Monday, July 8, 2019

Kawhi & PG to the Clippers! Frascella's Analysis & Updated Win Projections

Photo Credit: Clutchpoints.com
Exactly a week ago, I analyzed the NBA offseason and projected team win totals. In response, my buddy Chris Laporte wrote, "I think you probably should have waited for Kawhi's decision to hit post."

Well, that decision has finally arrived and it comes with some extra hot sauce:

Kawhi Leonard AND Paul George to the Los Angeles Clippers???!!!

Just like that, the NBA is flipped upside down - again. Since we know Kawhi is the perfect get for Doc Rivers and his Clippers -- and there isn't much to say that isn't overtly obvious about his impact -- I'll just jump right to the blockbuster "PG" trade analysis...

Part I: The Clippers Get Paul George

On paper, we know exactly what this does -- it gives the Clippers two superstars and immediately rockets them into a perceived top three or four contender for the 2019-20 NBA title. Mind you, however, that the Thunder just had Paul George and Russell Westbrook for two seasons and couldn't get out of the first round of the playoffs. 

I'm just sayin', this isn't a golden ticket...you don't just magically appear in the Finals after this trade. There's no question the Clippers had to do something like this, but I'm not entirely sold on George as a No. 2 closer for a championship team. 

Down 2-0 to the Blazers this postseason, in desperate need of a season-saving victory, George went 3-of-16 from the floor, and was bailed out by Westbrook's 33 points and 11 assists on 50% shooting. OKC went on to lose the series in five games. 

Down 3-2 to the Jazz the postseason before, George went 2-of-16 for five points -- FIVE. POINTS. -- as his Thunder lost by (fittingly) five points, 96-91, in a game they should have won, had George played even one-third as well as he could have. Westbrook has 46 points and 10 rebounds in that loss. 

So, the point is not (A) Westbrook is better than George -- I'd still take PG over Russ, though not by as much as others -- or (B) George isn't going to play well for the Clippers; the point is actually (C) The Clippers will cruise to a high playoff seed, but, deep into the playoffs, Kawhi may not like what he sees from PG. Kawhi may have to go back into Raptors mode in the end. 

But then again...there's my boy Lou Williams! In a devastating pick-and-roll fest with monster Montrezl Harrell, Lou Will took two playoff games off the Warriors at full strength. Sweet Lou's never-ending bag of offensive tricks puts opposing D's on ice skates, so he's an ideal guy to have behind Kawhi and PG. If PG's not ready to back Kawhi up in the big spots, Lou will gladly take the rock (no pun intended). Those three, and Harrell, will be on the floor at crunchtime. Rivers will play the matchups with the fifth man, whether it's Patrick Beverley, Moe Harkless or Landry Shamet. Ivica Zubac could be used against bigger teams, too. For now, this club is just eight deep; but it's a balanced and strong eight. 

These Clippers won't end up like the failed Thunder because (A) Kawhi is far more controlled and simply better than Westbrook and (B) Rivers is lightyears ahead of Billy Donovan as a head coach.

Only injuries will keep the Clips -- ahh! Did someone say "Clippers injuries"? CP3 and Blake flashbacks! -- out of the Western Conference semifinals, at the very least. Read on to the end for my new projected win total. 

Part II: The Thunder Get Gallinari, Gilgeous-Alexander, 4 Unprotected 1st Round Picks & 1 Protected 1st Rounder

Who knows what to think about GM Sam Presti at this point, right?

He was the "guru" behind the original OKC trio of Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. Then he was the "mastermind" and "genius" behind the all-powerful foursome of Westbrook, Durant, James Harden and Serge Ibaka. Then he was the idiot who chose Ibaka over Harden, long-term. Then Westbrook alone. Then Westbrook and George. So many iterations. Constantly reshaping his roster. 

Now it's rebuild time. Let's think this through...

What if he doesn't give George to the Clippers? Are the Clips anything close to a dominant team in the West? Kawhi didn't choose the Lakers, so we don't have a frightening superteam in the conference. Instead, you'd have Kawhi with a bunch of role players, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Westbrook and George, then the true "teams" like the Nuggets, Jazz and Blazers.

What if Presti had just improved the team around his two superstars? The Thunder were 22nd in the NBA in three-point percentage. Steven Adams can't shoot a ball outside two feet of the rim. How about catching your roster up with the times?

Or was firing Donovan the best way for Presti to improve his team?

There's an argument to be made for keeping the Westbrook/George duo together; but the other side of this debate is probably the right one. For whatever reason, the talented tandem wasn't producing playoff victories. It's tear-down time, and Presti's off to a strong start with five (potentially) valuable draft picks. Gilgeous-Alexander showed a lot as a rookie, too. This was my initial gut reaction to the deal:

If Westbrook is ultimately traded for future assets, Gallinari will step into the primary scoring role alongside Dennis Schroder; regardless, in the short-term this team is sunk. You aren't going anywhere in this West with Gallinari, Schroder and Adams as your best players and leaders. If they keep Westbrook, they are in a similar boat with the depleted Warriors. Let's take a look at my updated win projections:

John Frascella's NBA Win Projections as of 7/8/2019

Eastern Conference

1. Milwaukee Bucks: 55-27
2. Philadelphia 76ers: 53-29
3. Indiana Pacers: 49-33
4. Brooklyn Nets: 48-34
5. Boston Celtics: 46-36
6. Toronto Raptors: 43-39
7. Detroit Pistons: 42-40
8. Orlando Magic: 41-41
9. Miami Heat: 40-42
10. Chicago Bulls: 38-44
11. Atlanta Hawks: 36-46
12. New York Knicks: 29-53
13. Cleveland Cavaliers: 19-63
14. Washington Wizards: 18-64
15. Charlotte Hornets: 16-66

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Clippers: 58-24
2. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
3. Los Angeles Lakers: 52-30
4. Utah Jazz: 51-31
5. Portland Trail Blazers: 50-32
6. Houston Rockets: 47-35
7. San Antonio Spurs: 46-36
8. Golden State Warriors: 44-38
9. New Orleans Pelicans: 43-39
10. Oklahoma City Thunder: 42-40 with Westbrook (19-63 without)
11. Dallas Mavericks: 42-40
12. Sacramento Kings: 41-41
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: 34-48
14. Phoenix Suns: 28-54
15. Memphis Grizzlies: 21-61

I hope you enjoyed reading! Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @MetsDepression or Instagram at frotography21. All reasonable sports debates are welcome!
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