Thursday, October 4, 2018

ALDS Preview & Prediction: "The Rivalry" is Back, and One Elite Team is Going Down in Flames

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Billy Beane's analytics-driven "opener" strategy didn't work out. In the American League Wild Card Game, Oakland's opener Liam Hendriks was greeted rudely by an Andrew McCutchen walk and a vicious home run off the bat of Aaron Judge. You might say the game was over before it started.

And thankfully, New York's victory leads us back to (arguably) the greatest rivalry in all of sports, Yankees vs. Red Sox. Boston boasted the best record in baseball (108 wins), but the Bombers -- despite having to prove themselves again in the Wild Card Game -- were actually third-best in the MLB with 100 victories of their own.

Since when does the World Series come in the first round of the playoffs?

PART I: ARE THESE THE BEST LINEUPS IN BASEBALL?

I don't think we're gonna be able to solve much, here. Aaron Boone's long lineup is led by Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and two ridiculously-good rookies, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar

The Red Sox easily go tit-for-tat, boasting likely MVP Mookie Betts, megastar J.D. Martinez, Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts. You can't really knock anyone in the group -- the Yankees are more likely to hit homers, while the Sox are more likely to get hits. Both offensive styles have proven effective. 

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In support, the Sox have explosive 3B Rafael Devers (21 HRs in just 450 ABs), but manager Alex Cora seems to have a thing for ex-Yankee Eduardo Nunez. Devers is a bit of a wild man in terms of plate discipline, so perhaps Cora prefers Nunez's reliable professionalism. We'll see how this situation plays out over the course of the series; it's particularly important because the bottom of Boston's order lacks New York's prolific punch. 

Speaking of the bottom of the Yankees' order, well, that's where you'll find Torres (24 dingers) and Andujar (47 doubles - wait, is that number right??), as well as former cleanup hitter Gary Sanchez. McCutchen (former MVP), Aaron Hicks (27 HRs, quietly) and Luke Voit (14 bombs in 132 ABs) certainly ain't slouches, either. 

I don't think there's any question that the Yankees have the longer lineup, but I'm personally taking Betts and Martinez over any individual Yankee. Pick your poison, here. Opposing pitchers hate seeing either of these lineups. 

PART II: YARD "SALE" - YOU BUYING OR SELLING BOSTON'S ACE?

Along with Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom and Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale has been one of the MLB's most consistently dominant starters over the past 4-5 seasons. He's a long, lanky, left-handed strikeout machine, not all that dissimilar from the legendary "Big Unit" Randy Johnson. Sale features an upper-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, both coming from a herky-jerky, deceptive motion. The guy's an absolute nightmare. 

But in 9 2/3 postseason innings, he's surrendered 13 hits and 9 earned runs. Early in his own playoff career, Kershaw also struggled mightily. Sale was supposed to be the savior last season, but in fact, he became the exact opposite -- he was one of the primary reasons for Boston's playoff demise. 

Can he bounce back this year?

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It will be awfully difficult with his nagging shoulder injury, internal doubts and New York's row of righties: McCutchen, Judge, Stanton, Hicks (switch), Voit, Andujar, Sanchez and Torres. This is not the ideal situation for a pitcher who tanked last postseason. 

Elsewhere, David Price has a dreadful history against the Yanks. Thankfully for Red Sox Nation, Rick Porcello generally cruises past New York's power bats. Boston needs Sale and Porcello to do the heavy lifting in this series. 

For the Yanks, J.A. Happ is a steady vet -- but let's not get carried away, here. People have been raving about him for almost two months, now. He's big, smooth and poised, but doesn't have blow-you-away stuff. Righties like Betts, Martinez and Bogaerts could potentially tee off. 

On the bright side, Masahiro Tanaka doesn't get rattled in the playoffs. He'll finesse with similar success to Porcello. 

Both teams have good arms, but no one is safe against these bats. 

PART III: THE BATTLE OF THE BULLPENS IS A NO-BRAINER

The Yankees have an ELITE bullpen. The Red Sox do not. These are merely facts. 

New York has four legitimate closers -- Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Zach Britton and Dellin Betances -- as well as lights-out longman Chad Green

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Boston has surefire Hall of Famer, Craig Kimbrel. That's it. 

And you know what? This whole time I was thinking I'd be writing Red Sox in 5. But I can't write that in good faith. The Yankees have the longer lineup, both clubs are a little concerned about their starting pitching, and New York has a MUCH better bullpen. How can I pick the Sox? The Yankees are simply the better all-around team. 

You got your upset, right here. 

JOHNNY FRO'S PREDICTION: YANKEES OVER RED SOX IN 5. 

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