Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Frascella's NFL Top 100, Part 1: Lemme Get Some Mostert with that Hot Dog

Photo Credit: The Mercury News

After a surprisingly smooth and successful virtual draft, the NFL remains an extremely hot topic of discussion on social media and in the mainstream news. You know the deal...we gotta strike while the iron is hot! Here come my top 100 players in the NFL...

But first, we must establish my criteria:

1. 50% of the weight: "The Eye Test" - my own personal assessment of the player's talent, productivity and overall impact on winning. This has to come first, otherwise it wouldn't be my list. 

2. 20%: Stats. The raw numbers. 

3. 10%: Impact on winning in pressure situations and most importantly, the playoffs. 

4. 10%: The experts over at Pro Football Focus really know their stuff; they examine every single play of the NFL season, and I trust their detailed analyses. I'm giving 10% of the weight to their 2019 Top 101 NFL Players

5. 10%: Recent Pro Bowl selections. Thanks to the coaches, players and fans to their contributions, here. 

Please note: I use logic. The quarterback position is the most influential in all of professional sports, and I absolutely take that into account (PFF does not, in their rankings). 

And finally, these are currently the best players in the NFL. I'm not really getting into projections here, but I will consider circumstances where necessary. For example, Philip Rivers is now a Colt, and they have a much better offensive line than the Chargers. Rivers still is who he is, but far superior protection should help his performance. You get the idea. Let's roll...

100. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

-Key 2019 Stat: 510 rushing yards
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

I don't give a damn how you get the job done...just get it done. This is the modern NFL, and some of the best quarterbacks in the game are downright deadly with their legs. Sure, Allen is still raw and needs a lot of work as a pure passer, but his 510 rushing yards were third at his position, trailing only Kyler Murray and MVP Lamar Jackson. Allen is an irritant for opposing defenses; they think they have everything covered, then he takes off with surprising speed for his size. He still threw for over 3,000 yards with 20 passing TDs, and his upstart Bills reached the postseason. We'll see if he can improve as a passer this season. 

99. Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

-Key 2019 Stat: 133 total yards and 2 TDs in the Super Bowl
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Here's a quick punchline...Josh Allen actually had more rushing yards on the season than Williams (498). But, hey man...recency bias can get you on my list! Williams was one of the only standouts in the Chiefs' exciting Super Bowl victory, and the reality is that he always makes them better. He only played in 11 regular season games, and while LeSean McCoy and others did an admirable job attempting to fill in, things weren't quite perfect for the Chiefs. They are at their absolute best with Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Watkins and Williams out there at the same time. 

98. Tyron Smith, T, Dallas Cowboys

-Key 2019 Stat: 7th-straight Pro Bowl selection. Is that a stat?
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

I think we all know about the Cowboys' vaunted offensive line at this point. Tyron may be getting older and declining just a bit, but he's still one of the best and most reliable Tackles in the game. He's not the best offensive lineman on his own team at this point, though. 

97. Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers

-Key 2019 Stat: 336 yards and 5 TDs in the playoffs
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Here's a great spot for The Eye Test...did you see what I saw in the postseason? Mostert and Derrick Henry were the best running backs in the game. Mostert was running hard, and downhill, every single time he touched the rock. Defenders were sidestepping him; they didn't want any part of the freight train. Credit the Shanahan family's legendary run-blocking schemes, but Mostert also delivers on his end of the deal. He's a bad man. 

96. Ronnie Stanley, T, Baltimore Ravens

-Key 2019 Stat: Allowed zero sacks
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 
-Pro Football Focus: #16 overall player

Obviously the guy is a monster...but how much credit do we have to give to Jackson's legs? How many times was he gone - out of the pocket before the rush could even get to him? Regardless, Stanley was a Pro Bowl starter and Pro Football Focus had him as the No. 16 overall player in the NFL. Maybe 96 isn't fair. Still, in my mind, offensive line play is collective. My instinct is to credit the guys around them, nearly as much. 

95. John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills

-Key 2019 Stat: 1,060 yards
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Seventy-two catches, 1,060 yards and six touchdowns...that's probably pretty hard to do with Josh Allen slingin' it, right? Brown has always been a very talented receiver, but he's only "5'11" (yeah, right) and injuries have gotten to him multiple times in the past. All things considered, he's a slick route runner with sneaky breakaway speed. 

94. Kyle Van Noy, Edge, Miami Dolphins

-Key 2019 Stat: 60 QB pressures
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 
-Pro Football Focus: #59 overall player

A big-time pickup for Brian Flores and the Dolphins, here. Van Noy also passes The Eye Test; the Patriots' D featured some greats like Gillmore, McCourty and Hightower, yet Van Noy always found a way to stand out. The AFC East is wide open this season...don't sleep on these improving Dolphins. Van Noy can and will be a defensive leader and MVP for them. 

93. Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams

-Key 2019 Stat: 4,638 yards (3rd-most overall)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. 
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked. 

We all know Goff fell off a cliff this past season, but we can be a little more patient with quarterbacks than other positions on this list. He just led the Rams to the Super Bowl - it was only two seasons ago. If he sucks again this year, he'll fall out of my top 100. But I'm sure Sean McVay will coach with an awful lot to prove - I expect better results from Goff and the Rams. His 4,638 yards were more than Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, by the way. 

92. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

-Key 2019 Stat: 117.5 QB rating (best in the game)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 
Pro Football Focus: #61 overall player

Ah, Mr. Tannehill - the great enigma. Who is this guy, really? We all remember Hard Knocks when he couldn't even name the four teams in the AFC East. We were led to believe he wasn't the brightest bulb...but I dunno. How can you just come out of nowhere and drop a ridiculous 117.5 QB rating on us? Tannehill definitely has some tricks up his sleeve. If he comes even close to repeating his performance this season, he will absolutely be promoted to my top 50. 

91. Anthony Harris, S, Minnesota Vikings

-Key 2019 Stat: 6 interceptions (most in the game)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 
Pro Football Focus: #12 overall player

How about that? PFF has him as the No. 12 overall player in the game and he wasn't even a Pro Bowl selection. This is what happens when you play alongside Harrison Smith, one of the absolute best safeties of his generation. Yet and still, Harris stands on his own. He's a ball hawk with uncanny field vision. He does his homework, and his ability to anticipate is probably unparalleled at his position. This guy's a stud; plain and simple. 

90. Von Miller, Edge, Denver Broncos

-Key 2019 Stat: 8 sacks
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Look, I'm gonna be straight with you...here's my concern with Von: does he understand that the Broncos can't compete with the Chiefs in the AFC West, so he's kind of mailing it in? He just didn't exert himself last season. We have to see if he's reinvigorated by Drew Lock, Jerry Jeudy and Melvin Gordon. Maybe he thinks Denver will return to respectability. We'll just have to wait and see on this. 

Tune in next time for the 80s!

Part 2, Players 80-89

Part 3, Players 70-79

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