Joe Maddon's club looked to be the steadiest in the NL for much of the MLB's dog days, but suddenly things changed. Balls started to bounce the wrong way. Guys stopped hitting. The bullpen couldn't hold any leads.
One shaky division championship game later, and the Cubbies have collapsed into a Wild Card showdown with the rollicking Colorado Rockies. Let's get into the particulars...
PART I: CAN LESTER OVERCOME HIS WILD CARD DEMONS?
Back in 2014, Billy Beane went for it all. He traded his high-powered cleanup hitter, Yoenis Cespedes, for Jon Lester's impressive postseason resume. However, '14 wasn't like '16 or '17 -- when homers were leaving the yard at unprecedented rates -- and runs were hard to come by. The A's offense went in the tank. They blew a hefty division lead (sort of like this year's Cubs), which ultimately left them in a Wild Card Game against the pesky Kansas City Royals.
Of course Lester got the ball -- and it wasn't pretty.
Lester grinded out 7 1/3 innings -- it was almost like the A's were trying to justify their trade -- but he was tattooed for 8 hits and 6 earned runs. Lorenzo Cain (2 hits, 2 RBI, 2 runs scored), Eric Hosmer (3 hits and 2 walks) and company hit the ball hard throughout the evening, and Lester blew multiple leads. The A's hit for him, but he simply couldn't deliver the goods on the hill.
Now he's back on the mound for a one-game showdown against Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story and the homer-hammering Rocks. Not exactly the lineup you want to see with everything on the line. Vegas likes the Cubs; but not by as much as you'd think. At this moment, the Cubs are -134 and the Rocks are +124. Chicago isn't a heavy favorite.
As far as the matchups go, Lester isn't your typical left-hander. Normally you'd think a lefty would be in terrible shape against talented righty bats like Arenado (38 HRs, 110 RBI) Story (37 HRs, 108 RBI), DJ LeMahieu and Ian Desmond. But Lester's hard-darting cutter, inside to righties, often kills rallies by inducing double-play balls. I wouldn't say righties or lefties have a distinct advantage against Lester. It's more like neither.
But we've seen this Rockies club come up short before, and now they're finally here. This is their shot. Colorado's lineup is stacked with legit bats, so I don't expect them to whimper away quietly into the night. I see something like 5 1/3 and 4 earned runs for Lester.
PART II: KYLE FREELAND - THE GREATEST ROCKIES PITCHER OF ALL TIME?
What Kyle Freeland is doing this season is simply incredible. For a franchise whose greatest all-time pitchers are Jorge De La Rosa (4.58 lifetime ERA), Aaron Cook (4.60), Jeff Francis (4.97) and Ubaldo Jimenez (4.34), throwing 202 innings with a 2.85 ERA is nothing short of astonishing. Freeland has struck out 173 this year, and his 1.24 WHIP is awfully tiny for Coors Field.
He's only been averaging 92.4 with his fastball, but his sink -- not unlike Lester's cut -- really helps with runners on base. If you're going to be an ace striking out less than one batter per inning, you need to eliminate lead runners by inducing ground balls. Freeland never panics with runners on.
And the Cubbies will get their baserunners tonight. Daniel Murphy is an outstanding postseason hitter; Ben Zobrist is also proven under pressure, and Javier Baez is a serious NL MVP candidate. Kris Bryant has been a major disappointment, but Anthony Rizzo has mostly been himself and Jason Heyward showed a little offensive improvement this season. Freeland isn't lights out; so he'll face some busy basepaths.
This game certainly feels like an over, but it's always difficult when the pitchers have to hit. Maddon and Bud Black will have quick hooks if needed, which means pinch hitters in potential rally-killing spots. That always helps an over play in a NL game.
In the end, I don't think Lester or Freeland will cruise. The big bats will grind in this one. I see similar stat lines for both starters, which puts the game in the hands of the relievers. The Cubs have really struggled in that department, whereas Wade Davis (their own former closer) is an experienced postseason reliever who doesn't rattle under pressure. I'll take Jake McGee and Adam Ottavino in setup roles, too. The latter has K'd 112 in just 77 innings. Super impressive at Coors.
Like my title says...this just isn't the Cubs' year. I'm going Rockies 6, Cubs 4. Good luck, all!
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