After a busy couple months with my wedding and honeymoon, we're back in the swing of things here at John Frascella Sports. Don't forget to check out my NFL Team Power Rankings before diving in to my Week 8 picks against the spread. A quick season recap to this point:
Week 1: 9-7 (3-0 in best bets: Eagles, Dolphins and Redskins)
Week 2: 8-8 (0-3 in best bets: Steelers, Panthers and Broncos)
Week 3: 7-9 (2-1 in best bets: Redskins, Steelers and Chargers)
Week 4: 6-8-1 (3-0 in best bets: Patriots, Texans and Titans)
Weeks 5, 6 & 7: Wedding and honeymoon
Overall: 30-32-1 (8-4 in best bets) - you should probably go with my best bets instead of all my picks, haha. Okay, here we go...
Houston Texans over Miami Dolphins, 24-17 (Dolphins cover +7.5)
It's a revenge game for Brock Osweiler -- who has been surprisingly competent in the absence of Ryan Tannehill, who may actually be worse -- and Texans' HC Bill O'Brien has publicly admitted that Deshaun Watson is playing through a variety of injuries. Without Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson, I simply don't think the Dolphins are good enough to win this game outright, but they may squeeze out a cover if O'Brien leans on Lamar Miller to protect Watson. That will keep the clock running; Miami doesn't want to end up in a shootout.
Philadelphia Eagles over Jacksonville Jaguars, 24-16 (Eagles cover -3)
Both of these Final Four teams are shells of their former selves. Between Blake Bortles' porous play and Leonard Fournette's annoying injuries, Jacksonville's offense doesn't even exist at this point. They'll look for a boost from newly-acquired Carlos Hyde, but I don't think he's good enough to protect Bortles the way Fournette does when healthy. Doug Marrone knew he was walking a tightrope from the beginning with this group -- they have to play slow, drain the clock, limit turnovers and rely on defense and winning close games -- and that small window for success is only tightening now. The Eagles have a better chance to turn their ship around, and the line has already jumped from -2 to -3.5 on some sites.
Pittsburgh Steelers over Cleveland Browns, 31-21 (Steelers cover -8)
The Hue Jackson Horror Show has to end eventually -- maybe this will be it. The Steelers' momentum hasn't started rolling yet, and this is a good place to start in a division statement game against hotshot rookie QB Baker Mayfield. The last meeting between these two teams ended in a 21-21 tie, and Mike Tomlin's boys were clearly embarrassed by the result. I expect Ben Roethlisberger, James Conner, Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster to pile up the offensive production in this one. The line has moved from -7.5 to as high as -9.5 on some sites.
Kansas City Chiefs over Denver Broncos, 35-27 (Broncos cover +10)
Oooooh, this is a tough one. The Broncos certainly seemed like they could hang with the high-powered Chiefs in their first meeting, but that was at Mile High Stadium. I can't really envision a scenario where the Broncos win outright at KC, but I think Denver is feeling a bit better about itself after an absolute drubbing of the lowly Cardinals. I see some line movement from -9.5 to as high as -11, but I don't trust Andy Reid's defense enough for KC to cover 10 points against a Denver offense led by solid producers in Emmanuel Sanders, Phillip Lindsay and Demaryius Thomas.
Chicago Bears over New York Jets, 20-14 (Jets cover +7.5)
I have no faith in my Jets' offense against Khalil Mack, Danny Trevathan and the dangerous Chicago D, but 75% of the public is on the Bears and this line is just too high. If it was -3 moving to -3.5 I'd probably take the Bears, but at -7 moving to -7.5 I like the Jets to sneak in under the spread.
New York Giants over Washington Redskins, 24-21 (Giants cover +1) BEST BET
I've had a very good read on the 'Skins this season, including a couple of Best Bet victories with them on top. This week, it's 82% on the Redskins and everyone is dogging the Giants. The betting circumstances scream suckers, you gotta take the Redskins! which means I'm definitely going with the G-Men. I don't trust Pat Shurmur, Eli Manning or the depleted Giants' D, but sometimes you just have to make the right play. The Redskins are not a dominant division-leading team. Betting factors say ride with the Giants, here.
Detroit Lions over Seattle Seahawks, 28-24 (Lions cover -3)
This one could go either way, but it's 62% on the Seahawks at the moment. The public is feeling better about them now after a slow start, so it seems like a smarter play to lean Detroit at home. This particular spread will probably come down to the final two or three minutes of the game.
All right...I have to head out to my parents' 40th anniversary celebration!! Rest of the picks comin' in quick...
Cincinnati Bengals over Tampa Bay Bucs, 31-28 (Bucs cover +3.5)
Baltimore Ravens over Carolina Panthers, 27-20 (Ravens cover -2.5) BEST BET - line moved from Panthers -1 to Ravens -2.5 and still only 44% on Baltimore.
Indianapolis Colts over Oakland Raiders 27-17 (Colts cover -3)
San Francisco 49ers over Arizona Cardinals 24-13 (49ers cover -2)
Los Angeles Rams over Green Bay Packers 35-31 (Packers cover +8.5)
New Orleans Saints over Minnesota Vikings, 31-24 (Saints cover -1) BEST BET
New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills, 38-3 (Patriots cover -14)
Good luck, everyone!
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