Thursday, May 28, 2020

Frascella's MLB Top 100 Pitchers, Part 4: They Say Lefties Have More Fun, Don't They?

Photo Credit: Through the Fence Baseball


Kenta Maeda, Miles Mikolas and Domingo German led the way in Part 3 of my MLB Top 100 Pitchers series. Before we get into this installment, here's my ranking criteria again:

1. 50% of the weight: My own personal assessment of the pitcher, based on stuff, stats, consistency, ballpark factors and whatever else floats into my mind. This has to get the most weight, otherwise it wouldn't be my list.

2. 20% of the weight: The story of the pitcher. Who is this guy, over time? For example, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are pretty f'n awesome every single year; that has to count for something, right? Conversely, guys like Ken Giles and Emilio Pagan have had fluctuating results. Guys like Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have had dramatically fluctuating results. You get the idea. Who are they, really?

3. 20% of the weight: 2019 Yahoo fantasy baseball ranking. The algorithm combines all statistics in a reasonable way, so this is very helpful. For starting pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Quality Starts and Wins. For relief pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and Saves. This ranking system doesn't include Holds, so I will have to evaluate the middle relievers and setup men on my own.

4. 10% of the weight: 2018 stats, and maybe a little consideration for 2017.

69. Marco Gonzales, SP, Seattle Mariners

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #39 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 147 K/203 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 145 K/166 innings

Three lefties in a row here, to start us off right...

Poor Marco...nobody really talks about him. The Astros win the division, make deep postseason runs and get all of the headlines for cheating. The Angels added big names in Rendon and Maddon to an even bigger name in Mike Trout. The A's seem to be perennial playoff contenders amidst "Moneyball" talk (and right now, they are the center of attention for not paying their minor league players) and the Rangers finally have a quality rotation to go along with their power bats.

So who the hell talks about the Mariners? I don't hear a single peep about Gonzales, a 28-year old lefty whom the Mariners "found" and salvaged. Early in his career, with the Cardinals, Gonzales bounced back and forth between the minors and bigs. His Cardinals' ERAs? 4.15, 13.50 and 13.50 (in small sample sizes). But the Mariners saw something in him anyway, and he has delivered in a major way. They found their ace in the rubble, a guy who has thrown 166 and 203 innings in the past two seasons. He's been remarkably consistent for a reclamation project, and he led the majors this past season with 34 starts. This is a solid, durable lefty arm.

68. Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #38 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.02 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 173 K/165 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.94 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 44 K/33 innings

Another "Zylbert Guy" - this 26-year old talent was the 7th overall pick in the 2012 Draft. As a 6'4" lefty with a nice fastball and Zito-esque, slow curveball, Fried's (unsurprisingly) been accompanied by hype along the way. He's starting to deliver on that now, as he cracked 160 innings in his first full season in the bigs. If Fried can cut down on his walks and lower his WHIP on a consistent basis, he'd certainly be on a crash course for my top 50. He's smooth and has putaway stuff, so he just needs to refine the little things and "polish up" as we say in the biz.

67. Matthew Boyd, SP, Detroit Tigers

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #47 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 238 K/185 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 159 K/170 innings

When I think about Matt Boyd...I immediately think of Patrick Corbin. Just look at the numbers...

Corbin (age 26): 131 Ks in 155 innings
            (age 27): 178 Ks in 189 innings
            (age 28): 246 Ks in 200 innings

Boyd (age 26): 110 Ks in 135 innings
          (age 27): 159 Ks in 170 innings
          (age 28): 238 Ks in 185 innings

Like...what? What did they go to the same personal pitching coach during the offseason? That's uncanny. Corbin is a 6'3" lefty...and so is Boyd. Neither one of them have a dominant fastball, but they've both learned to lean on devastating, disappearing sliders. They've identified their "money" pitch, and it took them both until age 28 to really exploit it. I didn't know if the success was repeatable for Corbin, but so far, it has been.

Now, for me, the catch-22 is Boyd's ERA. Why is he still hovering between 4.30 and 4.60? Why didn't the 238 strikeouts (tied for the 10th-most in all of baseball, with Corbin of course) translate into better overall results? I'm not quite sure, yet. Maybe it's because the Tigers suck as a team? Maybe their inexperienced defensive players are costing Boyd runs? We can only postulate.

Boyd's a lefty (commodity), and his strikeout numbers indicate he might possibly be a top-50 pitcher; but right now, I'm just not willing to go there. I need to see the Ks translate into other stats, a development that eventually occurred for Boyd's mirror, Corbin.

66. Dakota Hudson, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #36 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 136 K/174 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.63 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 19 K/27 innings

This is not sustainable. Hudson's 86 walks were the most in all of baseball. But somehow, he just kept gettin' the job done. I mean, we can read between the lines of his numbers...he's getting groundball double-plays when he needs them. He's walking guys - there are plenty of runners on base - and not striking out enough, yet his ERA hasn't been higher than 3.35 yet. But if he doesn't get his issues under control, his results will change. Yes, 2018 was an extremely small sample size, but look at the upward trends - ERA and WHIP both rose in '19. The more innings he throws at that walk rate - despite very good natural stuff - the more likely he becomes a 4.00-plus guy. At age 25, it's time for Dakota to get a better overall feel for his craft.

65. Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #85 SP
-2019 Notable Stats (Rookie): 2.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 96 K/80 innings
-Minor League Stats: 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 384 K/382 innings

Like I wrote about Julio Urias in Part 2 of my series, sometimes we need to rank guys on "spec". Gallen's still a baby - 2019 marked his first appearance in the major leagues. But damn, unlike his predecessor Hudson, this kid has craft. He has feel.

One of the cool things about baseball is...guys usually just are who they are. Steven Summer and I always use Adam LaRoche as an example - just take a look at the consistency of his career stats. You can probably see where I'm going with this...Gallen pitched in the minors from 2014 through (some of) 2019, and poof! Look at the similarities in his first set of big-league numbers. He was the same guy. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it's also an awfully good sign.

Truthfully, this one's also a matter of circumstance. If Derek Jeter and his Marlins had held on to Gallen, I may have snuck him into the back end of my 50s. But Chase Field is a whole 'nother ballgame. Coors Field is a pitcher's hell, but it's incredibly hot at Chase, too (and I'm not talking about the weather in Arizona). Gallen, despite being a young buck, only averaged 92.9 MPH on his fastball as a rookie. That's something to keep an eye on at Chase Field. He'll really have to continue to hit his spots with consistency.

64. Julio Teheran, SP, Los Angeles Angels

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #53 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 162 K/174 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.94 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 162 K/175 innings

You know...I'm not really a Teheran guy. I feel like I'm always saying to people - have you seen him pitch recently? His arm is shot. His two-seam fastball is just floating in there. But thankfully, I've learned to ignore my instincts (sometimes). Somehow, someway, Teheran is a pretty damn good pitcher! A 3.67 lifetime ERA and seven-straight seasons of 174+ innings. Ya gotta respect that durability.

Like Gallen, this ranking is a matter of circumstance. Teheran makes my 50s if he stays in the National League with the Braves. But I don't like the AL West for him. The Astros, A's and Rangers all have the potential to mash him. I think he'll fool them early on in his introduction to the AL, but the hitters' transition will come sooner rather than later.

63. Mike Fiers, SP, Oakland Athletics

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #38 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.90 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 126 K/184 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.56 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 139 K/172 innings

The Whistleblower!

Man, this guy ruined baseball until coronavirus came along. The latter took the cake.

That being said, I try not to judge for off-the-field activity. And Fiers is like Teheran - he doesn't blow me away with his stuff, either. He averaged just 90 MPH on his fastball last season. And yet? The 34-year old vet just continues to get the job done. More of that A's/Rays analytics "magic", I suppose. Oakland Coliseum is traditionally a pitchers' park, and the crafty ole vet is exploiting that to the best of his ability. You won't be impressed when you watch him pitch, but he's been consistently solid.

62. Zack Britton, RP, New York Yankees

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #52 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 1.91 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 53 K/61 innings, 29 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 34 K/40 innings, 7 saves

One of the better relief pitchers of his generation. Like Brandon Workman in Part 2 of my series, Britton was a failed starter. It must be something about the AL East (and we can probably figure out what that is). Workman failed as a starter with the Red Sox, and Britton with the Orioles. But ZB quickly found his niche in the bullpen, saving 37 games in 2014 - his first season as a closer - with a ridiculous 1.65 ERA. He followed that up with two more out-of-this-world campaigns - back to back all-star seasons, including a 4th-place finish in the Cy Young voting. And despite advancing years, he's been a steady, solid reliever ever since. Britton's known for his power sinker, one that comes in particularly handy when Aaron Boone needs him to clean up somebody else's mess. Britton saws hitters off and repeatedly kills opposing rallies.

61. Adam Ottavino, RP, New York Yankees

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #37 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 1.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 88 K/66 innings, 29 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 112 K/77 innings, 34 holds

Throughout my series I've been writing that reliever performance fluctuates...but apparently that doesn't apply to Mr. Ottavino. He led the majors in Holds in '18, then finished 4th last season. His ERA dropped below 2.00, despite pitching in a difficult pitchers' park within a difficult division. And don't forget, this kid did a heck of a job pitching at Coors Field in the past, and basically no one else can say that about themselves. Ottavino had five seasons under 4.00 in Colorado, and four of those were under 3.00. That's pretty miraculous work in that park. He's probably the steadiest setup man in the game right now (even if I don't have a ton of confidence in him in the postseason).

60. David Price, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #83 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.28 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 128 K/107 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.58 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 177 K/176 innings

I don't know why...but I love making people look at David Price's career stats.

I mean, did you really know that David Price is one of the best pitchers of his generation? Did you really have that context?

Led the majors in innings pitched in 2014 and 2016. Led the AL in ERA in 2012 and 2015. Led the majors in starts in '11, '14 and '16. Won 15 or more games six times. Struck out over 200 batters five times. Led the majors in strikeouts in 2014. A five-time all-star. Four times he finished in the top six in Cy Young voting. Three times in the top two. In 2012 he won the award. Did you really know all this?

And he's finally tapering off just a bit now, but the transition to the NL will help him. He'll grit and grind. He'll battle for every single out. And one thing has never changed about David Price...he's not afraid to challenge you with his fastball. His velocity has dropped from 94.3 to 92.7 to 92.0 over the course of the past three seasons - which is part of the reason why I couldn't squeeze him into my 50s - but he's still coming after guys. He won't back down. And there's very minimal individual pressure when you're in a rotation with two of the absolute best, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. Julio Urias, Alex Wood and Ross Stripling should be quite helpful, too.

Come back next time for the 50s!

ARCHIVE:

Part 1: Pitchers 90-100

Part 2: Pitchers 81-89

Part 3: Pitchers 70-80

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Frascella's MLB Top 100 Pitchers, Part 3: Two Rays, Two Rockies and Two Twins

Photo Credit: MLB.com


Sean Doolittle, Ken Giles and Julio Urias led the way in Part 2 of my MLB Top 100 Pitchers series. Before we get into Part 3, here's my ranking criteria again:

1. 50% of the weight: My own personal assessment of the pitcher, based on stuff, stats, consistency, ballpark factors and whatever else floats into my mind. This has to get the most weight, otherwise it wouldn't be my list.

2. 20% of the weight: The story of the pitcher. Who is this guy, over time? For example, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are pretty f'n awesome every single year; that has to count for something, right? Conversely, guys like Ken Giles and Emilio Pagan have had fluctuating results. Guys like Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have had dramatically fluctuating results. You get the idea. Who are they, really?

3. 20% of the weight: 2019 Yahoo fantasy baseball ranking. The algorithm combines all statistics in a reasonable way, so this is very helpful. For starting pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Quality Starts and Wins. For relief pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and Saves. This ranking system doesn't include Holds, so I will have to evaluate the middle relievers and setup men on my own.

4. 10% of the weight: 2018 stats, and maybe a little consideration for 2017.

80. Caleb Smith, SP, Miami Marlins

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #67 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 168 K/153 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.19 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 88 K/77 innings

A 6'2" lefty, smooth as silk...those guys catch your eye on the hill, don't they? But Caleb is similar to Andrew Heaney - whom I ranked in my last installment - in that he's a lefty strikeout pitcher who hasn't yet been able to keep his ERA down. Also...he's not as young as you might think. He feels relatively new on the scene, but Smith is 28 years old. It's put up or shut up time. If we have an MLB season, this will be the time to see where he's at. Is he trending in the right direction, or is he really a 4.30/4.40 ish starting pitcher at the big-league level? He gets that lefty benefit of the doubt right now, but I can't do any better than No. 80 on my list.

79. Hector Neris, RP, Philadelphia Phillies

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #16 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 89 K/67 innings, 28 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 5.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 76 K/47 innings, 11 saves

Neris' storyline is pretty similar to Ken Giles' (whom I ranked No. 82). He's been one of the better relievers in his league, but 2018 marked a real down year. They both bounced back beautifully in '19. Like I always say, reliever performance fluctuates. I'm not gonna nitpick you, if you want to rank Giles or Raisel Iglesias or Brandon Workman ahead of Neris. They are all in a very similar area. I'm giving Neris the very slight edge here, because he's one of the few guys left to feature a devastating splitter, and Citizens Bank Park is an extremely difficult place to pitch. The fences feel like they are just outside of the infield.

78. Yonny Chirinos, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays

-2019 Yahoo Rankings: #17 RP, #48 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.85 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 114 K/133 innings, 18 starts, 8 relief
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 75 K/89 innings, 7 starts, 11 relief

I got love for these kinda pitchers - Chirinos doesn't bitch about his role. He does exactly what is asked of him. You see the splits, there...18 starts one year, 8 relief appearances...7 starts another year, 11 relief appearances; he's completely flexible. Most don't comprehend the immense value of a swingman like Chirinos. Like I wrote about Iglesias in my last installment, some pitchers don't respond when you mess with their roles. The Reds f'd around with Iglesias, and his performance faltered. That just hasn't happened with Chirinos, to date. He's an "opener", a middle guy, a long guy...he does it all. He's good at inducing groundballs when he needs to, too. Trust me, if other teams could do what the Rays do, they would. They just can't pull it off without guys like Chirinos and No. 76 on my list...

77. Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #61 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.84 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 150 K/150 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 5.12 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 183 K/172 innings

Jon Gray is just one of those frustrating guys. I had him in fantasy when he had that 5.12 ERA, so maybe that's why I find him frustrating. But not really, though. The kid has lights-out stuff. If you just watched him throw...like if you watched him during a bullpen session...you'd confuse him for an elite MLB pitcher. Everything he throws is crisp. He's very smooth for a big fella at 6'4", 227. But he walks guys. He loses his command. He's kind of like a right-handed Robbie Ray. These guys can be maddening. Of course, we have to cut Jonny a lot of slack due to Coors Field. I'd say he's actually one of the better Rockies' starting pitchers of all time. That may not be saying much, but it's a reality. To me, you take him out of Coors and he becomes a 3.90 guy, consistently, and his WHIP drops down into the 1.20s, even with the walks. He's intriguing and enticing, but not solid nor reliable.

76. Ryan Yarbrough, SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays

-2019 Yahoo Rankings: #16 RP, #46 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.13 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 117 K/141 innings, 14 starts, 14 relief
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 128K/141 innings, 6 starts, 32 relief

He's the (slightly) better, left-handed version of Chirinos. When in doubt, go with the lefty, right? (No pun intended.) Yarbrough, like Chirinos and some other Rays, is a modern MLB pitcher. He's a "flex". He's been effective in every role he's been asked to fill. Only reason he's not in my top 70 is because I'd like to see that ERA come down from the 4.00 ERA range and land in the 3.50-3.75 range as a hyper-effective flex. He still has some room for growth and improvement, though. He's shown a clear commitment to working on his craft and evolving with the ever-changing times.

75. Ross Stripling, RP/SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

-2019 Yahoo Rankings: #53 RP, #96 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.47 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 93 K/90 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.02 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 136/122 innings

The more proven version of both Chirinos and Yarbrough. In the old days, we used to rank "starters", "closers" and "middle relievers" - and the starters and closers pretty much dominated the rankings. But this is a new era. Sure, we still have those three groups...but "middle relief" has been split into long men, middle men, specialists and setup men. And Stripling isn't even on that list. He's a flex, like the two aforementioned Rays; Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias, Seth Lugo, Carlos Martinez and John Gant (of course, there are others).

And damn, I feel bad for Stripling. The kid simply cannot catch a break. No matter how well he pitches, he can never lock down a rotation spot with the Dodgers. I think Alex Wood - who cannot stay healthy - is getting his rotation spot this year. He'll probably get hurt, then Stripling will have to bounce back-and-forth from the bullpen to the rotation. If no one will show Stripling any respect, I guess I have to...he might be the most underrated pitcher in baseball, particularly in terms of value.

74. Miles Mikolas, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #55 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 144 K/184 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146 K/200 innings

Maybe the trickiest guy to rank in this installment. Before taking off for Japan, Mikolas had a 6.44 ERA with the Rangers. Over 10 starts, he got his clock cleaned. Maybe he felt like he didn't belong anymore. Maybe he liked the money or culture in Japan. Or maybe Texas' hitter-friendly confines were the ultimate X-factor in his initial major league demise. But Mikolas starred overseas, and came back to the MLB with a vengeance in 2018. Did you know he led the National League in winning percentage (18-4 record)? He relentlessly attacked the strikezone, and his results were fantastic. He's a double-play inducer with a real heavy ball. But...ya gotta be (at least) a little worried about those '19 numbers, right? Did he return to the MLB with temporary magic? Is he trending back toward that 6.44 ERA of old? I don't think we have all the answers right now. Maybe he's a top-50 MLB pitcher. Maybe he's outside of the top 100. We should have enough information to evaluate after his next full season at this level.

73. German Marquez, SP, Colorado Rockies

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #62 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 175 K/ 174 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.77 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 230 K/196 innings

It's pick your poison, when it comes to these two Rockies' right-handers. It's a matter of personal preference. I don't know if you can really distinguish between Marquez and Gray. But my gut tells me Marquez is the better of the two. 230 Ks in 196 innings as a Rocky? That's pretty much unheard of, right? He's consistently averaged right around 95 MPH with his fastball, and when he gets on top of the ball he reminds me of prime Carlos Zambrano. There isn't a lot of finesse in Marquez's game...but I like that about him. He'll challenge you. He toes the rubber and brings it. Hitters are going to get theirs at Coors anyway, so I like Marquez's strategy. Tip your cap to an old-fashioned "come and get it" pitcher.

72. Kenta Maeda, SP/RP, Minnesota Twins

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #9 RP, #37 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 169 K/153 innings, 26 starts, 11 relief
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.81 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 153 K/125 innings, 20 starts, 19 relief

I'm not generally too impressed when I watch this guy pitch. He's 32 years old, and sometimes his arm isn't completely loose. You can tell, because he's averaging around 90 MPH with his fastball, and the ball seems to be floating in there. But over the years, I've learned to block this sort of thing out. What does it matter if a guy's stuff doesn't look particularly great? I used to doubt Huston Street and he had a strong career. Trevor Hoffman is one of the greatest closers of all time. So obviously, it isn't all about stuff. So yeah, Maeda doesn't always look great to me, but the veteran has craft. He mixes speeds and deliveries, and when he's on, he can average around 94-95 (especially out of the bullpen). And again...these flex guys are immensely valuable. I respect Maeda for taking the ball, no matter what the situation. It will be very interesting to see how he transitions from the NL West to the AL Central. If he pitches well as a full-time starter for the Twins, I will definitely move him into my top 70 or 60.

71. Taylor Rogers, RP, Minnesota Twins

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #11 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.61 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 90 K/69 innings, 30 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.63 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 75 K, 68 innings, 2 saves

There was an opening back in 2018, and Rogers took advantage. At the time, the Twins were mixing-and-matching in the bullpen - Fernando Rodney, Trevor Hildenberger and Trevor May had also picked up saves - but Rogers clearly emerged as the best of the bunch. In '19 he got a hold of the job rather easily...because he earned it. He's a 6'3" lefty who strikes out more than a batter per inning; anyone surprised that the Twins have become enamored with him? Rogers is one of the best lefty relievers in the game now. In fact, he's one of the best overall.

70. Domingo German, SP, New York Yankees

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #27 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.03 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 153 K/143 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 5.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 102 K/85 innings

Initially I had German in the 60s, ahead of two fellow Yankees. I changed my mind, though, because again...I'm considering "the story" of the pitcher. And what's the story, here? German opened up last season looking like a Cy Young contender. While the Yankees suffered through a barrage of injuries, German announced himself as a major force on the hill - his 18-4 record (like Mikolas, earlier) led the American League. But he battled some injuries. Then, he embarrassed himself and the Yankee organization with serious domestic violence allegations. He let his whole team down when he was unable to finish the season. Now, he still has 81 games to serve on his lenient suspension. Obviously, this is a kid with questionable character. Felonious behavior cannot be ignored. He's probably a top 50 or 60 pitcher, but there's more to life than pure talent.

Tune in next time for the 60s!

ARCHIVE:

Part 1: Pitchers 90-100

Part 2: Pitchers 81-89

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Frascella's NFL Top 100 Players: THE FULL LIST

Photo Credit: Daily Snark


Thank you all for reading throughout my series! Obviously, I rolled this thing out in installments. Here's my ranking criteria:

1. 50% of the weight: "The Eye Test" - my own personal assessment of the player's talent, productivity and overall impact on winning. This has to come first, otherwise it wouldn't be my list. 

2. 20%: Stats. The raw numbers. 

3. 10%: Impact on winning in pressure situations and most importantly, the playoffs. 

4. 10%: The experts over at Pro Football Focus really know their stuff; they examine every single play of the NFL season, and I trust their detailed analyses. I'm giving 10% of the weight to their 2019 Top 101 NFL Players

5. 10%: Recent Pro Bowl selections. Thanks to the coaches, players and fans to their contributions, here. 

Please note: I use logic. The quarterback position is the most influential in all of professional sports, and I absolutely take that into account (PFF does not, in their rankings).

And here's how we got to this point:

Part 10, Players 1-10

Part 9, Players 11-20

Part 8, Players 21-30

Part 7, Players 31-40

Part 6, Players 41-50

Part 5, Players 51-59

Part 4, Players 60-69

Part 3, Players 70-79

Part 2, Players 80-89

Part 1, Players 90-100

But if you don't feel like reading all the way through, here's the raw list...

100. Josh Allen, QB, Bills

99. Damien Williams, RB, Chiefs

98. Tyron Smith, T, Cowboys

97. Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers

96. Ronnie Stanley, T, Ravens

95. John Brown, WR, Bills

94. Kyle Van Noy, Edge, Dolphins

93. Jared Goff, QB, Rams

92. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Titans

91. Anthony Harris, S, Vikings

90. Von Miller, Edge, Broncos

89. Frank Clark, Edge, Chiefs

88. DeForest Buckner, DT, Colts

87. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens

86. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

85. Joe Haden, CB, Steelers

84. A.J. Brown, WR, Titans

83. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Steelers

82. Bobby Wagner, MLB, Seahawks

81. Devin McCourty, S, Patriots

80. Justin Houston, Edge, Colts

79. DeMarcus Lawrence, Edge, Cowboys

78. Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles

77. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

76. Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns

75. Philip Rivers, QB, Colts

74. Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions

73. Brandon Brooks, G, Eagles

72. Arik Armstead, Edge, 49ers

71. Danielle Hunter, Edge, Vikings

70. Lane Johnson, T, Eagles

69. Za'Darius Smith, Edge, Packers

68. Shaq Barrett, Edge, Bucs

67. Jadeveon Clowney, Edge, Free Agent

66. Zack Martin, G, Cowboys

65. Lavonte David, LB, Bucs

64. Jason Kelce, C, Eagles

63. Mark Ingram, RB, Ravens

62. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders

61. Darren Waller, TE, Raiders

60. Darius Leonard, LB, Colts

59. Demario Davis, LB, Saints

58. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

57. Fletcher Cox, DT, Eagles

56. Marcus Peters, CB, Ravens

55. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

54. Myles Garrett, Edge, Browns

53. Ryan Ramcyzk, T, Saints

52. Carlos Dunlap, Edge, Bengals

51. Terron Armstead, T, Saints

50. Quenton Nelson, G, Colts

49. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

48. Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs

47. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings

46. Allen Robinson, WR, Bears

45. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers

44. Tre'Davious White, CB, Bills

43. Odell Beckham, Jr., WR, Browns

42. Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

41. Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants

40. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks

39. Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles

38. Amari Cooper, WR, Cowboys

37. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers

36. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys

35. Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys

34. Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings

33. Richard Sherman, CB, 49ers

32. Harrison Smith, S, Vikings

31. Jamal Adams, S, Jets

30. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers

29. Mike Evans, WR, Bucs

28. Nick Chubb, RB, Browns

27. Joey Bosa, Edge, Chargers

26. T.J. Watt, Edge, Steelers

25. Chandler Jones, Edge, Cardinals

24. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings

23. Cameron Jordan, Edge, Saints

22. Calais Campbell, Edge, Ravens

21. Cameron Heyward, DT, Steelers

20. George Kittle, TE, 49ers

19. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans

18. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs

17. Khalil Mack, Edge, Bears

16. Davante Adams, WR, Packers

15. Nick Bosa, Edge, 49ers

14. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs

13. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers

12. Stephon Gilmore, CB, Patriots

11. Aaron Donald, DT, Rams

10. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Cardinals

9. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

8. Drew Brees, QB, Saints

7. Tom Brady, QB, Bucs

6. Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans

5. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints

4. Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

2. Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs

Bring on the debate!

Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Frascella's MLB Top 100 Pitchers, Part 2: Two "Zylbert Guys" Take the Cake

Photo Credit: Miami Herald


Welcome back!

Jameson Taillon, Carlos Carrasco and Seth Lugo led the way in Part 1 of my MLB Top 100 Pitchers series. Before I get into Part 2, here's my ranking criteria (again):

1. 50% of the weight: My own personal assessment of the pitcher, based on stuff, stats, consistency, ballpark factors and whatever else floats into my mind. This has to get the most weight, otherwise it wouldn't be my list.

2. 20% of the weight: The story of the pitcher. Who is this guy, over time? For example, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are pretty f'n awesome every single year; that has to count for something, right? Conversely, guys like Ken Giles and Emilio Pagan have had fluctuating results. Guys like Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have had dramatically fluctuating results. You get the idea. Who are they, really?

3. 20% of the weight: 2019 Yahoo fantasy baseball ranking. The algorithm combines all statistics in a reasonable way, so this is very helpful. For starting pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Quality Starts and Wins. For relief pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and Saves. This ranking system doesn't include Holds, so I will have to evaluate the middle relievers and setup men on my own.

4. 10% of the weight: 2018 stats, and maybe a little consideration for 2017.

89. Julio Urias, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

-2019 Yahoo Rankings: #71 SP, #31 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.49 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 85 K/79 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 0.00 ERA in just 3 appearances

Sometimes you have to rank guys on "spec". Urias has consistently been touted as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, and he's still just 23 years old. He has real craft for his age, and his results have been very convincing in a relatively small sample size. He's a strong-minded lefty who changes speeds and eye levels with the poise of a 10-year vet. He's already shown the ability to be effective as both a starter and reliever. I'm pretty sure he'll be in my top 70 or 60 next time around.

88. Tanner Roark, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #93 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.35 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 158 K/165 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.34 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 146 K/180 innings

Hey man, sometimes you just need a guy who takes the ball. Roark has thrown over 100 innings six seasons in a row, and he was over 165 in five out of six. He's made 30 or more starts four seasons in a row. He sports a 3.71 career ERA, and I've always liked his big, overhand curveball. Earlier in his career, he was definitely hovering around my top 50. His results have tapered off a bit, but he's still a reliable big-league starter who brings it every time he's on the hill.

87. Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #126 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 118 K/95 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.15 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 180 K/180 innings

The first of back-to-back "Zylbertttt guysssss".

This kid's a little bit maddening. A 6'2" lefty with wipeout stuff who certainly looks the part. But can he stay healthy? Can he pitch to an ERA under 4.00? This is perhaps a generous ranking because I'm considering the Angels' high-powered offense. This kid is gonna pile up some wins if he stays healthy and keeps his walks down. Like I wrote about Lance McCullers in Part 1 of my series, Heaney's team really needs him this season. Let's see how he responds. Like Urias, he has the potential to be a top 70 or 60 guy.

86. Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #73 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 151 K/179 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.44 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 30 K/34 innings

Sandy Alcantara can bring it. Out of the bullpen with the Cardinals in 2017, he averaged 98.3 MPH on his fastball. He's toned things down a bit as a starter with the Marlins, averaging a still-robust 95.6 MPH. And yet, he didn't strike out a batter per inning this past season. Obviously, he needs to continue developing his secondary stuff, because a kid with that kind of arm should be right up there with the best strikeout pitchers in the National League. He's still just 24 years old. He has a crazy amount of potential.

85. Chris Bassitt, SP, Oakland Athletics

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #52 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 3.81 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 141 K/144 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 41 K/47 innings

Here's one of the more underrated guys in the game right now. Bassitt isn't a top-of-the-rotation kinda pitcher, but he profiles as an extremely useful mid-rotation arm. He has some craft out there. He hits his spots and he's very willing to go deep into ballgames. He's not flashy, but I like that about him. He's all business and he gets the job done...even if no one notices.

84. Sean Doolittle, RP, Washington Nationals

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #28 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 66 K/60 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 1.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 60 K/45 innings

Probably the most difficult guy to rank in this installment. When I think of quality left-handed relievers, my mind immediately jumps to Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand, Zack Britton and Doolittle. But the reality is that Doolittle lost his closer's job last season. Daniel Hudson swooped in and did a fantastic job in many high-pressure spots. But again, I'm considering "the story" of the pitcher in these rankings. Doolittle has been one of the best for awhile now. I don't love his stuff - he throws mostly four-seam fastballs, which can be flat - but he boasts a ridiculous 0.95 lifetime WHIP. Quality left-handed relievers are just so difficult to come by.

83. Brandon Workman, RP, Boston Red Sox

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #7 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 1.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 104 K/71 innings, 16 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.27 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 37 K/41 innings, 0 saves

Workman is similar to Seth Lugo, whom I highlighted in my last installment. They aren't necessarily similar in the way that they throw - I personally think Lugo has a better all-around arsenal - but they are similar in that their overall stats will deceive you. I'm just being real, here - when the Red Sox tried Workman as a starter back in 2013 and '14, I wasn't the least bit impressed. I thought he was terrible. In his second season as a starter, he was averaging just 90.4 MPH on his fastball and his arm looked completely shot. But, ya know...transitioning to the bullpen can work wonders. You only gotta hit spots for one inning (sometimes two). And Workman as an effective reliever isn't a new thing. He was absolutely lights out in '19, but he was also very good in both '17 and '18. He's found his niche. I don't think it's pretty, but he's been one of the better relievers in the American League.

82. Ken Giles, RP, Toronto Blue Jays

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #21 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 1.87 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 83 K/53 innings, 23 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 53 K/50 innings, 26 saves

Get on board and ride this roller coaster. Giles imploded in 2018 - he just completely lost it. His electric fastball simply wasn't getting the job done. Maybe he was tipping his pitches, which I suspected Edwin Diaz was doing last year. Anyway, Giles turned it around rather quickly in '19. He was back to being one of the better power relievers in the game. When he's at his best, he's getting on top of his slider and finishing it down-and-away to right-handed hitters. It also slips under the bat of left-handed swingers. He may throw 99, but he needs that two-pitch combo to be truly effective. When he has them both working, he's pretty unhittable.

81. Raisel Iglesias, RP, Cincinnati Reds

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #22 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 89 K/67 innings, 34 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 80 K/72 innings, 30 saves

Call me crazy, but, when I look at Raisel Iglesias' name...I think of Zach LaVine from the Chicago Bulls. Yup. Strange, I know. I wrote this about LaVine in my last NBA Top 100 Players article:

This year everything has changed - LaVine's field goal percentage has dropped from 46.7 to 40.9, and I have to blame the Bulls' Analytics Department for that. The Bulls asked LaVine to stop taking mid-range jumpers, which makes absolutely no sense with a player coming off the best season of his life. Why rattle his cage?

And the Reds have done similar things with Raisel. They keep moving him around and tinkering with his role. They are messing with his head and his chances at consistency. In 2015, as a rookie, he was a starter. He started 16 games and posted a respectable 1.14 WHIP. Then, in 2016, he was both. He started 5 games and saved 6. He also worked in middle relief. In '17 and '18, he was pretty much a straight-up closer, and he was fantastic. One of the best relievers in the game. Last year, the Reds bought into that "relief ace" stuff - and it's a nice idea, but not everyone can pull it off. The "relief ace" is your best reliever, but you use him in all different types of situations. Ideally, you are using him in all the high-leverage situations, regardless of the inning. So Raisel worked in a bunch of bases loaded spots. In the end, the point is...leave the kid alone! He has electric, swing-and-miss stuff. Just give him the ball in the 9th and call it a day.

Come back next time for the 70s!

ARCHIVE:

Part 1: Pitchers 90-100

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Frascella's MLB Top 100 Pitchers, Part 1: "What If?" Is Always an Intriguing Question...

Photo Credit: Covering the Corner


Before we get into this brand-new series, I'd like to thank you all for reading my NFL Top 100 Players series. I finally finished up last week, and the final installment includes an archive to all of the previous posts in the anthology.

Now it's time to move on to baseball. This upcoming pitcher series is dedicated to my great friends Mark Rue - who was recently profiled by ABC News as one of the key frontline workers of the coronavirus pandemic - and veteran baseball writer Matt Zylbert, who probably misses baseball more than anyone in the world.

Cheers to my friends, and let's play ball!

Before we get started, here is my ranking criteria:

1. 50% of the weight: My own personal assessment of the pitcher, based on stuff, stats, consistency, ballpark factors and whatever else floats into my mind. This has to get the most weight, otherwise it wouldn't be my list.

2. 20% of the weight: The story of the pitcher. Who is this guy, over time? For example, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are pretty f'n awesome every single year; that has to count for something, right? Conversely, guys like Ken Giles and Emilio Pagan have had fluctuating results. Guys like Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have had dramatically fluctuating results. You get the idea. Who are they, really?

3. 20% of the weight: 2019 Yahoo fantasy baseball ranking. The algorithm combines all statistics in a reasonable way, so this is very helpful. For starting pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts, Quality Starts and Wins. For relief pitchers this will include ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and Saves. This ranking system doesn't include Holds, so I will have to evaluate the middle relievers and setup men on my own.

4. 10% of the weight: 2018 stats, and maybe a little consideration for 2017.

100. Rich Hill, SP, Minnesota Twins

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #78 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 72 K in 58 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 150 K in 132 innings

I'm starting off with some of these "what if?" guys. What if Rich Hill could stay healthy? Per outing, he's been one of the better left-handed starters in the game over the past four seasons. But he's 40 years old. The Twins are taking a reasonable-enough flier on him this season, but how much will they actually get out of him if-and-when he returns from injury? Hill is known for one of the most devastating curveballs in the world, and his numbers have been pretty hard to ignore in recent years. He's a crafty vet who still strikes out more than a batter per inning.

99. Jameson Taillon, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #136 SP; #20 SP in 2018
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.10 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 30 K in 37 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 179 K in 191 innings

It's been a winding road for Mr. Taillon. He was a first-round pick back in 2010, and he's always been accompanied by alotta hype. He is a testicular cancer survivor. Then he rebounded to become one of the best fantasy pitchers in the game in 2018. Now he's out for the upcoming season due to Tommy John surgery and its subsequent recovery period. That's a wild ride, right? I give him credit for his resiliency and mental toughness, and if healthy he'd be hovering around the top 50 or 60.

98. Lance McCullers, Jr., SP, Houston Astros

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: DNP. #46 SP in 2018.
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 142 K in 128 innings
-2017 Notable Stats: 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 132 K in 118 innings

Lance McCullers has wipeout stuff, but he's been in the MLB for five seasons and has never thrown 130+ innings. He's never had more than 22 starts. In terms of pure stuff he's probably right near the top 50, but he needs to show some durability at this point. The Astros need him more than ever with Gerrit Cole out of the picture.

97. Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #135 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 5.29 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 96 K in 80 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 231 K in 192 innings

Carrasco battled leukemia in the recent past and we simply can't know about his strength or long-term sustainability. Like McCullers, he has great stuff but durability is an obvious concern. Carrasco certainly didn't look like himself in '19, so we'll have to wait and see who he is now.

96. Matt Barnes, RP, Boston Red Sox

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #66 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 70 appearances, 110 K in 64 innings, 26 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 62 appearances, 96 K in 61 innings, 25 holds

There's a lot to say about Matt Barnes: (1) This guy takes the ball. He doesn't pout. He doesn't complain about over-usage or a sore arm. He takes the ball consistently and he chucks that thing. A relief commodity like Barnes is extremely difficult to find. (2) He's one of only a few guys to finish in the top 10 in Holds in both of the past two seasons. Reliever results fluctuate, but this guy has been solid. (3) He's one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. I mean, look at those strikeout-to-inning ratios (above). He has a nasty curve and nasty slider. He'll throw any pitch on any count. I like this guy a lot. He's a valuable gamer.

95. Emilio Pagan, RP, San Diego Padres

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #10 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.31 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 96 K/70 innings, 20 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 4.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 63 K/62 innings, 0 saves

Yes, Pagan was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball in '19, but he hadn't recorded a save prior to his breakout season. I will say and write this time and time again...reliever performance tends to fluctuate. You see his numbers from 2018. He was an afterthought at that point. I probably would have ranked him a tad bit higher if he had maintained a closer role, but this year he'll be pitching in front of bona fide stud, Kirby Yates. Of course, if the Padres become a serious contender and Pagan maintains pristine results, his setup role becomes that much more valuable. He could potentially climb my ranks.

94. Hansel Robles, RP, Los Angeles Angels

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #12 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 75 K/72 innings, 23 saves
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.70 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 59 K/56 innings, 2 saves

Who knows what the problem was in New York? Was he overworked? Probably, yeah. Was the media attention and scrutiny a little too distracting? Maybe, yeah. Is Hansel enjoying the relaxed LA atmosphere? It sure looks that way. Robles has always featured pretty strong stuff, and he seems to have put it all together with the Angels. Is he a candidate for regression? I'd certainly say it's possible. A 1.02 WHIP just doesn't seem sustainable, given his history.

93. J.A. Happ, SP, New York Yankees

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #89 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 4.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 140 K/161 innings
-2018 Notable Stats: 3.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 193 K/177 innings

Happ wasn't very good this past season. It's just a simple fact. That was one of the worst seasons of his pretty solid MLB career. But like I wrote earlier...let's consider "the story" of the pitcher. Out of the gate in his career, Happ finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting. In 2016, in arguably the most dangerous offensive division in the game, he finished sixth in the Cy Young voting. In '18 he was an all-star. I mean, we all know...quality lefties are hard to find! Overall, Happ has been a solid lefty and he's currently pitching in a tough ballpark and division.

92. Zach Davies, SP, San Diego Padres

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #70 SP
-2019 Notable Stats: 31 starts, 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
-2018 Notable Stats: 13 starts, 4.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

The poor man's Kyle Hendricks. Davies is a real soft-tosser. He's one of those guys, that when you're watching your favorite team against him, you are screaming why aren't we hitting this shit! at the television. His ball kind of floats in there. He lives off two-seam movement and a little sinking changeup. But, this kid is deceptively good. Miller Park is a pitchers' nightmare, yet Davies sports a 3.91 ERA for his career. Most Brewers starters get rocked. They end up doing "bullpen games" and yanking starters out early. And now, it's close with Happ, but I'm giving Davies the slight edge because he's heading to Petco - the pitchers' dream park. (I mean, who knows with coronavirus, but you get the idea.) I give Davies credit for using his mind and getting professional hitters out with an 84-MPH fastball.

91. Ryan Pressly, RP, Houston Astros

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #40 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 72 K/54 innings, 31 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 101 K/71 innings, 21 holds

What is it with the Rays and the Astros? How, exactly, do they do it? Pressly had a 4.70 ERA for the Twins in 2017, and the next season they gave up on him. To some extent, Pressly explained how the Astros "fixed" him in this very interesting article. (The Rays "fixed" Emilio Pagan in a similar way, I'm sure.) And who really knows at this point, right? How many different ways are the Astros cutting corners as an organization? Anyway, the fact is Pressly is one of the best setup men in the game. He led the majors in Holds this past season. He has a filthy putaway slider, as you can see from his silly strikeout numbers.

90. Seth Lugo, RP, New York Mets

-2019 Yahoo Ranking: #17 RP
-2019 Notable Stats: 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 104 K/80 innings, 6 saves, 21 holds
-2018 Notable Stats: 2.66 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 103 K/101 innings, 3 saves, 11 holds

I was initially going to rank Lugo around No. 96, because I tend to be tough on my Mets. I'm pretty sure I saw MLB Network rank Lugo as the No. 7 overall reliever in the MLB, and my initial reaction was what are these guys smoking? Lugo felt like a one-year fad to me, but he really isn't when you look at his numbers. He was pretty consistent in both '19 and '18. He had a 2.67 ERA in 2016, too. He also has the versatility to work as a starter, middle reliever, setup man or closer. That versatility is why I'm giving him the very minimal edge over Pressly, Robles, Pagan and Barnes. Any way you slice it, we are really splitting hairs, here.

Tune in next time for the 80s!

Friday, May 15, 2020

Frascella's NFL Top 100, Part 10: The Dramatic Conclusion - It's Top 10 Time!

Photo Credit: Kansas City Chiefs


We made it. The Moment of Truth has finally arrived. Who are the top 10 players in the NFL? And who is the best football player in the world? It's time to get those answers.

A little housekeeping, though, first...

Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Donald, Travis Kelce and Nick Bosa led the way in Part 9 of my NFL Top 100 players series. Before we get to our dramatic conclusion, here's my ranking criteria, again:

1. 50% of the weight: "The Eye Test" - my own personal assessment of the player's talent, productivity and overall impact on winning. This has to come first, otherwise it wouldn't be my list. 

2. 20%: Stats. The raw numbers. 

3. 10%: Impact on winning in pressure situations and most importantly, the playoffs. 

4. 10%: The experts over at Pro Football Focus really know their stuff; they examine every single play of the NFL season, and I trust their detailed analyses. I'm giving 10% of the weight to their 2019 Top 101 NFL Players

5. 10%: Recent Pro Bowl selections. Thanks to the coaches, players and fans to their contributions, here. 

Please note: I use logic. The quarterback position is the most influential in all of professional sports, and I absolutely take that into account (PFF does not, in their rankings).

10. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals

-2019 Key Stat: 104 receptions (3rd-most)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #39 overall player

You're going to learn a lot about the way(s) I look at football as we move through my top 10. SPOILER ALERT: My top 10 includes seven quarterbacks and three wide receivers. No other positions. As a frame of reference, Pro Football Focus had 1 tight end, 2 interior defensive linemen, 3 quarterbacks, 1 offensive tackle, 1 offensive guard, 1 edge and 1 wide receiver.

I'm sorry, but...quarterbacks win championships. It's just the nature of the NFL. Yes, a strong offensive line can win you a lot of games (Saints, Eagles), but that's collective. Individual offensive linemen cannot be more valuable than high-quality NFL quarterbacks. Yes, a strong pass rush can get you very far (Giants and Broncos vs. Pats in past years), but again, that's collective. As an individual, T.J. Watt is not more valuable than Lamar Jackson...I'm sorry. (PFF had it that way, though.)

As for Hop, he's been in the pros seven seasons and the Texans made the playoffs four of those years. If you discount his rookie season for growing pains - Houston went 2-14 - he's carried his team to a postseason berth 66% of the time. Now, this says a lot, because Bill O'Brien may not actually know what he's doing. Throughout it all, Hop's been his steady rock and best player (alongside J.J. Watt)...and now he's gone.

So yeah - I didn't like the trade for Houston, at all - but there's one takeaway that hurt Hop on my list...apparently, his attitude sucks. The Texans still should have gotten back better than aging David Johnson; but the overarching circumstances are concerning, nonetheless. We're talking about one of the absolute best players in football, here. Was his attitude really that bad? Who knows. Maybe it's totally on O'Brien. Either way, Hop is competing with two other superstar receivers, here. There's been no question about their dispositions or coachability. Since we're splitting hairs, I'm giving the other two the slight edge. Also, we can't possibly know about his chemistry with Kyler Murray, yet.

9. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

-2019 Key Stat: 1,394 yards (2nd-most)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #25 overall player

A beast. A freak. Commands a double-team essentially all of the time. Can you knock Julio, on an individual level? No, not really. But his Falcons sucked this season. Everyone ahead of him on my list reached the postseason. And again, they are mostly quarterbacks. But if you wanna tell me Julio Jones is the best wide receiver in the NFL, I'm not gonna argue with ya. I'm personally going with the man at No. 5, but there are obvious merits to both sides of the debate. Julio's a monster. We all know this.

8. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

-2019 Key Stat: 27 TDs (5th-most)...in only 11 games!
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #62 overall player

This is where it gets fun. Drew Brees is 41 years old. Last season, he was much better than Tom Brady on paper. (Another SPOILER: Brady's up next on my list.) Brady is 42 years old. But what are we really talkin' about, here? With these two legends, is it really just about regular season stats?

Of course not. Context, baby. It's all about context. We're getting down to the nitty-gritty, now. It's all about the ability to win championships. Can you put the team on your back? Can you make the throws when it matters the most, deep into the postseason?

In this regard, Brees looked totally overmatched this postseason. He only threw for 208 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT vs. the Vikings - in a home game, on the turf, mind you - and most of it came in come-from-behind mode. Many people were saying - in gadget form - quarterback Taysom Hill was a more valuable player for the Saints in that particular playoff game (1-for-1 passing for 50 yards; led the team with 50 rushing yards and caught a TD). We all saw the hesitation in Brees' game. The Vikings' defensive speed had him totally disoriented, and the Saints were huge favorites in the game. So...honestly...can Brees still get it done when it matters?

We don't really know. But let's say I'm being unfair, only looking at one particular postseason game. How about the rest of Brees' postseason career, then? He's been in the playoffs nine times and only has one Super Bowl to show for it. He has 12 interceptions in 16 total postseason games - does that sound like the Brees you know during the regular season?

Like Mark Zuckerberg says to the Winklevi in The Social Network..."if you guys were the inventors of Facebook...you would have invented Facebook." Meaning, if Drew Brees were Tom Brady...he'd have more than one Super Bowl to show for his Hall of Fame career. But he doesn't. Brady has always been steadier and more lethal under the utmost pressure. Since Brees and Brady are both inching toward retirement, I gotta give Brady the nod for his balls. He's a Jordan-esque legend.

7. Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Bucs

-2019 Key Stat: 4,057 yds; 24/8 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Here he is...the greatest postseason player of all time, and probably the greatest football player of all time. Period.

But hey man, I'm realistic - if everything were based on the past, he'd be No. 1 on my list. Yet again, we have to consider the overall context. I mean, think about it...Tom Brady didn't make the Pro Bowl this past season. Can you imagine that? Reputation absolutely comes into play with Pro Bowl selections, and he still didn't make it (he'd made it the previous 10 seasons in a row). That means he's taken a step back. The raw numbers indicate the same conclusion.

And let's be fair to Brees...Brady didn't look good in his most recent playoff game, either. In fact, his numbers were eerily similar (209 yards, 1 pick). But if both guys are postseason question marks going forward, I'm going with Brady. He's proven himself, time and time again. Just think about what he accomplished in New England. We could just pencil them in for a division title every single year.

How about this past season? That was a weak Patriots' team. Gronk was already gone. Superstar Chandler Jones - No. 25 on my list - had already been gone a handful of years. The Sanu trade didn't work out (he looked finished). The Josh Gordon experiment didn't work out. N'Keal Harry wasn't ready, yet. Sony Michel didn't become the stud New England expected. How the hell did the Patriots go 12-4 and win the AFC East, again?

Of course, Belichick and a solid defense deserve their due credit. There's no denying that fact. But again...there's Brady presence. Can you really measure that? Can you imagine your confidence, if Tom Brady was your leader? It can't only be about the numbers when it comes to Tom Terrific. You have to dig a little deeper. You have to look a little harder.

When you read between the lines, the message screams, this guy is a BOSS!

6. Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans

-2019 Key Stat: 4,265 total yds; 26/12 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #87 overall player

Probably the most difficult guy to rank in this top 10. I'll say the same thing about the next player on my list...what came first, the chicken or the egg? Meaning, who is better and more important, Hopkins or Watson? Who makes the other? Who gets the individual edge? I'm going with Watson for these two reasons: (1) He's a quarterback and Hop is a wide receiver; (2) There haven't been any questions about Watson's attitude or leadership. He's a top-notch clubhouse guy. But again, it's splitting hairs. You could say, Hopkins already flashed incredible ability before the Texans had Watson. That's a fair way of looking at it, too.

What about the next aspect of the debate...how do you rank Brees, Brady and Watson? Why does Watson get the very slight edge at this point?

Well, obviously, Brady and Brees are heading toward retirement. Watson's fresh legs certainly help. He can create a lot more when plays break down. So really, that goes without saying. But the key item is playoff performance. His Texans were down 16-0 to the Bills, and they looked to be dead in the water. Lifeless. But Deshaun put the team on his back, with everything on the line. Remember this epic play for the ages?

And that's exactly who Deshaun is. He's a battler. A grinder. He had a championship pedigree in college, as well. So let's just look at it simply...both Brees and Brady looked limited in their most recent playoff games, while Deshaun was able to dig his team out of the rubble. He also threw for 388 yards against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs, with two passing touchdowns, one rushing TD and no interceptions. So yeah, his playoff stock is looking pretty strong. When in doubt, go with the fresh legs.

5. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

-2019 Key Stat: 1,725 yards (#1) and 149 rec (#1)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #8 overall player

Like I mentioned with Deshaun and Hop...who comes first here, MT or Brees? At this point, within the Saints' offense, who is the guy?

To me, anyway you slice it, Michael Thomas is the best wide receiver in the world right now. He is THE guy. You wanna go to the numbers? He just caught 149 passes in a single season; that's the NFL record. Second place? Christian McCaffrey with 116 receptions - 33 behind the pace! Second-best receiver? Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins, both with 104 receptions - FORTY-FIVE behind Thomas...simply incredible! Talk about embarrassing the field. A man among men.

You wanna talk yards? Thomas had 1,725...331 more than second-place Julio Jones. Imagine crushing Julio like that? And he's pretty much a receiving god. Turning a god into a mere mortal, there.

You wanna go to The Eye Test? What can't Thomas do out there? His mechanics are flawless. The ball sticks to his hands. He always made himself available to Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Hill, etc. You gotta love that 6'3" target with long arms, too. MT's the whole package.

4. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

-2019 Key Stat: 113.3 QB rating/4,333 total yards (MVP)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #7 overall player

Perhaps the most controversial ranking of all?

There are two obvious camps out there: (1) Lamar Jackson is the reigning MVP of the NFL, and he demolished all (well, most) comers last season. He's the best and most electric football player in the world right now. Or (2) Jackson hasn't proven shit in the playoffs. His Ravens have flopped out in embarrassing fashion. Do we know who he really is, yet?

And there's merit to both sides, right? As usual, I land somewhere in the middle. I totally understand both perspectives. But, I mean, let's really look at those numbers:

2019/20 Regular season: 113.3 QB rating, 66.1% completion rate, 36/6 TD to INT
2019/20 Playoffs: 63.2 QB rating, 52.5% completion rate, 1/2 TD to INT

2018/19 Regular season: 84.5 QB rating, 58.2% completion rate
2018/19 Playoffs: 78.8 QB rating, 48.3% completion rate

Now, a Jackson lover will say...but those Playoff stats are based on single games! And to that I would say, well, yeah...because the Ravens lost. If he played better, maybe they would have won. And that's not being cold. That's just being real. That's the reality. Lamar didn't play well, and his team lost.

So yeah, I'll believe it when I see it. In my top three, they've already proven they can close the deal. You gotta deliver when it matters the most.

3. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

-2019 Key Stat: 26/4 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #83 overall player

Speaking of controversy...Aaron Rodgers always seems to be in the middle of it. Whether it's off the field - is Rodgers a closeted gay man? - on the field (ignoring his coach's playcalls) or dealing with the front office, A-Rod 2.0 always seems to rub people the wrong way. He's not the easiest guy to get along with, apparently.

And yeah, that is an issue when it comes to leadership. In terms of leading the men around him in an effective way; sure, I would take Brees, Brady, Watson and Jackson over him (and numbers 1 and 2 on my list, forthcoming).

But the quarterback position isn't only about leadership. In actuality, in a cutthroat business like the NFL, it's really just about results. And how are these results?

-In 2011, Rodgers led his Packers to a Super Bowl victory and was named MVP of the game. He was also MVP of the regular season that year.

-He won MVP of the league again in 2014.

-He is the highest-rated quarterback in NFL history (102.4). As a frame of reference, Brees is 98.4, Brady is 97.0 and Peyton Manning is 96.5.

-He is an eight-time Pro Bowler.

-In the past two seasons, he threw a total of 1,166 passes...which resulted in only six interceptions! Like, what? That is unheard of. Talk about protecting the ball and protecting possessions. And of course, he just led the Pack to another NFC Championship Game.

So yeah, at 36 years old, Aaron Rodgers isn't really slowing down. He's an all-time great.

2. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks

-2019 Key Stat: 106.3 QB rating; 31/5 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #3 overall player

Few, if any, have done more with less than Russell Wilson. For years, everything hinged on him. The Seahawks' offensive line was entirely unable to pass-block. Wilson was running for his life most of the time. And the Seahawks never had a bona fide No. 1 receiver. Russ was a magician making amazing things happen.

Now, things are much better with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. These are real receivers. These are legitimate options. And look at the difference:

-2016 (pre-weapons): 92.6 QB rating (worst of his career), 11 interceptions (most of his career)
-2019 (with weapons): 106.3 QB rating, 5 interceptions (least of his career)

So yeah, this shit matters. Russell Wilson is who he is, but ya gotta put some able bodies around him. Now that Seattle finally has - on the offensive side of the ball - Russ has established himself as the second-best all-around quarterback in the universe (or the best, if you ask Pro Football Focus).

1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

-2019 Key Stat: 4,031 yds in 14 games; 26/5 TD-INT
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #4 overall player

I wish Twitter made it easier to go back and find old tweets.

I've been comparing Pat Mahomes to Michael Jordan since the 5th start of his NFL career (you remember this, vs. the Broncos?).

"The Magic" is undefinable. Actually, Russell Wilson has "The Magic", too. But not to this extent. Not to Patty Mahomes' extent.

He's special. He's one-of-a-kind...either you see it, or you don't. I'd say it's pretty hard to miss at this point. The worst I've ever seen him play was the Super Bowl...and he won Super Bowl MVP. LOL, right?

I'm pretty sure we saw him tear his ACL this season...then he was back just a few games later, then he was leading his Chiefs to a Super Bowl title. It was rightfully referred to as a "miracle recovery" - maybe the kid can walk on water, too.

Nothing would surprise me at this point. Pat Mahomes is the best in the world. Hands down.

ARCHIVE:

Don't forget to look back and see how we got to this point!

Part 9, Players 11-20

Part 8, Players 21-30

Part 7, Players 31-40

Part 6, Players 41-50

Part 5, Players 51-59

Part 4, Players 60-69

Part 3, Players 70-79

Part 2, Players 80-89

Part 1, Players 90-100

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Frascella's NFL Top 100, Part 9: Top 20 Time. Superstar Territory...

Photo Credit: Niner Noise


It's time for controversy. Feelings are gonna get hurt. There will be snubs in my top 20.

T.J. Watt, Nick Chubb, Joey Bosa and Mike Evans led the way in Part 8 of my NFL Top 100 series. Before we get to Part 9, here's my ranking criteria, again:

1. 50% of the weight: "The Eye Test" - my own personal assessment of the player's talent, productivity and overall impact on winning. This has to come first, otherwise it wouldn't be my list. 

2. 20%: Stats. The raw numbers. 

3. 10%: Impact on winning in pressure situations and most importantly, the playoffs. 

4. 10%: The experts over at Pro Football Focus really know their stuff; they examine every single play of the NFL season, and I trust their detailed analyses. I'm giving 10% of the weight to their 2019 Top 101 NFL Players

5. 10%: Recent Pro Bowl selections. Thanks to the coaches, players and fans to their contributions, here. 

Please note: I use logic. The quarterback position is the most influential in all of professional sports, and I absolutely take that into account (PFF does not, in their rankings).

20. George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers

-2019 Key Stat: 7.3 YAC (best in the game)/85 receptions (3rd-best TE)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #1 overall player

Yup, you're reading that correctly...Pro Football Focus ranked George Kittle as the No. 1 football player in the world. Seems a bit extreme to me, but I know what they're getting at: Kittle impacts the game in every possible way. We all know about his catch-and-run ability at this point, but he's also a phenomenal blocker and all-around leader on a strong 49ers' team. He truly is the total package. I can't rank him as my No. 1 overall player, but I think it's entirely fair to squeeze him into my top 20. He's physical; he's a tone-setter and he's a fun guy to watch in action. He should be a force for a long time to come.

19. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

-2019 Key Stat: 1,540 rushing yds (most in the game)/446 playoff yds (also the most)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #65 overall player

Does it get anymore dominant than that? Most rushing yards in the regular season and the playoffs? Henry was a horse. A beast. He pounded both the Patriots and Ravens into submission in the postseason. 34 carries for 182 yards vs. the Pats, and 30 carries for 195 yards vs. the heavily-favored Ravens. Can you imagine that? I remember throughout the second half of the regular season I was saying and writing, wow, this three-horse race between the Ravens, Chiefs and Patriots is going to be really interesting in the AFC. I can't wait. Yeah, um, Derrick Henry wasn't havin' that. He stomped all over those plans and expectations. He put together one of the best pure rushing seasons we will ever see.

18. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

-2019 Key Stat: 860 yds/7 TDs in just 12 games
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #67 overall player

Look at the respect this speed demon gets...both the Pro Bowl voters and Pro Football Focus consider games played and health when making their selections. And yet, there he was. Tyreek was again selected as a Pro Bowler despite playing in just 12 regular season games, and he made the PFF Top 101 over excellent receivers who played all 16 games, like Jarvis Landry, Julian Edelman, Larry Fitzgerald, Kenny Golladay (who led all WRs in TDs), Odell Beckham Jr. and Keenan Allen. That's how good Tyreek is. That's how impactful he is. Not too long ago, I tweeted this:
And yeah, I'm ranking 'Reek 18th here, but I still believe what I wrote. If you wanted to rank Hill No. 2 overall, I wouldn't put up a fight. I mean, when you get a chance, just watch what this guy does to opposing defenses. I'm only going with the conservative ranking here because Reid, Bieniemy, Mahomes and Kelce also deserve credit for the Chiefs' tremendous offensive success. It's a total team effort, for sure.

17. Khalil Mack, Edge, Chicago Bears

-2019 Key Stat: 70 QB pressures
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #48 overall player

I try not to have too much recency bias. Mack was the (defensive) talk of the league in 2018, and his Bears were one of the surprise, feel-good stories of the season. But the Bears and Mitchell Trubisky fell off a cliff in '19, and maybe that hindered Mack's production just a bit? We're all human. Maybe he took a few extra plays off, here and there. I wrote something similar about Von Miller, earlier in my Top 100 series. Regardless, obviously, Mack's 70 pressures were up there with the most in the game. The guy's an absolute monster. A bona fide matchup nightmare.

16. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

-2019 Key Stat: 127 targets, 83 rec & 997 yds in just 12 games
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #33 overall player

Per game, he was probably the best and most productive wide receiver in the NFL. Davante was a busy man last season. Aaron Rodgers didn't have alotta trust in his other receiving options. When Davante was healthy enough to play, he was getting peppered with a constant barrage of targets, and he responded quite well. You know how hard it is to catch 83 balls in 12 games when the opposing D knows the ball is going to you the vast majority of the time? It's near impossible. That's just a testament to Davante's incredible route-running ability. He's an all-around machine at the wide receiver position. It's just...it's so close with Michael Thomas, Julio and Hop that I have to go with games played when splitting hairs.

15. Nick Bosa, Edge, San Francisco 49ers

-2019 Key Stat: Most QB pressures ever by a rookie
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Was still in college.
-Pro Football Focus: #28 overall player

Bosa and No. 12 on my list were the best defensive players I watched during the 2019 season. Sure, it helps when you deliver on the hype - Nick was the second overall pick in the '19 Draft - but this wasn't a case of, oh, everyone says this kid is good, so every time he makes a good play we're going to over-hype him. You know what I mean by that? Like, I feel like Andrew Luck always got that type of treatment. When he did something well, the pundits were like see, that's the Luck we've expected from the very beginning. But if he did something poorly, it got ignored. Anyway, I digress. That's not the case with Bosa. He's one of the primary reasons the 49ers went from 4-12 to near Super Bowl champion. He's that good, and that impactful. I'm not sure I've ever seen a better rookie at any position. Fast, strong, explosive, relentless...Nick Bosa is the real deal.

14. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

-2019 Key Stat: 97 rec, 1,229 yds (both most at tight end)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #18 overall player

When it comes to impact on the Chiefs' success, we're splitting hairs between Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Honestly, I could go either way. I'm easily swayed in this debate. But I'm going Kelce here, because he played 16 games and 'Reek only played 12. How about Kelce's consistency across the board? He's played 16 games in five out of the past six seasons. The only year he played less than 16 (2017), he was a real slacker and played in only 15. He's been a Pro Bowler five seasons in a row. He's been over 1,000 yards four seasons in a row. He's been over 80 receptions four seasons in a row. What more can you ask from a tight end? Kelce isn't as good a blocker as Kittle, but he's still smart and solid. To sum it up...Kelce's a superstar. The best at his position.

13. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

-2019 Key Stat: 2,392 total yards & 19 TDs (um...what?)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. (Wait...what?)
-Pro Football Focus: #24 overall player

Wait, let me back up a second, here...Christian McCaffrey wasn't a Pro Bowler two years ago? He had 1,965 total yards and 13 touchdowns...is that the biggest snub, ever? That makes me furious. Anyway, clearly, this guy is already one of the greatest fantasy football assets of all time. He is the ultimate stat-stuffer. He's like Marshall Faulk on hyper-drive. But "CMC" was the best fantasy player over the past couple of seasons, and these were the Panthers' records: 7-9 and 5-11. They actually got worse, as CMC's production improved. And this brings us back to the same ole discussion...just how important is the running back position? I'm not gonna go down the rabbit hole again, because I already discussed this in this installment of my Top 100. Yeah, Christian McCaffrey is probably a top-10 player in the NFL, but my rankings incorporate impact on winning. Maybe it's really difficult to win when your best player is your running back; or semantically, when your offense is built around your running back. The Titans pulled it off this past season, but the Browns (Chubb), Bengals (Mixon), Jaguars (Fournette), Raiders (Jacobs), Giants (Barkley) and Cowboys (Elliott) did not. I'm not likin' those odds.

12. Stephon Gilmore, CB, New England Patriots

-2019 Key Stat: 6 INTs (most in the game)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #22 overall player

My job is really easy when the stats match up with The Eye Test. Gilmore was the best defensive player I saw last season, and the numbers help to support that, as he led the NFL in interceptions. There are four types of corners in my opinion: (1) Pure cover corners, (2) playmakers/gamblers, (3) guys that do neither particularly well and (4) guys that do both well. Category 4 is basically impossible to find. Obviously...that's Gilmore. He can play press coverage and go step-for-step with the best. He can hang back, then close quickly on the ball for a pick. He's physical and doesn't back down, but he's also extremely fast. He does it all. He is - by far- the best player on the world-famous Patriots heading into the 2020/21 NFL season.

11. Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams

-2019 Key Stat: 80 pressures (#1 for DT)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-Pro Football Focus: #2 overall player

Aaron Donald is the best defensive player in the world. This is just something we know...like...McCaffrey is the best fantasy player. Jerry Rice is the greatest receiver of all time. Tom Brady is the best playoff quarterback of all time. These are just things we know about football. But, this past season, I had Gilmore and Nick Bosa as my top two defensive players. I had Donald third. Regardless, I'm not gonna knock him off his pedestal. No one has EVER gotten pressure from the interior like him. He is truly one of a kind.

Tune in next time...when pressure busts pipes in my top 10!!

ARCHIVE:

Part 8, Players 21-30

Part 7, Players 31-40

Part 6, Players 41-50

Part 5, Players 51-59

Part 4, Players 60-69

Part 3, Players 70-79

Part 2, Players 80-89

Part 1, Players 90-100