Thursday, October 4, 2018

NLDS Previews & Predictions: Braves' Youth vs. Dodgers' Experience & Homers Galore in Rockies-Brewers

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I'm off to a good start this postseason, correctly predicting that the Rockies would upset the Cubs, and that Billy Beane's analytics would get annihilated by the Yanks. Sporting a 2-0 record, it's time for me to dissect a couple intriguing NLDS matchups...

PART I: CAN THE ROCKIES KEEP THEIR MOMENTUM ROLLING VS. YELICH'S BREW CREW?

The Rockies' highly-touted offense didn't show up as expected in the NL Wild Card Game; instead it was staff ace Kyle Freeland leading the way with 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball, while striking out six Cubs and walking just one. The young left-hander set the tone for Colorado's effective bullpen, headlined by veteran closer Wade Davis (1.1 innings, 3 Ks, 0 ER). 

But no worries, Rockies fans...your bats will come alive in this series. While the Brewers boast an outstanding lineup -- featuring (likely) MVP Christian Yelich, clutch Lorenzo Cain, beast Jesus Aguilar (35 HRs, 108 RBI) and vets Ryan Braun and Mike Moustakas -- their starting pitching leaves much to be desired. There is no true ace on Craig Counsell's staff; crafty old-timer Jhoulys Chacin and grinder Chase Anderson tossed the most innings, with 192 and 158, respectively. 

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I actually prefer the Rockies' rotation, with Freeland and German Marquez (230 Ks in 196 innings) at the top. 

But, this series isn't coming down to starting pitching, anyway. It's all about the bats and bullpens. Davis, Adam Ottavino and lumbering lefty Jake McGee carry the load for the Rocks, while Jeremy Jeffress (1.29 ERA, spotless), Corey Knebel (bad year, great September) and superstar lefty Josh Hader nail the tight ones down for the Brew Crew. The Rockies' bullpen is solid, but there's no way I'm picking against Hader and Jeffress. If these games are close, I like Milwaukee's chances.  

Offensively, we all know about Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story, but do we know about their ability in the clutch? Regular season pressure isn't the same as postseason pressure. Cain and Moustakas are already proven in these spots. Braun has been around the block. 

I remember Arenado, in the cleanup spot, choking time and time again in the World Baseball Classic. He didn't like the pressure. He only went 1-for-5 in the Wild Card Game, and he didn't quite look like himself. These are the little things to keep an eye on. 

In the end, I expect this to be one of the highest-scoring series (per game) in the history of the National League playoffs. You can probably tell which way I'm leaning -- I'm taking Hader, Jeffress, Yelich, Cain and Aguilar. The Brewers have shown a champion's spirit throughout a tumultuous season -- specifically in their back-and-forth division battle with the Cubbies -- and I expect that spirit to shine through in the NLDS. 

I just don't think the Rockies have what it takes. 

JOHNNY FRO'S PICK: Brewers over Rockies in 4. 

PART II: CAN THE BRAVES' MAGICAL SEASON CONTINUE AGAINST A DESPERATE DODGERS' TEAM?

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Ozzie Albies is just 21 years old. Ronald Acuna is 20. Twenty years old.  

And yet, these two kids are the keys to the Braves' accelerated timeline. It's been a bizarre run in Atlanta's front office -- GM Frank Wren signed Albies and Acuna before being kicked to the curb, followed by John Hart, John Coppolella (who is now completely banned from the bigs) and now Alex Anthopoulous -- but the Braves have landed on a promising core featuring Acuna, Albies, Freddie Freeman and Johan Camargo. It's been a rocky road, but these Braves are undoubtedly ahead of schedule. 

But are they ready to contend with a veteran club that is thirsting for a World Series win?

Justin Turner (another season over .300) wants this bad. Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen and Matt Kemp are due. Manny Machado and Brian Dozier never got anywhere with the Orioles or Twins, respectively. Yasiel Puig says it's the Dodgers' time, and -- at least as far as the National League goes -- I kind of believe him. L.A. has experienced leaders, primetime players and a proven late-game pedigree.

On the bump, I'd say the Dodgers have the advantage with Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu early in the series. Mike Foltynewicz has a good, live arm for the Bravos, but I can't say I trust Anibal Sanchez, despite a renaissance year. I think Turner, Machado, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and maybe even Puig will feast on Anibal.

I like Dave Roberts in the dugout, too. He plays for the win. He never gives games away. He's always looking for an edge, each and every inning, and he's a fiery competitor and leader.

I like these young Braves an awful lot, but it simply isn't their time.

JOHNNY FRO'S PICK: Dodgers over Braves in 4. 

Hopefully I'll get to "The Rivalry" before I leave for my Honeymoon!

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