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Frascella's NL East Predictions
NL Central
AL West
AL Central
AL East
5. San Francisco Giants
2019 Record: 77-85
2020 Vegas Over/Under (via Odds Shark): 68.5
Frascella's Projection: 67-95
Management: Don't underestimate the power of Bruce Bochy. He's a calming influence and extremely experienced leader, and now he's retired. The Giants will miss him, desperately. They had no business winning 77 games last season - they had (arguably) the most washed-up roster in the MLB. Bochy tends to squeeze extra wins outta his teams. I can't say I have anywhere near the same faith in Gabe Kapler, who completely flopped out of Philadelphia.
Position Players: Lately, my initial instinct with this club has been, what the hell is this front office doing? Why do they want so many has-been players, when the rest of the league is leaning young and explosive? But it's just a little different this time around. The Giants have some youth - and some hope - with outfielders Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, as well as 2B Mauricio Dubon. I don't think we're lookin' at world-beaters here, but Yastrzemski was surprisingly productive in his debut last season, and of course he's the grandson of Hall of Famer, Carl Yastrzemski. He may have to be this club's best player. The "treading water" guys are still here, like Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Pablo Sandoval. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Pitchers: Gone is longtime ace Madison Bumgarner. Bochy and Bumgarner - that's two of the most important guys to this franchise. These are major hits in leadership and reliability. Johnny Cueto is back and Jeff Samardzija is fine, but the rest of this rotation is shaky at best. Kevin Gausman would need to juice to come back alive. His arm has fallen off in recent years, and he's been terrible. Youngster Tyler Beede - a "Zylbert guy" - is done with Tommy John. This bullpen is a mess. Probable closer is, I guess, lefty vet Tony Watson. Talk about a hodge podge of scrap arms.
4. Colorado Rockies
2019 Record: 71-91
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 74.5
Frascella's Projection: 76-86
General Thoughts: Why doesn't Coors Field help this club? Yeah, the Rockies can be tough at home and their offensive players end up with juiced statistics, but how the hell did they only win 71 games last year? I think of it this way...their pitchers are used to pitching at Coors; conversely, opposing pitchers are dreading the trip to Colorado - so why doesn't it end up as an all-around advantage for the Rocks? Shouldn't it be such a delight for their guys to pitch on the road? I dunno, I don't get the whole thing.
Position Players: I mean, you know the story here, right? Veteran stars Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon lead the way, alongside prime producer Trevor Story, one of the top fantasy shortstops in the game. Daniel Murphy can still hit, but he's clearly on the backside of a quality big-league career. Once and for all, outfielder David Dahl has to stay healthy. Kid can rake, but who cares if he only ends up playing half the games? Ryan McMahon and Sam Hilliard are the possible upside kids, here.
Pitchers: I dunno...this rotation is not that bad. Let's get real, we're talkin' about the Rockies here - two of their best pitchers of all time were Jeff Francis and Jorge De La Rosa - so the bar is set awfully low. German Marquez's stuff is up there with the best the Rockies have ever possessed (alongside Ubaldo Jimenez) and Jon Gray is right there with them; lefty Kyle Freeland is in the mold of Francis and De La Rosa - lefties seem to have better luck at Coors. After a breakout year in 2018, Freeland fell completely off the map last season, but maybe he'll even things out. 2.85 was way too good in '18, but maybe 6.73 was unrealistically bad in '19. Maybe he's a 4.50 kinda guy. Antonio Senzatela's stuff is pretty crappy, but he occasionally runs into a decent streak of 3-4 starts, particularly earlier in his career (like when Dayn Perry of CBS had him ahead of Clayton Kershaw in his rankings). Vet Wade Davis is back in the closer's role - at this point, his arm is completely shot...but ya know what? He's been one of the best relievers in the history of this club. I doubt it will be pretty, but he'll scratch together some saves. Scott Oberg, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee should provide some decent help in the pen. At least they have some recognizable names.
3. San Diego Padres
2019 Record: 70-92
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 82.5
Frascella's Projection: 80-82
Betting Influence: Whoaaaa, Nelly - that 82.5 number just feels like it's jumping the gun. This is a clear reaction to the activity of the Padres' offseason...but what about the quality? Are they "there" yet? Not that 82.5 is screaming World Series contender, but a 12-win jump in a single season is asking an awful lot. I don't see it, yet - 76 to 78 wins are more likely than 82 to 84.
Position Players: By now you probably know they added Jurickson Profar, Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham. I do like Profar - I feel like maybe he under-performed a bit in Oakland (.218 BA, though 20 homers are solid for a 2B), but I have concerns about both outfielders: (1) The Rays are so smart. They got Pham from the Cardinals at exactly the right time - now they part with him after he leads the way as one of their best players? You smell somethin' funky, too? They just have the magic touch. They always seem to know a lot more than we do. Pham's probably (mildly) damaged goods. (2) Same idea with Grisham, no? He was arguably the most touted offensive prospect in the Brewers' system. He gets a call-up one year, and that's it? He's gone? Poof. Maybe they oversold on his ability. Built up the hype to ultimately let him go. It's like a "pump-and-dump" stock outta Jordan Belfort's shop. So yeah, San Diego just needs to keep watchful eyes on both of those guys. This is still, obviously, an improvement to their overall talent level. The three additions join the solid core of Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Fernando Tatis (major upside, here). Catcher Francisco Mejia had some hype on his way up, too. He has the ability and potential to be one of the better fantasy catchers in the National League. Overall, despite my minor concerns, offense should be San Diego's strength.
Pitchers: This has the feel of a rotation that looks better on paper than it actually is. Chris Paddack should be a true ace; so no worries there. It's after Paddack that you can really begin to nitpick. Garrett Richards is back after a longgg injury hiatus, and who knows with this guy? Even when healthy, his performance was wildly inconsistent. The Angels wanted him to be their franchise ace, but the plan never panned out. I'd have to see Richards stay healthy before I put any stock in him. Dinelson Lamet is a flamethrower with some real nasty stuff, but does he have the mental makeup to be a reliable big-league starter? His control is spotty, and his feel for the craft is questionable at best. He has all of the physical tools, but remains a project. Next up is young lefty Joey Lucchesi, who has been the focal point of our offseason debates...
Padres front 3 of Paddack-Lucchesi-Lamet deserves a lot more respect. Theyre better than Cleveland’s top three, at least. Argument could be made they’re the deepest 1-through-5 in the game (Zyl Guy Pomeranz a stud, Richards still has something left in tank, and/or Davies is fine)— Matt Zylbert (@MattZylbert) April 2, 2020
Hahaha, that’s funny Zyl, because Lucchesi’s rotation spot is in jeopardy. He’s a 5th starter or nothing right now: pic.twitter.com/6bgheFvLlt— John Frascella (@LegendSports7) April 2, 2020
Listen we can bet on the side any Lucchesi stats you want. I’ve watched him more than enough to determine he has All Star stuff and the mental makeup to succeed (ie. Look at the K rate in ‘18). When you guys watch him you’ll see— Matt Zylbert (@MattZylbert) April 2, 2020
Not sure what you guys are talking about in reference to Lucchesi's stuff - have you ever seen him pitch? His average fastball as a rookie was 90.4 and 90.2 as a sophomore. He's a soft-tossing lefty which is discouraging for a young kid. I think we're talking about a diff player.— John Frascella (@LegendSports7) April 2, 2020
So yeah, Lucchesi has been a matter of some debate. The Padres' own beat reporters have published that Lucchesi is battling Cal Quantrill for the fifth-and-final rotation slot. The reality is that Lucchesi has been a disappointment, relative to what had been expected of him. He came up as a highly-touted prospect in San Diego's system. And yet, despite the obvious benefits of Petco, he hasn't yet had an ERA under 4.00. That's because his pure stuff is weak. He can't sniff the pure stuff of his own teammates Paddack, Richards, Lamet and - if you've had a chance to see him pitch, you'd know - even young Quantrill. The unnamed man in this rotation is control pitcher Zach Davies, who should be pretty good at Petco. He pitched surprisingly well in spite of Miller Park's hitter-friendly conditions. Kirby Yates and Emilio Pagan make for a very strong back of the bullpen, here. Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen and Luis Perdomo are key contributors, as well. This is actually one of the better bullpens in the NL.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
2019 Record: 85-77
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 83.5
Frascella's Projection: 88-74
General Thoughts: Call this my "hunch" team. Bumgarner going from Oracle Park in San Fran to deadly Chase Field in AZ should be a bad thing. And I'm not really a Starling Marte guy. And I can't really say I'm a Kole Calhoun guy, either. But...this club won 85 games last year. When the hell did that happen? They were a complete afterthought to me. So combine those 85 wins with the fact that their front office worked extra hard this offseason, and I'm just getting "the feel". This feels like a Wild Card team to me. Let's look a little closer...
Position Players: Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar were monsters last season. They absolutely carried Arizona's offense. Ketel finally broke out after years of chatter about his natural ability, but how sustainable is that success? He was the No. 1 ranked fantasy second baseman - is that even close to repeatable? If it is, it'll be because of Chase Field. It enhances guys like Coors. I've always been an Escobar guy - the offseason after Arizona traded for him, I wrote a letter to the Mets' front office asking them to make Escobar their No. 1 free agent priority. That didn't work out because the D'Backs (not surprisingly) decided to quickly re-sign him. Nonetheless, the guy could always rake from both sides of the plate. Obviously I already mentioned Starling and Calhoun in the outfield, and the other key hitters are David Peralta and 1B Christian Walker; the latter could certainly take a big step up this season. Youngster Carson Kelly was far more productive than I ever thought he'd be behind the dish. If Ketel and Escobar can come close to repeating, this will be a solid offensive ballclub.
Pitchers: Bumgarner is joined by Robbie Ray, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Mike Leake and Merrill Kelly. Ray is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league, but his lack of refinement is maddening. He's never been able to polish up. He's the same ol' guy - looks like the best pitcher in the league for a few innings, then blows up and walks three guys in an inning. It's gotta be super frustrating for Arizona's fans. Gallen looks like a steal from Miami - he's certainly one of the game's major breakout candidates. He has wipeout stuff and some real moxie on the hill. I don't like young Weaver's stuff at all, but he pitched surprisingly well last season. Leake is perfectly fine as a No. 5 and Kelly makes for workable depth. I don't really mind their rotation at all; the issue is the bullpen. Archie Bradley needs to tweak his "offseason program". A couple years ago he was lookin' like a certified flamethrower. Now you can kind of tell his arm is shot. He needs to "power back up", you know? Hector Rondon and Junior Guerra both have fluctuating results. I don't particularly trust any of these guys late in games.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2019 Record: 106-56
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 101.5
Frascella's Projection: 110-52
Cue up Mortal Kombat...FINISH HIM!!!
I'm not gonna go crazy analyzing this club - the Dodgers are far-and-away the best team in the National League (at least for the regular season). The smaller sample size of the postseason could always bite them in the ass. But over the long haul of 162, no one is gonna have a better record than these guys.
Position Players: Yes, they added the great Mookie Betts to Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Corey Seager and Joc Pederson. Will Smith and Gavin Lux are two of the absolute best prospects at their respective positions. A.J. Pollock ain't half bad as your worst regular.
Pitchers: Same idea, here - over the long haul of the season, you ain't gonna beat Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias and Wood. Ross Stripling would be a No. 3 starter for alotta teams, and he didn't make this rotation. The Dodgers possess an abundance of riches across the board. Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly and Pedro Baez are gonna nail things down on the back end. This is the best regular season team in the league. Period.
Frascella's FINAL Win Projections (using the 162-game model)
1. Dodgers: 110
2. Astros: 101
3. Twins: 100
4. Braves: 97
5. Yankees: 97
6. Rays: 95
7. Nationals: 93
8. A's: 93
9. Reds: 88
10. Diamondbacks: 88
11. Brewers: 87
12. Angels: 87
13. White Sox: 87
14. Mets: 84
15. Indians: 84
16. Cardinals: 83
17. Phillies: 83
18. Cubs: 81
19. Red Sox: 80
20. Padres: 80
21. Rangers: 77
22. Rockies: 76
23. Blue Jays: 74
24. Giants: 67
25. Marlins: 66
26. Royals: 63
27. Pirates: 57
28. Mariners: 54
29. Orioles: 52
30. Tigers: 50
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