Thursday, August 1, 2019

A Year in Review, Part I: The Mets' Frenzied Season in 11 Fro Tweets



Believe it or not, the New York Mets didn't trade Noah "Thor" Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler at Wednesday's MLB trade deadline.

Believe it or not, Brodie Van Wagenen and Mickey Callaway's Mets have won seven games in a row.

Believe it or not, these Mets are goin' for it. Very recently considered a laughingstock, they are now just four games back in the NL Wild Card race.

Let's take a look at how we got here, via 11 of my (typically) passionate tweets:

THE VERDICT? Accurate.

Both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado lingered on the free agent market before finally signing with the Phillies and Padres, respectively, but the Mets were never serious players for either. Some Harper to the Mets rumors did pop up, but they never had any real steam. The same goes for both Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel, who sat there, available, all the way into regular season play.

Other organizations might look at a young, offensive core of Peter Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith and think, wow, we might just be a superstar or two away from being serious contenders. Machado, who recently turned just 27, seemed like an awfully good fit, with Alonso, McNeil and Rosario lightly penciled into the other infield slots. Machado has displayed gorgeous glove work at both 3B and SS, which would have been particularly helpful given Rosario's defensive deficiencies at short. Rosario could have moved to, 2B, 3B or the outfield, or Machado could have helped him along - mentally and physically - at short.

Machado, who currently has 26 HR and 206 TB despite opting to play his home games in a pitcher-friendly park, would have made for a near-perfect franchise player in his prime.

Other organizations might look at a promising core of starting pitchers like Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler and Steven Matz and think, wow, we should probably spend some money on quality relief pitching to complement our starters. Instead, Kimbrel - one of the greatest closers in the history of the game - remained unsigned until June 7, when the Mets' bullpen was already considered a league-wide laughingstock.

What could have been, without giving up top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay in future trades (and without the unbearable albatross, Robinson Cano)...AND without giving away Travis d'Arnaud (13 HR, 44 RBI in just 202 AB) for nothing...AND without dumping unnecessary payroll on Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie:

1. Jeff McNeil - OF or 2B
2. Michael Conforto - OF
3. Peter Alonso - 1B
4. Manny Machado - SS
5. Travis d'Arnaud - C
6. Amed Rosario - 2B or OF
7. Brandon Nimmo or Dominic Smith - OF
8. Todd Frazier - 3B

And that's keeping Kelenic, Dunn and Kay, and without making any subsequent moves (which would have happened, had this scenario played out). Starting pitching:

1. Jacob deGrom
2. Noah Syndergaard
3. Dallas Keuchel
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Steven Matz

This version of the club has the Mets in much better shape for the future.

In fairness, the Wilpons deserve just as much blame as Brodie here - or more - because their unwillingness to sign primetime free agents forces their GMs to pursue other avenues.

THE VERDICT? Probably accurate, but I'll be reasonable - let's give Brodie a little more time.

What we like about Brodie, so far:

1. He's not complacent. He wants to make an impact. This in comparison to Sandy Alderson, whose "big" acquisitions one recent offseason were Frazier, Jason Vargas and Anthony Swarzak. Alderson never really seemed to mind when the Mets performed poorly. He was a textbook company man, carrying out the wishes of his bargain-basement bosses.

2. He wants to win. He throws chairs when he loses. He must've been channeling this scene from Moneyball.

3. He's confident. It may be false bravado, but that's better than losing quietly and/or not caring.

What we DON'T like about Brodie, so far:

1. Virtually every other organization in the MLB is placing immense value on prospects, for obvious reasons: (A) cheap labor in the early years of their big-league tenure; (B) high upside with low risk and (C) if you build a core of talented young players, you can maintain assets, financial flexibility and long-term success. Of course, the Astros are currently the best example of this.

And yet, Brodie shows no signs of keeping up with the times. His Mets are doing the exact opposite - trading their best prospects for vets, one of whom is arguably the worst and least valuable all-around player in the league (Cano, duh).

2. His front office team is behind the eight-ball in both analytics and player development. The Mets have an 82-year old pitching coach (Phil Regan). The Wilpons don't really "believe" in analytics (what is it, a myth?). This front office got NOTHING for Travis d'Arnaud. The Dodgers picked him up and quickly flipped him for cash. That happened because Brodie and his cabinet were unable to evaluate d'Arnaud's perceived value on the open market. That's something they need to know about most of their players, if not all.

THE VERDICT? You can't cage an animal that belongs in the wild.

Peter Alonso is 24 years old - he had to wait too damn long to get the call up to the big leagues. Rosario debuted for the Mets at 21. Conforto and Dom Smith were 22. Nimmo and Tomas Nido were both 23. Why did the "Polar Bear" have to wait longer than everyone else?

Obviously, a lot of the Wilpons' decision-making was financially based in this case, but Alonso had 31 HR and 119 RBI in just 478 minor league AB last season. No call up? He couldn't have helped last year's hapless Mets through a brutal stretch in the middle of the season? The year before he had 18 HR, 63 RBI and 27 2B in just 353 AB.

The kid was Major League ready. We all knew it. The Mets knew it, internally; instead they held on to a few extra bucks.

This season Alonso has arrived as a man on fire, winning the Home Run Derby and boasting 34 HR (third most in the game) and 77 RBI in the regular season. He's a natural-born leader who oozes positive energy and the necessary drive to become a megastar. He's the most exciting Met in a long, long time.

Ya can't keep a good man down for long.




THE VERDICT? Brodie definitely reads tweets from Mets fans.

Okay, I blew this one - but who knew Lowrie was going to break down physically? Boasting 23 HR and 99 RBI, he was coming off the most productive season of his 11-year MLB career. It simply hasn't worked out. He hasn't played a single game in a Met uniform.

Ramos has been solid with runners in scoring position, but he's a weak defensive catcher who clogs up the bases every time he gets on. d'Arnaud is making $555,000 with the Rays; Ramos is making $7.25 million this year and $10.25 the next. Those were resources better used elsewhere.

The good news is...I have Brodie's ear! Maybe he read that tweet, since we ended up with both Lowrie and Ramos. 😉

THE VERDICT? I think I gave sound advice, and Brodie followed it again.

Home runs are flying out of big-league ballparks at a record rate, and even before the "magically" juiced baseballs, the old saying was you can never have enough quality pitching.

deGrom is a true ace - one of the best of the best. Syndergaard has had an up-and-down '19 campaign, but he's still a solid No. 2 with outstanding postseason numbers in a small sample (2.42 ERA, 36 Ks in 26 IP). Wheeler and Matz produce fluctuating results, but Wheeler has deadly pure stuff and Matz is a lefty who throws 93-95 with a nice, big, slow breaking ball. They have upside for mid-to-back rotation starters. This is a foursome worth trying to keep together; and now we can add Marcus Stroman to that already-talented group.

THE VERDICT? Thank God Brodie didn't include McNeil in that deal.

And I stand by what I wrote..."Kelenic and Dunn? I wouldn't." That still stings. Imagine if Mac ended up in there, too?

Of course, McNeil is currently 3rd in the majors with a .331 BA, just fractional points behind DJ LeMahieu and Christian Yelich for the overall lead. (Speaking of LeMahieu...he was just as available as Lowrie, right? Ouch.) Without Mac, the Mets would be out of the Wild Card race, selling players instead of buying. He plays all over the diamond and brings that Murphy-esque bat, day in and day out. A true blue-collar grinder.

Down in the minors, Kelenic is hitting .283 with 16 HR, 24 2B and 16 SB in just 329 AB. He's widely considered one of the best all-around prospects in baseball, now. Dunn has a 3.59 ERA and 119 Ks in 100 innings of work. These losses burn, especially when you get back dead weight in Cano and Edwin Diaz struggling through the worst season of his life. Speaking of Diaz...

THE VERDICT? I don't know my ass from my elbow.

Diaz's fall from grace has been shocking to behold, but Billy Valeriano, one of our Hot Takes Team's Senior Analysts, nailed this one from the beginning. In this article, he said, "Why trade the prospects? Sign Kimbrel, Robertson or Miller. Diaz only had one great year. All I'm saying is...I don't want my closer to have a 3.50 ERA."

Billy was basically right, except...Diaz is even WORSE than he projected, with a 5.14 ERA and unacceptable 1.45 WHIP from a closer. Maybe, like many before him, he just can't pitch in New York? Maybe the bright lights are too bright?

Personally, I think Diaz's stats will normalize over the course of the next year and a half, because he's never been this bad. The highest ERA of his career was 3.27. This 5.14 comes out of nowhere.

Obviously, if the Mets are serious about making a run for the postseason, Diaz will have to be the closer he was in Seattle. Only time will tell, as far as that is concerned.

THE VERDICT? Realmuto is hitting .270 with 14 HR. d'Arnaud has (basically) the same stats in 150 less AB.

So yeah, we didn't need to trade for Realmuto, despite the 1,000 articles speculating a possible deal during the offseason. Alonso, McNeil and Conforto are franchise cornerstones, and Rosario has displayed dramatic offensive improvements.

Nimmo, on the other hand - what happened to this kid? He's been hurt for quite some time now, but prior to injury he couldn't touch a baseball. The plethora of holes in his swing really got exposed by big-league pitching (and scouting reports). I'm not sure he's an important piece, going forward.

It's a win for the Mets that they didn't lose Conforto or Rosario, though.

And those are all tweets PRIOR to the MLB season. Be on the lookout for Volume II in the coming week!
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