Monday, August 13, 2018

How the Analytics Movement Has Stripped the MLB of Its Best Managers

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Dusty Baker has 1,863 wins as a major league manager.

One thousand, eight hundred and sixty-three.

He was 125 games over .500 with the San Francisco Giants. Eight-hundred forty wins with one club. In just two seasons, he was 60 games over .500 with the Washington Nationals. The Cincinnati Reds have been a laughingstock in recent years; when Dusty was there, they were 46 games over .500.

I'm well aware of the knocks on Dusty's managerial style -- stuck in his old-school ways, doesn't make many adjustments, struggles with match-up based decisions in the playoffs -- but the guy can flat out manage a clubhouse. His teams win. His players like him; and maybe that's just as important as making informed strategy decisions?

The Nationals fell into the honey pot of analytics. Don't get me wrong -- I'm not one of those old-school guys who dismisses useful strategies rooted in mathematics and analytics, but I do believe in the power of a manager who simply knows how to do his job. It takes a special person to be a successful big league skipper; especially over the span of decades. Things change. The game evolves. When Dusty's in the dugout, he keeps on winning.

The Nationals heard the buzz around the league. We want young managers. We want collaborators. In other words...we want an unpolished guy who will do whatever the front office tells him to do. We want a patsy. We want our analytics guys in the front office to dictate strategy on the field.

How's that workin' out for ya, Washington?

At just 60-58 this season, the Nats trail both the Braves and Phillies in the NL East. Last year the Nats finished 25 games ahead of the Braves and 31 ahead of the Phils. Dusty Baker ran the ship. The ship sailed smoothly, and the Nationals crushed their competition.

Dave Martinez is new to the job. His clubhouse has been a disaster. It feels like his players don't trust him. They don't think he knows what he's doing. Is he a deer in headlights, or is GM Mike Rizzo sinking the ship?

Who knows? It doesn't really matter. Dusty's gone and things have gotten worse. Those are the facts.

The same thing happened in the Bronx, with the head-scratching transition from Joe Girardi to Aaron Boone.

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Girardi had consistently been one of the best managers in the MLB; I'm not talking about top half, I'm talking top five. Girardi was an ELITE manager -- squeezing out one tight win after another and maximizing win totals for some of Brian Cashman's weaker rosters. In years projected to be "down" for the Yanks, Girardi always exceeded expectations. He pays attention to detail. He has a natural feel for match-up based decisions. Some managers detract; Girardi maximizes.

Now, on the whole, the current Yanks have had a nice season. But the Red Sox are running away with the AL East. They are the stars of the division, and I think after last year's fantastic postseason run, people were expecting more from these Yankees.

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I mean, think about some of the ridiculous mistakes we have seen this season. Boone forgot to warm guys up before making a pitching change the following inning. Gabe Kapler did one better -- he actually walked onto the field to make a change with no one up in the pen! The freakin' Mets batted out of order because of Mickey Callaway!!

These blunders are lower than low. These young managers aren't even doing the bare minimum. They are screwing up moves that are second nature to vets like Baker and Girardi.

You can't just say you want to be a major league manager because you're a team guy. Because you're a collaborator. That's not the job. You need to have full command of the technical nuances. You need to master the mechanics.

What happened to just caring about WINS? Dusty Baker wins. Joe Girardi wins.

These analytic patsies can't even fill out a lineup card. Give me a break.

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