout" year) and Newton in QB rating, while tossing 17 touchdowns and only six picks. He was No. 1 in the league in QB rushing yards with 580, including six trips to paydirt. 

While scramblers like Michael Vick, Vince Young, Tim Tebow, Kaepernick and Griffin have faded into oblivion, Taylor continues going strong; keeping opposing defenses off balance with the run-pass option like Russell Wilson, Newton, Prescott and Alex Smith

Tyrod plays behind a run-of-the-mill offensive line, with LeSean "Shady" McCoy as his only dependable sidekick; Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin turned into Kelvin Benjamin, Zay Jones and Jordan Matthews in one year's time, and Rex Ryan was downgraded to McDermott. 

Tyrod Taylor is dealing with near-impossible circumstances, yet he's playing well and handling the unfair situation with class and dignity. I'd take him on my team any day of the week. 

TIER 3: Pro Bowl Caliber Quarterbacks

18. Deshaun Watson, Texans:  In an extremely small sample size, based on physical skills and statistical production, I'd say Deshaun Watson looked like a top-12 quarterback in the NFL.

Unfortunately, he's only started six games in the league, and my buddy Doug Muhlbauer makes a good point that athletic, mobile QBs like Robert Griffin III and Vince Young also sprinted out of the gate, looking like potentially-dominant superstars. We know how quickly those flames burnt out. 

The fact of the matter is that we have to see how Watson recovers from his torn ACL. Griffin was never the same after his ACL surgery. My fingers are crossed for Deshaun and the Texans' faithful. If he can re-establish full health, there's no question he could be a top-10 QB in the world. 

17. Marcus Mariota, Titans:  No ifs, ands or buts...Marcus Mariota has been atrocious this season. Dealing with a hampering hamstring injury, Mariota has looked timid, indecisive and frankly, soft. He's 27th in QB rating out of 35, with eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He hasn't been able to establish any chemistry with new teammates Eric Decker and Corey Davis, and TE1 Delanie Walker is suffering through the worst season of his steady career. 

However, the Titans are currently 6-4, in possession of an AFC playoff position, and Mariota had a 95.6 QB rating last season, with 26 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. He's currently 10th in QB rushing yards and tied for 2nd with four rushing TDs, after finishing 6th in rushing last year (357 yards). 

Don't forget that Marcus Mariota began his NFL career with over 30 touchdowns in the redzone without throwing a single interception. He's a young QB suffering through a down year with a nagging injury. It would be unfairly narrow-minded to write him off. 

16. Dak Prescott, Cowboys:  I'm not using any of the stats from Thanksgiving because I wrote most of this piece on Wednesday, November 22, but we simply cannot ignore the reality of what we saw:

Dak Prescott needs Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys need Ezekiel Elliott. For the second-straight game, Dallas got absolutely walloped, falling 28-6 to the Chargers -- who didn't even have a kicker -- after getting annihilated, 37-9, by the division-rival Eagles a week ago. 

On the flip side, we can't get carried away about two measly games (though, it really does look bad). Prescott is the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and deservedly so after throwing for 3,667 yards, 23 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Dak finished with an absolutely incredible 104.9 QB rating, so I refuse to bury him after two poor games in the absence of Dallas' best player. HC Jason Garrett and Prescott will have to make the necessary adjustments, but if they continue to flounder, the latter may eventually fall down into Tier 4. 

15. Jared Goff, Rams:  What a difference a year, and a different coach makes. 

Jeff Fisher's 7-9 revolution was fun to watch and laugh at, but it had to end eventually. And man, did GM Les Snead save his own ass by hiring Sean McVay as Fisher's much-needed successor.

McVay is the polar opposite of Fisher; young, smart, innovative, aggressive and positive. Fisher was washed up, rigid, limited, short-sighted and negative. While Goff looked like a potential bust in small spurts during his rookie season, McVay quickly made it clear that it wasn't the player -- it was the coach and his laughably-vanilla schemes. 

When you have an electric performer like Todd Gurley, you have to find innovative ways to get him the ball in space, and McVay has done exactly that. He's surrounded his young QB with receiving talent in Sammy Watkins, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee and the perennially-underrated Robert Woods, and Goff has responded resoundingly -- he's 7th in yards and 8th in QB rating with 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions. 

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Goff is going through his progressions quicker and getting the ball out to his playmakers. His style has been low-risk, high-reward, and his surprising Rams are 7-3 and in 1st place in the NFC West, ahead of the perennial champion Seattle Seahawks. 

McVay should be Coach of the Year, and Goff may get some back-end votes for MVP. 

14. Derek Carr, Raiders:  Talk about a volatile situation. Rumors have swirled that Oakland's offensive linemen have made Carr suffer for his stance on the whole kneeling situation. 

Simply put, it's been an ugly year for Carr and the Raiders. He's still a very talented quarterback -- showcasing one of my favorite, loose arms in the game -- but he may need a coaching upgrade or change of scenery to return to elite status. 

13. Andrew Luck, Colts:  I might prefer Goff or Watson going forward, but they have to prove that they can duplicate Luck's accomplishments: He's carried a lackluster Colts organization to the postseason three times, including one controversy-crammed appearance in the AFC Championship game.

I've always been critical of Luck's carelessness with the ball, particularly in big games -- he has 12 interceptions and only nine touchdowns in the playoffs -- but the fact remains that he elevates a team that doesn't have much to offer. Frank Gore's career has been slowly winding to a close, their offensive line is horrific, Phillip Dorsett (now a Patriot) was a total bust and HC Chuck Pagano is one of the absolute worst in the game. I'd rank him down at the bottom with Sean McDermott, Hue Jackson, Vance Joseph, Ben McAdoo, Dirk Koetter and of course, our very own Todd Bowles

So, in many respects, Luck has earned his stripes. But, like Bradford, Flacco, Tannehill, Palmer and Watson, we'll have to see how he recovers from injury next season. Luck could potentially be as high as No. 5 or as low as No. 24. It's a wide range depending on health and quality of performance. 

12. Alex Smith, Chiefs:  This "unsexy," ball-control QB is having an MVP-caliber year. He's second in QB rating and completion percentage, 6th in yards and 8th in rushing, with 18 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Can a "limited" quarterback really play any better?

Smith has always been savvy and efficient, and now he's operating at the height of his powers. I'm sure this peak performance has something to do with the arrival of Patrick Mahomes. Smith isn't ready to let go of the reins, and he shouldn't have to. 

If you asked me to vote right now, Smith would be fifth on my MVP ballot. 

TIER 2: Stars...but not the best of the best

11. Cam Newton, Panthers:  Andrew Luck was the most difficult QB to rank, but Cam comes in a a close second. 

The problem is that his pure passing numbers are off-putting. He's 24th in QB rating, with 14 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He looked like the best player in the world against the Dolphins, Lions and Patriots, and a washed-up scrub against the Saints, Eagles and Bears. His performance has been all over the map, but his Panthers are 7-3 and have a strong hold on an NFC playoff spot. 

In addition, he's been the premier scrambling quarterback in the league, rushing for 436 yards, while no other QB has eclipsed the 400 mark. In fact, Russell Wilson is the only other QB to surpass 300 (with 376, to be exact). 

So, this is where it gets tricky -- Alex Smith is a steady signal caller who is clearly having a better season than Cam. The problem is...Smith could never do what Cam did just two seasons ago, when he captured the MVP award, carried the Panthers to an incredible 15-1 record and an appearance in the Super Bowl. Smith has been to the postseason a number of times, but his limitations get exposed and his teams never get over the hump. 

I wonder which Cam we'll see the rest of the way out. 

10. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers:  His decline is clearly underway, but he's still 8th in yards and his Steelers are 8-2, atop the AFC North and tied with the villainous Patriots for the best record in the conference. Don't count out Big Ben, yet.

9. Philip Rivers, Chargers:  Don't look now, but the Chargers are storming their way into the middle of the AFC playoff hunt, and Mr. Rivers looks as comfortable as ever. Philip's timing has been impeccable in recent weeks, and his chemistry with WR1 Keenan Allen is sizzling off the screen. 

Rivers has opposing defenses confused, as the Chargers are mimicking the Patriots by spreading the ball around to a seemingly-endless number of eligible ball-catchers. Allen leads the way, but there's also wide receivers Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin and Mike Williams; tight ends Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates, and running backs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler

The Chargers are a matchup nightmare right now, and Rivers is the world-class puppeteer pulling the strings. As a pocket passer, his mastery of the quarterback position and understanding of defensive schemes is rivaled only by Brady, Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. Honestly, I'd be surprised if the Chargers didn't end up stealing one of those Wild Card spots. 

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8. Carson Wentz, Eagles:  I've had a blast watching Wentz shred opposing defenses to pieces this season, but I have to be careful not to overrate him. Yes, the current season gets 70% of the weight in my mind, but we're talking about a different class of quarterbacks here -- these are guys who have shined year after year, whereas Wentz is enjoying his first season of elite-level play.

This methodology has proven effective for me in the past, as I was careful not to overrate Dak Prescott last season, despite the fact that I had him as a leading MVP candidate. Here we are a year later, and I've actually dropped Dak from No. 15 to 16. We can't assume that young quarterbacks will repeat their success because defensive coordinators and skill players have the awareness and ability to adapt. Defensive looks change. Rosters change. Offensive teammates change. True greatness is consistent, so we'll see what Wentz is made of next year. 

On the bright side, 10 games in, 9 wins and Wentz has my vote for MVP.

7. Matthew Stafford, Lions:  One of the most naturally gifted quarterbacks in the world, Stafford has a big, strong, loose arm that allows him to make all of the difficult throws at the game's highest level. His understanding of the position has reached a new level in the past two seasons, and it shows in his dramatically-improved efficiency numbers. He's 5th in yards, with 19 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions.

Stafford's best known for his signature 4th-quarter comebacks, where he ranks No. 1 among QBs who entered the league from 2009 on. He's also tied for 1st for QBs who entered from 2005 on. The 4th quarter is winning time, and when the going gets tough, Stafford locks in with laser focus, doesn't hesitate and makes big-time throws with the the game hanging in the balance. He's clearly getting savvier and better with age.

6. Kirk Cousins, Redskins:  On stats alone, he really deserves to be No. 5 on this list. I just can't get over the facts that he hasn't won a playoff game yet, and he crumbled with the season on the line against the Giants last season. When we get to this level on the list, you should preferably have some postseason success. 

In all honesty, Cousins has been absolutely incredible this year. His top two receivers, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, were lost during the offseason; TE1 Jordan Reed has been injured and a complete non-factor; his top two running backs, Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley are both out for the season; offseason acquisition Terrelle Pryor has been a complete bust and high-upside WR Josh Doctson has made some critical drops.

In spite of the obvious personnel issues, Cousins has sparkled, ranking 7th in QB rating and 3rd in yards, with 17 touchdowns and only five picks. The ball explodes out of his right hand, and he's a very entertaining player to watch.

There's no question he's going to become the highest-paid player in NFL history. It will be awfully interesting to see where he lands...

5. Matt Ryan, Falcons:  Within my highly-knowledgeable group of sports fans, "Matty Ice" is an unfairly-criticized player. While Matt Zylbert and I consistently support him, others (including Steven Summer) tend to throw around labels like "soft" and "overrated."

Matt Ryan is the NFL's reigning MVP, coming off an impeccable season where he threw for 4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, while leading the league in QB rating (a whopping 117.1) and completing nearly 70% of his attempts. Ryan's statistical production has digressed this year without talented OC Kyle Shanahan, but the Falcons' overrated receiving corps is 3rd in the league in drops, with 19. When you take away a strategic advantage, your skill players have to step up by securing the catchable balls; and we all know Ryan drops beautiful touch passes into available windows.

Furthermore, remember when I mentioned that Stafford was tied for 1st in 4th-quarter comebacks among QBs who entered the league since 2005? Well, Matty Ice is the man he is tied with. Ryan is effective in the clutch because of his mastery of opposing coverages, and most importantly, his throws are delivered accurately and on time.

For his career, Ryan averages a 93.8 QB rating -- which is 10th-best in the history of the game -- and in the postseason that average balloons to 102.4. In both of his last two playoff runs, he's connected on over 70% of his passes.

Matt Ryan is clearly at his best under pressure, and that's the mark of a true, star quarterback.

TIER 1: Untouchable Superstars

4. Drew Brees, Saints:  After three consecutive, mediocre 7-9 seasons, I'm happy for Brees and the Saints that they're 8-2 atop the NFC South. There's no question that Brees is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and his long-term consistency is simply mind-boggling. Drew is currently 3rd in QB rating, 1st in completion percentage and 4th in yards, with 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Talk about aging like fine wine. He's also 4th on my MVP ballot. 

3. Russell Wilson, Seahawks:  Watching this superstar play, I sometimes get the chills. The way he avoids the pass rush is nothing short of miraculous. We all know that Seattle's offensive line is laughably bad, yet Russell is 2nd in passing AND rushing yards, with 23 combined touchdowns and only seven picks. He's the total package at the quarterback position, and he's universally considered one of the best and most positive leaders in all of professional sports. 

2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers:  He's either the second or third best quarterback in the history of football, depending on how you feel about Peyton Manning. Hopefully "A-Rod" will be back and better than ever next season. 

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1. Tom Brady, Patriots:  There's no question that Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the NFL; the real question is...is he the greatest athlete of all time?

How's this resume? Most Super Bowl rings of any quarterback, most Super Bowl MVP awards, most playoff wins and most regular season wins. Fourth in regular-season passing yards (64,729), fourth in touchdowns (478) and third in QB rating. 

This deserves its own paragraph. In the playoffs, Brady is 1st in passing yards with 9,094, while second place (Peyton Manning) has only 7,339, and third (Brett Favre) has only 5,855! He has completely annihilated the field. Brady is also 1st in TD passes with 63, while second place (Joe Montana) has only 45. 

I hate Brady and the Patriots, and I LOVE Michael Jordan, but I have to consider the possibility that the former is the greatest athlete of all time. Jordan chose to leave basketball in his prime; whereas Brady continues to be completely and utterly dedicated to professional football dominance. Both are near-perfect in the clutch, but Tom Brady is 40 years old and STILL the best player in the world. 

Again, I HATE the Patriots, but I have nothing but the utmost respect for Tom Brady. He is a fearless leader, relentless competitor and world-class pocket passer. If only Bill Belichick had remained the Jets head coach, and drafted Brady into a Gang Green uniform...

All right, it's time for the complaints...bring 'em on!

Monday, November 13, 2017

The 5 Most Shocking Revelations of the (Young) NBA Season

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When Gordon Hayward went down in shocking fashion in the first quarter of his first game as a Boston Celtic, many -- myself included -- immediately dismissed Brad Stevens' club. 

Hayward left an up-and-coming Jazz team for four years and $127 million from the GrousbecksDanny Ainge and the Celtics organization, and before the brass could take their seats on Opening Night, their big-money acquisition was done for the year. It was one of the most bizarre and devastating moments I've ever seen in an NBA regular season game. 

That left Kyrie Irving, Al Horford and a bunch of young, unproven unknowns. Well, those "young" -- rookie Jayson Tatum, sophomore Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart -- and "unproven" (Aron Baynes and Terry Rozier) ballers are kicking some serious ass through 14 games. After starting 0-2 with temporary shock from the Hayward injury, Kyrie's youngbloods have, incredibly, rattled off 12 consecutive victories. 

But more on the C's later; let's get to some other stunners, first...

5. Eric Bledsoe is officially the biggest jerk in the NBA. 

Let's recap the facts, here:

1. Eric Bledsoe's contract with the Phoenix Suns was worth five years and $70,000,000. 

2. He is making $14,500,000 this season.

3. He was on a young team with developing talent in Devin Booker (who scored 70 points in an NBA game), T.J. Warren, Alex Len, Josh Jackson, Marquese Chriss, Tyler Ulis, Dragan Bender and Mike James. This was not a dead-end situation. This is an organization that is drafting and developing young talent. 

4. Eric Bledsoe inexplicably tweeted, "I Dont wanna be here." What a gutless coward, hiding behind social media. What an unbelievably unprofessional jackass. 

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5. Then, continuing to showcase his cowardice, he backtracked saying, "I was at a hair salon." Supposedly, he was with his girlfriend and didn't want to be there anymore. Well, thankfully, the Suns brass didn't buy into his lies. 

With Bledsoe on the floor, the Suns opened the season 0-3 with two shockingly-bad blowouts: 124-76 to the Blazers and 130-88 to the Clippers. Their offense was completely stagnant, as Bledsoe was unable to create efficient offense for himself or his teammates, despite being the veteran floor general of the club. 

Beginning with game 4 -- Phoenix's first without Bledsoe's cancerous attitude and presence -- the Suns won four out of their next five, with James running the point, playing with passion and positive energy, and spreading the ball around to Booker, Warren, Jackson, Chriss and Len. Phoenix has some hope now. 

As for Bledsoe...can you imagine making almost $15 million per year and whining like a little baby? Can you imagine complaining when your incredibly high-paying job is to play basketball?

Eric Bledsoe has no perspective on life. He doesn't see the big picture. The Phoenix Suns are better without him, and I hope he tanks the Milwaukee Bucks. I would never welcome a loser like that on my roster. 

4. The New York Knicks are a serious playoff contender.

Get rid of Phil Jackson and Carmelo Anthony, and everything just fixes itself, huh?

Haha, well, it isn't quite that easy, but addition-by-subtraction can be a very real phenomenon. 

After an alarmingly-slow start with Ramon Sessions and Ron Baker splitting point guard duties, head coach Jeff Hornacek finally realized that crafty veteran Jarrett Jack and rookie Frank Ntilikina are his best options at that position (which I pointed out prior to the season). 

Once the 1-spot stabilized, New York's best players -- Kristaps Porzingis, Enes Kanter and Tim Hardaway, Jr. -- took their games to the next level. "KP" is a very early frontrunner for league MVP, along with "The Beard" James Harden of the Rockets and DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins of the improving Pelicans. Kanter has always been a double-double machine when he gets the minutes, and Hardaway is a confident isolation scorer. 

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Porzingis has been making an astonishing impact on both ends of the floor, and as long as he stays healthy, there's no question he'll (continue to) become one of the premier all-around basketball players on the planet. He's long, athletic, skilled, determined and incredibly mature for his age. The stratosphere's the limit for this kid. Or whatever is really, really high up. 

As I type, the Knicks just coughed up a huge lead to LeBron James and the Cavs. This was a particularly brutal loss, but overall, things are still looking up for New York and its fans. 

3. The Cleveland Cavaliers may fall short of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Speaking of LeBron and the Cavs...

I'll admit it, heading into the season, I didn't think any team in the East could reach the NBA Finals except the Cavs or Celtics. Now, Cleveland is 7-7 at the bottom of the Eastern playoff seeding, and I have reason to believe the Celtics, Pistons, Wizards and Raptors have just as good a chance to come out of the East as Tyronn Lue's club. Here's why:

1. The Cavs need Isaiah Thomas back...badly: He's not expected to return until January, and who knows if he'll be the dynamic "IT2" we came to admire with the feel-good Celtics? It's all just speculation at this point. And what about the chemistry with LeBron -- will it be there? How long will it take? Will they be ready to close games, collectively, in the postseason when everyone will be gunning for them?

2. Jae Crowder has been an absolute disaster: Rumors had the Celtics balking on a Crowder-for-Jimmy Butler trade, now the former is averaging 8.1 PPG on 37.5% shooting from the floor. He looks fat, slow and unprepared. You shouldn't get worse when you're on the court with LeBron and Dwyane Wade, two of the best and most unselfish teammates in NBA history. Crowder's lack of conditioning and production are two undeniable concerns. 

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3. The Kardashians killed another professional basketball player: Tristan Thompson is hurt and at this point, he sucks anyway. He's averaging 4.4 PPG in 21.6 minutes while shooting 45% from the free throw line. 

4. No one is protecting the rim, defensively: LeBron and Wade are the best shotblockers on the team, and well, that says a lot. Cleveland needs an athletic presence in the paint. 

In the end, it will simply be a matter of LeBron + Isaiah's health. Stan Van Gundy's Pistons are determined and clicking (10-3 record), Markieff Morris is back from injury to join John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter, and we know DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas always find their way into the postseason mix. 

This won't be a cakewalk for the Cavs. 

2. The Oklahoma City Thunder may not make the playoffs.

Look, I'm gonna be honest with you, it's 11:01 p.m. EST and both my energy and inspiration levels are dropping dramatically by the second. 

I'll be concise -- the Thunder need to improve their depth. Paul George and Carmelo Anthony have played reasonably well given expected transitional growing pains, but Russell Westbrook has been wildly inefficient and no one produces outside of their big three. 

OKC's bench reminds me of last year's Clippers, with a bunch of washed up, low-upside players including Raymond Felton and Patrick Patterson. Last year the Clippers had Felton, Paul Pierce, Brandon Bass and Alan Anderson. The NBA is getting younger, faster and more explosive -- you don't want a bunch of old dudes hobblin' around, clutching their knees. 

Presto! Sam Presti needs to make some magic for his team at the deadline later this season. If he doesn't upgrade options 4 through 8 on his roster, the Thunder could EASILY miss the playoffs. 

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1. The Boston Celtics have the best record in the NBA

Yup, even better than the mighty Warriors and Rockets. It's as simple as this: Danny Ainge is a genius, Brad Stevens is a future Hall of Fame head coach, Kyrie Irving's leadership has been incredible, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum have developed faster than anyone could have possibly imagined, Al Horford is as steady as they come, and Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier and Aron Baynes hustle their friggin' asses off. 

This is a team. This is basketball the way it's supposed to be played. 

LeBron's Cavs stumbling...

Kyrie's Celtics rising...

That makes me smirk. I'm not the only one, right?

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Late-Night Boredom Reviews: "Moonlight" & "La La Land" In An Academy Awards Rematch

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Since The Academy clearly had some confusion regarding Moonlight and La La Land, I thought I'd clear things up for them in this edition of LNB Reviews. Which was the better movie? Let's get right into it...

MOONLIGHT (2016)

Moonlight is a film that lingers after the credits roll, and the lights come back on. 

It's not a landmark of storytelling. It's not a particularly original screenplay. What it is, is a three-act evolution that creates one of the most vivid and memorable characters to ever grace the big screen. We know Chiron. I think we gain a deeper understanding of him than some people we "know" in our own personal lives. 

Moonlight, as I teased, is a very simple story: Chiron (played by Alex R. Hibbert, Ashton Sanders and Trevante Rhodes) is a quiet boy who lives in a depressed, drug-infested neighborhood in Miami, with a difficult mother named Paula (Naomie Harris) and absentee father. As a child, played with palpable vulnerability by Hibbert, he is scrawny, meek and the subject of his classmates' physical and emotional abuse. 

Chiron, understandably, turns inward. He lives in a self-contained world within his own mind. He rarely lets others hear his thoughts, until he meets Juan (the Oscar-winning Mahershala Ali) a local drug dealer doing a variation on the "hooker with a heart of gold" role we've seen from Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman, Jamie Lee Curtis in Trading Places or Wes Bentley (Ricky Fitts) in American Beauty. Don't judge people by their profession! We get it. 

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Juan steps in as a surrogate father figure. His girlfriend Teresa (Janelle Monae) also helps Chiron creep out of his shell. (Interestingly enough, Ali and Monae also starred together in Hidden Figures, which was another Best Picture nominee.) But every day is a struggle for Chiron. We wonder if he will survive the combination of his father's absence, mother's drug addiction and classmates' unrelenting abuse. 

But I'd rather not spend too much time on plot. Along with Juan and Teresa, Chiron finds solace in his only friend, Kevin (played by Jaden Piner, Jharrel Jerome and Andre Holland), whose extroversion and charisma are in direct and obvious contrast to Chiron's introversion and tepidity. 

This is where Moonlight shines. To borrow from Jerry Maguire, Chiron and Kevin seem to complete one another. Juan, Teresa and Paula all care for Chiron, but Kevin is the only one who truly understands him. This mental and emotional connection is handled with seamless expertise by director Barry Jenkins

While I happen to be a fan of Ali -- I've always enjoyed his angling on House of Cards, which has apparently been canceled -- I think his performance is a bit overrated in this film. There is undeniable nuance to his work, but he's only in one-third of the movie and I'd rank all three Chirons and two of the Kevins (Jerome and Holland) over him. It's the sixth-best performance in Moonlight

At the risk of going off on a typical Frascella tangent, for further context, I saw Manchester by the Sea, Nocturnal Animals and Lion, and I would rank Ali's performance fourth out of the five Best Supporting Actor nominees. Lucas Hedges' incredibly naturalistic performance in Manchester was a total eye-opener for me, Michael Shannon and Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Golden Globe winner) were absolutely electrifying in Nocturnal, while Dev Patel annoyed me in Lion.

Jerome (as Kevin at age 16), Rhodes (as adult Chiron), Holland (as adult Kevin) and Jenkins are the stars of Moonlight. Jerome only has seven acting credits on IMDb, and I don't recognize any of the others. He's a young actor to keep an eye on. He's very charismatic and seems to possess wisdom beyond his years. Some facial expressions, mannerisms and personas just jump off the screen at you. Jerome has those unique qualities. I'm sure we'll be seeing much more of him in the near future.

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Rhodes (pictured directly above) is also very interesting. He doesn't seem to be acting at all. He has 16 acting credits on IMDb, and the only titles I recognize are Westworld and The Predator. When we meet adult Chiron he's not who we expect him to be, but Rhodes slowly peels away his artificially-hardened exterior to reveal the boy we've come to know and care about. It's a fully fleshed out performance in just one, single act.

Holland steals the show. I recognized his face from Miracle at St. Anna, Bride Wars, Burn Notice and 42, but had never truly seen him perform. His work in Moonlight is incredibly detailed and reflects a hard-working, magnetic actor who is poised to break out in a major way. Rhodes and Holland give Moonlight the long-lasting effect a director dreams of. 

While the first act comes off a bit heavy-handed, the third act of this film is truly breathtaking. Jenkins, Rhodes and Holland are completely in sync. I felt like I was watching Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant in unison, except the end of a Warriors' game doesn't make you want to cry. 

In the end, Moonlight isn't one of the most unique movies I've ever seen; but to borrow from my favorite active critic A.O. "Tony" Scott of the New York Times (R.I.P. Roger Ebert), I care about Chiron the way I cared about Mason (Ellar Coltrane) in Boyhood, which is one of my favorite films of all time. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING: 8.5 out of 10 **

La La Land (2016)

When every frame of a movie screams AWARDS BAIT, I check out pretty quickly. Moonlight comes from a genuine place in Barry Jenkins' heart; whereas La La Land is Damien Chazelle's attempt at one-upping the awards season he had with Whiplash

And, much to my chagrin, Chazelle's diabolical plan stuffed with disingenuous "Hollywood Magic" worked. La La Land garnered 14 Academy Award nominations -- the most of all time -- which ultimately resulted in the collection of six golden statuettes. 

Thankfully, it didn't actually win Best Picture. Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, Nocturnal Animals, Arrival and even Hidden Figures are all superior films (though the latter also screamed awards bait). The first three are FAR superior, and Nocturnal wasn't even nominated for Best Picture. 

The first hour of La La Land is essentially dreadful. Ryan Gosling (as Sebastian) and Emma Stone (as Mia) displayed more genuine and appealing chemistry as Jacob and Hannah in Crazy, Stupid, Love. I could swear that Gosling seemed checked out, both mentally and emotionally. My gut feeling is that he thought La La Land was going to be a major flop. 

Gosling also strikes me as an artist who prefers edgier, more challenging roles like Lars of Lars and the Real Girl, Dan Dunne in Half Nelson, Dean in Blue Valentine and/or Luke in The Place Beyond the Pines. I feel like Gosling had little interest in doing La La Land, but his agent was like, "Do you want to stay at the top of the acting world? Then do this safe musical with Emma."

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Honestly, I really don't want to write that much about this film. Gosling and Stone are not singers or dancers. Stone held her own with vocals, but the musical numbers involving both leads are unspectacular and uninspiring. The whole thing was just...fake. It's crap. 

Thankfully, the final 30 minutes hit some of the right notes. The central idea that careers can overpower romantic relationships is prevalent and effective. Real people struggle with that problem. It's something we can finally connect to in the audience. Sebastian and Mia have one major fight that bubbles with genuine emotion, and that sequence stands out above the rest. 

La La Land is a safe movie. It's not a great movie. It's far inferior to Chazelle's breakout hit, Whiplash. I'm done writing about a musical with actors who can't sing or dance. 

** JOHNNY FRO'S RATING: 5 out of 10 **

LNB's Updated Rankings:

1. Steve Jobs (9.5/10)
2. A Perfect Murder (9/10)
3. Bad Moms (9/10)
4. Moonlight (8.5/10)
5. The Revenant (8.5/10)
6. The Shallows (7.5/10)
7. The Night Before (7/10)
8. 10 Cloverfield Lane (7/10)
9. The Walk (7/10)
10. Joy (5.5/10)
11. La La Land (5/10)
12. The Program (3/10)
13. Mother's Day (2/10)
14. Rings (1.5/10)

Reviews to Come...

Split
Sunshine Cleaning
Zero Dark Thirty
Untraceable
The Wonder Boys
Jackie Brown
Mean Streets
Nerve
The Hateful Eight
The Seven Five
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates
How to Be Single
Basquiat
Deadpool
Ratatouille
The Spectacular Now
The Visit
Loving
In Bruges
Nocturnal Animals
War Dogs
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