After a busy couple months with my wedding and honeymoon, we're back in the swing of things here at John Frascella Sports. Don't forget to check out my NFL Team Power Rankings before diving in to my Week 8 picks against the spread. A quick season recap to this point:
Week 1: 9-7 (3-0 in best bets: Eagles, Dolphins and Redskins)
Week 2: 8-8 (0-3 in best bets: Steelers, Panthers and Broncos)
Week 3: 7-9 (2-1 in best bets: Redskins, Steelers and Chargers)
Week 4: 6-8-1 (3-0 in best bets: Patriots, Texans and Titans)
Weeks 5, 6 & 7: Wedding and honeymoon
Overall: 30-32-1 (8-4 in best bets) - you should probably go with my best bets instead of all my picks, haha. Okay, here we go...
Houston Texans over Miami Dolphins, 24-17 (Dolphins cover +7.5)
It's a revenge game for Brock Osweiler -- who has been surprisingly competent in the absence of Ryan Tannehill, who may actually be worse -- and Texans' HC Bill O'Brien has publicly admitted that Deshaun Watson is playing through a variety of injuries. Without Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, I simply don't think the Dolphins are good enough to win this game outright, but they may squeeze out a cover if O'Brien leans on Lamar Miller to protect Watson. That will keep the clock running; Miami doesn't want to end up in a shootout.
Philadelphia Eagles over Jacksonville Jaguars, 24-16 (Eagles cover -3)
Both of these Final Four teams are shells of their former selves. Between Blake Bortles' porous play and Leonard Fournette's annoying injuries, Jacksonville's offense doesn't even exist at this point. They'll look for a boost from newly-acquired Carlos Hyde, but I don't think he's good enough to protect Bortles the way Fournette does when healthy. Doug Marrone knew he was walking a tightrope from the beginning with this group -- they have to play slow, drain the clock, limit turnovers and rely on defense and winning close games -- and that small window for success is only tightening now. The Eagles have a better chance to turn their ship around, and the line has already jumped from -2 to -3.5 on some sites.
Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns, 31-21 (Steelers cover -8)
The Hue Jackson Horror Show has to end eventually -- maybe this will be it. The Steelers' momentum hasn't started rolling yet, and this is a good place to start in a division statement game against hotshot rookie QB Baker Mayfield. The last meeting between these two teams ended in a 21-21 tie, and Mike Tomlin's boys were clearly embarrassed by the result. I expect Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster to pile up the offensive production in this one. The line has moved from -7.5 to as high as -9.5 on some sites.
Kansas City Chiefs over Denver Broncos, 35-27 (Broncos cover +10)
Oooooh, this is a tough one. The Broncos certainly seemed like they could hang with the high-powered Chiefs in their first meeting, but that was at Mile High Stadium. I can't really envision a scenario where the Broncos win outright at KC, but I think Denver is feeling a bit better about itself after an absolute drubbing of the lowly Cardinals. I see some line movement from -9.5 to as high as -11, but I don't trust Andy Reid's defense enough for KC to cover 10 points against a Denver offense led by solid producers in Emmanuel Sanders, Phillip Lindsay and Demaryius Thomas.
Chicago Bears over New York Jets, 20-14 (Jets cover +7.5)
I have no faith in my Jets' offense against Khalil Mack, Danny Trevathan and the dangerous Chicago D, but 75% of the public is on the Bears and this line is just too high. If it was -3 moving to -3.5 I'd probably take the Bears, but at -7 moving to -7.5 I like the Jets to sneak in under the spread.
New York Giants over Washington Redskins, 24-21 (Giants cover +1) BEST BET
I've had a very good read on the 'Skins this season, including a couple of Best Bet victories with them on top. This week, it's 82% on the Redskins and everyone is dogging the Giants. The betting circumstances scream suckers, you gotta take the Redskins! which means I'm definitely going with the G-Men. I don't trust Pat Shurmur, Eli Manning or the depleted Giants' D, but sometimes you just have to make the right play. The Redskins are not a dominant division-leading team. Betting factors say ride with the Giants, here.
Detroit Lions over Seattle Seahawks, 28-24 (Lions cover -3)
This one could go either way, but it's 62% on the Seahawks at the moment. The public is feeling better about them now after a slow start, so it seems like a smarter play to lean Detroit at home. This particular spread will probably come down to the final two or three minutes of the game.
All right...I have to head out to my parents' 40th anniversary celebration!! Rest of the picks comin' in quick...
Cincinnati Bengals over Tampa Bay Bucs, 31-28 (Bucs cover +3.5)
Baltimore Ravens over Carolina Panthers, 27-20 (Ravens cover -2.5) BEST BET - line moved from Panthers -1 to Ravens -2.5 and still only 44% on Baltimore.
Indianapolis Colts over Oakland Raiders 27-17 (Colts cover -3)
San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals 24-13 (49ers cover -2)
Los Angeles Rams over Green Bay Packers 35-31 (Packers cover +8.5)
New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings, 31-24 (Saints cover -1) BEST BET
New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills, 38-3 (Patriots cover -14)
Good luck, everyone!
Saturday, October 27, 2018
Thursday, October 25, 2018
NFL Week 8 Power Rankings: Do You Trust the Rams More than the Pats?
Long time, no speak!
I'm back from my Honeymoon in Hawaii, and completely refreshed. Let's jump right into my Power Rankings...
PLEASE NOTE: I do NOT simply rank teams by current record. There would be no point in even doing this. I try to read between the lines and see where teams are headed as we move forward.
I'm back from my Honeymoon in Hawaii, and completely refreshed. Let's jump right into my Power Rankings...
PLEASE NOTE: I do NOT simply rank teams by current record. There would be no point in even doing this. I try to read between the lines and see where teams are headed as we move forward.
TIER 4: I Hope You Have Basketball or Hockey Teams to Watch
32. Oakland Raiders (1-5): Turmoil isn't even the word. Jon Gruden is cleaning house, but I wouldn't exactly say he's going about it the right way. Apparently he told his team Amari Cooper wouldn't be traded, and shortly after he was being yanked off the practice field. That doesn't inspire trust from your players. With Khalil Mack and Cooper gone, Derek Carr crying on the field and poor all-around personnel, these Raiders are currently the worst of the worst.
31. Arizona Cardinals (1-6): I thought things would get better with Josh Rosen in place of Sam Bradford, but then I watched that Thursday Night Game against Denver. The Broncos aren't good, and yet the Cardinals made them look like a dominant, Super-Bowl caliber team. Rookie HC Steve Wilks and former OC Mike McCoy (fired this week) have done a horrendous job, and this club is going nowhere fast.
30. Buffalo Bills (2-5): They looked a little more competent with rookie Josh Allen under center, but what can we really say about Derek Anderson and Nathan Peterman? Allen's elbow injury has him sidelined, and "Shady" McCoy picked up a head injury. This was already a piss-poor team, and now we're talking about two of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, on top of a handful of key injuries. Every week I pick up the fantasy defense that is playing against Buffalo.
29. New York Giants (1-6): Anyone else getting the feeling that the Giants have absolutely no idea what they are doing? Last season Eli Manning bullied Bob McAdoo out of the logical decision to give Davis Webb a shot, and this season things are getting even worse. The Giants passed on Rosen, Allen and Sam Darnold for RB Saquon Barkley -- I'm sorry, this is not a running back-centric league -- because Eli convinced GM Dave Gettleman and HC Pat Shurmur that he had more left in the tank. He doesn't. That tank has been running on empty for quite a while. Now Gettleman traded CB Eli Apple, just as he was starting to come into his own. The Giants are a mess. There's no method to the madness. They'll need a new QB next year.
28. San Francisco 49ers (1-6): The Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon injuries were season-killers, but Kyle Shanahan keeps this team respectable. They may not win many games with C.J. Beathard calling the signals, but they only lost by two to the Chargers (who are 5-2) and they hung around with the Chiefs and Vikings, as well. They come to play every week. They are the most competitive club in Tier 4.
TIER 3: Mediocrity Reigns Supreme
27. Cleveland Browns (2-4-1): Baker Mayfield has given this lowly franchise a little spark, but they still have hapless Hue Jackson as their head coach, and now he's throwing OC Todd Haley under the bus. Talk about dysfunctional. Antonio Callaway has been a bust, and the Rashard Higgins injury certainly isn't helping Mayfield's development. The pair developed chemistry in the preseason, when Tyrod Taylor was running with the 1s. Good news for Cleveland is that Myles Garrett is panning out (7 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) and on the whole, Gregg Williams' D finds ways to create turnovers. There are some reasons for optimism, here.
26. Indianapolis Colts (2-5): Depending on the format you are in, Andrew Luck is the 3rd, 4th or 5th-best fantasy quarterback this season. Not half bad, coming off a major injury and playing without T.Y. Hilton most of the time. I've never been the biggest Luck fan, but I can certainly appreciate his leadership, energy and competitiveness. He's getting a lot out of a little this season. Marlon Mack looks ready to bring stability to Indy's rushing attack, as well.
25. Denver Broncos (3-4): If only they could play the Cardinals every game. Emmanuel Sanders and Phillip Lindsay went bonkers against Arizona, while the Denver D picked up two pick-sixes (Todd Davis and Chris Harris). The Broncos have some respectable vets - Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, Harris and Von Miller -- but on the whole this is a run-of-the-mill team. I wouldn't count them out week to week, but the Chiefs and Chargers are clearly far superior clubs in the AFC West.
24. Dallas Cowboys (3-4): Talk about a boring team. Most of the action comes from fans calling for Jason Garrett's head. We know who these guys are -- they wanna rush-protect, pound the rock with Ezekiel Elliott and play close, low-scoring games. It's the only way they can compete. They simply don't have the personnel.
23. New York Jets (3-4): The Jets' skill players are droppin' like flies. Quincy Enunwa, Sam Darnold's favorite target, is injured; Terrelle Pryor got hurt and released, and now it appears that Bilal Powell's career is over. GM Mike Maccagnan responded with the signing of free agent Rishard Matthews, but I still don't think Darnold has enough weapons to win consistently in his rookie season. I'm thinking more like 2020.
22. Tennessee Titans (3-4): Boring.
21. Miami Dolphins (4-3): DeVante Parker's agent has been ripping HC Adam Gase to shreds in the media, but I still think Gase does a decent job with what he has. Was anyone really expecting these 'Phins to make a lot of noise this season? The fact is that Gase scrapped together four wins with a less-than-stellar personnel group.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4): Ah, how the mighty have fallen -- and yet, should we really be surprised? Doug Marrone's Jags were an easy regression candidate because of Blake Bortles, and the simple reality that they won a lot of close games last year. That's difficult to repeat; just ask the Panthers, who went 15-1 and then 4-12 the following year with essentially the same team. In addition, Jalen Ramsey did an awful lot of yappin' during the offseason, and that generally doesn't turn out well.
19. Houston Texans (4-3): HC Bill O'Brien has admitted that Deshaun Watson is playing hurt, but somehow these Texans have strung together four consecutive victories. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney have led the way with inspiring defensive play. Regardless of the extent of Watson's injuries, you can never sleep on DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller through the air.
18. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-3): They can't stop a high school team defensively, but ya know what? This is an offense-driven league, particularly this season, and Dirk Koetter's squad has talent with Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin. Winston has been better than expected since returning, so for this team to win going forward, they'll just need to have the ball last. They ain't makin' any stops.
17. Chicago Bears (3-3): I really, really like rookie HC Matt Nagy, but I think the early-season Hype Train got a little too hot, here. These young Bears are in an experienced division with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford and a Vikings team that reached the NFC Championship Game last season, so I don't think it's quite their time, yet. I'm thinking 7-9 for Chicago, as the Packers and Vikings duke it out for the division title.
16. Detroit Lions (3-3): Rookie HC Matt Patricia's tenure got off to a rocky start with a shellacking at the hands of my Jets (on national TV, no less), but he has since righted the ship. These Lions are who we think they are -- they will end up around 8-8 -- but at least they have strong receiving talent with Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. Stafford makes you competitive, generally speaking.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4): Maybe I'm being a little too generous here, but I love these guys because they shocked smug Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the annoying Pats in the Super Bowl, with a back-up QB at the helm, no less. Look, let's be real, the Eagles aren't the team they were last year. Carson Wentz still needs a lot of time to get right physically, and RB1 Jay Ajayi is out for the season. They blew a three-score lead this weekend against the Panthers. Doug Pederson's saving grace is that the Redskins are not a scary division leader.
14. Cincinnati Bengals (4-3): Kind of like the Lions, in that we know who they are. They aren't going anywhere in the long run, but at least they have a nice offensive foursome of Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. The Tyler Eifert injury was a killer, though.
13. Washington Redskins (4-2): These 'Skins are mimicking last year's Jags in some ways -- they're winning the close ones against mediocre teams with some underwhelming offensive outputs, while losing to clearly superior squads. The way the NFC East looks right now, you can win the division with that pattern. Jay Gruden's boys don't do anything special, but they have a shot to squeak this division out.
12. Baltimore Ravens (4-3): John Brown (and the drafting of Lamar Jackson) has lit a fire under Joe Flacco, but these are mostly the same ol' Ravens. They aren't that dissimilar from the Lions and Bengals, in that we know what to expect from year to year. I think Baltimore is a bit better offensively with Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, but I don't see a postseason threat here. I like John Harbaugh and their experience in tight games, though.
11. Seattle Seahawks (3-3): Things were looking awfully shaky early, but Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have steadied the boat since. These aren't the "Legion of Boom" dominant Seahawks, but when you're toiling in mediocrity, sometimes all ya need is a strong coach-QB combo. Seattle has that, and Doug Baldwin's presence in the passing game is a boost.
22. Tennessee Titans (3-4): Boring.
21. Miami Dolphins (4-3): DeVante Parker's agent has been ripping HC Adam Gase to shreds in the media, but I still think Gase does a decent job with what he has. Was anyone really expecting these 'Phins to make a lot of noise this season? The fact is that Gase scrapped together four wins with a less-than-stellar personnel group.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4): Ah, how the mighty have fallen -- and yet, should we really be surprised? Doug Marrone's Jags were an easy regression candidate because of Blake Bortles, and the simple reality that they won a lot of close games last year. That's difficult to repeat; just ask the Panthers, who went 15-1 and then 4-12 the following year with essentially the same team. In addition, Jalen Ramsey did an awful lot of yappin' during the offseason, and that generally doesn't turn out well.
19. Houston Texans (4-3): HC Bill O'Brien has admitted that Deshaun Watson is playing hurt, but somehow these Texans have strung together four consecutive victories. J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney have led the way with inspiring defensive play. Regardless of the extent of Watson's injuries, you can never sleep on DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller through the air.
18. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-3): They can't stop a high school team defensively, but ya know what? This is an offense-driven league, particularly this season, and Dirk Koetter's squad has talent with Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin. Winston has been better than expected since returning, so for this team to win going forward, they'll just need to have the ball last. They ain't makin' any stops.
17. Chicago Bears (3-3): I really, really like rookie HC Matt Nagy, but I think the early-season Hype Train got a little too hot, here. These young Bears are in an experienced division with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford and a Vikings team that reached the NFC Championship Game last season, so I don't think it's quite their time, yet. I'm thinking 7-9 for Chicago, as the Packers and Vikings duke it out for the division title.
16. Detroit Lions (3-3): Rookie HC Matt Patricia's tenure got off to a rocky start with a shellacking at the hands of my Jets (on national TV, no less), but he has since righted the ship. These Lions are who we think they are -- they will end up around 8-8 -- but at least they have strong receiving talent with Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. Stafford makes you competitive, generally speaking.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4): Maybe I'm being a little too generous here, but I love these guys because they shocked smug Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the annoying Pats in the Super Bowl, with a back-up QB at the helm, no less. Look, let's be real, the Eagles aren't the team they were last year. Carson Wentz still needs a lot of time to get right physically, and RB1 Jay Ajayi is out for the season. They blew a three-score lead this weekend against the Panthers. Doug Pederson's saving grace is that the Redskins are not a scary division leader.
14. Cincinnati Bengals (4-3): Kind of like the Lions, in that we know who they are. They aren't going anywhere in the long run, but at least they have a nice offensive foursome of Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon, A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. The Tyler Eifert injury was a killer, though.
13. Washington Redskins (4-2): These 'Skins are mimicking last year's Jags in some ways -- they're winning the close ones against mediocre teams with some underwhelming offensive outputs, while losing to clearly superior squads. The way the NFC East looks right now, you can win the division with that pattern. Jay Gruden's boys don't do anything special, but they have a shot to squeak this division out.
12. Baltimore Ravens (4-3): John Brown (and the drafting of Lamar Jackson) has lit a fire under Joe Flacco, but these are mostly the same ol' Ravens. They aren't that dissimilar from the Lions and Bengals, in that we know what to expect from year to year. I think Baltimore is a bit better offensively with Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, but I don't see a postseason threat here. I like John Harbaugh and their experience in tight games, though.
11. Seattle Seahawks (3-3): Things were looking awfully shaky early, but Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson have steadied the boat since. These aren't the "Legion of Boom" dominant Seahawks, but when you're toiling in mediocrity, sometimes all ya need is a strong coach-QB combo. Seattle has that, and Doug Baldwin's presence in the passing game is a boost.
TIER 2: Six Quality QBs with Incomplete Teams
10. Atlanta Falcons (3-4): Obviously they have the worst record in my top 10, but the key is that the high-powered Atlanta offense is back this season. Matt Ryan has returned to elite form, spreading the ball around to Julio Jones, stud rookie Calvin Ridley and a handful of others. Kyle Shanahan was clearly missed last year, but the Falcons have made critical offensive adjustments in their second season without him calling the plays. Sure they have a losing record at the moment, but I expect the Falcons to reach the postseason for the third consecutive year. They'll outscore teams the rest of the way out.
9. Carolina Panthers (4-2): I don't consider them a Super Bowl threat, but ya gotta like the toughness in leadership with Ron Rivera and Cam Newton. These Panthers don't quit, and they'll grind until the final whistle blows.
8. Minnesota Vikings (4-2-1): In a vacuum, we all think Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than Case Keenum, but something just doesn't feel right about this year's Vikings. Sure, they should have another in the win column -- since-released kicker Dan Carlson imploded against the Packers -- but things aren't really flowing on either side of the ball. We all remember the shocking loss to the Bills, and I wouldn't say Minnesota was very convincing against the young Jets this past weekend. Mike Zimmer's team is clearly talented, but his personnel needs to mesh better as the season progresses.
7. Green Bay Packers (3-2-1): If you wanna say Aaron Rodgers isn't 100 percent, go ahead -- that's probably (definitely) true. But he's still Superman. Two jaw-dropping comebacks already this season. We saw how awful Green Bay was without him last year, and his presence alone this season makes them a top-10 team. Like the Bucs and Falcons before them on this list, the Packers don't exactly play a lot of defense. They'll have to finish games with the ball in their hands. Or better yet, in Rodgers' right hand.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2-1): All I hear about in the media is Le'Veon Bell, Le'Veon Bell, Le'Veon Bell...and yet James Conner has been one of the elite running backs in the NFL this season. We know we can trust Mike Tomlin, Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown to get it done down the stretch -- they have the "proven" factor. With many teams in the 3-3, 4-2 range, I'm always leaning in favor of experience and reliable winners.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (5-2): They are doing what the Saints did last year. After three consecutive 7-9 seasons, the Saints' high-powered offense finally broke through for a convincing winning season in '17. Philip Rivers' Chargers have been floating aimlessly in mediocrity the past handful of years, and things are finally working out this season. We know the have the explosive talent in Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and more; the difference now is that the close games are resulting in victories.
TIER 1: Super Bowl Contenders
4. New Orleans Saints (5-1): Is Drew Brees the best role model in all of sports? So happy for this guy and his family. His diminutive stature has caused scouts to doubt his ability throughout his football career, and yet here he is, at the top of the all-time heap. Sean Payton and Brees bring that coach-QB stability; the same we've seen from Belichick and Brady, Tomlin and Roethlisberger, Carroll and Wilson, and now Sean McVay and Jared Goff, as well as Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes. Noticing a trend?
3. Kansas City Chiefs (6-1): I mean, how can you NOT love Mahomes? That switch-to-lefty throw mimicked Michael Jordan's pure athletic magic. I hope Mahomes sustains this over time, because we saw Deshaun Watson get off to a similar start to his career last year, and injuries have already gotten in the way of his development. Tyreek Hill is easily one of the best football players in the world. Kareem Hunt is an excellent back. It's definitely looking like a Chiefs-Pats AFC Championship Game, at this point.
2. New England Patriots (5-2): Slow start, but they took down the Chiefs on a big stage. It's really simple with this team...if they are down 2 late, don't you think they are going to go down and win it with a field goal? If they are down 6 late, don't you expect a touchdown and extra point to win it? We expect these things because Brady and Belichick have delivered, time and time again. I can't put Reid and Mahomes ahead of them, yet.
1. Los Angeles Rams (7-0): This is out of respect for being undefeated. Same thing I said about Mahomes...how can you NOT love McVay? A young, hungry, energetic, dedicated genius. The Rams have been technically flawless, thanks to McVay's preparation and positive leadership. I'm not sure I'd take them to beat the Pats in the Super Bowl, but they haven't lost a game yet. They've earned this No. 1 spot...for now.
Thursday, October 4, 2018
ALDS Preview & Prediction: "The Rivalry" is Back, and One Elite Team is Going Down in Flames
Billy Beane's analytics-driven "opener" strategy didn't work out. In the American League Wild Card Game, Oakland's opener Liam Hendriks was greeted rudely by an Andrew McCutchen walk and a vicious home run off the bat of Aaron Judge. You might say the game was over before it started.
And thankfully, New York's victory leads us back to (arguably) the greatest rivalry in all of sports, Yankees vs. Red Sox. Boston boasted the best record in baseball (108 wins), but the Bombers -- despite having to prove themselves again in the Wild Card Game -- were actually third-best in the MLB with 100 victories of their own.
Since when does the World Series come in the first round of the playoffs?
And thankfully, New York's victory leads us back to (arguably) the greatest rivalry in all of sports, Yankees vs. Red Sox. Boston boasted the best record in baseball (108 wins), but the Bombers -- despite having to prove themselves again in the Wild Card Game -- were actually third-best in the MLB with 100 victories of their own.
Since when does the World Series come in the first round of the playoffs?
PART I: ARE THESE THE BEST LINEUPS IN BASEBALL?
I don't think we're gonna be able to solve much, here. Aaron Boone's long lineup is led by Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and two ridiculously-good rookies, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar.
The Red Sox easily go tit-for-tat, boasting likely MVP Mookie Betts, megastar J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts. You can't really knock anyone in the group -- the Yankees are more likely to hit homers, while the Sox are more likely to get hits. Both offensive styles have proven effective.
In support, the Sox have explosive 3B Rafael Devers (21 HRs in just 450 ABs), but manager Alex Cora seems to have a thing for ex-Yankee Eduardo Nunez. Devers is a bit of a wild man in terms of plate discipline, so perhaps Cora prefers Nunez's reliable professionalism. We'll see how this situation plays out over the course of the series; it's particularly important because the bottom of Boston's order lacks New York's prolific punch.
Speaking of the bottom of the Yankees' order, well, that's where you'll find Torres (24 dingers) and Andujar (47 doubles - wait, is that number right??), as well as former cleanup hitter Gary Sanchez. McCutchen (former MVP), Aaron Hicks (27 HRs, quietly) and Luke Voit (14 bombs in 132 ABs) certainly ain't slouches, either.
I don't think there's any question that the Yankees have the longer lineup, but I'm personally taking Betts and Martinez over any individual Yankee. Pick your poison, here. Opposing pitchers hate seeing either of these lineups.
PART II: YARD "SALE" - YOU BUYING OR SELLING BOSTON'S ACE?
Along with Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale has been one of the MLB's most consistently dominant starters over the past 4-5 seasons. He's a long, lanky, left-handed strikeout machine, not all that dissimilar from the legendary "Big Unit" Randy Johnson. Sale features an upper-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, both coming from a herky-jerky, deceptive motion. The guy's an absolute nightmare.
But in 9 2/3 postseason innings, he's surrendered 13 hits and 9 earned runs. Early in his own playoff career, Kershaw also struggled mightily. Sale was supposed to be the savior last season, but in fact, he became the exact opposite -- he was one of the primary reasons for Boston's playoff demise.
Can he bounce back this year?
It will be awfully difficult with his nagging shoulder injury, internal doubts and New York's row of righties: McCutchen, Judge, Stanton, Hicks (switch), Voit, Andujar, Sanchez and Torres. This is not the ideal situation for a pitcher who tanked last postseason.
Elsewhere, David Price has a dreadful history against the Yanks. Thankfully for Red Sox Nation, Rick Porcello generally cruises past New York's power bats. Boston needs Sale and Porcello to do the heavy lifting in this series.
For the Yanks, J.A. Happ is a steady vet -- but let's not get carried away, here. People have been raving about him for almost two months, now. He's big, smooth and poised, but doesn't have blow-you-away stuff. Righties like Betts, Martinez and Bogaerts could potentially tee off.
On the bright side, Masahiro Tanaka doesn't get rattled in the playoffs. He'll finesse with similar success to Porcello.
Both teams have good arms, but no one is safe against these bats.
PART III: THE BATTLE OF THE BULLPENS IS A NO-BRAINER
The Yankees have an ELITE bullpen. The Red Sox do not. These are merely facts.
New York has four legitimate closers -- Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Zach Britton and Dellin Betances -- as well as lights-out longman Chad Green.
Boston has surefire Hall of Famer, Craig Kimbrel. That's it.
And you know what? This whole time I was thinking I'd be writing Red Sox in 5. But I can't write that in good faith. The Yankees have the longer lineup, both clubs are a little concerned about their starting pitching, and New York has a MUCH better bullpen. How can I pick the Sox? The Yankees are simply the better all-around team.
You got your upset, right here.
JOHNNY FRO'S PREDICTION: YANKEES OVER RED SOX IN 5.
NLDS Previews & Predictions: Braves' Youth vs. Dodgers' Experience & Homers Galore in Rockies-Brewers
I'm off to a good start this postseason, correctly predicting that the Rockies would upset the Cubs, and that Billy Beane's analytics would get annihilated by the Yanks. Sporting a 2-0 record, it's time for me to dissect a couple intriguing NLDS matchups...
PART I: CAN THE ROCKIES KEEP THEIR MOMENTUM ROLLING VS. YELICH'S BREW CREW?
The Rockies' highly-touted offense didn't show up as expected in the NL Wild Card Game; instead it was staff ace Kyle Freeland leading the way with 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball, while striking out six Cubs and walking just one. The young left-hander set the tone for Colorado's effective bullpen, headlined by veteran closer Wade Davis (1.1 innings, 3 Ks, 0 ER).
But no worries, Rockies fans...your bats will come alive in this series. While the Brewers boast an outstanding lineup -- featuring (likely) MVP Christian Yelich, clutch Lorenzo Cain, beast Jesus Aguilar (35 HRs, 108 RBI) and vets Ryan Braun and Mike Moustakas -- their starting pitching leaves much to be desired. There is no true ace on Craig Counsell's staff; crafty old-timer Jhoulys Chacin and grinder Chase Anderson tossed the most innings, with 192 and 158, respectively.
I actually prefer the Rockies' rotation, with Freeland and German Marquez (230 Ks in 196 innings) at the top.
But, this series isn't coming down to starting pitching, anyway. It's all about the bats and bullpens. Davis, Adam Ottavino and lumbering lefty Jake McGee carry the load for the Rocks, while Jeremy Jeffress (1.29 ERA, spotless), Corey Knebel (bad year, great September) and superstar lefty Josh Hader nail the tight ones down for the Brew Crew. The Rockies' bullpen is solid, but there's no way I'm picking against Hader and Jeffress. If these games are close, I like Milwaukee's chances.
Offensively, we all know about Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story, but do we know about their ability in the clutch? Regular season pressure isn't the same as postseason pressure. Cain and Moustakas are already proven in these spots. Braun has been around the block.
I remember Arenado, in the cleanup spot, choking time and time again in the World Baseball Classic. He didn't like the pressure. He only went 1-for-5 in the Wild Card Game, and he didn't quite look like himself. These are the little things to keep an eye on.
In the end, I expect this to be one of the highest-scoring series (per game) in the history of the National League playoffs. You can probably tell which way I'm leaning -- I'm taking Hader, Jeffress, Yelich, Cain and Aguilar. The Brewers have shown a champion's spirit throughout a tumultuous season -- specifically in their back-and-forth division battle with the Cubbies -- and I expect that spirit to shine through in the NLDS.
I just don't think the Rockies have what it takes.
JOHNNY FRO'S PICK: Brewers over Rockies in 4.
PART II: CAN THE BRAVES' MAGICAL SEASON CONTINUE AGAINST A DESPERATE DODGERS' TEAM?
Ozzie Albies is just 21 years old. Ronald Acuna is 20. Twenty years old.
And yet, these two kids are the keys to the Braves' accelerated timeline. It's been a bizarre run in Atlanta's front office -- GM Frank Wren signed Albies and Acuna before being kicked to the curb, followed by John Hart, John Coppolella (who is now completely banned from the bigs) and now Alex Anthopoulous -- but the Braves have landed on a promising core featuring Acuna, Albies, Freddie Freeman and Johan Camargo. It's been a rocky road, but these Braves are undoubtedly ahead of schedule.
But are they ready to contend with a veteran club that is thirsting for a World Series win?
Justin Turner (another season over .300) wants this bad. Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and Matt Kemp are due. Manny Machado and Brian Dozier never got anywhere with the Orioles or Twins, respectively. Yasiel Puig says it's the Dodgers' time, and -- at least as far as the National League goes -- I kind of believe him. L.A. has experienced leaders, primetime players and a proven late-game pedigree.
On the bump, I'd say the Dodgers have the advantage with Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu early in the series. Mike Foltynewicz has a good, live arm for the Bravos, but I can't say I trust Anibal Sanchez, despite a renaissance year. I think Turner, Machado, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and maybe even Puig will feast on Anibal.
I like Dave Roberts in the dugout, too. He plays for the win. He never gives games away. He's always looking for an edge, each and every inning, and he's a fiery competitor and leader.
I like these young Braves an awful lot, but it simply isn't their time.
JOHNNY FRO'S PICK: Dodgers over Braves in 4.
Hopefully I'll get to "The Rivalry" before I leave for my Honeymoon!
On the bump, I'd say the Dodgers have the advantage with Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu early in the series. Mike Foltynewicz has a good, live arm for the Bravos, but I can't say I trust Anibal Sanchez, despite a renaissance year. I think Turner, Machado, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and maybe even Puig will feast on Anibal.
I like Dave Roberts in the dugout, too. He plays for the win. He never gives games away. He's always looking for an edge, each and every inning, and he's a fiery competitor and leader.
I like these young Braves an awful lot, but it simply isn't their time.
JOHNNY FRO'S PICK: Dodgers over Braves in 4.
Hopefully I'll get to "The Rivalry" before I leave for my Honeymoon!
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
AL Wild Card Game Preview & Prediction: Old-School Power Meets New-School Analytics
The "Bronx Bombers" took that nickname to a new level this season.
With 267 home runs, Aaron Boone's ball-bashing bruisers broke the single-season, big-league team record. In his first season in pinstripes, Giancarlo Stanton led the way with 38 dingers, followed by Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar and Aaron Hicks, with 27 apiece. Judge played in just 112 games due to injury, and Didi (134) missed a number of games as well. At full strength, these Yanks could have easily cracked 270.
And yet, in spite of the accolades, they're in a make-or-break, one-game scenario. The Oakland A's have been The Little Engine That Could all year long. Big bats or big hearts...who's it gonna be?
With 267 home runs, Aaron Boone's ball-bashing bruisers broke the single-season, big-league team record. In his first season in pinstripes, Giancarlo Stanton led the way with 38 dingers, followed by Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar and Aaron Hicks, with 27 apiece. Judge played in just 112 games due to injury, and Didi (134) missed a number of games as well. At full strength, these Yanks could have easily cracked 270.
And yet, in spite of the accolades, they're in a make-or-break, one-game scenario. The Oakland A's have been The Little Engine That Could all year long. Big bats or big hearts...who's it gonna be?
PART I: BOONE TABS SEVERINO; IS HE THE RIGHT MAN FOR THE JOB?
After falling flat on his face in the 2017 American League Wild Card Game, Luis Severino is going right back out there this year. In recent weeks, veteran left-hander J.A. Happ has been generating a lot of buzz with one quality start after another, but ultimately Boone made the right choice.
Happ, an impending free agent, is a calming presence on the hill, but the separation from Severino isn't enough to mess with the kid's confidence. This time last year, Severino couldn't even make it through an inning against the upstart Twins. He recorded just a single out, while surrendering 4 hits and 3 earned runs. He can't possibly be worse this year, right?
The young flamethrower is expected to be a part of Brian Cashman's long-term plan for the club, so Boone is pushing the right button here. Besides, if needed, Boone can pass the baton from Severino to Chad Green to David Robertson to Zach Britton, and so on down the line. New York boasts a very talented bullpen.
As far as the matchups go, power-hitting outfielder Khris Davis leads the way for Bob Melvin's A's. For the fourth straight season, Davis hit EXACTLY .247. What are the odds of that? Now that batting average may not look like much, but try putting it next to 48, 43 and 42 homers the past three years, respectively. Davis has fully established himself as one of the top power players in the game.
Severino will also have to contend with veteran switch hitter Jed Lowrie (23 HRs, 99 RBI, a professional hitter), lefty slugger Matt Olson (29 and 84), Stephen Piscotty (27 and 88, in a bounce-back year) and rising all-around star Matt Chapman (24 and 68). These young A's aren't quite the Yanks, but they ain't no joke, either. Do not take them lightly.
This is a better team than Severino faced in last year's Wild Card Game, and we know how that went.
As far as the matchups go, power-hitting outfielder Khris Davis leads the way for Bob Melvin's A's. For the fourth straight season, Davis hit EXACTLY .247. What are the odds of that? Now that batting average may not look like much, but try putting it next to 48, 43 and 42 homers the past three years, respectively. Davis has fully established himself as one of the top power players in the game.
Severino will also have to contend with veteran switch hitter Jed Lowrie (23 HRs, 99 RBI, a professional hitter), lefty slugger Matt Olson (29 and 84), Stephen Piscotty (27 and 88, in a bounce-back year) and rising all-around star Matt Chapman (24 and 68). These young A's aren't quite the Yanks, but they ain't no joke, either. Do not take them lightly.
This is a better team than Severino faced in last year's Wild Card Game, and we know how that went.
PART II: ATHLETICS ARE ALL-IN ON ANALYTICS
And is anyone really surprised? This is what they do.
So Billy Beane and Melvin will roll with Liam Hendriks as their "opener" for this all-important game. It'll be a bullpen game for the A's, and Hendriks has a shiny 2.08 ERA in this role.
Here's the good: Oakland has an outstanding bullpen. With lights-out Blake Treinen at the back (38 saves with a 0.78 ERA - crazy!), experienced vets Jeuyrs Familia, Fernando Rodney and Yusmeiro Petit, as well as quality arms Lou Trivino and Ryan Buchter, Melvin can certainly patch together a quality performance.
Here's the bad: only one or two of those guys have to blowup for this whole thing to go to hell.
I mean, we're talking about Hendriks vs. Severino at the beginning of this game -- is there really a comparison there? Aren't Familia and Rodney prone to devastating blowups? Who do you really trust outside of Treinen? I'd rather have Robertson, Britton and Dellin Betances leading up to my closer in a one-game, do-or-die scenario.
In the end, these A's ain't goin' quietly. They're going to fight for every out in this one. However, Beane is plagued by one postseason disaster after another, and these Yankees proved themselves last year. They come through in the clutch.
Can we really say the same for Familia?
I'm going Yankees 5, A's 3. Enjoy what should be a great ballgame!
(If you missed yesterday's preview, I correctly predicted that the Rockies would upset the Cubs. Fro's Postseason record: 1-0.)
(If you missed yesterday's preview, I correctly predicted that the Rockies would upset the Cubs. Fro's Postseason record: 1-0.)
Tuesday, October 2, 2018
NL Wild Card Game Preview & Prediction: This Just Isn't the Cubs' Year
Not too long ago, the Chicago Cubs were cruising along in the National League Central.
Joe Maddon's club looked to be the steadiest in the NL for much of the MLB's dog days, but suddenly things changed. Balls started to bounce the wrong way. Guys stopped hitting. The bullpen couldn't hold any leads.
One shaky division championship game later, and the Cubbies have collapsed into a Wild Card showdown with the rollicking Colorado Rockies. Let's get into the particulars...
Joe Maddon's club looked to be the steadiest in the NL for much of the MLB's dog days, but suddenly things changed. Balls started to bounce the wrong way. Guys stopped hitting. The bullpen couldn't hold any leads.
One shaky division championship game later, and the Cubbies have collapsed into a Wild Card showdown with the rollicking Colorado Rockies. Let's get into the particulars...
PART I: CAN LESTER OVERCOME HIS WILD CARD DEMONS?
Back in 2014, Billy Beane went for it all. He traded his high-powered cleanup hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, for Jon Lester's impressive postseason resume. However, '14 wasn't like '16 or '17 -- when homers were leaving the yard at unprecedented rates -- and runs were hard to come by. The A's offense went in the tank. They blew a hefty division lead (sort of like this year's Cubs), which ultimately left them in a Wild Card Game against the pesky Kansas City Royals.
Of course Lester got the ball -- and it wasn't pretty.
Lester grinded out 7 1/3 innings -- it was almost like the A's were trying to justify their trade -- but he was tattooed for 8 hits and 6 earned runs. Lorenzo Cain (2 hits, 2 RBI, 2 runs scored), Eric Hosmer (3 hits and 2 walks) and company hit the ball hard throughout the evening, and Lester blew multiple leads. The A's hit for him, but he simply couldn't deliver the goods on the hill.
Now he's back on the mound for a one-game showdown against Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story and the homer-hammering Rocks. Not exactly the lineup you want to see with everything on the line. Vegas likes the Cubs; but not by as much as you'd think. At this moment, the Cubs are -134 and the Rocks are +124. Chicago isn't a heavy favorite.
As far as the matchups go, Lester isn't your typical left-hander. Normally you'd think a lefty would be in terrible shape against talented righty bats like Arenado (38 HRs, 110 RBI) Story (37 HRs, 108 RBI), DJ LeMahieu and Ian Desmond. But Lester's hard-darting cutter, inside to righties, often kills rallies by inducing double-play balls. I wouldn't say righties or lefties have a distinct advantage against Lester. It's more like neither.
But we've seen this Rockies club come up short before, and now they're finally here. This is their shot. Colorado's lineup is stacked with legit bats, so I don't expect them to whimper away quietly into the night. I see something like 5 1/3 and 4 earned runs for Lester.
PART II: KYLE FREELAND - THE GREATEST ROCKIES PITCHER OF ALL TIME?
What Kyle Freeland is doing this season is simply incredible. For a franchise whose greatest all-time pitchers are Jorge De La Rosa (4.58 lifetime ERA), Aaron Cook (4.60), Jeff Francis (4.97) and Ubaldo Jimenez (4.34), throwing 202 innings with a 2.85 ERA is nothing short of astonishing. Freeland has struck out 173 this year, and his 1.24 WHIP is awfully tiny for Coors Field.
He's only been averaging 92.4 with his fastball, but his sink -- not unlike Lester's cut -- really helps with runners on base. If you're going to be an ace striking out less than one batter per inning, you need to eliminate lead runners by inducing ground balls. Freeland never panics with runners on.
And the Cubbies will get their baserunners tonight. Daniel Murphy is an outstanding postseason hitter; Ben Zobrist is also proven under pressure, and Javier Baez is a serious NL MVP candidate. Kris Bryant has been a major disappointment, but Anthony Rizzo has mostly been himself and Jason Heyward showed a little offensive improvement this season. Freeland isn't lights out; so he'll face some busy basepaths.
This game certainly feels like an over, but it's always difficult when the pitchers have to hit. Maddon and Bud Black will have quick hooks if needed, which means pinch hitters in potential rally-killing spots. That always helps an over play in a NL game.
In the end, I don't think Lester or Freeland will cruise. The big bats will grind in this one. I see similar stat lines for both starters, which puts the game in the hands of the relievers. The Cubs have really struggled in that department, whereas Wade Davis (their own former closer) is an experienced postseason reliever who doesn't rattle under pressure. I'll take Jake McGee and Adam Ottavino in setup roles, too. The latter has K'd 112 in just 77 innings. Super impressive at Coors.
Like my title says...this just isn't the Cubs' year. I'm going Rockies 6, Cubs 4. Good luck, all!
Monday, October 1, 2018
NFL Head Coach Power Rankings, Part II: Nagy, Shanahan & Gase Represent the Creative New Wave
In Volume I of my NFL Head Coach Power Rankings, I was forced to answer an impossible question:
Who is worse...Todd Bowles or Hue Jackson?
After banging my head against the wall for a couple days, the right answer finally popped out: Jackson is the worst head coach in the league because he has a 2-33 record with the Browns.
Wait...wait...I can't believe I almost forgot!...he also has one tie. Guy is a football genius.
In actuality, when ranking two coaches who are so incredibly inept, there is no right answer. They're both wrong. Neither one should have a head coaching job in the NFL. Let's move on to some better football coaches...
20. Sean McDermott, Bills: I HATE putting this guy in my top 20. He benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman right smack in the middle of a playoff race! Not that Taylor is a world-beater, but Peterman simply isn't talented enough to be a competent NFL quarterback. That was apparent all the way back in the 2017 preseason. The kid's never been good. He's shown nothing positive.
And yet, in spite of Peterman's five-interception performance -- in one half! -- McDermott was eventually rewarded with an AFC playoff berth. In a vacuum, that type of inexplicable decision-making should NOT be rewarded. Call it the luck of the Irish, in this case.
However, on the flip side, McDermott has done a nice job with a limited overall talent pool. Yes, he cost the Bills a critical game in the middle of a playoff race, but he also coached a weak all-around team to the postseason. Going forward, I honestly expect him to fall in my rankings.
19. Bill O'Brien, Texans: Yeah, Bill's definitely on the hot seat, but overall he's done a nice job with the Texans. He's had to deal with some low-end QBs -- Brock Osweiler, Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, you get the idea -- and yet he has some playoff appearances and has (mostly) acquitted himself well. I mean, all organizations can't realistically expect to win the Super Bowl, can they? Based on talent, I've never expected any of O'Brien's teams to go very far. Can't expect miracles with average personnel.
18. Marvin Lewis, Bengals: I laughed at the Bengals organization for retaining Lewis for another go-around, but they've proven me wrong thus far. The Bengals actually look like one of the best teams in the NFL in 2018. Lewis isn't a "genius" or "guru" in any way, but he's an experienced leader and calming influence. Like I wrote about Dusty Baker and Joe Girardi in the MLB -- some guys just know how to do the job. That's a qualification in itself.
17. Jay Gruden, Redskins: He's a good football coach from a family of football coaches, but his 'Skins never go very far. This season looks a bit more promising with Alex Smith's valuable ball control, but let me see it before I believe it. I'm sure, at some point, we might be able to make an argument for Jay in the top 15.
16. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers: This kid is pretty cursed. He opened his head coaching career with Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard as his quarterbacks, so the odds were immediately stacked against him. That didn't go well, and it eventually opened the door to the trade for franchise "savior" Jimmy Garoppolo. That move started off quite well in '17, but took a devastating nosedive this year. Garoppolo is done, along with RB1 Jerick McKinnon, who never even took the field. One soul-crushing injury on top of another.
Now, Shanahan is back to Beathard. Can we really expect victories? The only thing we know for sure is that he was a superb OC for the Falcons.
15. Matt Nagy, Bears: How 'bout them 3-1 Bears?
Give this rookie head coach all the credit, as he has found ways to protect Mitchell Trubisky's confidence, while spreading touches around to Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton.
Obviously the Khalil Mack addition was a godsend on the defensive side of the ball, not to mention the productive work of Akiem Hicks (3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), Danny Trevathan (16 tackles, 2 sacks) and Eddie Jackson (10 tackles, 2 interceptions). Nagy and Mack have these youngsters believing. After Sean McVay, Nagy would have my vote for Coach of the Year. This is definitely a feel-good story.
14. Dan Quinn, Falcons: Perhaps the trickiest of all to evaluate. Obviously, things started out well with a trip to the Super Bowl. The Falcons were the best or second-best team in the NFL throughout the 2016 campaign, and they dominated a big portion of the Big Game. You could argue that Shanahan was more responsible for the Falcons' loss than Quinn.
Then came '17. Another trip to the postseason, but it wasn't nearly as convincing. The Falcons' offense sputtered without Shanahan, and the Eagles bounced them early in a tight one.
Now, speaking of tight ones, Atlanta seems to lose them all this season. Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley have been rolling offensively, but Quinn's boys are closing like Armando Benitez, as opposed to Mariano Rivera. Quinn is supposedly a defensive guru, but the performance of his personnel suggests otherwise. I still (kind of) think the Falcons are one of the best teams in the league, while Quinn is a middle-of-the-pack head coach.
13. Mike Tomlin, Steelers: Pittsburgh's been mired in controversy this season -- between Le'Veon Bell's dramatic holdout and Antonio Brown's babyish comments -- but on the whole, Tomlin's tenure has been steeped in stability. He's a Super Bowl champion head coach, and his coach/QB combo with Ben Roethlisberger is in superstar company with Brady/Belichick, Rodgers/McCarthy, Brees/Payton and Wilson/Carroll.
The old saying in the NFL goes "it starts with coach and quarterback." And these Steelers have been lucky to boast such a dynamic duo for a long time. But all good things come to an end. If this season stays messy, is this it for Tomlin?
12. Mike McCarthy, Packers: Speaking of Mr. McCarthy, well, here he is. Overall, he did a nice job transitioning from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, giving the latter plenty of time to get acclimated with the offense and marinate with the proper seasoning. Rodgers has taken it from there. Gotta give McCarthy credit for nurturing and cultivating (arguably) the best quarterback in the history of football, but Rodgers' extended plays are one-man shows. How much credit does a coach deserve for a player with individual greatness?
11. Adam Gase, Dolphins: The Dolphins aren't much of anything. They haven't been throughout Gase's relatively short tenure in Miami. And yet, they made the playoffs a couple seasons ago, and they are inexplicably off to a 3-1 start this year.
That's Gase. He maximizes the production of the little talent he has. Guys like Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson have thrived in tricky gadget plays. That's coaching. When you have a shitty quarterback (Ryan Tannehill), underachieving running back (Kenyan Drake), overrated flop (DeVante Parker) and a mediocre defense (if I'm being kind), as a head coach, you need to find creative ways to manufacture tight victories.
And that's exactly what Adam Gase does. That's the mark of an elite football coach.
(If you missed coaches 32 down to 21, here they are. Top 10 coming soon!)
Who is worse...Todd Bowles or Hue Jackson?
After banging my head against the wall for a couple days, the right answer finally popped out: Jackson is the worst head coach in the league because he has a 2-33 record with the Browns.
Wait...wait...I can't believe I almost forgot!...he also has one tie. Guy is a football genius.
In actuality, when ranking two coaches who are so incredibly inept, there is no right answer. They're both wrong. Neither one should have a head coaching job in the NFL. Let's move on to some better football coaches...
20. Sean McDermott, Bills: I HATE putting this guy in my top 20. He benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman right smack in the middle of a playoff race! Not that Taylor is a world-beater, but Peterman simply isn't talented enough to be a competent NFL quarterback. That was apparent all the way back in the 2017 preseason. The kid's never been good. He's shown nothing positive.
And yet, in spite of Peterman's five-interception performance -- in one half! -- McDermott was eventually rewarded with an AFC playoff berth. In a vacuum, that type of inexplicable decision-making should NOT be rewarded. Call it the luck of the Irish, in this case.
However, on the flip side, McDermott has done a nice job with a limited overall talent pool. Yes, he cost the Bills a critical game in the middle of a playoff race, but he also coached a weak all-around team to the postseason. Going forward, I honestly expect him to fall in my rankings.
19. Bill O'Brien, Texans: Yeah, Bill's definitely on the hot seat, but overall he's done a nice job with the Texans. He's had to deal with some low-end QBs -- Brock Osweiler, Brian Hoyer, T.J. Yates, you get the idea -- and yet he has some playoff appearances and has (mostly) acquitted himself well. I mean, all organizations can't realistically expect to win the Super Bowl, can they? Based on talent, I've never expected any of O'Brien's teams to go very far. Can't expect miracles with average personnel.
18. Marvin Lewis, Bengals: I laughed at the Bengals organization for retaining Lewis for another go-around, but they've proven me wrong thus far. The Bengals actually look like one of the best teams in the NFL in 2018. Lewis isn't a "genius" or "guru" in any way, but he's an experienced leader and calming influence. Like I wrote about Dusty Baker and Joe Girardi in the MLB -- some guys just know how to do the job. That's a qualification in itself.
17. Jay Gruden, Redskins: He's a good football coach from a family of football coaches, but his 'Skins never go very far. This season looks a bit more promising with Alex Smith's valuable ball control, but let me see it before I believe it. I'm sure, at some point, we might be able to make an argument for Jay in the top 15.
16. Kyle Shanahan, 49ers: This kid is pretty cursed. He opened his head coaching career with Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard as his quarterbacks, so the odds were immediately stacked against him. That didn't go well, and it eventually opened the door to the trade for franchise "savior" Jimmy Garoppolo. That move started off quite well in '17, but took a devastating nosedive this year. Garoppolo is done, along with RB1 Jerick McKinnon, who never even took the field. One soul-crushing injury on top of another.
Now, Shanahan is back to Beathard. Can we really expect victories? The only thing we know for sure is that he was a superb OC for the Falcons.
15. Matt Nagy, Bears: How 'bout them 3-1 Bears?
Give this rookie head coach all the credit, as he has found ways to protect Mitchell Trubisky's confidence, while spreading touches around to Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton.
Obviously the Khalil Mack addition was a godsend on the defensive side of the ball, not to mention the productive work of Akiem Hicks (3 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), Danny Trevathan (16 tackles, 2 sacks) and Eddie Jackson (10 tackles, 2 interceptions). Nagy and Mack have these youngsters believing. After Sean McVay, Nagy would have my vote for Coach of the Year. This is definitely a feel-good story.
14. Dan Quinn, Falcons: Perhaps the trickiest of all to evaluate. Obviously, things started out well with a trip to the Super Bowl. The Falcons were the best or second-best team in the NFL throughout the 2016 campaign, and they dominated a big portion of the Big Game. You could argue that Shanahan was more responsible for the Falcons' loss than Quinn.
Then came '17. Another trip to the postseason, but it wasn't nearly as convincing. The Falcons' offense sputtered without Shanahan, and the Eagles bounced them early in a tight one.
Now, speaking of tight ones, Atlanta seems to lose them all this season. Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley have been rolling offensively, but Quinn's boys are closing like Armando Benitez, as opposed to Mariano Rivera. Quinn is supposedly a defensive guru, but the performance of his personnel suggests otherwise. I still (kind of) think the Falcons are one of the best teams in the league, while Quinn is a middle-of-the-pack head coach.
13. Mike Tomlin, Steelers: Pittsburgh's been mired in controversy this season -- between Le'Veon Bell's dramatic holdout and Antonio Brown's babyish comments -- but on the whole, Tomlin's tenure has been steeped in stability. He's a Super Bowl champion head coach, and his coach/QB combo with Ben Roethlisberger is in superstar company with Brady/Belichick, Rodgers/McCarthy, Brees/Payton and Wilson/Carroll.
The old saying in the NFL goes "it starts with coach and quarterback." And these Steelers have been lucky to boast such a dynamic duo for a long time. But all good things come to an end. If this season stays messy, is this it for Tomlin?
12. Mike McCarthy, Packers: Speaking of Mr. McCarthy, well, here he is. Overall, he did a nice job transitioning from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers, giving the latter plenty of time to get acclimated with the offense and marinate with the proper seasoning. Rodgers has taken it from there. Gotta give McCarthy credit for nurturing and cultivating (arguably) the best quarterback in the history of football, but Rodgers' extended plays are one-man shows. How much credit does a coach deserve for a player with individual greatness?
11. Adam Gase, Dolphins: The Dolphins aren't much of anything. They haven't been throughout Gase's relatively short tenure in Miami. And yet, they made the playoffs a couple seasons ago, and they are inexplicably off to a 3-1 start this year.
That's Gase. He maximizes the production of the little talent he has. Guys like Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson have thrived in tricky gadget plays. That's coaching. When you have a shitty quarterback (Ryan Tannehill), underachieving running back (Kenyan Drake), overrated flop (DeVante Parker) and a mediocre defense (if I'm being kind), as a head coach, you need to find creative ways to manufacture tight victories.
And that's exactly what Adam Gase does. That's the mark of an elite football coach.
(If you missed coaches 32 down to 21, here they are. Top 10 coming soon!)
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