Wednesday, October 3, 2018

AL Wild Card Game Preview & Prediction: Old-School Power Meets New-School Analytics

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The "Bronx Bombers" took that nickname to a new level this season.

With 267 home runs, Aaron Boone's ball-bashing bruisers broke the single-season, big-league team record. In his first season in pinstripes, Giancarlo Stanton led the way with 38 dingers, followed by Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar and Aaron Hicks, with 27 apiece. Judge played in just 112 games due to injury, and Didi (134) missed a number of games as well. At full strength, these Yanks could have easily cracked 270.

And yet, in spite of the accolades, they're in a make-or-break, one-game scenario. The Oakland A's have been The Little Engine That Could all year long. Big bats or big hearts...who's it gonna be?

PART I: BOONE TABS SEVERINO; IS HE THE RIGHT MAN FOR THE JOB?

After falling flat on his face in the 2017 American League Wild Card Game, Luis Severino is going right back out there this year. In recent weeks, veteran left-hander J.A. Happ has been generating a lot of buzz with one quality start after another, but ultimately Boone made the right choice. 

Happ, an impending free agent, is a calming presence on the hill, but the separation from Severino isn't enough to mess with the kid's confidence. This time last year, Severino couldn't even make it through an inning against the upstart Twins. He recorded just a single out, while surrendering 4 hits and 3 earned runs. He can't possibly be worse this year, right?

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The young flamethrower is expected to be a part of Brian Cashman's long-term plan for the club, so Boone is pushing the right button here. Besides, if needed, Boone can pass the baton from Severino to Chad Green to David Robertson to Zach Britton, and so on down the line. New York boasts a very talented bullpen.

As far as the matchups go, power-hitting outfielder Khris Davis leads the way for Bob Melvin's A's. For the fourth straight season, Davis hit EXACTLY .247. What are the odds of that? Now that batting average may not look like much, but try putting it next to 48, 43 and 42 homers the past three years, respectively. Davis has fully established himself as one of the top power players in the game.

Severino will also have to contend with veteran switch hitter Jed Lowrie (23 HRs, 99 RBI, a professional hitter), lefty slugger Matt Olson (29 and 84), Stephen Piscotty (27 and 88, in a bounce-back year) and rising all-around star Matt Chapman (24 and 68). These young A's aren't quite the Yanks, but they ain't no joke, either. Do not take them lightly.

This is a better team than Severino faced in last year's Wild Card Game, and we know how that went.

PART II: ATHLETICS ARE ALL-IN ON ANALYTICS

And is anyone really surprised? This is what they do. 

So Billy Beane and Melvin will roll with Liam Hendriks as their "opener" for this all-important game. It'll be a bullpen game for the A's, and Hendriks has a shiny 2.08 ERA in this role. 

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Here's the good: Oakland has an outstanding bullpen. With lights-out Blake Treinen at the back (38 saves with a 0.78 ERA - crazy!), experienced vets Jeuyrs Familia, Fernando Rodney and Yusmeiro Petit, as well as quality arms Lou Trivino and Ryan Buchter, Melvin can certainly patch together a quality performance. 

Here's the bad: only one or two of those guys have to blowup for this whole thing to go to hell. 

I mean, we're talking about Hendriks vs. Severino at the beginning of this game -- is there really a comparison there? Aren't Familia and Rodney prone to devastating blowups? Who do you really trust outside of Treinen? I'd rather have Robertson, Britton and Dellin Betances leading up to my closer in a one-game, do-or-die scenario. 

In the end, these A's ain't goin' quietly. They're going to fight for every out in this one. However, Beane is plagued by one postseason disaster after another, and these Yankees proved themselves last year. They come through in the clutch. 

Can we really say the same for Familia?

I'm going Yankees 5, A's 3. Enjoy what should be a great ballgame!

(If you missed yesterday's preview, I correctly predicted that the Rockies would upset the Cubs. Fro's Postseason record: 1-0.)

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