Monday, July 1, 2019

John Frascella's NBA Free Agency Report Cards and Projected Win Totals

Photo Credit: Clutchpoints.com

That was the wildest day in the history of NBA free agency. So much to talk about, so little time...let's go!

Eastern Conference

Milwaukee Bucks

2018-19 Record: 60-22
2019-20 Frascella Projection as of 7/1/2019: 55-27

Key Addition: Robin Lopez (C+)
Key Loss: Malcolm Brogdon

Lopez is an NBA big, but not much else. He's a good defender who finishes well within 3-5 feet of the rim, but doesn't extend his game much, nor does he offer much in the way of versatility. I'm not sure about the impact of pairing him with his twin brother, Brook. It didn't seem to bother them much in college, but to me, this still creates a little bit of a sideshow.

Toronto Raptors

2018-19 Record: 58-24
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 43-39

Key Loss: Likely Kawhi Leonard

If and when the Raptors officially lose Kawhi, Masai Ujiri will have to scramble for some swingman scoring. Still available are Jabari Parker, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Morris and JaMychal Green. Slim pickings. They should probably pull the trigger on Jabari.

Philadelphia 76ers

2018-19 Record: 51-31
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 53-29

Key Additions: Al Horford (A-), likely Josh Richardson (B) & Kyle O'Quinn (D+)
Key Losses: Jimmy Butler & JJ Redick

I like the defensive implications of pairing Horford with Joel Embiid. When engaged, Embiid is an absolute eraser in the paint, and Horford is a master of angles and positioning. If you're in the East, you're not going to have fun attacking Philly's paint. Offensively, Horford is an elite passing big man, and he'll keep the rock bouncing from Embiid to Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris and others. This should be a good fit, but Philly needs to address the shooting absence of Redick. If the Jimmy Butler trade goes through as planned, Richardson will help the Sixers in both perimeter shooting and defending. This could be a dangerous defensive team.

Boston Celtics

2018-19 Record: 49-33
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 46-36

Key Additions: Kemba Walker (A) & Enes Kanter (B+)
Key Losses: Kyrie Irving, Al Horford & Terry Rozier

It's fair to say that the Kyrie/Kemba debate is splitting hairs, but Horford is a big loss in leadership, rebounding, passing and team atmosphere. The Celtics are also losing Terry Rozier and possibly Marcus Morris, two aggressive and productive contributors. They are trending downward, but will expect Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward to fully exert themselves as all-around impact players. Personnel losses can be distracting; sometimes other players just step up when they get more minutes and touches. Time will tell for many teams in this regard.

UPDATE at 2:52 p.m. EST: Boston has added Kanter to replace Horford. Clearly, Horford is the superior all-around player, but I've always been a big Kanter fan. He's relentless on the offensive glass, constantly providing second chances and momentum-shifting hoops. I honestly think Kanter is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Don't forget - he gave the Blazers a real lift during their postseason run after Jusuf Nurkic went down. Kanter has real value; multiple teams were vying for his services.

Indiana Pacers

2018-19 Record: 48-34
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 49-33

Key Additions: Malcolm Brogdon (B+), Jeremy Lamb (B)
Key Losses: Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph & Thaddeus Young

So, let's see...the Pacers are now looking at a lineup of Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, Lamb, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner? Hmm, rather interesting. Of course they'll need Oladipo at 100% health to get to the next level, but overall I'd say they've slightly improved their chances to thrive. Brogdon -- a huge loss for Milwaukee -- is more disruptive and impactful than Collison, and Lamb is three years younger than Bogdanovic and probably coming off his best year as a pro. Don't forget...head coach Nate McMillan did a helluva job with Oladipo sidelined last season. McMillan can squeeze a lot out of a little, and this core is more than "a little".

Brooklyn Nets

2018-19 Record: 42-40
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 48-34

Key Additions: Kevin Durant (A), Kyrie Irving (A-), DeAndre Jordan (B+), Taurean Prince (B) & Garrett Temple (B)
Key Losses: D'Angelo Russell, Shabazz Napier, Treveon Graham, Allen Crabbe & DeMarre Carroll

Cha-ching! Yeah, I'm a Nets fan and I really do need to celebrate. But...as a Mets and Jets fan, the pessimistic little voice in the back of my head is whispering, what if Durant comes back in a year and immediately gets hurt again? We Nets fans are just going to have to hope that doesn't happen. Durant is either the best or second-best basketball player in the world, and we're just going to have to hope he's still that when he returns. In the meantime, Kyrie will hold down the fort as the Nets look to capitalize on the wide open field that is the Eastern Conference. LeBron left a year ago; now Kawhi is likely to follow suit. With Durant sidelined for the 19-20 campaign the Bucks and Sixers should be considered the favorites in the East, but the remaining Nets should be highly competitive. The better teams in the East will read the flow of the season; if they can go for it all -- think the Sixers adding Butler and Tobias last year, or the Raptors getting Marc Gasol -- then they will.

Orlando Magic

2018-19 Record: 42-40
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 41-41

Key Addition: Al-Farouq Aminu (B-)

So the Magic are basically the same team as last year, just with Al-Farouq Aminu? No offense to the kid, but he's not the answer. Offensively he's always been wildly inconsistent; defensively he can be disruptive but his impact is fleeting. He's a nice NBA player, but I don't see a magical team transformation here.

Detroit Pistons

2018-19 Record: 41-41
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 42-40

Key Addition: Derrick Rose (A-)

I love this signing for Detroit. Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin have been leading the way in the frontcourt, but this club has consistently fizzled out due to a lack of backcourt production. Rose is off an inspirational bounce-back year; the bounce was literally back in his step. If it were up to me, he'd overtake Reggie Jackson and I'd probably look for a trade partner for the latter. They need a culture change in the backcourt.


Charlotte Hornets

2018-19 Record: 39-43
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 16-66

Key Addition: Terry Rozier (B+)
Key Losses: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb & Tony Parker

I happen to like "Scary Terry" an awful lot, but he's not Kemba Walker. Rozier will likely be a monster in fantasy basketball, but let's get real here - the Hornets are in full rebuild mode now. Kemba and Lamb Chop accounted for a significant chunk of their offensive output. The Hornets may very well be the worst team in the East at the moment.

Miami Heat

2018-19 Record: 39-43
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 40-42

Key Addition: Likely to add Jimmy Butler (A)
Key Losses: Likely to deal Josh Richardson & Goran Dragic

I mean, this Heat team was awfully scrappy this past season, and I don't mean that in a good way. They were trying to make the playoffs in the East -- a conference which had multiple franchises tanking simultaneously -- and they simply couldn't get the job done. In theory, Butler alone should get them over the playoff hump...but think again. The Bucks, 76ers, Nets and Celtics will be considered playoff locks. Personally, I can't see the Pacers missing the postseason. The Raptors, despite losing their megastar, are the defending NBA champions with an elite head coach and maximum team effort. That's six. That puts the Heat in a playoff battle for scraps with the Pistons, Magic, and perhaps even the Hawks, Knicks and Bulls. Pat Riley and the Heat openly say they have no interest in tanking, but where, exactly, is that getting them?

Washington Wizards

2018-19 Record: 32-50
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 18-64

Key Addition: Moritz Wagner (B)
Key Losses: Bobby Portis, Trevor Ariza & Tomas Satoransky

Oh boy. It ain't lookin' good in Washington. Jabari Parker is also a free agent, and John Wall is coming off Achilles surgery (back in February, the earliest). Total tank job coming here. They'll be wayyy down at the bottom of the conference this year. Bradley Beal against the world!

Atlanta Hawks

2018-19 Record: 29-53
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 36-46

Key Additions: Evan Turner (C+) & Allen Crabbe (C-)
Key Losses: Taurean Prince & Kent Bazemore

I love the young pick-and-roll duo of Trey Young and John Collins, but the Hawks haven't done much to improve the talent around them. Rookie Cam Reddish is going to have to make a major impact. They'll miss Prince's active defense and three-point marksmanship. I want to consider the Hawks a playoff contender, but their front office's inactivity suggests another season of tanking if things don't break their way in the early going. That would be welcome news for Riley, Erik Spoelstra and the Heat.

Chicago Bulls

2018-19 Record: 22-60
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 38-44

Key Additions: Thaddeus Young (B) & Tomas Satoransky (B-)
Key Loss: Robin Lopez

It was a curious signing of Satoransky, given the fact that the Bulls already have Kris Dunn on their roster, and they just drafted PG Coby White with the 7th overall pick in the draft. Zach LaVine likes the ball in his hands, as well. Yet and still, the combination of Thaddeus and Satoransky is a clear personnel upgrade over the loss of Robin Lopez. Chicago's front office decided to stick with veteran head coach Jim Boylen because they believe something clicked down the stretch of last season; now he has a couple more useful pieces to work with. Let's see what he does with them. If these Bulls play hard and stay healthy, I believe they can compete for a playoff spot.

Cleveland Cavaliers

2018-19 Record: 19-63
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 19-63

No action, yet? Off the top of my head, I remember that Alec Burks and Marquese Chriss are free agents -- both contributed in positive ways for last year's Cavs squad. Rookies Darius Garland and Kevin Porter are ultimately the key additions, here. This is clearly another tank year for Cleveland. It probably isn't encouraging when Collin Sexton is your best player (yeah, I think he'll be as good or better than aging, struggling Kevin Love).

New York Knicks

2018-19 Record: 17-65
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 29-53

Key Additions: Julius Randle (A-), Taj Gibson (B), Bobby Portis (B+), Reggie Bullock (B-), Wayne Ellington (B) & Elfrid Payton (C+)
Key Losses: DeAndre Jordan, Lance Thomas, Emmanuel Mudiay, Noah Vonleh, Luke Kornet & Henry Ellenson

Well...just compare those two lists. The players coming in are far better than those departing. It all depends on your perspective -- is this offseason a win for the Knicks because they clearly improved their team, or is it a resounding loss because the beautiful dream of Zion Williamson, Durant and Kyrie never materialized into a reality?

Judging by the overwhelmingly negative social media reaction -- as well as many angry texts I received -- I'd say Knicks fans are bordering on clinical depression. However, performance will improve with Randle and rookie R.J. Barrett leading the way for David Fizdale's slowly improving team.

And let me tell you - Fizdale is going to have his hands full this season. How the hell is he going to manage this rotation? At point guard, you have a four-way position battle between Dennis Smith Jr., Payton, Allonzo Trier and Frank Ntilikina. In a vacuum, they all have debatable merits. Of course, the Knicks' brass will want Smith to start because they traded Kristaps Porzingis for him. He clearly has the upper hand for the starting job, but Smith did nothing to distinguish himself from Trier or Mudiay down the stretch of last season. I doubt he's much better than Payton or Ntilikina in different ways, either.

At shooting guard, well, is Barrett going to start at shooting guard or small forward? Decisions, decisions. He clearly shoots and possesses ball skills like a two, but his size, length and physicality allow him the versatility to comfortably play the three, if wanted or needed there. He shouldn't be in a battle for playing time with anyone, but his starting position impacts everyone else on the roster.

Let's say it's Smith and Barrett...who next? Reggie Bullock, Wayne Ellington or Kevin Knox? Damyean Dotson is also a swingman, and he was easily one of New York's top reserves last season. He's not in the mix to start, but he should garner some minutes off the pine. That's four guys getting PT in this slot.

Then there's the elephant in the room...the Knicks signed Randle, Portis and Gibson on the same day, and they all play the same position. Of course Randle will be asked to be one of the "stars" of this team, but exactly where and how do Portis and Gibson fit in? I think the Knicks should just play Mitchell Robinson at center and leave him alone. He has some explosive ability, but these power forwards will steal minutes from him when Fizdale is going small. I count 12 players who deserve minutes in some way, and that doesn't include Ntilikina, who really should get some minutes as a project. Skillset wise, he's not a total bust. He needs to be coached and developed into value.

On the bright side, GM Scott Perry has done something rather savvy -- he's inked a number of contracts that are supremely easy to move. Gibson and Ellington are veterans who can help better teams during serious playoff runs. Payton and Bullock could be enticing that way, too. Only Barrett, Randle, Smith, Robinson, Portis and Knox should be considered "safe" in Knicks uniforms. Everyone else is a potential trade piece the second this season goes south.

Anyway, I guess I could go on forever about these messy Knicks. The reality is that they've improved their talent pool this offseason. The question is...will confidence levels drown in there?

Western Conference

Golden State Warriors

2018-19 Record: 57-25
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 44-38

Key Addition: D'Angelo Russell (A-)
Key Losses: Kevin Durant & Andre Iguodala

These Warriors are tricky. Initial reaction seemed to be wow, they were lying in the weeds then grabbed Russell when no one expected it! But now, it seems Russell's time with the Warriors may be rather short. They believe he's easily movable via trade, and most believe he's a bad fit for Golden State's speed, conditioning, pace and defense. Sure, D-Lo jacks up a ton of threes like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, but other than that, he's not a Warrior-type player. A re-trade does seem to make sense, here. The jury is still out on this Warrior roster.

Denver Nuggets

2018-19 Record: 54-28
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 53-29

Like the Cavs, there's been no action here. Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap were re-signed. Mike Malone is going to bring his boys along as a collective unit. Inactivity is probably smart in this instance. Murray, Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, Will Barton, Malik Beasley and others need to continue to grow together.

Portland Trail Blazers

2018-19 Record: 53-29
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 50-32

Key Additions: Mario Hezonja (C-), Hassan Whiteside (A-) & Kent Bazemore (C+)
Key Losses: Evan Turner, Enes Kanter, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard & Seth Curry

For the most part, this personnel swap seems like a wash; though Portland may have weakened itself just a tiny bit. The Whiteside trade was timely with Jusuf Nurkic injured and Kanter signing with the Celtics, but I'm not particularly enamored with Bazemore nor Hezonja. Terry Stotts' squad is gonna need productivity from Rodney Hood and Zach Collins.

Houston Rockets

2018-19 Record: 53-29
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 47-35

Jimmy Butler would have been the key get, here. He probably assumed he'd end up in a fistfight with James Harden at some point. Instead, Butler's opting for Miami's scorching scenery. He ain't interested in that stress.

Utah Jazz

2018-19 Record: 50-32
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 52-30

Key Additions: Mike Conley (A-), Bojan Bogdanovic (A-) & Ed Davis (A-)
Key Losses: Jae Crowder, Grayson Allen, Ricky Rubio & Derrick Favors

I think Indiana is Utah's Eastern Conference mirror - both franchises consistently fly under the radar, but they are well-managed and can sneak up on teams that get more press and notoriety. Quin Snyder has some tricky decisions, here...go completely small and start Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles at the forwards? Let Bogdanovic run the second unit with Ed Davis starting at power forward? Let Ingles run the second unit? I think that's probably the best fit...Conley, Mitchell, Bogdanovic, Davis and Gobert starting with Ingles carrying the bench, accompanied by Royce O'Neale and Georges Niang. This is a solid squad. Don't sleep on them.

Oklahoma City Thunder

2018-19 Record: 49-33
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 45-37

Key Addition: Mike Muscala (D)

We can't really call Muscala a "key" addition. He's just an addition. The Thunder are stuck in basketball purgatory with Billy Donovan and Russell Westbrook.

San Antonio Spurs

2018-19 Record: 48-34
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 44-38

Key Addition: DeMarre Carroll (B-)

Carroll is a very Spurs-like veteran. This doesn't change much about their overall outlook, though.

Los Angeles Clippers

2018-19 Record: 48-34
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 43-39

Key Loss: Garrett Temple

Doesn't look like they are getting Kawhi Leonard 😭.

Sacramento Kings

2018-19 Record: 39-43
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 41-41

Key Additions: Dewayne Dedmon (B), Cory Joseph (C+), Trevor Ariza (B) & Richaun Holmes (C+)
Key Loss: Willie Cauley-Stein

Looks like the Kings are hoarding big men. Sure, Cauley-Stein is moving on, but they've added Dedmon, Holmes and Ariza to a frontcourt that already feeds minutes to Marvin Bagley, Harry Giles, Harrison Barnes and Nemanja Bjelica. To be honest with you, I feel like all seven of those guys actually deserve playing time. New head coach Luke Walton's rotational situation is similar to David Fizdale's in New York. I'm not entirely sure that these are good problems to have. The Kings will go as far as De'Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield and Bagley can take them. This doesn't feel like their time, yet.

Los Angeles Lakers

2018-19 Record: 37-45
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 62-20

Key Additions: Anthony Davis (A+), Troy Daniels (A-), probably Kawhi Leonard (A+++) and possibly Danny Green (B) and Andre Iguodala (A)
Key Losses: Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Reggie Bullock, Mike Muscala, JaVale McGee, Lance Stephenson & Moritz Wagner

It looks like they are getting Kawhi Leonard 😭.

If that comes to fruition, there's no point in playing this NBA season. It's Lakers all the way.

Minnesota Timberwolves

2018-19 Record: 36-46
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 34-48

Key Additions: Shabazz Napier (B-) & Treveon Graham (D+)
Key Losses: Derrick Rose & Taj Gibson

Remember when the Wolves were the talk of the town with Tom Thibodeau, Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins?

Yuuuup. Well, um, that didn't last very long. Thibs is out of sight, out of mind, Butler suddenly stopped caring about winning (I mean, why else would he pick Miami?), Towns has developed a reputation as a Charmin soft player and Wiggins just isn't very good. These current Wolves aren't very good, either.

Memphis Grizzlies

2018-19 Record: 33-49
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 21-61

Key Additions: Jae Crowder (B-) & Grayson Allen (B+)
Key Loss: Mike Conley

Allen was the sneaky part of the Conley deal; I like what I saw from the crafty, versatile swingman as a rookie. Keep an eye on this kid, because the minutes are available to him with a rebuilding Memphis squad.

Of course, the real get this offseason is the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, electric point guard Ja Morant. I'm just worried another De'Aaron Fox-type player isn't good enough for this franchise. I see a lot of similarities between those two young, explosive guards. But are their shooting ceilings limited?

New Orleans Pelicans

2018-19 Record: 33-49
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 43-39

Key Additions: Brandon Ingram (A-), Lonzo Ball (B), Josh Hart (C+), JJ Redick (A-) & Derrick Favors (B+)
Key Losses: Anthony Davis, Elfrid Payton & Julius Randle

The Pelicans moved Davis -- one of the top seven or eight basketball players in the universe -- and actually got better this offseason. Randle played well, but was never a good fit for New Orleans' roster construction. This organization wasn't getting anywhere with Davis, either. I think he's soft, and he's not a franchise closer.

Now they have Zion Williamson, and I think he'll play with more power, fire and passion than Davis ever did. Davis is so long, athletic, versatile and talented that he never really had to play with a chip on his shoulder. Zion, on the other hand, plays with pure fury. He's a "gift from God," as Coach K said, and he arrives in New Orleans at precisely the right time.

So, how will head coach Alvin Gentry shake out these minutes? Ingram, whom I really like, will have to be one of the go-to scorers for this young, developing squad. The veterans, Jrue Holiday and Redick, will chop up the scoring load with Ingram and Zion, while getting team-first contributions from Favors and Ball. I like this team's top six players; Frank Jackson, E'Twaun Moore, Kenrich Williams and Jahlil Okafor have rotational value, as well. The Pelicans will undoubtedly be one of the most interesting teams in the NBA this season.

Dallas Mavericks

2018-19 Record: 33-49
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 42-40

Key Addition: Seth Curry (B)

The fate of this franchise rests in Kristaps Porzingis' monstrous hands -- can he stay healthy? Plain and simple. I'm worried he's becoming another Yao Ming, of sorts. All the talent and size in the world...maybe too much size to be relied upon to stay healthy as a franchise player?

Phoenix Suns

2018-19 Record: 19-63
2019-20 Frascella Projection: 28-54

Key Additions: Ricky Rubio (B+), Dario Saric (C+) & Frank Kaminsky (C+)
Key Loss: Richaun Holmes

I felt Igor Kokoskov got a bit of a raw deal after just one season on the job -- it's not like the Suns were built to win last season, right? -- but Monty Williams makes for a more seasoned NBA replacement. This Rubio, Devin Booker, Kelly Oubre, Saric, Deandre Ayton lineup is going to be awfully interesting for him to work with. Phoenix won't magically get there over night, but it is most certainly trending in the right direction. Rubio will create flow for this offense, while taking some over-usage away from Booker. These transactions will allow Booker to play with even higher efficiency.

John Frascella's Win Projections as of 7/1/2019

Eastern Conference

1. Milwaukee Bucks: 55-27
2. Philadelphia 76ers: 53-29
3. Indiana Pacers: 49-33
4. Brooklyn Nets: 48-34
5. Boston Celtics: 46-36
6. Toronto Raptors: 43-39
7. Detroit Pistons: 42-40
8. Orlando Magic: 41-41
9. Miami Heat: 40-42
10. Chicago Bulls: 38-44
11. Atlanta Hawks: 36-46
12. New York Knicks: 29-53
13. Cleveland Cavaliers: 19-63
14. Washington Wizards: 18-64
15. Charlotte Hornets: 16-66

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers: 62-20
2. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
3. Utah Jazz: 52-30
4. Portland Trail Blazers: 50-32
5. Houston Rockets: 47-35
6. Oklahoma City Thunder: 45-37
7. San Antonio Spurs: 44-38
8. Golden State Warriors: 44-38
9. Los Angeles Clippers: 43-39
10. New Orleans Pelicans: 43-39
11. Dallas Mavericks: 42-40
12. Sacramento Kings: 41-41
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: 34-48
14. Phoenix Suns: 28-54
15. Memphis Grizzlies: 21-61

I hope you enjoyed reading! Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @MetsDepression or Instagram at frotography21. All reasonable sports debates are welcome!
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