When it comes to NFL survivor (aka "suicide") pools, I'm not the kind of strategist who saves his big guns for last. Why? Because I don't want to be one of the people thinking, "Why did I take the crappy Cleveland Browns in Week 1?"
If I'm going down, I'm going with a bang. I took the Patriots in Week 1 and the Packers this past weekend (got a little interesting) and here we are, still alive for Week 3.
Here are the three games I'm mulling over:
Game #1: Baltimore Ravens @ St. Louis Rams
The pick: Ravens
After the impressive display we saw against the Steelers in the opener, the Ravens aren't going to fall to 1-2, are they?
Their Week 2 loss in Tennessee was a bit of a stunner, but the Titans are in much better shape than the Rams right now. St. Louis is without their RB1 Steven Jackson and WR1 Danny Amendola. An offense that was average (or slightly above) is now one of the least prolific in the league.
The Ravens' vaunted defense should cause fits for Sam Bradford without the balance of a rushing attack and his most frequent target.
In addition, after an underwhelming performance against the Titans, the Ravens' offense -- led by Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin -- should have an easier time against the Rams.
The concern: It's a road game for the Ravens. They looked awesome at home in Week 1, and pretty terrible the following week on the road. And yet, the Rams are in such bad shape that I'm not really too concerned.
Game #2: New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
The pick: Jets
I always feel comfortable with my Jets against the mediocre-to-weak teams, and that applies here -- for the most part.
Two Raiders, in particular, make me nervous. One is RB1 Darren McFadden, who is emerging as one of the best and most dynamic offensive players in the NFL.
The other, surprisingly, is rookie WR Denarius Moore. He's an explosive talent, and I don't like that there's a lack of game film on him at the NFL level. Darrelle Revis won't have any trouble with Moore, but Antonio Cromartie sometimes gets exposed when Rex Ryan tinkers with the match-ups.
Outside of those two players, I'm not too worried about selecting the Jets. The Bills marched down the field with ease against the Raiders D, so the Jets' offense should find similar results.
QB Jason Campbell is known for keeping his teams in games, but the Jets should be a class above the Raiders in this one.
The concern: Young, electric playmakers in the silver and black.
Game #3: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
The pick: Steelers
A third road game; what a conundrum. Without Peyton Manning it's looking like the Colts are definitely one of the worst teams in the NFL. That being said, with Kerry Collins at the helm and an offense in disarray, I can't see the Colts having much success against the Steelers' talented, veteran defense.
Pittsburgh's offense should also thrive against the Colts' oft-embarrassing defense. This is a superb match-up for RB1 Rashard Mendenhall. Isaac Redman could also make an impact in limited work.
The concern: Ben Roethlisberger's health. If he's 90 percent or better, it should be an easy victory for the Steelers. If he's in the 80s or worse, taking them is an unnecessary risk.
The Decision
I'm going with the Ravens over the Rams, unless Steven Jackson is active; that may change things. For now it's the Ravens.
Thoughts?
UPDATE: I'm going off the list with the Chargers hosting the depleted Chiefs. Steven Jackson is expected to play, the Raiders make me nervous, and Big Ben's health is still a bit of a mystery. Philip Rivers and Vincent Jackson, it is.
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