Earlier this week I posed the question, "Is Kerry Collins a Hall of Famer?"
Friends and acquaintances read the post, and most agreed that Collins didn't have much of a chance. They came to that conclusion despite the fact that he's 10th on the all-time passing yardage list, ahead of megastars like Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas and Y.A. Tittle.
Their counterargument was that Collins' cumulative statistics were merely a product of longevity. And, for the most part, there is validity to that argument. But that raised some questions...
Is longevity a positive or negative when it comes to Hall of Fame voting?
Should a player be rewarded for compiling stats over time, or should they be punished for lacking a clear prime?
These questions led us away from the NFL, and over to the MLB. As soon as the word "longevity" gets tossed around, it's hardly surprising when Jamie Moyer's name gets thrown into the mix.
Moyer pitched in 24 Major League seasons, spending time with the Cubs, Rangers, Cardinals, Orioles, Red Sox, Mariners and Phillies. Although he had already been in the bigs for a decade, Moyer's best and most notable seasons began in 1997 with the Mariners, and concluded in 2005.
Voters may be impressed by Moyer's obvious ability to adapt and improve during The Steroid Era. While other starters were taking it on the chin and scratching their heads, Moyer was tinkering with his repertoire and strategy. The results were more than admirable.
Moyer's career record is 267-204, with a 4.24 ERA, 2,405 strikeouts and 4,020 innings pitched. As you can see, that statistical set is a difficult one to analyze.
His 267 wins are good for 36th all time, with 26 of the 35 pitchers ahead already in the Hall of Fame. In addition, five other would-be Hall of Famers are not yet eligible for induction: Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina.
Clemens will likely be rejected because of steroids and perjury; nonetheless, few would say that "The Rocket" wasn't a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher. Eliminate Clemens and 30 of the 35 pitchers ahead of Moyer will still be in the Hall of Fame.
But the detractors, like my friends, will come back with, "A 4.24 ERA isn't Hall of Fame worthy, and 2,405 strikeouts is not an impressive total over 24 years."
Clearly, there's no denying their response. A 4.24 ERA is hardly sparkling. 2,405 strikeouts puts Moyer at a little over 100 per season. When my friends (like many others) think of Hall of Famers, they think of lights out, dominant pitchers who embarrassed opposing hitters in their primes.
Well, that's not quite Jamie Moyer.
However, they were saying that there is "no chance" he gets elected to The Hall. Now, I'm not saying he's a lock -- not by any stretch of the imagination -- but I do believe that Moyer has a 50 to 60 percent chance of induction. Saying there's "no chance" is a clear case of narrow-mindedness.
In the era of pitch counts and five-man rotations, Moyer's 267 wins are going to stand out when he's on the ballot for the fourth, fifth or sixth time. After the pitching superstars of his era get elected (Pedro Martinez, Johnson, Maddux, Glavine, John Smoltz, Mussina and Curt Schilling), Moyer's prospects will improve due to his win total, winning percentage, and 15 seasons of double-digit wins.
Considering the evolution of the game, many believe that 300 wins will be an impossible achievement for starting pitchers of the future, and even those of the present. With that in mind, if pitcher usage trends continue, it's reasonable to assume that Moyer's 267 wins will stick in the top five or 10 for the rest of baseball history.
Meaning, Moyer retired after the 2010 season -- from then on, only a few pitchers who retire will ever crack that win total. That has to be worth something.
In the end, we know Moyer isn't a lock. But saying he doesn't have a chance?
That's just foolish.
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