Week 1: 9-7 (3-0 in best bets: Eagles, Dolphins and Redskins)
Week 2: 8-8 (0-3 in best bets: Steelers, Panthers and Broncos)
Overall: 17-15 (3-3 in best bets)
JOHNNY FRO'S WEEK 3 PICKS
New York Jets over Cleveland Browns, 20-17 (Jets cover +3)
Frankly, I'm appalled that my Jets are underdogs against the lowly Browns. Sure, things are a bit different this season -- wait, the Browns still haven't won a game, so things are exactly the same -- but Sam Darnold gives the Jets' offense a much higher upside than Tyrod Taylor's Browns. The rookie has been opening eyes in his first two games under center, whereas the Browns have been playing not to lose. And yet, they still lose (or tie, yuck).
It should be an ugly game -- Myles Garrett (two sacks and general awesomeness), Larry Ogunjobi (three sacks, swimming in his wake) and Terrance Mitchell (11 tackles, two forced fumbles) have been wreaking havoc for Gregg Williams' much-improved D -- but we can always count on the Browns to screw it up in the end. If it's Darnold vs. the Browns down the stretch, based on what I've seen so far, I'm taking Darnold all the way.
Indianapolis Colts over Philadelphia Eagles, 27-20 (Colts cover +6)
Well, I guess I just answered my own question.
I know it was weeks ago, but Carson Wentz looked so stiff in workout videos. Clearly he's feeling much better now, but I think it will take him 4-6 weeks to even approach top form. I just don't see him coming out and setting the world on fire this week.
On the other end, Frank Reich gets to see his old friends in Philly. Reich has done a decent job thus far as the new head coach of the Colts, while Andrew Luck feels his way around in an effort to regain his Pro Bowl form of the past. The Colts are a work in progress, but I think they're catching the defending champs at exactly the right time.
Carolina Panthers over Cincinnati Bengals, 24-20 (Panthers cover -3)
This just feels like an unsexy game. The Bengals have probably played a bit over their heads in the first two games, and the Panthers' offense has been choppy the past couple years. I don't think these Bengals can go 3-0, and Carolina is generally quite successful in close games, so I'll give Ron Rivera and Cam Newton the nod, here.
New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons, 38-35 (Saints cover +3)
How about an old-fashioned shootout?
The Falcons' offense has sputtered on the road the past couple seasons, but everything seems to click on their home turf. Matt Ryan is always looking for Julio Jones, but in Week 2 he added dangerous rookie Calvin Ridley to the mix. In the running game, Tevin Coleman has looked big, strong, fast and hungry in the absence of vet Devonta Freeman. The Saints' D got torched by the Bucs, so I expect Atlanta to pile up the points here.
For New Orleans, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara should be ready to explode after a very disappointing offensive performance against the aforementioned Browns' D. We'll go back and forth in this one, but I see Sean Payton's boys squeaking it out in the end.
Baltimore Ravens over Denver Broncos, 17-14 (Broncos cover +5)
I'm not sure how bad the Broncos really are. They're 2-0 after sloppy victories over the lowly Seahawks and Raiders, and I'm thinking the Case Keenum magic only existed in Minnesota. The Ravens aren't very good, either, so this should be a mostly boring game. The Broncos will lose because Demaryius Thomas is pure trash. Emmanuel Sanders is all alone out there, and Keenum needs more help.
The Ravens will grind out this win with tough D and of course, the master Justin Tucker. He'll knock through the game-winner.
Houston Texans over New York Giants, 27-17 (Texans cover -6.5)
The Public tends to be wrong, but you can't automatically go against the grain -- otherwise there is no strategy involved. The key is reading between the lines and deciding when the Public is right; and I think they are in this case. It's 64% on the Texans right now (which isn't even that bad, 70% or more is when you should pay close attention), and the Giants are just an absolute disaster. They have the worst offensive line and possibly the worst quarterback in the NFL. That's about as bad as it gets.
Houston desperately needs a win, and they are better equipped for one with Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller leading the way. I do think the Giants will hang around in the first half, but the pure talent of the Texans will help them pull away as the game drags on. Both teams are winless, but the Texans aren't in complete disarray. That's an important distinction to make.
Oakland Raiders over Miami Dolphins, 20-17 (Raiders cover +3)
Like the aforementioned Broncos, the Dolphins probably shouldn't be 2-0. Adam Gase is a very good football coach, but Ryan Tannehill is one of the weaker starting QBs in the NFL, and DeVante Parker still hasn't suited up. The Dolphins simply aren't very talented. They got totally outproduced by the Jets in Week 2, but the same ol' Jets gifted the victory with sloppiness and some very Jet-like plays.
On the flip side, Jon Gruden's Raiders are winless. They're going nowhere this season, but ya know what? Their defense has been surprisingly competitive. They were an absolute nightmare for Case Keenum and the Broncos, and Jared Goff and the Rams couldn't really get it going until garbage time. Linebackers Tahir Whitehead (11 tackles) and Derrick Johnson (9) should continue their strong play against an unspectacular Miami offense.
Just can't see the Dolphins starting 3-0. This game will be brutal to watch, but Oakland will hang on with tenacious defense down the stretch.
Washington Redskins over Green Bay Packers, 30-20 (Redskins cover +3) BEST BET
The Redskins put together a real stinker against the Colts. After an easy win over the Cardinals in their opener, Jay Gruden's gang shit the bed in Week 2. And that's when the Public reacts. It's already 71% on the Packers, and I expect that to climb by the time we kick off on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers is still playing hurt, and we know the 'Skins will improve on their measly nine-point output.
I could see a somewhat lazy effort from the Pack, as they expect to steal the game from Washington in the end. I don't think that will happen, though. Alex Smith will use his depth -- Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder, Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson and Jordan Reed in the passing game -- to keep Green Bay's defense off balance, the way Blake Bortles did against the Patriots this past week. When you don't have a bona fide, big-name No. 1 receiver, opposing defenses can lose some guys in the shuffle. We all know the Packers aren't known for their defense, anyway.
Minnesota Vikings over Buffalo Bills, 38-10 (Vikings cover -16.5)
Mike Zimmer and the Vikings are PISSED after tying the Packers. Rookie kicker Daniel Carlson was immediately cut after a nightmare performance for the ages, and all-time great Dan Bailey was quickly signed. Minnesota shouldn't have kicking issues in tight games any longer, but this isn't going to be a tight one, anyway.
I expect no mercy from Zimmer, Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and the Vikings. Defensively, Minnesota's stud defenders are licking their lips right now. Everson Griffen, Harrison Smith and Sheldon Richardson will be looking to tee off on rookie QB Josh Allen, as Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes aggressively try to add to their passes defended and interceptions.
The Bills will quit early in this one.
Kansas City Chiefs over San Francisco 49ers, 31-27 (49ers cover +6.5)
An over-under of 56.5?? That's one of the highest -- if not, the highest -- I've ever seen.
That number already informs you of the game script, so you know it will be a back-and-forth, high-scoring contest between two young-and-hungry quarterbacks, Pat Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo. If the Niners want a chance to squeak this one out, they'll need Marquise Goodwin at full strength. I think they'll give Andy Reid's red-hot bunch a go, but will ultimately fall short.
New England Patriots over Detroit Lions, 30-27 (Lions cover +7)
New England's acquisitions of Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman reek of desperation.
These are a couple of punks who don't do things "The Patriot Way," but Bill Belichick is desperate for some pure athletes after getting completely outclassed by the Jags -- who didn't even have their best player, Leonard Fournette!
The slow-but-sure demise of the Patriots is already under way, but they'll pull out the victory against a very weak Detroit team. Of course the Matt Patricia storyline is at play here, but does anyone really care if the Lions are only going to win two or three games all year?
Indianapolis Colts over Philadelphia Eagles, 27-20 (Colts cover +6)
Well, I guess I just answered my own question.
I know it was weeks ago, but Carson Wentz looked so stiff in workout videos. Clearly he's feeling much better now, but I think it will take him 4-6 weeks to even approach top form. I just don't see him coming out and setting the world on fire this week.
On the other end, Frank Reich gets to see his old friends in Philly. Reich has done a decent job thus far as the new head coach of the Colts, while Andrew Luck feels his way around in an effort to regain his Pro Bowl form of the past. The Colts are a work in progress, but I think they're catching the defending champs at exactly the right time.
Carolina Panthers over Cincinnati Bengals, 24-20 (Panthers cover -3)
This just feels like an unsexy game. The Bengals have probably played a bit over their heads in the first two games, and the Panthers' offense has been choppy the past couple years. I don't think these Bengals can go 3-0, and Carolina is generally quite successful in close games, so I'll give Ron Rivera and Cam Newton the nod, here.
New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons, 38-35 (Saints cover +3)
How about an old-fashioned shootout?
The Falcons' offense has sputtered on the road the past couple seasons, but everything seems to click on their home turf. Matt Ryan is always looking for Julio Jones, but in Week 2 he added dangerous rookie Calvin Ridley to the mix. In the running game, Tevin Coleman has looked big, strong, fast and hungry in the absence of vet Devonta Freeman. The Saints' D got torched by the Bucs, so I expect Atlanta to pile up the points here.
For New Orleans, Drew Brees, Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara should be ready to explode after a very disappointing offensive performance against the aforementioned Browns' D. We'll go back and forth in this one, but I see Sean Payton's boys squeaking it out in the end.
Baltimore Ravens over Denver Broncos, 17-14 (Broncos cover +5)
I'm not sure how bad the Broncos really are. They're 2-0 after sloppy victories over the lowly Seahawks and Raiders, and I'm thinking the Case Keenum magic only existed in Minnesota. The Ravens aren't very good, either, so this should be a mostly boring game. The Broncos will lose because Demaryius Thomas is pure trash. Emmanuel Sanders is all alone out there, and Keenum needs more help.
The Ravens will grind out this win with tough D and of course, the master Justin Tucker. He'll knock through the game-winner.
Houston Texans over New York Giants, 27-17 (Texans cover -6.5)
The Public tends to be wrong, but you can't automatically go against the grain -- otherwise there is no strategy involved. The key is reading between the lines and deciding when the Public is right; and I think they are in this case. It's 64% on the Texans right now (which isn't even that bad, 70% or more is when you should pay close attention), and the Giants are just an absolute disaster. They have the worst offensive line and possibly the worst quarterback in the NFL. That's about as bad as it gets.
Houston desperately needs a win, and they are better equipped for one with Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller leading the way. I do think the Giants will hang around in the first half, but the pure talent of the Texans will help them pull away as the game drags on. Both teams are winless, but the Texans aren't in complete disarray. That's an important distinction to make.
Oakland Raiders over Miami Dolphins, 20-17 (Raiders cover +3)
Like the aforementioned Broncos, the Dolphins probably shouldn't be 2-0. Adam Gase is a very good football coach, but Ryan Tannehill is one of the weaker starting QBs in the NFL, and DeVante Parker still hasn't suited up. The Dolphins simply aren't very talented. They got totally outproduced by the Jets in Week 2, but the same ol' Jets gifted the victory with sloppiness and some very Jet-like plays.
On the flip side, Jon Gruden's Raiders are winless. They're going nowhere this season, but ya know what? Their defense has been surprisingly competitive. They were an absolute nightmare for Case Keenum and the Broncos, and Jared Goff and the Rams couldn't really get it going until garbage time. Linebackers Tahir Whitehead (11 tackles) and Derrick Johnson (9) should continue their strong play against an unspectacular Miami offense.
Just can't see the Dolphins starting 3-0. This game will be brutal to watch, but Oakland will hang on with tenacious defense down the stretch.
Washington Redskins over Green Bay Packers, 30-20 (Redskins cover +3) BEST BET
The Redskins put together a real stinker against the Colts. After an easy win over the Cardinals in their opener, Jay Gruden's gang shit the bed in Week 2. And that's when the Public reacts. It's already 71% on the Packers, and I expect that to climb by the time we kick off on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers is still playing hurt, and we know the 'Skins will improve on their measly nine-point output.
I could see a somewhat lazy effort from the Pack, as they expect to steal the game from Washington in the end. I don't think that will happen, though. Alex Smith will use his depth -- Chris Thompson, Jamison Crowder, Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson and Jordan Reed in the passing game -- to keep Green Bay's defense off balance, the way Blake Bortles did against the Patriots this past week. When you don't have a bona fide, big-name No. 1 receiver, opposing defenses can lose some guys in the shuffle. We all know the Packers aren't known for their defense, anyway.
Minnesota Vikings over Buffalo Bills, 38-10 (Vikings cover -16.5)
Mike Zimmer and the Vikings are PISSED after tying the Packers. Rookie kicker Daniel Carlson was immediately cut after a nightmare performance for the ages, and all-time great Dan Bailey was quickly signed. Minnesota shouldn't have kicking issues in tight games any longer, but this isn't going to be a tight one, anyway.
I expect no mercy from Zimmer, Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and the Vikings. Defensively, Minnesota's stud defenders are licking their lips right now. Everson Griffen, Harrison Smith and Sheldon Richardson will be looking to tee off on rookie QB Josh Allen, as Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes aggressively try to add to their passes defended and interceptions.
The Bills will quit early in this one.
Kansas City Chiefs over San Francisco 49ers, 31-27 (49ers cover +6.5)
An over-under of 56.5?? That's one of the highest -- if not, the highest -- I've ever seen.
That number already informs you of the game script, so you know it will be a back-and-forth, high-scoring contest between two young-and-hungry quarterbacks, Pat Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo. If the Niners want a chance to squeak this one out, they'll need Marquise Goodwin at full strength. I think they'll give Andy Reid's red-hot bunch a go, but will ultimately fall short.
New England Patriots over Detroit Lions, 30-27 (Lions cover +7)
New England's acquisitions of Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman reek of desperation.
These are a couple of punks who don't do things "The Patriot Way," but Bill Belichick is desperate for some pure athletes after getting completely outclassed by the Jags -- who didn't even have their best player, Leonard Fournette!
The slow-but-sure demise of the Patriots is already under way, but they'll pull out the victory against a very weak Detroit team. Of course the Matt Patricia storyline is at play here, but does anyone really care if the Lions are only going to win two or three games all year?
THE REST OF JOHNNY FRO'S WEEK 3 PICKS
Chargers over Rams, 30-24 (Chargers cover +7) BEST BET
Bears over Cardinals, 20-3 (Bears cover -6.5)
Seahawks over Cowboys, 24-17 (Seahawks cover -1)
Steelers over Bucs, 27-17 (Steelers cover -1) BEST BET
One quick note...just keep an eye on the quarterback situation in Arizona. Early reports are that shitty Sam Bradford is starting again, but if they pivot last-minute to Josh Rosen, you may at least want to consider a closer score. If Bradford plays, the Cardinals will have to score on defense to score at all.
Okay, best of luck!
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