Photo Credit: Covering the Corner
Now it's time to move on to baseball. This upcoming pitcher series is dedicated to my great friends Mark Rue - who was recently profiled by ABC News as one of the key frontline workers of the coronavirus pandemic - and veteran baseball writer Matt Zylbert, who probably misses baseball more than anyone in the world.
Cheers to my friends, and let's play ball!
Before we get started, here is my ranking criteria:
1. 50% of the weight: My own personal assessment of the pitcher, based on stuff, stats, consistency, ballpark factors and whatever else floats into my mind. This has to get the most weight, otherwise it wouldn't be my list.
2. 20% of the weight: The story of the pitcher. Who is this guy, over time? For example, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are pretty f'n awesome every single year; that has to count for something, right? Conversely, guys like Ken Giles and Emilio Pagan have had fluctuating results. Guys like Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have had dramatically fluctuating results. You get the idea. Who are they, really?
3. 20% of the weight: 2019 Yahoo fantasy baseball ranking. The algorithm combines all statistics in a reasonable way, so this is very helpful. For starting pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Quality Starts and Wins. For relief pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and Saves. This ranking system doesn't include Holds, so I will have to evaluate the middle relievers and setup men on my own.
4. 10% of the weight: 2018 stats, and maybe a little consideration for 2017.
100. Rich Hill, SP, Minnesota Twins
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #78 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 72 K in 58 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 150 K in 132 innings
I'm starting off with some of these "what if?" guys. What if Rich Hill could stay healthy? Per outing, he's been one of the better left-handed starters in the game over the past four seasons. But he's 40 years old. The Twins are taking a reasonable-enough flier on him this season, but how much will they actually get out of him if-and-when he returns from injury? Hill is known for one of the most devastating curveballs in the world, and his numbers have been pretty hard to ignore in recent years. He's a crafty vet who still strikes out more than a batter per inning.
99. Jameson Taillon, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #136 SP; #20 SP in 2018
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 30 K in 37 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 179 K in 191 innings
It's been a winding road for Mr. Taillon. He was a first-round pick back in 2010, and he's always been accompanied by alotta hype. He is a testicular cancer survivor. Then he rebounded to become one of the best fantasy pitchers in the game in 2018. Now he's out for the upcoming season due to Tommy John surgery and its subsequent recovery period. That's a wild ride, right? I give him credit for his resiliency and mental toughness, and if healthy he'd be hovering around the top 50 or 60.
98. Lance McCullers, Jr., SP, Houston Astros
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: DNP. #46 SP in 2018.
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 142 K in 128 innings
-2017 Notable Stats: 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 132 K in 118 innings
Lance McCullers has wipeout stuff, but he's been in the MLB for five seasons and has never thrown 130+ innings. He's never had more than 22 starts. In terms of pure stuff he's probably right near the top 50, but he needs to show some durability at this point. The Astros need him more than ever with Gerrit Cole out of the picture.
97. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #135 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 5.29 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 96 K in 80 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 231 K in 192 innings
Carrasco battled leukemia in the recent past and we simply can't know about his strength or long-term sustainability. Like McCullers, he has great stuff but durability is an obvious concern. Carrasco certainly didn't look like himself in '19, so we'll have to wait and see who he is now.
96. Matt Barnes, RP, Boston Red Sox
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #66 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 70 appearances, 110 K in 64 innings, 26 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 62 appearances, 96 K in 61 innings, 25 holds
There's a lot to say about Matt Barnes: (1) This guy takes the ball. He doesn't pout. He doesn't complain about over-usage or a sore arm. He takes the ball consistently and he chucks that thing. A relief commodity like Barnes is extremely difficult to find. (2) He's one of only a few guys to finish in the top 10 in Holds in both of the past two seasons. Reliever results fluctuate, but this guy has been solid. (3) He's one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. I mean, look at those strikeout-to-inning ratios (above). He has a nasty curve and nasty slider. He'll throw any pitch on any count. I like this guy a lot. He's a valuable gamer.
95. Emilio Pagan, RP, San Diego Padres
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #10 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.31 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 96 K/70 innings, 20 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 63 K/62 innings, 0 saves
Yes, Pagan was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball in '19, but he hadn't recorded a save prior to his breakout season. I will say and write this time and time again...reliever performance tends to fluctuate. You see his numbers from 2018. He was an afterthought at that point. I probably would have ranked him a tad bit higher if he had maintained a closer role, but this year he'll be pitching in front of bona fide stud, Kirby Yates. Of course, if the Padres become a serious contender and Pagan maintains pristine results, his setup role becomes that much more valuable. He could potentially climb my ranks.
94. Hansel Robles, RP, Los Angeles Angels
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #12 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 75 K/72 innings, 23 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.70 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 59 K/56 innings, 2 saves
Who knows what the problem was in New York? Was he overworked? Probably, yeah. Was the media attention and scrutiny a little too distracting? Maybe, yeah. Is Hansel enjoying the relaxed LA atmosphere? It sure looks that way. Robles has always featured pretty strong stuff, and he seems to have put it all together with the Angels. Is he a candidate for regression? I'd certainly say it's possible. A 1.02 WHIP just doesn't seem sustainable, given his history.
93. J.A. Happ, SP, New York Yankees
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #89 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 140 K/161 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 193 K/177 innings
Happ wasn't very good this past season. It's just a simple fact. That was one of the worst seasons of his pretty solid MLB career. But like I wrote earlier...let's consider "the story" of the pitcher. Out of the gate in his career, Happ finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting. In 2016, in arguably the most dangerous offensive division in the game, he finished sixth in the Cy Young voting. In '18 he was an all-star. I mean, we all know...quality lefties are hard to find! Overall, Happ has been a solid lefty and he's currently pitching in a tough ballpark and division.
92. Zach Davies, SP, San Diego Padres
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #70 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 31 starts, 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
-2018 Notable Stats: 13 starts, 4.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
The poor man's Kyle Hendricks. Davies is a real soft-tosser. He's one of those guys, that when you're watching your favorite team against him, you are screaming why aren't we hitting this shit! at the television. His ball kind of floats in there. He lives off two-seam movement and a little sinking changeup. But, this kid is deceptively good. Miller Park is a pitchers' nightmare, yet Davies sports a 3.91 ERA for his career. Most Brewers starters get rocked. They end up doing "bullpen games" and yanking starters out early. And now, it's close with Happ, but I'm giving Davies the slight edge because he's heading to Petco - the pitchers' dream park. (I mean, who knows with coronavirus, but you get the idea.) I give Davies credit for using his mind and getting professional hitters out with an 84-MPH fastball.
91. Ryan Pressly, RP, Houston Astros
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #40 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 72 K/54 innings, 31 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 101 K/71 innings, 21 holds
What is it with the Rays and the Astros? How, exactly, do they do it? Pressly had a 4.70 ERA for the Twins in 2017, and the next season they gave up on him. To some extent, Pressly explained how the Astros "fixed" him in this very interesting article. (The Rays "fixed" Emilio Pagan in a similar way, I'm sure.) And who really knows at this point, right? How many different ways are the Astros cutting corners as an organization? Anyway, the fact is Pressly is one of the best setup men in the game. He led the majors in Holds this past season. He has a filthy putaway slider, as you can see from his silly strikeout numbers.
90. Seth Lugo, RP, New York Mets
-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #17 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 104 K/80 innings, 6 saves, 21 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 103 K/101 innings, 3 saves, 11 holds
I was initially going to rank Lugo around No. 96, because I tend to be tough on my Mets. I'm pretty sure I saw MLB Network rank Lugo as the No. 7 overall reliever in the MLB, and my initial reaction was what are these guys smoking? Lugo felt like a one-year fad to me, but he really isn't when you look at his numbers. He was pretty consistent in both '19 and '18. He had a 2.67 ERA in 2016, too. He also has the versatility to work as a starter, middle reliever, setup man or closer. That versatility is why I'm giving him the very minimal edge over Pressly, Robles, Pagan and Barnes. Any way you slice it, we are really splitting hairs, here.
Tune in next time for the 80s!
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