Sunday, August 4, 2019

A Year in Review, Part II: Why the Mets Haven't Reached Their Full Potential



After winning seven consecutive games and converting from sellers to buyers overnight, the Mets finally lost a game Friday, falling 8-4 to Starling Marte (3-run homer) and six innings of decent work from the Pirates' Trevor Williams (3 runs, 4th win).

But they bounced back quickly last night, behind a MONSTER performance from Wilson Ramos, who went 4-for-5 with a home run and six RBI. Marcus Stroman was shaky in his Mets' debut, but Justin Wilson picked up the win in relief, as New York beat Pittsburgh 7-5. With eight wins in their last 10, the Mets are currently four games back in the NL Wild Card race.

In Volume I of my Mets' season in review, I used my preseason tweets at GM Brodie Van Wagenen (@GMBVW) to summarize events and make key realizations about the Mets' sub-optimally managed roster. Some quick takeaways:

1. Manny Machado ($30 million), D.J. LeMahieu ($12 mil) and Craig Kimbrel ($10 mil) are making $52 million combined this season; that compared to Jed Lowrie ($10 mil), Jeurys Familia ($8 mil), Robinson Cano ($24 million) and Ramos ($8 million) who are making $50 million total. Van Wagenen should have had long-term interest in Machado, and the Wilpons should have allowed him to spend.

2. The Mets could have easily kept their three elite prospects - Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay - and fielded a better roster than the one they have now.

3. Moves I suggested in tweets that Brodie "copied": (1) Didn't start Pete Alonso in the minors, the way Sandy Alderson did; (2) Signed Ramos; (3) Signed Lowrie; (4) Didn't trade Noah Syndergaard; (5) Didn't include Jeff McNeil in the Cano trade and (6) Didn't trade Amed Rosario in a package for J.T. Realmuto. Coincidences, I'm sure.

Okay, let's get into my tweets from the regular season...
THE VERDICT? False hope.

That's a tweet from a better time - a time where Cano was hitting .1000 with an exciting homer off (arguably) the best pitcher of his generation. Now, many months later, Cano is hitting .245 with a laughable .289 OBP...and still hitting cleanup! And oh yeah, he only has nine homers since then, three of which came in one game against the Padres.

Brodie and his front office team simply didn't realize what they had in McNeil (.334 BA, leading the league) at second base; if they did, I'm sure they would have thought twice about bringing in a washed-up, 36-year old bum at the same position.

THE VERDICT? Losing organizations rest their young players too often.

This drove me nuts, all throughout the first half of the season. Alonso waited patiently for his turn in the big leagues, then opened the season going 3-for-4 in game two, 2-for-4 in game three and homering in game four. Then he's "resting" in game five? A 24-year old needs to rest that early in the season? It's just utter nonsense. This speaks to the title of my piece, as a way Brodie and Mickey Callaway held this club back from where it should have been.

As a frame of reference, the Atlanta Braves won the NL East last season and Freddie Freeman - their franchise player, then 28 years old - played all 162 games. The Dodgers won the NL and Cody Bellinger played all 162 games. The Mets have completely mishandled playing time throughout this up-and-down season.

The second tweet speaks to another recurring issue - pre-planning moves without any room for adjustments. Brodie and Mickey managed this club like robots - this is our plan, and we're stickin' to it. Doesn't matter if the plan sucks and is costing us victories. The Astros, Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox don't do that - the elite organizations are always adjusting in real time. A baseball season is a living, breathing, evolving organism. "The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry."

THE VERDICT? Mickey isn't smart enough to become a quality MLB manager.

Have you ever heard him speak in interviews? Have you ever heard him try to come up with "coachspeak" on the spot? Have you ever seen him try to manage his bullpen in a tight game? Have you ever seen him...bat his team out of order??

Like I said, Mickey Callaway is a nice guy. He's a "baseball guy," generally speaking. But he's not Joe Maddon, Terry Francona, A.J. Hinch, Dave Roberts, or even an up-and-coming skipper like Aaron Boone, Rocco Baldelli, Alex Cora or Chris Woodward. He's none of those guys. Mickey simply doesn't have the capacity.

One of the biggest, most obvious issues is that he's unable to evaluate and rank the talent on his own roster. As a big-league manager, you need to know your players' strengths and weaknesses like the back of your hand. Mickey doesn't have the skillset to excel in this position.
THE VERDICT? I was wrong...but the Wilpons still found a way to hurt Mets fans.

Vargas ended up being one of the Mets' best and most consistent starting pitchers, with a 3.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year. But then, in another embarrassing inside job, Brodie traded him to the division-rival Phillies for the Wilpons' family friend, minor league catcher Austin Bossart.

One would think, in the middle of a supposed playoff race with one of the worst bullpens in professional baseball history, that you'd want to keep Vargas and use him as a reliever. That would seem to provide more value than a kid who is hitting .205...two levels below the major leagues. Instead, this was another team-killing salary dump by the stingy Wilpons.



THE VERDICT? Washed-up veterans have cost the Mets a playoff spot.

Like Callaway, Todd Frazier is a nice guy. Here's a happy photo of us together. I have absolutely nothing against him personally, but he's 33 years old and hitting .236. Last year he hit .213. The year before that, he also hit .213. As I tweeted directly to Brodie throughout the season, the guy is finished. He kills the club.

Davis, on the other hand, is 26 years old and batting .294. I saw this coming way back on May 1 - the Mets would have won more games with Davis playing every day, and Frazier serving as a sort of veteran bench coach. (Aside, Brodie's low-cost signing of Davis is probably his best move to date.)

The point is...the lineup matters. Using the optimal everyday players matters. Brodie and Mickey needed to identify their core of Alonso, McNeil, Michael Conforto, Rosario, Davis and Dominic Smith, then run with it. Too much playing time, and too many losses, wasted on detrimental vets like Cano, Frazier, Carlos Gomez and Juan Lagares. All of these little things matter. The Mets left too many wins on the table - for no good reason at all.

Speaking of Lagares, Gomez and other bums...




THE VERDICT? I did everything I possibly could to get Brodie and Mickey to manage properly.

Again, I can't say it enough - Alonso, McNeil, Conforto, Rosario, Davis and Smith. That was, and is, the true core of the 2019 Mets' offense. Brodie and Mickey simply didn't realize. Too much "resting" of those guys. Too much platooning. Not enough talent evaluating or cutthroat managing. Play for the win every day. Forget about Keon Broxton, Lagares, Frazier and Gomez. YUCK.



THE VERDICT? The same as Volume I...Brodie is influenced by fan tweets.

I finally got him to take Rosario seriously as a hitter. Look at Rosario's steady improvement, year over year: from .248 to .256 to .281 in batting average. From .271 to .295 to .322 in on-base percentage. From 4 to 9 to 11 in homers (though his rookie stint was only 46 games).

The kid can hit! And he's rapidly improving. And...he's still just 23 years old. Amed's development is extremely encouraging for Mets fans.



THE VERDICT? The Mets like dropping good players and getting nothing for them.

As we discussed in Volume I, d'Arnaud has been one of the Rays' most valuable players, and they have 10 more wins than the Mets. This Mets' roster had so much potential. Sign Machado and Kimbrel, keep d'Arnaud, keep Kelenic, Dunn and Kay for the future. This was a very real possibility, if funds were managed properly:

1. Jeff McNeil - RF
2. Michael Conforto - CF
3. Pete Alonso - 1B
4. Manny Machado - SS
5. Travis d'Arnaud - C
6. J.D. Davis - 3B
7. Dom Smith - RF
8. Amed Rosario - 2B

No dead weight playing time from Cano, Lagares, Frazier, Gomez or Broxton. AND you're set up for the future with Kelenic, Dunn and Kay.



THE VERDICT? Stroman should be good in the NL...but he isn't what you think he is.

Brodie wrote of him, "We were able to add Marcus Stroman, one of the best pitchers in baseball."

BAAAAAAMP, wrong!

Stroman has a 3.77 lifetime ERA - that is not elite. Last year with the Jays he had an UGLY 5.54 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He was actually one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

This season has been an entirely different story, as Stroman has sparkled with a 3.07 ERA and a well-deserved trip to the All-Star Game. But keep looking back. He's up and down. 4.37 ERA in '16, 3.65 ERA in '14. The fluctuation comes from the fact that Stroman pitches to contact. In six seasons, he's never struck out a batter per inning, which is generally a good barometer of a pitcher's swing-and-miss stuff. When you pitch to contact, results can vary.

Yesterday I said to Steve Summer, Mark Rue and Jamie Garland - fellow Mets superfans - that Stroman is somewhat similar to Vargas; the latter was an all-star in '17 with 18 wins, then ballooned to a 5.77 ERA in '18 before coming back down to 3.93 this year. Stroman's reputation belies his actual results. How much of an upgrade do the Mets really have, here?


THE VERDICT? The Mets continue to shoot themselves in the foot. Cano should be batting 7th or 8th.

What more can I say, here? Davis and Rosario need more respect in this lineup. Cano needs to bat where his putrid numbers indicate he should bat. Again, Brodie and Mickey not making the necessary adjustments.


THE VERDICT? That pretty much sums it up, doesn't it?

This is a fitting way to wrap up, as the Mets could easily have 60-70 wins right now, as opposed to the 54 they actually have. It all comes down to management - identifying your key assets and leaning on them. Maximizing the talent on your roster. Using your resources to their fullest possible extent.

So what's the good news, Mets fans?

We're still only four games out. Crazier things have happened.

Ugh...Alonso is "resting" today. Nevermind.
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Thursday, August 1, 2019

A Year in Review, Part I: The Mets' Frenzied Season in 11 Fro Tweets



Believe it or not, the New York Mets didn't trade Noah "Thor" Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler at Wednesday's MLB trade deadline.

Believe it or not, Brodie Van Wagenen and Mickey Callaway's Mets have won seven games in a row.

Believe it or not, these Mets are goin' for it. Very recently considered a laughingstock, they are now just four games back in the NL Wild Card race.

Let's take a look at how we got here, via 11 of my (typically) passionate tweets:

THE VERDICT? Accurate.

Both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado lingered on the free agent market before finally signing with the Phillies and Padres, respectively, but the Mets were never serious players for either. Some Harper to the Mets rumors did pop up, but they never had any real steam. The same goes for both Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, who sat there, available, all the way into regular season play.

Other organizations might look at a young, offensive core of Peter Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith and think, wow, we might just be a superstar or two away from being serious contenders. Machado, who recently turned just 27, seemed like an awfully good fit, with Alonso, McNeil and Rosario lightly penciled into the other infield slots. Machado has displayed gorgeous glove work at both 3B and SS, which would have been particularly helpful given Rosario's defensive deficiencies at short. Rosario could have moved to, 2B, 3B or the outfield, or Machado could have helped him along - mentally and physically - at short.

Machado, who currently has 26 HR and 206 TB despite opting to play his home games in a pitcher-friendly park, would have made for a near-perfect franchise player in his prime.

Other organizations might look at a promising core of starting pitchers like Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler and Steven Matz and think, wow, we should probably spend some money on quality relief pitching to complement our starters. Instead, Kimbrel - one of the greatest closers in the history of the game - remained unsigned until June 7, when the Mets' bullpen was already considered a league-wide laughingstock.

What could have been, without giving up top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay in future trades (and without the unbearable albatross, Robinson Cano)...AND without giving away Travis d'Arnaud (13 HR, 44 RBI in just 202 AB) for nothing...AND without dumping unnecessary payroll on Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie:

1. Jeff McNeil - OF or 2B
2. Michael Conforto - OF
3. Peter Alonso - 1B
4. Manny Machado - SS
5. Travis d'Arnaud - C
6. Amed Rosario - 2B or OF
7. Brandon Nimmo or Dominic Smith - OF
8. Todd Frazier - 3B

And that's keeping Kelenic, Dunn and Kay, and without making any subsequent moves (which would have happened, had this scenario played out). Starting pitching:

1. Jacob deGrom
2. Noah Syndergaard
3. Dallas Keuchel
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Steven Matz

This version of the club has the Mets in much better shape for the future.

In fairness, the Wilpons deserve just as much blame as Brodie here - or more - because their unwillingness to sign primetime free agents forces their GMs to pursue other avenues.

THE VERDICT? Probably accurate, but I'll be reasonable - let's give Brodie a little more time.

What we like about Brodie, so far:

1. He's not complacent. He wants to make an impact. This in comparison to Sandy Alderson, whose "big" acquisitions one recent offseason were Frazier, Jason Vargas and Anthony Swarzak. Alderson never really seemed to mind when the Mets performed poorly. He was a textbook company man, carrying out the wishes of his bargain-basement bosses.

2. He wants to win. He throws chairs when he loses. He must've been channeling this scene from Moneyball.

3. He's confident. It may be false bravado, but that's better than losing quietly and/or not caring.

What we DON'T like about Brodie, so far:

1. Virtually every other organization in the MLB is placing immense value on prospects, for obvious reasons: (A) cheap labor in the early years of their big-league tenure; (B) high upside with low risk and (C) if you build a core of talented young players, you can maintain assets, financial flexibility and long-term success. Of course, the Astros are currently the best example of this.

And yet, Brodie shows no signs of keeping up with the times. His Mets are doing the exact opposite - trading their best prospects for vets, one of whom is arguably the worst and least valuable all-around player in the league (Cano, duh).

2. His front office team is behind the eight-ball in both analytics and player development. The Mets have an 82-year old pitching coach (Phil Regan). The Wilpons don't really "believe" in analytics (what is it, a myth?). This front office got NOTHING for Travis d'Arnaud. The Dodgers picked him up and quickly flipped him for cash. That happened because Brodie and his cabinet were unable to evaluate d'Arnaud's perceived value on the open market. That's something they need to know about most of their players, if not all.

THE VERDICT? You can't cage an animal that belongs in the wild.

Peter Alonso is 24 years old - he had to wait too damn long to get the call up to the big leagues. Rosario debuted for the Mets at 21. Conforto and Dom Smith were 22. Nimmo and Tomas Nido were both 23. Why did the "Polar Bear" have to wait longer than everyone else?

Obviously, a lot of the Wilpons' decision-making was financially based in this case, but Alonso had 31 HR and 119 RBI in just 478 minor league AB last season. No call up? He couldn't have helped last year's hapless Mets through a brutal stretch in the middle of the season? The year before he had 18 HR, 63 RBI and 27 2B in just 353 AB.

The kid was Major League ready. We all knew it. The Mets knew it, internally; instead they held on to a few extra bucks.

This season Alonso has arrived as a man on fire, winning the Home Run Derby and boasting 34 HR (third most in the game) and 77 RBI in the regular season. He's a natural-born leader who oozes positive energy and the necessary drive to become a megastar. He's the most exciting Met in a long, long time.

Ya can't keep a good man down for long.




THE VERDICT? Brodie definitely reads tweets from Mets fans.

Okay, I blew this one - but who knew Lowrie was going to break down physically? Boasting 23 HR and 99 RBI, he was coming off the most productive season of his 11-year MLB career. It simply hasn't worked out. He hasn't played a single game in a Met uniform.

Ramos has been solid with runners in scoring position, but he's a weak defensive catcher who clogs up the bases every time he gets on. d'Arnaud is making $555,000 with the Rays; Ramos is making $7.25 million this year and $10.25 the next. Those were resources better used elsewhere.

The good news is...I have Brodie's ear! Maybe he read that tweet, since we ended up with both Lowrie and Ramos. 😉

THE VERDICT? I think I gave sound advice, and Brodie followed it again.

Home runs are flying out of big-league ballparks at a record rate, and even before the "magically" juiced baseballs, the old saying was you can never have enough quality pitching.

deGrom is a true ace - one of the best of the best. Syndergaard has had an up-and-down '19 campaign, but he's still a solid No. 2 with outstanding postseason numbers in a small sample (2.42 ERA, 36 Ks in 26 IP). Wheeler and Matz produce fluctuating results, but Wheeler has deadly pure stuff and Matz is a lefty who throws 93-95 with a nice, big, slow breaking ball. They have upside for mid-to-back rotation starters. This is a foursome worth trying to keep together; and now we can add Marcus Stroman to that already-talented group.

THE VERDICT? Thank God Brodie didn't include McNeil in that deal.

And I stand by what I wrote..."Kelenic and Dunn? I wouldn't." That still stings. Imagine if Mac ended up in there, too?

Of course, McNeil is currently 3rd in the majors with a .331 BA, just fractional points behind DJ LeMahieu and Christian Yelich for the overall lead. (Speaking of LeMahieu...he was just as available as Lowrie, right? Ouch.) Without Mac, the Mets would be out of the Wild Card race, selling players instead of buying. He plays all over the diamond and brings that Murphy-esque bat, day in and day out. A true blue-collar grinder.

Down in the minors, Kelenic is hitting .283 with 16 HR, 24 2B and 16 SB in just 329 AB. He's widely considered one of the best all-around prospects in baseball, now. Dunn has a 3.59 ERA and 119 Ks in 100 innings of work. These losses burn, especially when you get back dead weight in Cano and Edwin Diaz struggling through the worst season of his life. Speaking of Diaz...

THE VERDICT? I don't know my ass from my elbow.

Diaz's fall from grace has been shocking to behold, but Billy Valeriano, one of our Hot Takes Team's Senior Analysts, nailed this one from the beginning. In this article, he said, "Why trade the prospects? Sign Kimbrel, Robertson or Miller. Diaz only had one great year. All I'm saying is...I don't want my closer to have a 3.50 ERA."

Billy was basically right, except...Diaz is even WORSE than he projected, with a 5.14 ERA and unacceptable 1.45 WHIP from a closer. Maybe, like many before him, he just can't pitch in New York? Maybe the bright lights are too bright?

Personally, I think Diaz's stats will normalize over the course of the next year and a half, because he's never been this bad. The highest ERA of his career was 3.27. This 5.14 comes out of nowhere.

Obviously, if the Mets are serious about making a run for the postseason, Diaz will have to be the closer he was in Seattle. Only time will tell, as far as that is concerned.

THE VERDICT? Realmuto is hitting .270 with 14 HR. d'Arnaud has (basically) the same stats in 150 less AB.

So yeah, we didn't need to trade for Realmuto, despite the 1,000 articles speculating a possible deal during the offseason. Alonso, McNeil and Conforto are franchise cornerstones, and Rosario has displayed dramatic offensive improvements.

Nimmo, on the other hand - what happened to this kid? He's been hurt for quite some time now, but prior to injury he couldn't touch a baseball. The plethora of holes in his swing really got exposed by big-league pitching (and scouting reports). I'm not sure he's an important piece, going forward.

It's a win for the Mets that they didn't lose Conforto or Rosario, though.

And those are all tweets PRIOR to the MLB season. Be on the lookout for Volume II in the coming week!
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Monday, July 8, 2019

Kawhi & PG to the Clippers! Frascella's Analysis & Updated Win Projections

Photo Credit: Clutchpoints.com
Exactly a week ago, I analyzed the NBA offseason and projected team win totals. In response, my buddy Chris Laporte wrote, "I think you probably should have waited for Kawhi's decision to hit post."

Well, that decision has finally arrived and it comes with some extra hot sauce:

Kawhi Leonard AND Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers???!!!

Just like that, the NBA is flipped upside down - again. Since we know Kawhi is the perfect get for Doc Rivers and his Clippers -- and there isn't much to say that isn't overtly obvious about his impact -- I'll just jump right to the blockbuster "PG" trade analysis...

Part I: The Clippers Get Paul George

On paper, we know exactly what this does -- it gives the Clippers two superstars and immediately rockets them into a perceived top three or four contender for the 2019-20 NBA title. Mind you, however, that the Thunder just had Paul George and Russell Westbrook for two seasons and couldn't get out of the first round of the playoffs. 

I'm just sayin', this isn't a golden ticket...you don't just magically appear in the Finals after this trade. There's no question the Clippers had to do something like this, but I'm not entirely sold on George as a No. 2 closer for a championship team. 

Down 2-0 to the Blazers this postseason, in desperate need of a season-saving victory, George went 3-of-16 from the floor, and was bailed out by Westbrook's 33 points and 11 assists on 50% shooting. OKC went on to lose the series in five games. 

Down 3-2 to the Jazz the postseason before, George went 2-of-16 for five points -- FIVE. POINTS. -- as his Thunder lost by (fittingly) five points, 96-91, in a game they should have won, had George played even one-third as well as he could have. Westbrook has 46 points and 10 rebounds in that loss. 

So, the point is not (A) Westbrook is better than George -- I'd still take PG over Russ, though not by as much as others -- or (B) George isn't going to play well for the Clippers; the point is actually (C) The Clippers will cruise to a high playoff seed, but, deep into the playoffs, Kawhi may not like what he sees from PG. Kawhi may have to go back into Raptors mode in the end. 

But then again...there's my boy Lou Williams! In a devastating pick-and-roll fest with monster Montrezl Harrell, Lou Will took two playoff games off the Warriors at full strength. Sweet Lou's never-ending bag of offensive tricks puts opposing D's on ice skates, so he's an ideal guy to have behind Kawhi and PG. If PG's not ready to back Kawhi up in the big spots, Lou will gladly take the rock (no pun intended). Those three, and Harrell, will be on the floor at crunchtime. Rivers will play the matchups with the fifth man, whether it's Patrick Beverley, Moe Harkless or Landry Shamet. Ivica Zubac could be used against bigger teams, too. For now, this club is just eight deep; but it's a balanced and strong eight. 

These Clippers won't end up like the failed Thunder because (A) Kawhi is far more controlled and simply better than Westbrook and (B) Rivers is lightyears ahead of Billy Donovan as a head coach.

Only injuries will keep the Clips -- ahh! Did someone say "Clippers injuries"? CP3 and Blake flashbacks! -- out of the Western Conference semifinals, at the very least. Read on to the end for my new projected win total. 

Part II: The Thunder Get Gallinari, Gilgeous-Alexander, 4 Unprotected 1st Round Picks & 1 Protected 1st Rounder

Who knows what to think about GM Sam Presti at this point, right?

He was the "guru" behind the original OKC trio of Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. Then he was the "mastermind" and "genius" behind the all-powerful foursome of Westbrook, Durant, James Harden and Serge Ibaka. Then he was the idiot who chose Ibaka over Harden, long-term. Then Westbrook alone. Then Westbrook and George. So many iterations. Constantly reshaping his roster. 

Now it's rebuild time. Let's think this through...

What if he doesn't give George to the Clippers? Are the Clips anything close to a dominant team in the West? Kawhi didn't choose the Lakers, so we don't have a frightening superteam in the conference. Instead, you'd have Kawhi with a bunch of role players, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Westbrook and George, then the true "teams" like the Nuggets, Jazz and Blazers.

What if Presti had just improved the team around his two superstars? The Thunder were 22nd in the NBA in three-point percentage. Steven Adams can't shoot a ball outside two feet of the rim. How about catching your roster up with the times?

Or was firing Donovan the best way for Presti to improve his team?

There's an argument to be made for keeping the Westbrook/George duo together; but the other side of this debate is probably the right one. For whatever reason, the talented tandem wasn't producing playoff victories. It's tear-down time, and Presti's off to a strong start with five (potentially) valuable draft picks. Gilgeous-Alexander showed a lot as a rookie, too. This was my initial gut reaction to the deal:

If Westbrook is ultimately traded for future assets, Gallinari will step into the primary scoring role alongside Dennis Schroder; regardless, in the short-term this team is sunk. You aren't going anywhere in this West with Gallinari, Schroder and Adams as your best players and leaders. If they keep Westbrook, they are in a similar boat with the depleted Warriors. Let's take a look at my updated win projections:

John Frascella's NBA Win Projections as of 7/8/2019

Eastern Conference

1. Milwaukee Bucks: 55-27
2. Philadelphia 76ers: 53-29
3. Indiana Pacers: 49-33
4. Brooklyn Nets: 48-34
5. Boston Celtics: 46-36
6. Toronto Raptors: 43-39
7. Detroit Pistons: 42-40
8. Orlando Magic: 41-41
9. Miami Heat: 40-42
10. Chicago Bulls: 38-44
11. Atlanta Hawks: 36-46
12. New York Knicks: 29-53
13. Cleveland Cavaliers: 19-63
14. Washington Wizards: 18-64
15. Charlotte Hornets: 16-66

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Clippers: 58-24
2. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
3. Los Angeles Lakers: 52-30
4. Utah Jazz: 51-31
5. Portland Trail Blazers: 50-32
6. Houston Rockets: 47-35
7. San Antonio Spurs: 46-36
8. Golden State Warriors: 44-38
9. New Orleans Pelicans: 43-39
10. Oklahoma City Thunder: 42-40 with Westbrook (19-63 without)
11. Dallas Mavericks: 42-40
12. Sacramento Kings: 41-41
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: 34-48
14. Phoenix Suns: 28-54
15. Memphis Grizzlies: 21-61

I hope you enjoyed reading! Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @MetsDepression or Instagram at frotography21. All reasonable sports debates are welcome!
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Monday, July 1, 2019

John Frascella's NBA Free Agency Report Cards and Projected Win Totals

Photo Credit: Clutchpoints.com

That was the wildest day in the history of NBA free agency. So much to talk about, so little time...let's go!

Eastern Conference

Milwaukee Bucks

2018-19 Record: 60-22
2019-20 Frascella Projection as of 7/1/2019: 55-27

Key Addition: Robin Lopez (C+)
Key Loss: Malcolm Brogdon

Lopez is an NBA big, but not much else. He's a good defender who finishes well within 3-5 feet of the rim, but doesn't extend his game much, nor does he offer much in the way of versatility. I'm not sure about the impact of pairing him with his twin brother, Brook. It didn't seem to bother them much in college, but to me, this still creates a little bit of a sideshow.

Toronto Raptors

2018-19 Record: 58-24
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 43-39

Key Loss: Likely Kawhi Leonard

If and when the Raptors officially lose Kawhi, Masai Ujiri will have to scramble for some swingman scoring. Still available are Jabari Parker, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Morris and JaMychal Green. Slim pickings. They should probably pull the trigger on Jabari.

Philadelphia 76ers

2018-19 Record: 51-31
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 53-29

Key Additions: Al Horford (A-), likely Josh Richardson (B) & Kyle O'Quinn (D+)
Key Losses: Jimmy Butler & JJ Redick

I like the defensive implications of pairing Horford with Joel Embiid. When engaged, Embiid is an absolute eraser in the paint, and Horford is a master of angles and positioning. If you're in the East, you're not going to have fun attacking Philly's paint. Offensively, Horford is an elite passing big man, and he'll keep the rock bouncing from Embiid to Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and others. This should be a good fit, but Philly needs to address the shooting absence of Redick. If the Jimmy Butler trade goes through as planned, Richardson will help the Sixers in both perimeter shooting and defending. This could be a dangerous defensive team.

Boston Celtics

2018-19 Record: 49-33
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 46-36

Key Additions: Kemba Walker (A) & Enes Kanter (B+)
Key Losses: Kyrie Irving, Al Horford & Terry Rozier

It's fair to say that the Kyrie/Kemba debate is splitting hairs, but Horford is a big loss in leadership, rebounding, passing and team atmosphere. The Celtics are also losing Terry Rozier and possibly Marcus Morris, two aggressive and productive contributors. They are trending downward, but will expect Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward to fully exert themselves as all-around impact players. Personnel losses can be distracting; sometimes other players just step up when they get more minutes and touches. Time will tell for many teams in this regard.

UPDATE at 2:52 p.m. EST: Boston has added Kanter to replace Horford. Clearly, Horford is the superior all-around player, but I've always been a big Kanter fan. He's relentless on the offensive glass, constantly providing second chances and momentum-shifting hoops. I honestly think Kanter is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Don't forget - he gave the Blazers a real lift during their postseason run after Jusuf Nurkic went down. Kanter has real value; multiple teams were vying for his services.

Indiana Pacers

2018-19 Record: 48-34
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 49-33

Key Additions: Malcolm Brogdon (B+), Jeremy Lamb (B)
Key Losses: Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph & Thaddeus Young

So, let's see...the Pacers are now looking at a lineup of Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, Lamb, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner? Hmm, rather interesting. Of course they'll need Oladipo at 100% health to get to the next level, but overall I'd say they've slightly improved their chances to thrive. Brogdon -- a huge loss for Milwaukee -- is more disruptive and impactful than Collison, and Lamb is three years younger than Bogdanovic and probably coming off his best year as a pro. Don't forget...head coach Nate McMillan did a helluva job with Oladipo sidelined last season. McMillan can squeeze a lot out of a little, and this core is more than "a little".

Brooklyn Nets

2018-19 Record: 42-40
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 48-34

Key Additions: Kevin Durant (A), Kyrie Irving (A-), DeAndre Jordan (B+), Taurean Prince (B) & Garrett Temple (B)
Key Losses: D'Angelo Russell, Shabazz Napier, Treveon Graham, Allen Crabbe & DeMarre Carroll

Cha-ching! Yeah, I'm a Nets fan and I really do need to celebrate. But...as a Mets and Jets fan, the pessimistic little voice in the back of my head is whispering, what if Durant comes back in a year and immediately gets hurt again? We Nets fans are just going to have to hope that doesn't happen. Durant is either the best or second-best basketball player in the world, and we're just going to have to hope he's still that when he returns. In the meantime, Kyrie will hold down the fort as the Nets look to capitalize on the wide open field that is the Eastern Conference. LeBron left a year ago; now Kawhi is likely to follow suit. With Durant sidelined for the 19-20 campaign the Bucks and Sixers should be considered the favorites in the East, but the remaining Nets should be highly competitive. The better teams in the East will read the flow of the season; if they can go for it all -- think the Sixers adding Butler and Tobias last year, or the Raptors getting Marc Gasol -- then they will.

Orlando Magic

2018-19 Record: 42-40
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 41-41

Key Addition: Al-Farouq Aminu (B-)

So the Magic are basically the same team as last year, just with Al-Farouq Aminu? No offense to the kid, but he's not the answer. Offensively he's always been wildly inconsistent; defensively he can be disruptive but his impact is fleeting. He's a nice NBA player, but I don't see a magical team transformation here.

Detroit Pistons

2018-19 Record: 41-41
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 42-40

Key Addition: Derrick Rose (A-)

I love this signing for Detroit. Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin have been leading the way in the frontcourt, but this club has consistently fizzled out due to a lack of backcourt production. Rose is off an inspirational bounce-back year; the bounce was literally back in his step. If it were up to me, he'd overtake Reggie Jackson and I'd probably look for a trade partner for the latter. They need a culture change in the backcourt.


Charlotte Hornets

2018-19 Record: 39-43
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 16-66

Key Addition: Terry Rozier (B+)
Key Losses: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb & Tony Parker

I happen to like "Scary Terry" an awful lot, but he's not Kemba Walker. Rozier will likely be a monster in fantasy basketball, but let's get real here - the Hornets are in full rebuild mode now. Kemba and Lamb Chop accounted for a significant chunk of their offensive output. The Hornets may very well be the worst team in the East at the moment.

Miami Heat

2018-19 Record: 39-43
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 40-42

Key Addition: Likely to add Jimmy Butler (A)
Key Losses: Likely to deal Josh Richardson & Goran Dragic

I mean, this Heat team was awfully scrappy this past season, and I don't mean that in a good way. They were trying to make the playoffs in the East -- a conference which had multiple franchises tanking simultaneously -- and they simply couldn't get the job done. In theory, Butler alone should get them over the playoff hump...but think again. The Bucks, 76ers, Nets and Celtics will be considered playoff locks. Personally, I can't see the Pacers missing the postseason. The Raptors, despite losing their megastar, are the defending NBA champions with an elite head coach and maximum team effort. That's six. That puts the Heat in a playoff battle for scraps with the Pistons, Magic, and perhaps even the Hawks, Knicks and Bulls. Pat Riley and the Heat openly say they have no interest in tanking, but where, exactly, is that getting them?

Washington Wizards

2018-19 Record: 32-50
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 18-64

Key Addition: Moritz Wagner (B)
Key Losses: Bobby Portis, Trevor Ariza & Tomas Satoransky

Oh boy. It ain't lookin' good in Washington. Jabari Parker is also a free agent, and John Wall is coming off Achilles surgery (back in February, the earliest). Total tank job coming here. They'll be wayyy down at the bottom of the conference this year. Bradley Beal against the world!

Atlanta Hawks

2018-19 Record: 29-53
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 36-46

Key Additions: Evan Turner (C+) & Allen Crabbe (C-)
Key Losses: Taurean Prince & Kent Bazemore

I love the young pick-and-roll duo of Trey Young and John Collins, but the Hawks haven't done much to improve the talent around them. Rookie Cam Reddish is going to have to make a major impact. They'll miss Prince's active defense and three-point marksmanship. I want to consider the Hawks a playoff contender, but their front office's inactivity suggests another season of tanking if things don't break their way in the early going. That would be welcome news for Riley, Erik Spoelstra and the Heat.

Chicago Bulls

2018-19 Record: 22-60
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 38-44

Key Additions: Thaddeus Young (B) & Tomas Satoransky (B-)
Key Loss: Robin Lopez

It was a curious signing of Satoransky, given the fact that the Bulls already have Kris Dunn on their roster, and they just drafted PG Coby White with the 7th overall pick in the draft. Zach LaVine likes the ball in his hands, as well. Yet and still, the combination of Thaddeus and Satoransky is a clear personnel upgrade over the loss of Robin Lopez. Chicago's front office decided to stick with veteran head coach Jim Boylen because they believe something clicked down the stretch of last season; now he has a couple more useful pieces to work with. Let's see what he does with them. If these Bulls play hard and stay healthy, I believe they can compete for a playoff spot.

Cleveland Cavaliers

2018-19 Record: 19-63
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 19-63

No action, yet? Off the top of my head, I remember that Alec Burks and Marquese Chriss are free agents -- both contributed in positive ways for last year's Cavs squad. Rookies Darius Garland and Kevin Porter are ultimately the key additions, here. This is clearly another tank year for Cleveland. It probably isn't encouraging when Collin Sexton is your best player (yeah, I think he'll be as good or better than aging, struggling Kevin Love).

New York Knicks

2018-19 Record: 17-65
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 29-53

Key Additions: Julius Randle (A-), Taj Gibson (B), Bobby Portis (B+), Reggie Bullock (B-), Wayne Ellington (B) & Elfrid Payton (C+)
Key Losses: DeAndre Jordan, Lance Thomas, Emmanuel Mudiay, Noah Vonleh, Luke Kornet & Henry Ellenson

Well...just compare those two lists. The players coming in are far better than those departing. It all depends on your perspective -- is this offseason a win for the Knicks because they clearly improved their team, or is it a resounding loss because the beautiful dream of Zion Williamson, Durant and Kyrie never materialized into a reality?

Judging by the overwhelmingly negative social media reaction -- as well as many angry texts I received -- I'd say Knicks fans are bordering on clinical depression. However, performance will improve with Randle and rookie R.J. Barrett leading the way for David Fizdale's slowly improving team.

And let me tell you - Fizdale is going to have his hands full this season. How the hell is he going to manage this rotation? At point guard, you have a four-way position battle between Dennis Smith Jr., Payton, Allonzo Trier and Frank Ntilikina. In a vacuum, they all have debatable merits. Of course, the Knicks' brass will want Smith to start because they traded Kristaps Porzingis for him. He clearly has the upper hand for the starting job, but Smith did nothing to distinguish himself from Trier or Mudiay down the stretch of last season. I doubt he's much better than Payton or Ntilikina in different ways, either.

At shooting guard, well, is Barrett going to start at shooting guard or small forward? Decisions, decisions. He clearly shoots and possesses ball skills like a two, but his size, length and physicality allow him the versatility to comfortably play the three, if wanted or needed there. He shouldn't be in a battle for playing time with anyone, but his starting position impacts everyone else on the roster.

Let's say it's Smith and Barrett...who next? Reggie Bullock, Wayne Ellington or Kevin Knox? Damyean Dotson is also a swingman, and he was easily one of New York's top reserves last season. He's not in the mix to start, but he should garner some minutes off the pine. That's four guys getting PT in this slot.

Then there's the elephant in the room...the Knicks signed Randle, Portis and Gibson on the same day, and they all play the same position. Of course Randle will be asked to be one of the "stars" of this team, but exactly where and how do Portis and Gibson fit in? I think the Knicks should just play Mitchell Robinson at center and leave him alone. He has some explosive ability, but these power forwards will steal minutes from him when Fizdale is going small. I count 12 players who deserve minutes in some way, and that doesn't include Ntilikina, who really should get some minutes as a project. Skillset wise, he's not a total bust. He needs to be coached and developed into value.

On the bright side, GM Scott Perry has done something rather savvy -- he's inked a number of contracts that are supremely easy to move. Gibson and Ellington are veterans who can help better teams during serious playoff runs. Payton and Bullock could be enticing that way, too. Only Barrett, Randle, Smith, Robinson, Portis and Knox should be considered "safe" in Knicks uniforms. Everyone else is a potential trade piece the second this season goes south.

Anyway, I guess I could go on forever about these messy Knicks. The reality is that they've improved their talent pool this offseason. The question is...will confidence levels drown in there?

Western Conference

Golden State Warriors

2018-19 Record: 57-25
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 44-38

Key Addition: D'Angelo Russell (A-)
Key Losses: Kevin Durant & Andre Iguodala

These Warriors are tricky. Initial reaction seemed to be wow, they were lying in the weeds then grabbed Russell when no one expected it! But now, it seems Russell's time with the Warriors may be rather short. They believe he's easily movable via trade, and most believe he's a bad fit for Golden State's speed, conditioning, pace and defense. Sure, D-Lo jacks up a ton of threes like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, but other than that, he's not a Warrior-type player. A re-trade does seem to make sense, here. The jury is still out on this Warrior roster.

Denver Nuggets

2018-19 Record: 54-28
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 53-29

Like the Cavs, there's been no action here. Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap were re-signed. Mike Malone is going to bring his boys along as a collective unit. Inactivity is probably smart in this instance. Murray, Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Malik Beasley and others need to continue to grow together.

Portland Trail Blazers

2018-19 Record: 53-29
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 50-32

Key Additions: Mario Hezonja (C-), Hassan Whiteside (A-) & Kent Bazemore (C+)
Key Losses: Evan Turner, Enes Kanter, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard & Seth Curry

For the most part, this personnel swap seems like a wash; though Portland may have weakened itself just a tiny bit. The Whiteside trade was timely with Jusuf Nurkic injured and Kanter signing with the Celtics, but I'm not particularly enamored with Bazemore nor Hezonja. Terry Stotts' squad is gonna need productivity from Rodney Hood and Zach Collins.

Houston Rockets

2018-19 Record: 53-29
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 47-35

Jimmy Butler would have been the key get, here. He probably assumed he'd end up in a fistfight with James Harden at some point. Instead, Butler's opting for Miami's scorching scenery. He ain't interested in that stress.

Utah Jazz

2018-19 Record: 50-32
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 52-30

Key Additions: Mike Conley (A-), Bojan Bogdanovic (A-) & Ed Davis (A-)
Key Losses: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Ricky Rubio & Derrick Favors

I think Indiana is Utah's Eastern Conference mirror - both franchises consistently fly under the radar, but they are well-managed and can sneak up on teams that get more press and notoriety. Quin Snyder has some tricky decisions, here...go completely small and start Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles at the forwards? Let Bogdanovic run the second unit with Ed Davis starting at power forward? Let Ingles run the second unit? I think that's probably the best fit...Conley, Mitchell, Bogdanovic, Davis and Gobert starting with Ingles carrying the bench, accompanied by Royce O'Neale and Georges Niang. This is a solid squad. Don't sleep on them.

Oklahoma City Thunder

2018-19 Record: 49-33
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 45-37

Key Addition: Mike Muscala (D)

We can't really call Muscala a "key" addition. He's just an addition. The Thunder are stuck in basketball purgatory with Billy Donovan and Russell Westbrook.

San Antonio Spurs

2018-19 Record: 48-34
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 44-38

Key Addition: DeMarre Carroll (B-)

Carroll is a very Spurs-like veteran. This doesn't change much about their overall outlook, though.

Los Angeles Clippers

2018-19 Record: 48-34
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 43-39

Key Loss: Garrett Temple

Doesn't look like they are getting Kawhi Leonard 😭.

Sacramento Kings

2018-19 Record: 39-43
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 41-41

Key Additions: Dewayne Dedmon (B), Cory Joseph (C+), Trevor Ariza (B) & Richaun Holmes (C+)
Key Loss: Willie Cauley-Stein

Looks like the Kings are hoarding big men. Sure, Cauley-Stein is moving on, but they've added Dedmon, Holmes and Ariza to a frontcourt that already feeds minutes to Marvin Bagley, Harry Giles, Harrison Barnes and Nemanja Bjelica. To be honest with you, I feel like all seven of those guys actually deserve playing time. New head coach Luke Walton's rotational situation is similar to David Fizdale's in New York. I'm not entirely sure that these are good problems to have. The Kings will go as far as De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Bagley can take them. This doesn't feel like their time, yet.

Los Angeles Lakers

2018-19 Record: 37-45
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 62-20

Key Additions: Anthony Davis (A+), Troy Daniels (A-), probably Kawhi Leonard (A+++) and possibly Danny Green (B) and Andre Iguodala (A)
Key Losses: Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Reggie Bullock, Mike Muscala, JaVale McGee, Lance Stephenson & Moritz Wagner

It looks like they are getting Kawhi Leonard 😭.

If that comes to fruition, there's no point in playing this NBA season. It's Lakers all the way.

Minnesota Timberwolves

2018-19 Record: 36-46
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 34-48

Key Additions: Shabazz Napier (B-) & Treveon Graham (D+)
Key Losses: Derrick Rose & Taj Gibson

Remember when the Wolves were the talk of the town with Tom Thibodeau, Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins?

Yuuuup. Well, um, that didn't last very long. Thibs is out of sight, out of mind, Butler suddenly stopped caring about winning (I mean, why else would he pick Miami?), Towns has developed a reputation as a Charmin soft player and Wiggins just isn't very good. These current Wolves aren't very good, either.

Memphis Grizzlies

2018-19 Record: 33-49
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 21-61

Key Additions: Jae Crowder (B-) & Grayson Allen (B+)
Key Loss: Mike Conley

Allen was the sneaky part of the Conley deal; I like what I saw from the crafty, versatile swingman as a rookie. Keep an eye on this kid, because the minutes are available to him with a rebuilding Memphis squad.

Of course, the real get this offseason is the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, electric point guard Ja Morant. I'm just worried another De'Aaron Fox-type player isn't good enough for this franchise. I see a lot of similarities between those two young, explosive guards. But are their shooting ceilings limited?

New Orleans Pelicans

2018-19 Record: 33-49
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 43-39

Key Additions: Brandon Ingram (A-), Lonzo Ball (B), Josh Hart (C+), JJ Redick (A-) & Derrick Favors (B+)
Key Losses: Anthony Davis, Elfrid Payton & Julius Randle

The Pelicans moved Davis -- one of the top seven or eight basketball players in the universe -- and actually got better this offseason. Randle played well, but was never a good fit for New Orleans' roster construction. This organization wasn't getting anywhere with Davis, either. I think he's soft, and he's not a franchise closer.

Now they have Zion Williamson, and I think he'll play with more power, fire and passion than Davis ever did. Davis is so long, athletic, versatile and talented that he never really had to play with a chip on his shoulder. Zion, on the other hand, plays with pure fury. He's a "gift from God," as Coach K said, and he arrives in New Orleans at precisely the right time.

So, how will head coach Alvin Gentry shake out these minutes? Ingram, whom I really like, will have to be one of the go-to scorers for this young, developing squad. The veterans, Jrue Holiday and Redick, will chop up the scoring load with Ingram and Zion, while getting team-first contributions from Favors and Ball. I like this team's top six players; Frank Jackson, E'Twaun Moore, Kenrich Williams and Jahlil Okafor have rotational value, as well. The Pelicans will undoubtedly be one of the most interesting teams in the NBA this season.

Dallas Mavericks

2018-19 Record: 33-49
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 42-40

Key Addition: Seth Curry (B)

The fate of this franchise rests in Kristaps Porzingis' monstrous hands -- can he stay healthy? Plain and simple. I'm worried he's becoming another Yao Ming, of sorts. All the talent and size in the world...maybe too much size to be relied upon to stay healthy as a franchise player?

Phoenix Suns

2018-19 Record: 19-63
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 28-54

Key Additions: Ricky Rubio (B+), Dario Saric (C+) & Frank Kaminsky (C+)
Key Loss: Richaun Holmes

I felt Igor Kokoskov got a bit of a raw deal after just one season on the job -- it's not like the Suns were built to win last season, right? -- but Monty Williams makes for a more seasoned NBA replacement. This Rubio, Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre, Saric, Deandre Ayton lineup is going to be awfully interesting for him to work with. Phoenix won't magically get there over night, but it is most certainly trending in the right direction. Rubio will create flow for this offense, while taking some over-usage away from Booker. These transactions will allow Booker to play with even higher efficiency.

John Frascella's Win Projections as of 7/1/2019

Eastern Conference

1. Milwaukee Bucks: 55-27
2. Philadelphia 76ers: 53-29
3. Indiana Pacers: 49-33
4. Brooklyn Nets: 48-34
5. Boston Celtics: 46-36
6. Toronto Raptors: 43-39
7. Detroit Pistons: 42-40
8. Orlando Magic: 41-41
9. Miami Heat: 40-42
10. Chicago Bulls: 38-44
11. Atlanta Hawks: 36-46
12. New York Knicks: 29-53
13. Cleveland Cavaliers: 19-63
14. Washington Wizards: 18-64
15. Charlotte Hornets: 16-66

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers: 62-20
2. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
3. Utah Jazz: 52-30
4. Portland Trail Blazers: 50-32
5. Houston Rockets: 47-35
6. Oklahoma City Thunder: 45-37
7. San Antonio Spurs: 44-38
8. Golden State Warriors: 44-38
9. Los Angeles Clippers: 43-39
10. New Orleans Pelicans: 43-39
11. Dallas Mavericks: 42-40
12. Sacramento Kings: 41-41
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: 34-48
14. Phoenix Suns: 28-54
15. Memphis Grizzlies: 21-61

I hope you enjoyed reading! Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @MetsDepression or Instagram at frotography21. All reasonable sports debates are welcome!
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Wednesday, March 20, 2019

The Legend's Fantasy Draft Report: Who Choked Under the Pressure?

No introduction necessary. Comments will be short and sweet, to save time. Hitting is most important because we have 7 offensive categories and only 6 pitching. Let's get right into it...

Team: Back 2 Back 2 Back
Manager: Dan Tancredi

Coach Tancredi has been a dominant force in this league, racking up a slew of titles in recent years. Let's go by category...

Hitting: B+

Daniel Murphy should be a nice value playing at Coors Field, with lineup protection from Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. I expect some regression from Jose Ramirez and his bizarrely fat face. The Indians went cheap this offseason, and it appears they will be leaning heavily upon their starting pitching. We'll see if Francisco Lindor can stay healthy to protect Ramirez. Ramirez over-performed early in 2018. Story should again be a strong source of power production. Starling Marte and Lorenzo Cain bring both athleticism and versatility to Coach Tancredi's outfield. Byron Buxton can't hit. He's a physical freak, but that doesn't always get it done in baseball. You need to have the eye, discipline and approach. Utility is strong with Voit, Bader, Marwin Gonzalez and Kang. With Gregory Polanco injured, Tancredi has Pittsburgh's top two producers in Marte and Kang. Brinson and Gurriel, Jr. are his dart-throw upside kids on the bench.

Starting Pitching: C-

Gerrit Cole was a beast for me last year. No complaints there. Jon Gray is a piece of shit. Walks the ballpark and is totally inconsistent. He also pitches at Coors. I don't know what the hell a "Chris Paddack" is. Sounds made up. Maeda and Fiers are fairly consistent back-of-fantasy rotation vets. They shouldn't kill you. If Severino comes back strong, we can bump this grade up to a B- or B at that time.

Relief Pitching: A+

Dan's been crushing the league with money relievers in recent years. This year he has Edwin Diaz, Kirby Yates and Corey Knebel. I had all three guys in my top 10-12 relief pitchers.

Overall: B+

Team: Crooked Hillary
Manager: Steven Summer

Steve is the greatest "Beat the Streak" player on the planet. He's also a consistently successful season-long fantasy manager.

Hitting: A-

Love Steve's infield with Merrifield, Gennett, Suarez and Baez. Those are producers in their primetime years. I like the texture and complementary aspects of that group. Judge is a monster, of course. Conforto is tricky, but we know he has 30-35 homer ability in a full season. Brantley should enjoy being in a lineup with Altuve, Correa, Springer and Gurriel. I'm not sold on Mazara's sustainability over 162 games (starts strong, then fades), but I like where Stevie got Soler. Soler could potentially be the most important hitter on the Royals, which I guess, is like being the smartest kid on the short bus. Ji-Man Choi...that's a joke, right? Ji Ji Ji Ji Ji-Unit!!!

Starting Pitching: B+

Tancredi and Summer pickin' up my scraps. Gray and Chris Archer sucked for me last year. Steve likes the idea of Archer in the NL for a full season, and I can't argue with him on that. Blake Snell, Luis Castillo and Sean Newcomb are quality young arms. Pivetta could be good, as well. Sums got Wacha in a nice value spot, too. We'll see if Kikuchi can deliver in his rookie season with Seattle.

Relief Pitching: D+

Coach Summer will clearly be relying on his starting pitching. He will look to win Wins, Strikeouts and Quality Starts on a weekly basis. On the relief side, Jose Alvarado has a nice, live arm and Wily Peralta is competing with Boxberger for the Royals' closer spot.

Overall: B+

Team: Madd Dogs
Manager: Michael Alberts

Known for crunching the numbers like no other, Mikey is always lying in the weeds, putting together a seemingly-shitty team and winning championships. It's not about how pretty it looks on paper.

Hitting: A-

Can't argue with an infield of Cano, Albies, Bregman and Lindor -- that's just nasty. Rendon and Devers look awfully good down in utility, too. We'll see how long it will take Coach Alberts to get a call-up and production from mega-prospect Eloy Jimenez. Yolmer Sanchez has some tricky value down on his bench, too.

Starting Pitching: B-

Strasburg still hasn't established himself as a true ace. He had his best stuff in college before the surgeries, and he simply isn't as sharp as a pro. He's a front-line No. 2 starter, but his name is bigger than his results have been. Marquez has deadly strikeout stuff, but Coors makes everyone a question mark. Eduardo Rodriguez is a quality back-of-rotation lefty. Smooth arm. Teheran gets the ball on Opening Day for Atlanta, and Rodon the same for the ChiSox. Stripling tossed the ball well for the Dodgers last season, but their rotation is overcrowded. He'll likely start in the rotation with Kershaw out, but Julio Urias will always be peeking over his shoulder. Musgrove sucks. Harvey is a joke with a stiff arm.

Relief Pitching: B

Only two closers, but Leclerc and Givens should be good and relatively safe. Leclerc was dominant for Texas last season.

Overall: A-

Team: Twin Towers
Manager: Billy Valeriano

Billy has some sort of personal issue with Jung Ho Kang...

Hitting: B-

At the top of his group, Billy is as strong as they come with Blackmon, Acuna and Springer. This gives him one of the elite outfields in our league. Overall offensive depth is an issue, though. Alonso may begin the season in AAA with Dom Smith and JD Davis around; Herrera has a nagging hamstring issue, and his value and playing time are hindered by Harper, McCutchen and Nick Williams, who will all get their ABs in the Phillies' outfield, and Ohtani is out the first month of the season. Jose Martinez doesn't have an everyday spot with the Cardinals. Schebler could provide a power boost, currently listed as a bench player.

Starting Pitching: A

Not much to say, here. Verlander, Paxton, Happ, Bieber, Freeland and Rodriguez all lookin' good. This is a stud staff.

Relief Pitching: B+

Doolittle and Hand are safe lefty closers. No depth here, beyond that.

Overall: B+

Team: Rockville Rube Baker
Managers: Jimmy Kelly & Tommy Herold

Considering his complete lack of knowledge, Jimmy did a nice job filling in for Tommy.

Hitting: A

Safe and solid at the top with Rizzo, Betts, Bogaerts, Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz and Peralta. This was where Jimmy shined. Superstars supplemented by Grandal, Tim Anderson and Justin Turner. Not much to knock, here.

Starting Pitching: D

I don't think Corbin can repeat what he did last year (246 ks in 200 innings). His velocity actually dropped from 92 to 90. He's likely being over-drafted across the board. Eovaldi has never sustained success in his career; same goes for Matz. Sonny Gray could bounce back in Cincinnati. Obviously he had a rough go in New York. I don't know who Freddy Peralta is. There are too many Peraltas who throw exactly the same way in the MLB. Maybe Samardzija could bounce back for San Fran, or maybe he's just finished. Time will tell.

Relief Pitching: A

This could be an A+ if Strop remains the Cubbies' closer. I know they are looking at Kimbrel, and Brandon Morrow will eventually return to action. Treinen is a top-two closer and Cody Allen's job is safe with the Angels.

Overall: B

Team: The Legend
Manager: John Frascella

Let's see how the Commish did...

Hitting: A-

After opening last year's draft with money picks in Aaron Judge and J.D. Martinez, Coach Frascella flopped with a third-round selection of Dee Gordon. Don't chase steals, early! This season he didn't make the same mistake, opening with Freeman, Machado, Correa, Castellanos, Chapman and Haniger. Bats, bats, everywhere. Commish ended up weak in steals, where he'll look to Cesar Hernandez (19 SBs), Joey Wendle (16), Machado (14) and Kiermaier (10 in an injury-shortened season) for some swipes. C.J. Cron and Palka mashed a bunch of dingers. Gregory Polanco is a high-upside stash.

Starting Pitching: B

Waiting until Round 7 for his first pitcher, The Legend picked up Bumgarner, who -- in the past -- was consistently a 2nd-4th round selection in our league. He joins fellow "safe" pick Kyle Hendricks, along with strikeout lefties in Robbie Ray and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Charlie Morton struck out 201 in 167 innings, and is on more juice than the Kool-Aid Man. Gausman and Alex Wood were grabbed for stash value.

Relief Pitching: B+

Like Coach Summer, Coach Fro isn't buying the Reds' story about Raisel Iglesias' mix-and-match role. They'll need him to save tight games for them. Barnes (96 ks in 61 innings) could potentially save an awful lot of games for the defending-champion Red Sox. I also have Strickland, Romo and Holland.

Overall: A-

Team: Overrated Fro's
Manager: Ross Schneidman

"Rudy" seemed to be struggling without his perennial captain, Jose Reyes.

Hitting: B-

Very similarly to Billy Valeriano's Twin Towers squad, Ross' Overrated Fro's are top heavy, offensively. Ross is super safe up top, with Trout, Benintendi and Hoskins. However, after that, he'll be relying heavily upon Puig and Contreras. It's all downhill after that initial five. Ross will need Amed Rosario and Adalberto Mondesi to breakout in major ways. Waiting in the wings is Vlad Guerrero Jr., the game's best prospect. Dead weight in Bour, Bird, Reddick, Hernandez and perhaps even Pujols.

Starting Pitching: C-

In terms of worst starting staffs, it's awfully close with Rockville Rube, thus far. To ask Wheeler to be a fantasy ace is pushing too far. As many of you saw in my texts with Ross: Darvish is shaky, Arrieta is declining, Weaver sucks and Cobb is in a terrible fantasy situation. Rusty made a solid late value pick in Derek Holland, and will need breakout seasons from electric youngsters, Julio Urias and Alex Reyes. It will be difficult for this staff to work out as presently constructed.

Relief Pitching: A-

Jansen has heart issues to worry about, but he's still one of the safest and most reliable closers in the game. Minter's injury opens up the full-time Braves' closing gig for Vizcaino, who I happen to like a lot. Colome appears to be beating out Herrera for the ChiSox's job. Very solid group, here.

Overall: C+

Team: Team Piazza
Manager: Jimmy Herold

Piazza's all-in on injured Dodgers - Seager coming off injury and Kershaw suffering through it now. Let's see...

Hitting: A-

This is a tricky-but-interesting group to evaluate. Goldschmidt, Carpenter, Shaw, Markakis and Smoak are the safe veteran plays, relative to where they were drafted. Soto, Olson and Mancini are the upside youngsters. Seager and Odor are wild cards, in that we don't exactly know what we will get from them. Jake Bauers seems to be getting some preseason hype, so we'll see if he delivers on that in any substantial way.

Starting Pitching: D-

One word...yikes. Jimmy HAS to get Kershaw on the hill and completely healthy. Otherwise he's totally done in the starting pitching department. Porcello is the only relatively reliable commodity of the rest, with Trevor Williams as his third-best starter? Matt Strahm will have to arrive in a major way.

Relief Pitching: B

We can bump this up to a B+ or A-, if and when Kimbrel signs on a dotted line and gets back on the bump as a full-time closer. Shane Greene and Will Smith will hold it down for Jimbo in the meantime.

Overall: B-

Team: Fightin' Zyls
Manager: Matt Zylbert

He's the best MLB over/unders guy in the country. Let's see how he did in fantasy...

Hitting: C+

And C+ might be a little generous. Bryce Harper is a no-brainer at the top of the heap, but Zyllie Cat will be asking an awful lot of 2018 surprises like Jesus Aguilar, Max Muncy and Profar. All three are regression candidates, though I think Profar will benefit from the expansive gaps in Oakland. He's a gap-to-gap line drive hitter. Ramos and McMahon were drafted too early. Schwarber never delivers on his name value. Christian Walker might as well be Christopher Walken or Luke Skywalker. Or both names put together. Adam Jones is over the hill and Matt Adams is a part-time player.

Starting Pitching: A

If he had better 6th and 7th starters, this definitely would have been an A+. Five guys in prime stages: Thor, Bauer, Buehler, Flaherty and Lucchesi. Most of them have room to grow and improve, too. If he goes with Heaney and Velasquez over Montas and DeSclafani, maybe this really is an A+ unit. "The Cat" knows pitching.

Relief Pitching: B-

This is a B or B+ if Boxberger beats Wily Peralta out for the Royals' closing job. Zyllie has Aroldis Chapman leading the way at this position. However, Steve Summer has much better luck than Matthew Zylbert, so Peralta will probably beat Boxberger out, in the end.

Overall: B

Team: The Rhombuses
Manager: Christopher Pearsall, Esq.

In the past, Chris has leaned on elite starting pitching, like Zylbert. Let's see which strategy he chose to employ this season...

Hitting: B-

J.D. Martinez and Altuve are two of the best all-around hitters in the game, but Pearsall's offensive core is vet-heavy. There are a number of guys inching toward the end of their primes - if some haven't already passed theirs, like Frazier, Gordon, Gardner, Kemp and Kinsler - while Peraza and Marte are two of the only upside offensive performers on his roster. Kemp is a 4th outfielder, Frazier is a bum and Rhombus has SIX players who hit .246 or less last season.

Starting Pitching: B+

This is easily an A- if Foltynewicz comes back healthy. Right now, Chris is super top-heavy with studs: Sale, Carrasco and Berrios, supplemented by steady vet Jon Lester. There's no depth here, though. Fulmer and Lamet are down for the count. Stroman's arm is shot.

Relief Pitching: B+

Osuna and Giles have safe roles, while the Phillies are talking about Robertson like the Reds with Raisel - "he won't be a traditional closer." At crunch time, I still feel like Robertson will be The Guy for Philly. The only difference is...the Reds don't have a legit second option like Seranthony Dominguez. This kid is electric for Philly. He'll get his opportunities in the lower-leverage games, at least.

Overall: B

Team: Brodie Van Hollywood
Manager: Mark Rue

After a multi-year hiatus, welcome back Mark, best known around these parts as "Mark Bills"!

Hitting: B-

The artist formerly known as "Mr. HD" has a bunch of nice hitters, but where is the superstar upside? Stanton and Bellinger will most certainly lead the way for him, but they are surrounded by capped guys like DeJong, Laureano and Miggy (always injured, now). Mark needs his Phillies - Realmuto, Franco and McCutchen - to produce at or above expectations.

Starting Pitching: B

This could really be a B-, but Mark has some killer dance moves. We'll give him the tiebreaker and go with a solid B, here. He starts off really strong with Nola, Clevinger and Glasnow, but the talent and reliability drop off from there. Will German have a rotation spot for long? Will Pineda ever stay healthy and pitch consistently well? Lot of question marks in this group.

Relief Pitching: D

Hicks isn't going to be a full-time closer with Andrew Miller around. May will likely close for the Twins, but he'll be on a short leash. There is absolutely no depth, here.

Overall: C+

Team: Flawless Fantasy
Manager: Jamie Garland

"Hymee" is currently worried the Mets will go 0-162. He's commonly concerned about the worst-case scenario.

Hitting: B

This is really close to a B-. Arenado is as safe as they come, but I'm not sure Votto is elite-elite anymore. Only 12 homers in 503 ABs last season. He seems more focused on taking walks than being a star producer who earns his keep. Dozier dropped off a cliff last season. He strikes out way too much. I like Domingo Santana and Chris Taylor, but I worry about Donaldson and Gallo. Donaldson may be over the hill, and Gallo kills your overall team batting average. This is a generous B, perhaps.

Starting Pitching: A-

Hymee is set up for pitching glory with deGrom and Taillon atop his rotation. Tanaka makes for a rock-solid No. 3, with Chacin, Junis and Anibal as appropriate mid-rotation arms. Peacock could be a real sleeper, too. Keller tossed the ball nicely last season, as well.

Relief Pitching: D-

Mr. Garland better hope Bradley gets the D'Backs' closing gig. Otherwise, there are no saves here.

Overall: B

Team: Bichette Happens
Manager: Mike Rut

Welcome to our first-time manager, the man who still talks about hitting a triple off my hanging knuckleball. Let's see if some rookie hazing is in order...

Hitting: C

Mikey has world-class speed with Trea Turner, Hamilton and Inciarte, but he completely lacks in the power department. He'll need a return to top form for Gary Sanchez, as well as a breakout season from Victor Robles in Washington. His util is full of old bums.

Starting Pitching: B+

Scherzer is an absolute monster up top, with Price and Hill as solid veteran lefties. Mikolas is coming off an outstanding campaign but could regress, while Chase Anderson has been somewhat steady in the middle of Milwaukee's rotation. Dallas Keuchel is a smart stash, and Sabathia is coming off a surprisingly strong season.

Relief Pitching: B+

Hader and Andrew Miller are arguably the premier left-handed relievers in baseball, but are either true closers? This isn't a holds league, but these guys will keep your ERA and WHIP down. Wade Davis is old, but he's been a stalwart MLB closer for many years. He's a proven commodity.

Overall: C+

Team: King Martin
Manager: Matt Desantis

Marty is my right-hand man, and the Vice President of "The Legend" Enterprises.

Hitting: B+

"Marty" is very steady, all the way through his lineup. It never jumps out and WOWs you, but it maintains its productivity to the bottom. Kris Bryant, Yelich and Pham will lead the way, with steady assistance from vets Posey, Braun, Hosmer, Segura and Choo. Lamb and Hicks, both productive players, are waiting in the wings.

Starting Pitching: B+

Kluber, Greinke, Hamels and Quintana are safe up top, but it drops off a bit from there. Skaggs, Gibson and/or Gonzales will have to deliver for this to become an A- or A- rotation.

Relief Pitching: F

No closers. Marty is all-in on starting pitching. Good luck with that.

Overall: B

Team Grades by Category

Hitting: Tancredi B+
Steve A-
Alberts A-
Billy A-
Jimmy/Tommy A
Fro A-
Ross B-
Jim Herold A-
Zylbert: C+
Pearsall: B-
Mark: B-
Jamie: B
Mike: C
Marty: B+

Starting Pitching: Tancredi C-
Steve B+
Alberts B-
Billy A
Jimmy/Tommy D
Fro B
Ross C-
Jim Herold: D-
Zylbert: A
Pearsall: B+
Mark: B
Jamie: A-
Mike: B+
Marty: B+

Relief Pitching: Tancredi A+
Steve D+
Alberts B
Billy B+
Jimmy/Tommy A
Fro B+
Ross A-
Jim Herold: B
Zylbert: B-
Pearsall: B+
Mark: D
Jamie: D-
Mike: B+
Marty: F

Overall: Tancredi B+
Steve B+
Alberts A-
Billy B+
Jimmy/Tommy B
Fro A-
Ross C+
Jim Herold: B-
Zylbert: B
Pearsall: B
Mark: C+
Jamie: B
Mike: C+
Marty: B

Best of luck, my friends!

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