Thursday, May 17, 2018

2018 Eastern Conference Finals: Has LeBron Infantilized His Teammates?

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As the Cleveland Cavaliers moped off the court Tuesday night -- heads down, shoulders slumped -- LeBron James waited with his arms extended. He slapped five with each and every one of his deflated teammates, a gesture that screamed typical LeBron. "The King" was playing for the cameras, as always, but I don't think many of us were buying the fake camaraderie.

To the contrary of his outward behavior, I wonder, is LeBron to blame for the Cavs' finger-pointing and overall dysfunction?

Before I dive into this abyss, let's get one thing straight: LeBron is the reason the Cavs have reached the Eastern Conference Finals. He's the reason they swept a better all-around team in the Raptors. So, I'm not questioning his on-court value, and I never would.

The questions here are...has LeBron pumped his teammates full of confidence? Has he welcomed Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, George Hill and Larry Nance? As the GM, head coach, leader and face of the franchise, has he gone the extra mile to make sure Koby Altman's acquisitions settled into comfortable roles within Cleveland's offense? What about simply teaching them how to play off his penetration and one-on-one playmaking?

Tuesday Hood played 11 minutes. Same for Nance. Hill scored 3 points in 33 minutes and last but not least...Clarkson was a DNP Coach's Decision!

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I mean seriously, how can that be? In just 29 minutes per game last season, Clarkson averaged 15 points for the Baby Lakers. The athletic young guard shot roughly 45% from the floor and 80% from the line. For most of his career, he's been an aggressive offensive performer with sneaky explosiveness off the bounce. That very same player is averaging 5.1 PPG this postseason on 32% FG shooting.

How can you get so much worse, playing with the best basketball player in the world? An unselfish on-court player, no less. Something isn't adding up, here.

On February 11, in Clarkson's first game with the Cavs, he went 7-of-11 with 17 points in just 23 minutes. He connected on 3-of-4 from downtown, while chipping in 3 rebounds and 2 steals. The Cavs played with a ton of energy that night, and LeBron made a concerted effort to seek out both Clarkson and Hood. The latter left-hander drilled 6-of-11 for 15 points, 3 threes and 3 rebounds. In these playoffs, Hood is averaging 4.9 points and shooting 11% from three.

So what the hell happened to these kids? Hood was considered a primary scorer for a Jazz playoff team. Clarkson was a go-to one-on-one creator for the Lakers. Why have they dissipated into thin air playing alongside LeBron?

Of course, one explanation is that they are choking. Maybe they can't handle the scrutiny of a team that gets national TV exposure and daily hot takes from industry pundits. Maybe LeBron's reputation alone is too much for them to handle. But I don't know. I saw a lot of potential in their very first game with the Cavs.

They CRUSHED the Celtics 121-99 that night. And Kyrie Irving was out there and healthy for the Celtics at that point. The Cavs were the darlings of media coverage the next day. "GM" Altman was getting plenty of positive buzz. Everyone was saying it was Cleveland's conference to lose.

Something is different now. Hood played his way out of the rotation, eventually leading to his refusal to enter a playoff game at garbage time. That's bush league, and has nothing to do with LeBron -- I personally think Hood should have been suspended by the team for the remainder of the playoffs -- but why have things devolved to this point? Why haven't Clarkson or Hood received the touches they had on night one in a Cleveland uniform?

In the end, the players have to perform. They may not like their roles or lack of rhythm touches, but you have to play well if you want an expanded role.

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The problem for LeBron, Tyronn Lue and their Cavs is that this isn't the best possible version of their team. Right now they are leaning on veterans who will do an adequate job -- Kyle Korver, Tristan Thompson and J.R. Smith -- but they didn't unload Isaiah Thomas, Dwyane Wade, Jae Crowder and Derrick Rose to get NOTHING in return.

One would think LeBron, Lue and Altman would want to conjure ways to make Clarkson, Hood and Nance integral parts of their steady rotation. That just hasn't happened. And we know LeBron has a history of taking the credit when things are going well, then throwing his teammates under the bus when they aren't.

The Warriors and Celtics thrive on positive energy passed from the front office down to the coaching staff and through the players. Everyone keeps each other upbeat. Positive plays are rewarded; negative plays are forgotten.

That's not the way it goes with LeBron. It wasn't like that with Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant, either. Some stars expect greatness, and berate anything below it.

Clarkson, Hood and Nance probably would have been better off in a more welcoming "team" environment, but that's just not the situation they are in. And they haven't made the best of it.

Can this hodgepodge group of misfit toys put it together in Game 3?

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Dissecting the Playoff Careers of CP3, Curry, Harden & Westbrook: Are These Guys Clutch?

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Late Sunday night, I was taking a beating from Mark "HD" Rue and Ernest "E-Sharp" Lindain.

The following evening, Sam Ytuarte and Billy Valeriano continued the assault on my opinions. So what were these four, sophisticated NBA minds so worked up about?

Well, I refused to call Stephen Curry "clutch." I told them all that LeBron James and Kevin Durant are at the top of the heap -- in terms of carrying over their regular season production into the postseason --  while Curry, Chris Paul, James Harden and Russell Westbrook are in a similar category...one where their clutchability can be questioned because their playoff production dips below who they've established themselves to be.

Before I get into the comparisons, I want to establish some important points:

(1) I try not to punish or reward an individual player too much for his TEAM'S ultimate success in the postseason. For example, until now, Harden has never had a Rockets' team that could compete with the depth and talent of Steph's Warriors. How can we say trite things like his team has never won it all, when he's never actually had the best team? However, this season, since the Rockets were the No. 1 seed in the West, we can knock Harden if he struggles and Houston ultimately loses in the Western Conference Finals.

(2) When I evaluate players and their teams' runs in the postseason, I compare them to what they have already established. For example, I'm not gonna say, well, Anthony Davis and the Pelicans didn't come through because they lost in the Western Conference Semifinals. Based on what we knew coming in, they went as far as they should have gone, right? They weren't beating the Warriors or Rockets, so they accomplished what they should have, if not better. Their season was a success, even though they lost.

I'm sure more will come up, but let's get into it...

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Part I: Career Postseason Averages

Chris Paul: 10 postseason appearances, 37.4 minutes per game, 21.5 pts, 9.1 asts, 4.8 rebs, 2.6 TOs, 0.1 blks, 2.2 stls, 48.5% FG, 4.9 FT attempts, 84.9% FT, 4.3 3pt attempts and 38% 3pt. 

James Harden: 9 postseason appearances, 34.5 minutes per game, 21.5 pts, 5.5 asts, 5.2 rebs, 3.2 TOs, 0.4 blks, 1.7 stls, 42.0% FG, 7.8 FT attempts, 87.1% FT, 6.4 3pt attempts and 33.6% 3pt. 

Stephen Curry: 6 postseason appearances, 37.5 minutes per game, 26.1 pts, 6.5 asts, 5.1 rebs, 3.7 TOs, 0.2 blks, 1.8 stls, 45.4% FG, 5.2 FT attempts, 89.1% FT, 10.1 3pt attempts and 41.2% 3pt. 

Russell Westbrook: 8 postseason appearances, 37.9 minutes per game, 25.5 pts, 7.8 asts, 6.9 rebs, 3.9 TOs, 0.3 blks, 1.9 stls, 41.3% FG, 7.7 FT attempts, 84.0% FT, 4.6 3pt attempts and 30% 3pt. 

Important Points and Observations

1. Directly comparing their numbers isn't the best way to analyze these players. There are dozens of reasons why, but here are a few in short order:

2. Their styles of play are different. Curry relies on the three-point line, as we can see from his 10.1 attempts per playoff game, which are more than DOUBLE both Paul and Westbrook. Harden and Westbrook love to attack the basket and get to the charity stripe, as evidenced by their nearly identical FT attempt averages around 7.7-7.8. Curry and Paul are more around 5. Three extra FT attempts per game can be valuable, particularly at the end of close games. 

3. Westbrook's usage rate is through the roof. Behind Michael Jordan, he's second in the history of the NBA in having the ball in his hands. Harden is 17th, Curry is 25th and Paul is 110th. Obviously, that makes Paul more efficient, and Westbrook less. You could say that Westbrook has an unfair advantage in the cumulative statistics, while Paul has a clear disadvantage. 

4. As you can see, Harden has the LEAST minutes per game because Scott Brooks was on Mars early in his career. "The Beard" played only 20 minutes per game in the 2009-10 playoffs. Only 31.6 minutes in 10-11, compared to 43.8 with the Rockets in 13-14. 

5. These are guards and as you can see from the stats, blocks aren't important. I am officially eliminating blocks from this discussion. 

Part II: Ranking the Importance of the Stat Categories (per game)

This is MY opinion, in terms of importance to success in basketball, particularly for star guards like these:

1. Points
2. FG% 
3. Assists 
4. Free throw attempts
5. Three-point attempts (we know the teams that attempt more threes tend to be more successful in recent years)
6. Turnovers
7. Three-point percentage
8. Rebounds
9. Free throw percentage
10. Steals

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Part III: Ranking CP3, Steph, Beard & Russ on Pure Playoff Averages

1. Points: Curry, Westbrook, Harden/Paul (tie)

2. Points, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston, only (to be fair in terms of usage and being an offensive focal point for his team): Harden, Curry, Westbrook, Paul. Harden averages 27.5 PPG. 

3. FG%: Paul, Curry, Harden, Westbrook. 

4. Assists: Paul, Westbrook, Curry, Harden. 

5. Assists, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston: Paul, Harden, Curry, Westbrook. Harden averages 7.2 APG. 

6. FT Attempts: Harden, Westbrook, Curry, Paul. 

7. 3pt Attempts: Curry, Harden, Westbrook, Paul. 

8. Turnovers (least to most): Paul, Harden, Curry, Westbrook. 

9. Turnovers, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston: Paul, Curry, Westbrook, Harden. Harden averages 4.3 turnovers per game. 

10. 3pt %: Curry, Paul, Harden, Westbrook. 

11. Rebounds: Westbrook, Harden, Curry, Paul. 

12. FT%: Curry, Harden, Paul, Westbrook. FT percentage is not very important for this group. Everyone is an excellent FT shooter. None of them are a liability. 

13: Steals: Paul, other 3 essentially tied. 

14. Steals, adjusted for Harden's time in Houston: Paul, Harden, Westbrook, Curry. Harden moves to 2.0 stls per game. Still negligible with Westbrook and Curry. Overall steals aren't very important within this foursome. 

Important Points and Observations

1. We're really splitting hairs here, aren't we?

2. It's really only fair to focus on Harden's time in Houston. Curry, Paul and Westbrook have ALWAYS been playoff focal points for their respective teams. Harden was not a focal point in OKC because of Westbrook and Durant. 

3. Harden wins points and free throw attempts. 

4. Curry wins three-point attempts, three-point percentage and free throw percentage. 

5. Paul wins FG%, assists, least turnovers and steals. 

6. Westbrook wins rebounds. 

You are free to draw your own conclusions from these results. Depends on the stat categories you value. 

Part IV: Career Regular Season Averages

Chris Paul: 13 seasons, 35.3 minutes per game, 18.7 pts, 9.8 asts, 4.5 rebs, 2.4 TOs, 2.3 stls, 47.2 FG%, 4.9 FT attempts, 86.8 FT%, 3.4 3pt attempts and 37.2 3pt %. 

James Harden: 9 seasons, 33.8 minutes per game, 23 pts, 6.1 asts, 5.1 rebs, 3.5 TOs, 1.5 stls, 44.3 FG%, 8.3 FT attempts, 85.4 FT%, 6.6 3pt attempts and 36.4 3pt %. 

Harden on the Rockets, only: 27.9 PPG, 7.7 APG, 4.3 TOs

Stephen Curry: 9 seasons, 34.4 minutes per game, 23.1 pts, 6.8 asts, 4.4 rebs, 3.2 TOs, 1.8 stls, 47.7 FG%, 4 FT attempts, 90.3 FT%, 7.8 3pt attempts and 43.6% 3pt %. 

Russell Westbrook: 10 seasons, 34.4 minutes per game, 23.0 pts, 8.2 asts, 4.0 TOs, 1.7 stls, 43.5 FG%, 7.2 FT attempts, 81.4 FT%, 3.5 3pt attempts and 31.1 3pt %. 

Part V: Comparing Regular Season Performance to the Playoffs

In my opinion, this is the BEST way to determine if a player is clutch in the playoffs, status quo or chokes a bit. I mean, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT 4 OF THE BEST PLAYERS IN THE HISTORY OF BASKETBALL, HERE. No one is disputing how good any of these guys are. To pick between them is generally a matter of preference. 

But...if we're talking about clutch...well, shouldn't you at least be able to duplicate your regular season output? Maybe not because defenses are tougher and opposing teams are better. Who the hell knows? So many questions and hypotheticals...

The most important comparisons are points, FG%, assists, turnovers, FT attempts, 3pt attempts and 3pt%. 

Chris Paul: Increases 2.8 PPG, Drops 0.7 APG, Adds 0.2 TOs, Increases 1.3% FG, exactly the same FT attempts, adds 0.9 3pt attempts and Increases 0.8% in 3pt. Summary: Improves in 4 categories, gets worse in 2, stays the same in 1

James Harden (first 3 categories, Rockets only, rest are all-inclusive): Drops 0.4 PPG, Drops 0.5 APG, exact same turnovers, Drops 2.3% FG, Drops 2.8 3pt% too lazy for FT and 3pt attempt calculations, but both of his increase in the playoffs. Summary: Improves in 2 categories, gets worse in 4, stays the same in 1

Stephen Curry: Increases 3 PPG, Drops 0.3 APG, Adds 0.5 TOs, Drops 2.3% FG, Adds 1.2 FT attempts, adds 2.3 3pt attempts and Drops 2.4% in 3pt. Summary: Improves in 3 categories, gets worse in 4

Russell Westbrook: Increases 2.5 PPG, Drops 0.4 asts, Drops 0.1 TOs, FG% Drops 2.2, Increases 0.5 FT attempts, Increases 3pt attempts by 2.9 and Increases 3 pt% by 2.5. Summary: Improves in 4 categories, gets worse in 2, essentially the same in turnovers

Important Points and Observations

1. Paul, Curry and Westbrook all have significant point increases. Harden is basically status quo. 

2. Paul attempts an extra three-pointer per game in the playoffs, and his percentage goes UP. 

3. Harden has notable drops in FG% and 3pt%. 

4. Curry has notable drops in FG% and 3pt%. 

5. Westbrook has a notable drop in FG%. 

6. Who would have thought that Westbrook's three-point percentage would INCREASE by 2.5?

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Part VI: Team Success

1. Playoff appearances: Paul (10), Harden (9), Westbrook (8) and Curry (6). 

2. Conference Finals appearances: Curry (4, 1 pending), Harden (4, 1 pending), Westbrook (4) and Paul (1). 

3. NBA Finals appearances: Curry (3), Westbrook (1), Harden (1) and Paul (0). 

4. NBA Finals wins: Curry (2), Harden (0), Westbrook (0) and Paul (0). 

I think Part V is the best indicator of clutchability, but everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion. 

So...what is your conclusion?

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

MLB Top 250 Players: Electric Aces, Outstanding Outfielders and A Special Second Baseman Top My List

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With the NBA Playoffs and NFL Draft dominating recent headlines here at John Frascella Sports, my MLB Top 250 Players series has been forced to take a backseat. With that in mind, I'm going to wrap it up in one shot. Here's how we got to this point:

Players 250 down to 240
Players 239 down to 230
Players 229 down to 201
Players 200 down to 180

And remember, these rankings were compiled PRIOR to the 2018 MLB season. Countdown...right now:

179. Greg Holland, RP, Cardinals

178. Maikel Franco, 3B, Phillies

177. Adam Eaton, OF, Nationals

176. Rich Hill, SP, Dodgers

175. Steven Souza, OF, Diamondbacks

174. Alex Cobb, SP, Orioles

173. Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers

172. Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers

171. Danny Duffy, SP, Royals

170. Sonny Gray, SP, Yankees

169. Fernando Rodney, CP, Twins

168. Jed Lowrie, 2B, A's

167. Justin Bour, 1B, Marlins

166. Kevin Kiermaier, CF, Rays

165. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Rangers

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164. Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners

163. Ian Happ, OF, Cubs

162. Mark Trumbo, DH, Orioles

161. Kendrys Morales, DH, Blue Jays

160. Whit Merrifield, 2B, Royals

159. J.T. Realmuto, C, Marlins

158. Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Phillies

157. Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox

156. Dylan Bundy, SP, Orioles

155. Scooter Gennett, 2B, Reds

154. Jon Gray, SP, Rockies

153. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Red Sox

152. Marwin Gonzalez, Utility, Astros

151. Cole Hamels, SP, Rangers

150. Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds

149. Jeurys Familia, CP, Mets

148. Roberto Osuna, CP, Blue Jays

147. Ken Giles, CP, Astros

146. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins

145. Logan Morrison, DH, Twins

144. Brad Hand, RP, Padres

143. Kevin Pillar, OF, Blue Jays

142. Lance Lynn, SP, Twins

141. David Robertson, RP, Yankees

140. Chris Taylor, OF, Dodgers

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139. Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers

138. Brett Gardner, OF, Dodgers

137. Ender Inciarte, OF, Braves

136. Evan Longoria, 3B, Giants

135. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies

134. Domingo Santana, OF, Brewers

133. Matt Carpenter, 3B, Cardinals

132. Trey Mancini, OF, Orioles

131. Raisel Iglesias, CP, Reds

130. Rick Porcello, SP, Red Sox

129. Felipe Rivero, CP, Pirates

128. Zach Britton, CP, Orioles

127. Josh Bell, 1B, Pirates

126. Cody Allen, CP, Indians

125. Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants

124. Kyle Seager, 3B, Mariners

123. Joey Gallo, 1B, Rangers

122. Eduardo Nunez, Utility, Red Sox

121. Drew Pomeranz, SP, Red Sox

120. J.A. Happ, SP, Blue Jays

119. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Angels

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118. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros

117. Willson Contreras, C, Cubs

116. Yuli Gurriel, 1B, Astros

115. Michael Conforto, OF, Mets

114. Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins

113. Marcus Stroman, SP, Blue Jays

112. Jose Berrios, SP, Twins

111. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, Yankees

110. Wil Myers, OF, Padres

109. Avisail Garcia, OF, White Sox

108. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Royals

107. Alex Colome, CP, Rays

106. Jose Quintana, SP, Cubs

105. David Price, SP, Red Sox

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104. Rhys Hoskins, OF, Phillies

103. DJ LeMahieu, 2B, Rockies

102. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox

101. Zack Cozart, 3B, Angels

JOHN FRASCELLA'S TOP 100 MLB PLAYERS

100. Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, Nationals

99. Carlos Santana, 1B, Phillies

98. Hanley Ramirez, Utility, Red Sox

97. Michael Fulmer, SP, Tigers

96. Alex Wood, SP, Dodgers

95. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins

94. Lance McCullers, SP, Astros

93. Salvador Perez, C, Royals

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92. Yadier Molina, C, Cardinals

91. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers

90. Travis Shaw, 3B, Brewers

89. James Paxton, SP, Mariners

88. Miguel Sano, 3B, Twins

87. Starling Marte, OF, Pirates

86. Jean Segura, SS, Mariners

85. Christian Yelich, OF, Brewers

84. Adam Duvall, OF, Reds

83. Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Orioles

82. Johnny Cueto, SP, Giants

81. Jay Bruce, OF, Mets

80. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers

79. Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals

78. Trevor Bauer, SP, Indians

77. Wade Davis, CP, Rockies

76. Jake Lamb, 3B, Diamondbacks

75. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox

74. Corey Knebel, CP, Brewers

73. Adam Jones, OF, Orioles

72. Justin Smoak, 1B, Blue Jays

71. Luis Severino, SP, Yankees

70. Chris Archer, SP, Rays

69. Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers

68. Gerrit Cole, SP, Astros

67. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Indians

66. Robbie Ray, SP, Diamondbacks

65. Jon Lester, SP, Cubs

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64. A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks

63. Kyle Hendricks, SP, Cubs

62. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers

61. Tommy Pham, OF, Cardinals

60. Trea Turner, SS, Nationals

59. Didi Gregorius, SS, Yankees

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58. Yu Darvish, SP, Cubs

57. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Giants

56. Lorenzo Cain, OF, Brewers

55. Dee Gordon, OF, Mariners

54. Carlos Martinez, SP, Cardinals

53. Jake Arrieta, SP, Phillies

52. Aroldis Chapman, CP, Yankees

51. Buster Posey, C, Giants

THE TOP 50 BASEBALL PLAYERS IN THE WORLD

50. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals

49. Cody Bellinger, 1B, Dodgers

48. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Padres

47. Andrew Miller, RP, Indians

46. Justin Upton, OF, Angels

45. Robinson Cano, 2B, Mariners

44. Kenley Jansen, CP, Dodgers

43. Zack Greinke, SP, Diamondbacks

42. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Indians

41. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Cubs

40. Craig Kimbrel, CP, Red Sox

39. Dallas Keuchel, SP, Astros

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38. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets

37. Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees

36. Khris Davis, OF, A's

35. Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants

34. Brian Dozier, 2B, Twins

33. Jose Abreu, 1B, White Sox

32. Noah Syndergaard, SP, Mets

31. George Springer, OF, Astros

30. Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers

29. Jose Ramirez, 3B, Indians

28. Marcell Ozuna, OF, Cardinals

27. Justin Turner, 3B, Dodgers

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26. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Nationals

THE TOP 25 BALLPLAYERS IN THE UNIVERSE

25. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays

24. Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

23. Daniel Murphy, 2B, Nationals

22. Jacob deGrom, SP, Mets

21. Manny Machado, SS/3B, Orioles

20. Mookie Betts, OF, Red Sox

19. Francisco Lindor, SS, Indians

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18. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves

17. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees

16. Nelson Cruz, DH, Mariners

15. Carlos Correa, SS, Astros

14. Kris Bryant, 3B, Cubs

13. J.D. Martinez, OF, Red Sox

12. Corey Kluber, SP, Indians

11. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds

THE ABSOLUTE BEST OF THE BEST

10. Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies

9. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Rockies

8. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks

7. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees

6. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers

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5. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals

4. Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox

3. Mike Trout, OF, Angels

2. Max Scherzer, SP, Nationals

1. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros

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ANGRY DISAGREEMENTS ARE ALWAYS WELCOME!