After an insanely busy few weeks -- I got married! -- it's back to business here at John Frascella Sports.
NFL Week 1 was highlighted by a stunning Bucs victory over Drew Brees and the Saints, the Jets' domination of Matt Patricia's Lions, Aaron Rodgers' jaw-dropping heroics against the Bears and an utterly bizarre tie between the Steelers and same ol' Browns.
Let's see what Week 2 has in store for us -- here are my picks, comin' in hot:
Washington Redskins over Indianapolis Colts, 27-24 (Colts cover +5.5)
Alex Smith automatically makes a team respectable. The Redskins looked (mostly) sharp in their opener, cruising to an easy victory over shaky Sam Bradford and the Cardinals.
New head coach Frank Reich brings the same respectability to the Colts, so I expect this one to be a nip-and-tuck type of game. Andrew Luck's boys need a win after falling short against the Bengals in Week 1, so we can be sure they won't go quietly in Washington. This game will likely come down to the final two or three minutes, when I expect Smith to set up the Skins for a winning field goal from Dustin Hopkins.
The Redskins will certainly be considered a surprise team at 2-0.
Atlanta Falcons over Carolina Panthers, 23-20 (Panthers cover +5.5)
Maybe the Falcons just aren't good without Kyle Shanahan. We have to at least consider the possibility, right?
After a fantastic season that culminated in a devastating Super Bowl collapse, Atlanta simply didn't look the same in '17. Shanahan departed to lead the rebuilding 49ers, and Matt Ryan's offense sputtered throughout a disappointing campaign. These Falcons had plenty of opportunities to steal a Week 1 victory away from the defending-champion Eagles, but again they struggled mightily in the redzone. That should continue this week, but Matt Bryant could be the difference in a hotly-contested division battle.
The Falcons need this win, and both clubs look about right at 1-1.
Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings, 30-27 (Packers cover pick 'em)
Let's take a shot on this one!
83% of the public is on the Vikings at this point, and we don't know if Aaron Rodgers is going to play. Here's what I think: Rodgers suits up and the Vikings D isn't quite ready mentally. Back-and-forth the Packers will go with Kirk Cousins slinging it to Stefon Diggs on his end, and Green Bay will pull out another tight victory down the stretch. This pick is definitely against the grain.
San Diego Chargers over Buffalo Bills, 27-20 (Bills cover +7.5)
With Nathan Peterman under center, the Bills were clearly the worst team in the NFL. But rookie Josh Allen gives Sean McDermott's squad a different look. Allen isn't ready to dominate a pro game, and the Bills won't be going on any type of winning streak, but Buffalo will be more competitive with its rook taking the snaps. Allen is a better all-around athlete than most realize, and we all know about his well-documented arm strength.
The Chargers need this win -- but they are also the Chargers. Seemed like everyone was picking them to win the AFC West this season, but things never quite work out for Philip Rivers' boys. I think Rivers is a tremendous, future Hall of Fame quarterback, but his team doesn't deliver when you think it will. They'll get this win because of their advantage in overall talent, but it won't be convincing. The unsexy Bills will cover the spread...barely.
Tennessee Titans over Houston Texans, 28-27 (Titans cover +3)
A lot of these games have similar betting storylines -- the Titans looked pretty terrible in Week 1, so the public is running and hiding from them now. It's 82% on Houston at this point. Meanwhile, the Texans were a preseason darling, a la the Chargers, Browns and 49ers, all of whom failed to win their openers.
Now, the average Joe football fan is thinking, there's no way the Texans are going 0-2 by losing to the shitty Titans -- not with Deshaun Watson running the show! And therein lies the trap. It just seems so easy to side with Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and JJ Watt...doesn't it? The Titans were sloppy and brutal to watch throughout the '17 season, while the Texans brought occasional excitement with some big names and explosive plays. The Texans are clearly the sexy pick here.
Unfortunately, the sexy pick is usually the wrong pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers over Kansas City Chiefs, 34-20 (Steelers cover -5.5)
Here we go again...I probably don't have to bother explaining myself. Everyone is gushing over Pat Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and the Chiefs this week. On the flip side, the Steelers looked extra shaky against the Browns, and the Le'Veon Bell saga rages on. The Chiefs seem to have it all together. The Steelers appear to be in complete disarray.
That's when you apply reverse logic -- take Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger will likely light up KC's shoddy secondary, and Mahomes will come back down to earth against Pittsburgh's defensive grinders. This result seems pretty clear to me.
New York Jets over Miami Dolphins, 30-17 (Jets cover -2.5)
We're for real, baby -- I'm telling you!
My Jets DEMOLISHED Patricia's unprepared and unhappy Lions. We EMBARRASSED them. It was so much fun.
The upstart Jets can sustain success for a number of reasons: (1) Sam Darnold's poise and maturity are winning, veteran qualities in the body and mind of a 21-year old kid; (2) Their secondary, highlighted by CB Trumaine Johnson and trash-talking SS Jamal Adams, is easily one of the best in the NFL (I also think CB2 Morris Claiborne is underrated at this stage in his career); (3) Isaiah Crowell is their most effective back since Thomas Jones and (4) They displayed dramatic improvements in special teams across the board in Week 1.
The point is...the Jets can potentially sustain success because they aren't relying on one aspect of their game. It was only one game, but New York showed promise in every facet of football.
On the flip side, the Dolphins don't scare me. On the whole, I view them as a potential surprise team for the 2018 season because no one was talking about them heading into the year. Adam Gase is a high-quality head coach and Ryan Tannehill is back under center. We're not talking about a Super Bowl contender, here, but we are talking about a serious playoff contender in a very weak conference. I mean, the Bills and Titans made the playoffs last year.
But again, they don't scare me. My Jets gained some early momentum, real fast. There seems to be something special brewing. Cheers to that continuing in Week 2!
Philadelphia Eagles over Tampa Bay Bucs, 23-21 (Bucs cover +3)
FitzMagic is back!
We all thought it ended after Ryan Fitzpatrick's disastrous second season with the Jets, but the magic certainly seemed to be back in a stupefying Week 1 win over Sean Payton's Saints. Fitz went HAM for 407 yards and 5 touchdowns (1 rushing). It was only the first week of a long season, but that may very well go down as the most shocking performance of the entire year. Time will tell.
Now we have a potential slopfest here against the champion Eagles. Nick Foles didn't look nearly as sharp with Alshon Jeffery out of commission. There's also no way the Bucs repeat what they did last week. This final score could potentially end up down a notch, maybe somewhere around 17-14 or 17-16 Eagles.
The Bucs certainly look like the right play against the spread, but I ain't trustin' Fitz against this Eagles D, late, in a tight game. These Eagles are closers. I think they have a better shot of going 2-0 than Tampa.
And now, frankly, I'm getting bored. Here are the rest of my Week 2 picks:
Saints over Browns, 38-20 (Saints cover -9.5)
Rams over Cardinals, 24-20 (Cardinals cover +13)
Lions over 49ers, 27-24 (Lions cover +6)
Jaguars over Patriots, 24-20 (Jaguars cover +1)
Broncos over Raiders, 38-13 (Broncos cover -6.5)
Cowboys over Giants, 21-17 (Cowboys cover -3)
Seahawks over Bears, 27-17 (Seahawks cover +3)
Best of luck, all!
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