A quick recap before we get started:
Week 1: 9-7 (3-0 in best bets: Eagles, Dolphins and Redskins)
Week 2: 8-8 (0-3 in best bets: Steelers, Panthers and Broncos)
Week 3: 7-9 (2-1 in best bets: Redskins, Steelers and Chargers)
Overall: 24-24 (5-4 in best bets) - Analysis will be short this week!
JOHNNY FRO'S WEEK 4 PICKS
Los Angeles Rams over Minnesota Vikings, 27-24 (Vikings cover +7)
(EDITOR'S NOTE: The following paragraph was written on Wednesday, September 27.)
The Vikings can't possibly be as bad as last week, but I've also learned to trust Sean McVay's unstoppable schemes. I'm confident the Vikes won't get blown out -- especially considering the Rams' depleted secondary -- but is Kirk Cousins really a guy who wins big games? Does he pull out the close ones that count, historically? I gotta go with McVay, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley down the stretch, here.
New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins, 38-17 (Patriots cover -6.5) BEST BET
The Patriots certainly haven't looked like themselves, but these underwhelming Dolphins aren't going 4-0 when Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are in dire need of a win. I like Adam Gase, and I do think the Dolphins can ultimately hang on to a playoff spot, but the Pats aren't just going to roll over and play dead, are they? I gotta think Rob Gronkowski and Chris Hogan have big weeks, this week.
Houston Texans over Indianapolis Colts, 34-17 (Texans cover +1.5) BEST BET
I don't see the Texans going 0-4 against this team. Andrew Luck is grinding it out at less than 100 percent, with zero running game and a thin receiving corps. The Texans have real talent with Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and even JJ Watt finally looked healthy last week in a monster performance against the Giants. The Texans will get off the schneid this week.
Atlanta Falcons over Cincinnati Bengals, 31-24 (Falcons cover -4)
Both teams have played pretty solid ball thus far, though the Falcons aren't pulling out the close ones. With that in mind, they'll need to win by a touchdown or more to be secure. Their offense has been clicking since the emergence of rookie stud Calvin Ridley, so I expect continued production this week. And hey, the Marvin Lewis/Andy Dalton Bengals are who we think they are -- they'll hover around 8-8 by year's end.
Green Bay Packers over Buffalo Bills, 30-17 (Packers cover -10)
Reports indicate Aaron Rodgers is getting closer to full health, and this betting line is screaming TRAP. The Bills shocked the world and decimated survivor pools by shellacking the heavily-favored Vikings last week, and yet Buffalo is again a huge dog. Vegas wants you to take the Bills getting the points. You probably shouldn't do that.
Detroit Lions over Dallas Cowboys, 24-14 (Lions cover +3)
Looks like Detroit is starting to put some momentum together. Matt Patricia's defense suffocated Brady and the Pats, and Jim Bob Cooter's offense was pleasantly surprised by a 100+ rushing game from impressive rookie Kerryon Johnson. With Johnson, Matt Stafford, Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate and Marvin Jones, the Lions have a sneaky number of explosive offensive players. Can't say the same for the anemic Cowboys. This should be a statement game for Detroit.
Jacksonville Jaguars over New York Jets, 20-3 (Jaguars cover -7.5)
The Jets are too scared to score against the vaunted Jags D. Todd Bowles and Jeremy Bates have done an absolutely horrific job coaching rookie QB Sam Darnold, and that trend will continue this week. Doug Marrone's boys are pissed after an ugly loss to the division-rival Titans, and they smell blood in the water from the reeling Jets. Franchise RB Leonard Fournette should return for the Jags, as well.
Tampa Bay Bucs over Chicago Bears, 20-17 (Bucs cover +3)
Ryan Fitzpatrick's playing for his job this week, and that isn't necessarily a good thing. The last time he was in a make-or-break game in his career, as a Jet, he crumbled in the playoff-or-bust finale against an inferior Bills team. I don't necessarily trust him in spots like these, but Mitchell Trubisky is pretty horrendous. I don't think either team will perform the way they want to offensively, but "FitzMagic" will do just enough to hold off Jameis Winston for another week.
Tennessee Titans over Philadelphia Eagles, 20-17 (Titans cover +3.5) BEST BET
Everybody always sleeps on the Titans, and I can see why -- their games can literally put you to sleep. Marcus Mariota's back under center this week, but what's the difference? They never really score or move the ball, anyway. And yet, they are good at playing ugly and covering spreads. The Eagles are obviously the much sexier pick here, and that's part of the reason the Titans will cover. Carson Wentz will continue to shake off the rust, but he's not quite there yet. If Alshon Jeffery suits up, he'll have similar rust issues. Mike Vrabel's scrappy D will grind out this tight win.
THE REST OF JOHNNY FRO'S PICKS
Seahawks over Cardinals, 24-17 (Seahawks cover -3.5): Russell Wilson needs this win, and Josh Rosen will need some seasoning.
Browns over Raiders, 27-20 (Browns cover +2.5): Baker Mayfield good. Raiders bad.
Chargers over 49ers, 34-20 (Chargers cover -10.5)
Saints over Giants, 30-28 (Giants cover +3): Giants could surprise a lot of people this week. Odell Beckham, Jr. still hasn't reached paydirt.
Steelers over Ravens, 27-21 (Steelers cover -3)
Chiefs over Broncos, 31-20 (Chiefs cover -5): The Broncos' 2-0 start was a fluke. The Chiefs' 3-0 start is not.
Good luck, and get that $$$!!!
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