Sunday, August 4, 2019

A Year in Review, Part II: Why the Mets Haven't Reached Their Full Potential



After winning seven consecutive games and converting from sellers to buyers overnight, the Mets finally lost a game Friday, falling 8-4 to Starling Marte (3-run homer) and six innings of decent work from the Pirates' Trevor Williams (3 runs, 4th win).

But they bounced back quickly last night, behind a MONSTER performance from Wilson Ramos, who went 4-for-5 with a home run and six RBI. Marcus Stroman was shaky in his Mets' debut, but Justin Wilson picked up the win in relief, as New York beat Pittsburgh 7-5. With eight wins in their last 10, the Mets are currently four games back in the NL Wild Card race.

In Volume I of my Mets' season in review, I used my preseason tweets at GM Brodie Van Wagenen (@GMBVW) to summarize events and make key realizations about the Mets' sub-optimally managed roster. Some quick takeaways:

1. Manny Machado ($30 million), D.J. LeMahieu ($12 mil) and Craig Kimbrel ($10 mil) are making $52 million combined this season; that compared to Jed Lowrie ($10 mil), Jeurys Familia ($8 mil), Robinson Cano ($24 million) and Ramos ($8 million) who are making $50 million total. Van Wagenen should have had long-term interest in Machado, and the Wilpons should have allowed him to spend.

2. The Mets could have easily kept their three elite prospects - Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay - and fielded a better roster than the one they have now.

3. Moves I suggested in tweets that Brodie "copied": (1) Didn't start Pete Alonso in the minors, the way Sandy Alderson did; (2) Signed Ramos; (3) Signed Lowrie; (4) Didn't trade Noah Syndergaard; (5) Didn't include Jeff McNeil in the Cano trade and (6) Didn't trade Amed Rosario in a package for J.T. Realmuto. Coincidences, I'm sure.

Okay, let's get into my tweets from the regular season...
THE VERDICT? False hope.

That's a tweet from a better time - a time where Cano was hitting .1000 with an exciting homer off (arguably) the best pitcher of his generation. Now, many months later, Cano is hitting .245 with a laughable .289 OBP...and still hitting cleanup! And oh yeah, he only has nine homers since then, three of which came in one game against the Padres.

Brodie and his front office team simply didn't realize what they had in McNeil (.334 BA, leading the league) at second base; if they did, I'm sure they would have thought twice about bringing in a washed-up, 36-year old bum at the same position.

THE VERDICT? Losing organizations rest their young players too often.

This drove me nuts, all throughout the first half of the season. Alonso waited patiently for his turn in the big leagues, then opened the season going 3-for-4 in game two, 2-for-4 in game three and homering in game four. Then he's "resting" in game five? A 24-year old needs to rest that early in the season? It's just utter nonsense. This speaks to the title of my piece, as a way Brodie and Mickey Callaway held this club back from where it should have been.

As a frame of reference, the Atlanta Braves won the NL East last season and Freddie Freeman - their franchise player, then 28 years old - played all 162 games. The Dodgers won the NL and Cody Bellinger played all 162 games. The Mets have completely mishandled playing time throughout this up-and-down season.

The second tweet speaks to another recurring issue - pre-planning moves without any room for adjustments. Brodie and Mickey managed this club like robots - this is our plan, and we're stickin' to it. Doesn't matter if the plan sucks and is costing us victories. The Astros, Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox don't do that - the elite organizations are always adjusting in real time. A baseball season is a living, breathing, evolving organism. "The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry."

THE VERDICT? Mickey isn't smart enough to become a quality MLB manager.

Have you ever heard him speak in interviews? Have you ever heard him try to come up with "coachspeak" on the spot? Have you ever seen him try to manage his bullpen in a tight game? Have you ever seen him...bat his team out of order??

Like I said, Mickey Callaway is a nice guy. He's a "baseball guy," generally speaking. But he's not Joe Maddon, Terry Francona, A.J. Hinch, Dave Roberts, or even an up-and-coming skipper like Aaron Boone, Rocco Baldelli, Alex Cora or Chris Woodward. He's none of those guys. Mickey simply doesn't have the capacity.

One of the biggest, most obvious issues is that he's unable to evaluate and rank the talent on his own roster. As a big-league manager, you need to know your players' strengths and weaknesses like the back of your hand. Mickey doesn't have the skillset to excel in this position.
THE VERDICT? I was wrong...but the Wilpons still found a way to hurt Mets fans.

Vargas ended up being one of the Mets' best and most consistent starting pitchers, with a 3.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year. But then, in another embarrassing inside job, Brodie traded him to the division-rival Phillies for the Wilpons' family friend, minor league catcher Austin Bossart.

One would think, in the middle of a supposed playoff race with one of the worst bullpens in professional baseball history, that you'd want to keep Vargas and use him as a reliever. That would seem to provide more value than a kid who is hitting .205...two levels below the major leagues. Instead, this was another team-killing salary dump by the stingy Wilpons.



THE VERDICT? Washed-up veterans have cost the Mets a playoff spot.

Like Callaway, Todd Frazier is a nice guy. Here's a happy photo of us together. I have absolutely nothing against him personally, but he's 33 years old and hitting .236. Last year he hit .213. The year before that, he also hit .213. As I tweeted directly to Brodie throughout the season, the guy is finished. He kills the club.

Davis, on the other hand, is 26 years old and batting .294. I saw this coming way back on May 1 - the Mets would have won more games with Davis playing every day, and Frazier serving as a sort of veteran bench coach. (Aside, Brodie's low-cost signing of Davis is probably his best move to date.)

The point is...the lineup matters. Using the optimal everyday players matters. Brodie and Mickey needed to identify their core of Alonso, McNeil, Michael Conforto, Rosario, Davis and Dominic Smith, then run with it. Too much playing time, and too many losses, wasted on detrimental vets like Cano, Frazier, Carlos Gomez and Juan Lagares. All of these little things matter. The Mets left too many wins on the table - for no good reason at all.

Speaking of Lagares, Gomez and other bums...




THE VERDICT? I did everything I possibly could to get Brodie and Mickey to manage properly.

Again, I can't say it enough - Alonso, McNeil, Conforto, Rosario, Davis and Smith. That was, and is, the true core of the 2019 Mets' offense. Brodie and Mickey simply didn't realize. Too much "resting" of those guys. Too much platooning. Not enough talent evaluating or cutthroat managing. Play for the win every day. Forget about Keon Broxton, Lagares, Frazier and Gomez. YUCK.



THE VERDICT? The same as Volume I...Brodie is influenced by fan tweets.

I finally got him to take Rosario seriously as a hitter. Look at Rosario's steady improvement, year over year: from .248 to .256 to .281 in batting average. From .271 to .295 to .322 in on-base percentage. From 4 to 9 to 11 in homers (though his rookie stint was only 46 games).

The kid can hit! And he's rapidly improving. And...he's still just 23 years old. Amed's development is extremely encouraging for Mets fans.



THE VERDICT? The Mets like dropping good players and getting nothing for them.

As we discussed in Volume I, d'Arnaud has been one of the Rays' most valuable players, and they have 10 more wins than the Mets. This Mets' roster had so much potential. Sign Machado and Kimbrel, keep d'Arnaud, keep Kelenic, Dunn and Kay for the future. This was a very real possibility, if funds were managed properly:

1. Jeff McNeil - RF
2. Michael Conforto - CF
3. Pete Alonso - 1B
4. Manny Machado - SS
5. Travis d'Arnaud - C
6. J.D. Davis - 3B
7. Dom Smith - RF
8. Amed Rosario - 2B

No dead weight playing time from Cano, Lagares, Frazier, Gomez or Broxton. AND you're set up for the future with Kelenic, Dunn and Kay.



THE VERDICT? Stroman should be good in the NL...but he isn't what you think he is.

Brodie wrote of him, "We were able to add Marcus Stroman, one of the best pitchers in baseball."

BAAAAAAMP, wrong!

Stroman has a 3.77 lifetime ERA - that is not elite. Last year with the Jays he had an UGLY 5.54 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He was actually one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

This season has been an entirely different story, as Stroman has sparkled with a 3.07 ERA and a well-deserved trip to the All-Star Game. But keep looking back. He's up and down. 4.37 ERA in '16, 3.65 ERA in '14. The fluctuation comes from the fact that Stroman pitches to contact. In six seasons, he's never struck out a batter per inning, which is generally a good barometer of a pitcher's swing-and-miss stuff. When you pitch to contact, results can vary.

Yesterday I said to Steve Summer, Mark Rue and Jamie Garland - fellow Mets superfans - that Stroman is somewhat similar to Vargas; the latter was an all-star in '17 with 18 wins, then ballooned to a 5.77 ERA in '18 before coming back down to 3.93 this year. Stroman's reputation belies his actual results. How much of an upgrade do the Mets really have, here?


THE VERDICT? The Mets continue to shoot themselves in the foot. Cano should be batting 7th or 8th.

What more can I say, here? Davis and Rosario need more respect in this lineup. Cano needs to bat where his putrid numbers indicate he should bat. Again, Brodie and Mickey not making the necessary adjustments.


THE VERDICT? That pretty much sums it up, doesn't it?

This is a fitting way to wrap up, as the Mets could easily have 60-70 wins right now, as opposed to the 54 they actually have. It all comes down to management - identifying your key assets and leaning on them. Maximizing the talent on your roster. Using your resources to their fullest possible extent.

So what's the good news, Mets fans?

We're still only four games out. Crazier things have happened.

Ugh...Alonso is "resting" today. Nevermind.
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