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| Photo Credit: Albert Cesare and Cincinnati.com |
The Players' Association is discussing game action without fans - so let's play ball! Here's how we got to this point:
Frascella's NL East Predictions
AL West
AL Central
AL East
(** Editor's note: Again, we're dealing with 162-game projections, here. The previous posts were all based on 162, so I gotta be consistent. In all likelihood, in reality, we're probably looking at something like 110-120 games. That's my guess, at least.)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
2019 Record: 69-93
2020 Vegas Over/Under via Odds Shark: 69.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 57-105
Management: Yeah, I'm just not seein' it here - these guys got absolutely ripped off in the Chris Archer trade (Tyler Glasnow is looking like a future superstar), and the general direction of this franchise is questionable at best. This NL Central looks awfully competitive - the Cardinals, Brewers and Cubs are always around, and the Reds have improved significantly - and these Pirates are simply falling behind the pack. That 69.5 number looks like a real stretch to me.
Position Players: Obviously big bopper Josh Bell leads the way here, and I saw some good things from OF Bryan Reynolds and SS Kevin Newman as well. But that simply isn't enough. 2B Adam Frazier will need to become more impactful, and OF Gregory Polanco needs to bounce back in a major way. OF Jarrod Dyson will set the table with his blinding speed. Here's the scary part...this offense is the strength of Pittsburgh's thin roster.
Pitchers: No Jameson Taillon this season (Tommy John). Archer has been a bust since coming over from Tampa, and I've never been a Joe Musgrove guy. I mean, honestly, this rotation is kind of an abyss. In the pen, energizer bunny Keone Kela is expected to close. He has good enough stuff, but I wouldn't exactly call him a bona fide closer. Yikes with this club. Just...yikes.
4. Chicago Cubs
2019 Record: 84-78
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 85.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 81-81
Management: Yeah, I wrote a book about Theo Epstein, so maybe I'm a little biased. I've never been particularly impressed by the guy. I'm still kind of astonished at the way everything came together for these Cubs in their magical World Series year. All the chips fell into place. The scouting report on Kris Bryant wasn't there yet. Chicago's pitchers hadn't quite reached the end of their primes. The idiotic Mets failed to bring Daniel Murphy back after his incredible postseason run, and they became a Wild Card team as opposed to a serious contender. The previous playoffs they swept the Cubs out of the NLCS, and they did it without a sweat. Those Cubs didn't belong with those Mets. Anyway, I digress. Now the magic has worn off for this Cubs' core. Collectively, they are just another face in the crowd. I'm gonna give the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals the slight edges, here.
Position Players: Bryant bounced back nicely last season, and Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber make for a fine core. But that's just it - it's fine. It's not as good as people thought it would be. Rizzo is solid and consistent, but to me he isn't the superstar that pundits have often made him out to be. Schwarber is obviously very easy to pitch to because of all of the holes in his swing, and the fact that he swings for the fences no matter what the circumstance. I like Contreras and Baez, but the reality is that this club falls into protracted offensive droughts. This has happened multiple times in recent years, and their collective stock continues to fall. For them to buck the trend and start heading uphill again, they'll need Ian Happ to put together a strong, full season. He's never matched his prospect hype. They'd love a renaissance year from 2B Jason Kipnis, too.
Pitchers: Yu Darvish looked about as good as I've ever seen him during the second half of last season, and crafty Kyle Hendricks is about as consistent as they come. The issues here are veteran lefties Jon Lester and Jose Quintana; is Lester done? Will Quintana ever figure out National League hitters? In a rare statistical blip, Quintana was actually more effective in the AL. In the bullpen, there are similar concerns about veterans Craig Kimbrel and Brandon Morrow - are both of these guys done, too? Kimbrel is coming off the worst season of his potential Hall of Fame career. Morrow can never make it through a year without his arm falling off. There are a lot of question marks on this club.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
2019 Record: 91-71
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 87.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 83-79
Position Players: Paul Goldschmidt is the only guy I can really count on, here. Marcell Ozuna is gone. Matt Carpenter has battled injuries, and his production simply isn't what it used to be. I think this is a weak outfield with Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler, with O'Neill probably being the best of the three. Tommy Edman did some really good things last year, and there's no question the Cardinals need him to repeat that surprising production. I like Paul DeJong, but I'm not a Kolten Wong guy. This offense definitely looks weaker without Ozuna.
Pitchers: Jack Flaherty has emerged as a true, front-line ace. After that, it gets a little messy - I guess Adam Wainwright is the next guy you can count on, to some extent? Miles Mikolas fell back down to earth last season, and Dakota Hudson needs to refine both his control and command. Carlos Martinez is a wild card, as always. Kwang-Hyun Kim may emerge as their third-best starting pitcher. In the pen, they haven't really established a closer. It'll probably be Giovanny Gallegos, who will make for an interesting late-round value in fantasy leagues. Flamethrower Jordan Hicks isn't around (Tommy John) and lefty Andrew Miller is finally fading toward the final fourth of his career. His results have finally tapered off.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
2019 Record: 89-73
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 83.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 87-75
Position Players: These guys always find a way to hit, especially late in the season when the goin' gets tough. Sometimes the Brewers are afterthoughts through the middle of the season, then they explode in the final two months of play. Obviously, Christian Yelich - one of the absolute best players in the world - leads the way, here. Lorenzo Cain and Keston Hiura are back as key contributors, as well. But there have been a number of interesting acquisitions: C Omar Narvaez, 1B Justin Smoak, OF Avisail Garcia, SS Luis Urias and fellow infielders Eric Sogard, Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko. And, well, interesting is the word, right? What do we really have, here? Narvaez is coming off a breakout year with Seattle, so he should be one of the better fantasy catchers (thanks, Miller Park). Smoak tapered off the last year and a half, but Miller Park should also help him. I don't think Urias is ready yet, and Gyorko is only good when he "gets big". I do like Sogard and Holt, as similarly-pesky utility players who contribute in a number of different ways. So, if I have these Brewers beating their over/under, I have to believe in this offense, right? Because it certainly ain't a pitching-dependent club. So, yes, the short answer is this offense should be good enough to go down to the wire with the much-improved Reds.
Pitchers: It's all about Josh Hader. If he keeps doing what he's been doing, he's one of the 4 or 5 most valuable all-around pitchers in the game. You can use him in any high-leverage situation (except, apparently, the Wild Card Game against the Nationals) or you can utilize him as a traditional closer. He's intimidating and lefties basically have zero chance against him. His value combined with the Brewers' offense makes them a contender for this division title. Brandon Woodruff - an old-school, no bullshit, power sinkerballer - leads the way in Milwaukee's rotation. He's considered a major breakout candidate in fantasy formats. The rest of their rotation is shaky. Milwaukee would love for Adrian Houser to breakout, as well.
1. Cincinnati Reds
2019 Record: 75-87
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 83.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 88-74
A Busy Offseason: I've said it before - I don't usually buy into the "hype" teams or the splashy offseasons, but I really like what Cincy has done. Mike Moustakas is a very steady producer and always-respected veteran leader. I'm sure he'll enjoy this banbox of a ballpark. Nick Castellanos raked in this division with the Cubbies. Another steady, reliable guy who will enjoy the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. CF Shogo Akiyama brings some hype from overseas and Freddy Galvis is decent enough at short.
Position Players: The coronavirus hiatus has helped power bat Eugenio Suarez. He wasn't going to be ready for the start of the season; now he has a legitimate shot. He was an absolute monster last season. In addition to the acquisitions, he's joined by Joey Votto and three young, intriguing outfielders: Aristides Aquino, Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker. There's upside here, and maybe Votto will bounce back with added lineup protection from Moustakas and Castellanos. Not sure what to think about Akiyama, yet.
Pitchers: I can't deny it - the Reds have the most balanced club in this division. That's why I'm giving them the slight edge over the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs. This rotation is about as good as it gets in the National League, from top to bottom with Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and veteran acquisition Wade Miley. Tyler Mahle's probably the best No. 6 out there, too. I'm not worried about this rotation at all. My only concern would be the volatility at the back of Cincy's bullpen, with inconsistent results from Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen and Amir Garrett. Iglesias has to pitch cleaner this year.
1. Astros: 101
2. Twins: 100
3. Braves: 97
4. Yankees: 97
5. Rays: 95
6. Nationals: 93
7. A's: 93
8. Reds: 88
9. Brewers: 87
10. Angels: 87
11. White Sox: 87
12. Mets: 84
13. Indians: 84
14. Cardinals: 83
15. Phillies: 83
16. Cubs: 81
17. Red Sox: 80
18. Rangers: 77
19. Blue Jays: 74
20. Marlins: 66
21. Royals: 63
22. Pirates: 57
23. Mariners: 54
24. Orioles: 52
25. Tigers: 50
Pitchers: Yu Darvish looked about as good as I've ever seen him during the second half of last season, and crafty Kyle Hendricks is about as consistent as they come. The issues here are veteran lefties Jon Lester and Jose Quintana; is Lester done? Will Quintana ever figure out National League hitters? In a rare statistical blip, Quintana was actually more effective in the AL. In the bullpen, there are similar concerns about veterans Craig Kimbrel and Brandon Morrow - are both of these guys done, too? Kimbrel is coming off the worst season of his potential Hall of Fame career. Morrow can never make it through a year without his arm falling off. There are a lot of question marks on this club.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
2019 Record: 91-71
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 87.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 83-79
Position Players: Paul Goldschmidt is the only guy I can really count on, here. Marcell Ozuna is gone. Matt Carpenter has battled injuries, and his production simply isn't what it used to be. I think this is a weak outfield with Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler, with O'Neill probably being the best of the three. Tommy Edman did some really good things last year, and there's no question the Cardinals need him to repeat that surprising production. I like Paul DeJong, but I'm not a Kolten Wong guy. This offense definitely looks weaker without Ozuna.
Pitchers: Jack Flaherty has emerged as a true, front-line ace. After that, it gets a little messy - I guess Adam Wainwright is the next guy you can count on, to some extent? Miles Mikolas fell back down to earth last season, and Dakota Hudson needs to refine both his control and command. Carlos Martinez is a wild card, as always. Kwang-Hyun Kim may emerge as their third-best starting pitcher. In the pen, they haven't really established a closer. It'll probably be Giovanny Gallegos, who will make for an interesting late-round value in fantasy leagues. Flamethrower Jordan Hicks isn't around (Tommy John) and lefty Andrew Miller is finally fading toward the final fourth of his career. His results have finally tapered off.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
2019 Record: 89-73
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 83.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 87-75
Position Players: These guys always find a way to hit, especially late in the season when the goin' gets tough. Sometimes the Brewers are afterthoughts through the middle of the season, then they explode in the final two months of play. Obviously, Christian Yelich - one of the absolute best players in the world - leads the way, here. Lorenzo Cain and Keston Hiura are back as key contributors, as well. But there have been a number of interesting acquisitions: C Omar Narvaez, 1B Justin Smoak, OF Avisail Garcia, SS Luis Urias and fellow infielders Eric Sogard, Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko. And, well, interesting is the word, right? What do we really have, here? Narvaez is coming off a breakout year with Seattle, so he should be one of the better fantasy catchers (thanks, Miller Park). Smoak tapered off the last year and a half, but Miller Park should also help him. I don't think Urias is ready yet, and Gyorko is only good when he "gets big". I do like Sogard and Holt, as similarly-pesky utility players who contribute in a number of different ways. So, if I have these Brewers beating their over/under, I have to believe in this offense, right? Because it certainly ain't a pitching-dependent club. So, yes, the short answer is this offense should be good enough to go down to the wire with the much-improved Reds.
Pitchers: It's all about Josh Hader. If he keeps doing what he's been doing, he's one of the 4 or 5 most valuable all-around pitchers in the game. You can use him in any high-leverage situation (except, apparently, the Wild Card Game against the Nationals) or you can utilize him as a traditional closer. He's intimidating and lefties basically have zero chance against him. His value combined with the Brewers' offense makes them a contender for this division title. Brandon Woodruff - an old-school, no bullshit, power sinkerballer - leads the way in Milwaukee's rotation. He's considered a major breakout candidate in fantasy formats. The rest of their rotation is shaky. Milwaukee would love for Adrian Houser to breakout, as well.
1. Cincinnati Reds
2019 Record: 75-87
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 83.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 88-74
A Busy Offseason: I've said it before - I don't usually buy into the "hype" teams or the splashy offseasons, but I really like what Cincy has done. Mike Moustakas is a very steady producer and always-respected veteran leader. I'm sure he'll enjoy this banbox of a ballpark. Nick Castellanos raked in this division with the Cubbies. Another steady, reliable guy who will enjoy the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. CF Shogo Akiyama brings some hype from overseas and Freddy Galvis is decent enough at short.
Position Players: The coronavirus hiatus has helped power bat Eugenio Suarez. He wasn't going to be ready for the start of the season; now he has a legitimate shot. He was an absolute monster last season. In addition to the acquisitions, he's joined by Joey Votto and three young, intriguing outfielders: Aristides Aquino, Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker. There's upside here, and maybe Votto will bounce back with added lineup protection from Moustakas and Castellanos. Not sure what to think about Akiyama, yet.
Pitchers: I can't deny it - the Reds have the most balanced club in this division. That's why I'm giving them the slight edge over the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs. This rotation is about as good as it gets in the National League, from top to bottom with Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and veteran acquisition Wade Miley. Tyler Mahle's probably the best No. 6 out there, too. I'm not worried about this rotation at all. My only concern would be the volatility at the back of Cincy's bullpen, with inconsistent results from Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen and Amir Garrett. Iglesias has to pitch cleaner this year.
ALL of Frascella's Win Projections to Date (using the 162-game model)
2. Twins: 100
3. Braves: 97
4. Yankees: 97
5. Rays: 95
6. Nationals: 93
7. A's: 93
8. Reds: 88
9. Brewers: 87
10. Angels: 87
11. White Sox: 87
12. Mets: 84
13. Indians: 84
14. Cardinals: 83
15. Phillies: 83
16. Cubs: 81
17. Red Sox: 80
18. Rangers: 77
19. Blue Jays: 74
20. Marlins: 66
21. Royals: 63
22. Pirates: 57
23. Mariners: 54
24. Orioles: 52
25. Tigers: 50
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