 |
| Photo Credit: Yahoo Sports |
5. Baltimore Orioles
2019 Record: 54-108
2020 Betting Over/Under: 56.5
Frascella's 2020 Prediction: 52-110
Management: Listen, I was pretty excited when Sig Mejdal took a position in Baltimore's front office (Vice President & Assistant GM), following Mike Elias (Executive VP and GM) from the Astros to the Orioles, but the grand design simply isn't taking shape yet. Between New York and Boston's money, and Tampa's ingenuity, it's always going to be a treacherous uphill battle in this division. I'm sure Mejdal is continuing his cutting-edge ways, but I don't see the transition into big-time talent this early in the process.
Position Players: Trey Mancini is pretty clearly the best player on this club, and I like what I saw from both Anthony Santander and Hanser Alberto last season. However, you look up and down this roster and it just feels light. Renato Nunez needs to be a key producer for this team, and I'm not so sure you can count on him for that. He has a ton of power but he's super raw, and Baltimore probably needs him to polish up faster than he actually will. I think Vegas bumped their win total a bit because Boston is expected to take a step back, but what if Toronto takes an equal step up? They seem to have a better chance at that than the Orioles.
Pitchers: Obviously John Means leads the way after finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. He was really quite good, given his poor team and even worse pitchers' park. Feels like Alex Cobb is pretty washed up at this point; you can't really throw 90 MPH and be successful at Camden vs. the likes of the Yanks and Sox. Soft-tossing lefties Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone are both in the mix, here - aren't they the exact same person? In the bullpen we have a crappy committee, one where Mychal Givens tends to get the most save opportunities. He's just a decent vet; if I'm being kind.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
2019 Record: 67-95
2020 Betting Over/Under: 75.5
Frascella's 2020 Prediction: 74-88
Betting Influence: I'd say Vegas is pretty damn close here, but an 8.5 win jump is still asking a lot in a single season. I just think, in a vacuum, that 75.5 number seems a tad ambitious. Still, coming of age and a couple additions get Toronto awfully close.
Position Players: Is there any question what Toronto's player development model prefers? Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Lourdes Gurriel - bloodlines, baby...bloodlines. Craig Biggio, Vlad Guerrero, Dante Bichette and Yuli Gurriel; yeah, I'd say there's ample reason to believe there's top-notch talent in those families. Of course, the burning question is obvious...how quickly will these kids develop at the big-league level? Is Vlad Jr. already ready to become a star? How about Bichette, who has some electric all-around ability? We just can't know. I personally think it's one season too early. This seems like a situation where bettors will instinctively think over. Seems like a "sexy" pick. I thought the same thing about the Atlanta Hawks in basketball, and they ended up drastically under-performing their over/under. Nevertheless, Toronto is at least trending in the right direction.
Pitchers: Solid veteran pick-ups in Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tanner Roark. Of course, when you go from the NL West to the AL East (Ryu), you can't expect the same results; but Ryu has craft. He'll mix and match and try to keep aggressive hitters off balance. Roark spent plenty of time in the NL with the Nationals and Reds, so he'll need to adjust as well. Still, this is much better than what Toronto had in recent years. Chase Anderson was also added, but I don't expect much from him. His stuff is mundane at best. In the bullpen, I don't mind Ken Giles - even though his results tend to fluctuate from one season to the next - but the rest of the Jays' bullpen is shaky. Giles is kind of a one-man band.
3. Boston Red Sox
2019 Record: 84-78
2020 Betting Over/Under: 84.5
Frascella's 2020 Prediction: 80-82
Maybe this is wishful thinking because I want them to get burnt for dealing Mookie Betts in his prime. Sure the "individual players aren't that valuable" thing is going around, but that only works out when you have elite management like the Rays and A's. Can the Sox really play the same game? They probably feel like they can because they got Chaim Bloom away from Tampa. I guess we'll have to wait and see...
Position Players: It's a three-man show with J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts - but, is Bogaerts really a star? Last season he was tremendous, but in '17 he was an afterthought hitting .273 with just 10 homers. He does seem bulkier, now. Any way you slice it, though, this is still a very strong threesome. They'll need Andrew Benintendi to take a step up, likely hitting out of the leadoff spot. He was nothing to write home about last season; has to live up to some of that early prospect hype. Alex Verdugo, the centerpiece of the return on the Betts deal, is already down with a back injury. He shouldn't be out too long, but this isn't a good start to his tenure. Christian Vazquez is a pretty solid all-around backstop.
Pitchers: No one can feel good about Chris Sale, right? It just feels like his arm is going to eventually fall off. The guy is a battler - constantly fighting back various injuries and giving his best possible effort. I really give him a lot of credit for his competitiveness. However, he's currently "shutdown" with an elbow injury - that's never a good sign. Maybe at some point he ends up out for the season. It's just not a comfortable situation atop Boston's rotation. I'm not overly excited about Rodriguez, Eovaldi and Perez, either. In the bullpen, Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes will again lead the way. I like Barnes a lot, but I'm not sure Workman can repeat his statistical success of last season.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
2019 Record: 96-66
2020 Betting Over/Under: 90.5
Frascella's 2020 Prediction: 95-68
Management: Everybody deserves a mention, here: Stuart Sternberg (Principal Owner), Brian Auld and Matthew Silverman (Presidents), Erik Neander (Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations/GM), Peter Bendix (VP Baseball Development), Barry Newell (VP Business Ops and Analytics), Kevin Ibach (Senior Director of Pro Personnel and Scouting), Rob Metzler (Senior Director of Amateur Scouting), Will Cousins (Director of Baseball Research and Development), Joe Myers (Director of Baseball Performance Science) and on-field Manager Kevin Cash.
This is a total team effort. In the last four seasons, the Rays have jumped from 68 to 80 to 90 to 96 in wins. Simply incredible. I'll probably end up mentioning more Rays' front officers than ballplayers. I mean, who really knows what their special sauce is? We've seen players and teams getting edges from steroids, sign stealing, putting stuff on the ball, shifting, analytics, video taping, etc. So who really knows? Whatever it is, the Rays' management team has it. They have the magic. How about being dead-last in payroll (give or take $64 million) and winning 96 games? The Red Sox spent $225 million and won just 84 games in the same division. Gotta give Tampa all the credit in the world.
Position Players: Again, it's not really about the players with this club. I remember one offseason, perhaps prior to two seasons ago, they unloaded seven of their "best" players. Dick Vitale, one of the few famous Rays fans, was furious. Clearly, the perceptions of "best" and "value" were inconsistent with reality. The Rays actually increased their win total that year. This year, offensively, they'll again be featuring a number of platoons and matchup-based lineups. Tampa's stalwarts should be Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames and maybe Hunter Renfroe. Otherwise you'll be seeing a lot of mixing and matching with guys like Ji-Man Choi, Kevin Kiermaier, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Jose Martinez, Manuel Margot and more of the like. Meadows is the best fantasy play. The rest will be left to the front office and Kevin Cash.
Pitchers: Lot of quality arms here, top to bottom. Can't really argue with Blake Snell, Charlie Morton and Tyler Glasnow atop the rotation, with mix-and-match, "opener", half-and-half options like Ryan Yarbrough, Yonny Chirinos, Trevor Richards and Brendan McKay. This is really an abundance of good arms. Obviously, any year now, Glasnow could emerge as one of the absolute best pitchers in the game. The kid's pure stuff is off the charts. In the bullpen, again, an abundance of quality. Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Jose Alvarado and Chaz Roe are all effective performers. It's hard to screw up a group this deep. Tip your cap to this front office.
1. New York Yankees
2019 Record: 103-59
2020 Betting Over/Under: 101.5
Frascella's 2020 Prediction: 97-65
Position Players: Going into the season with injuries to Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton and even Gary Sanchez has the flu. That word is scary these days. But...last year...the Yankees had 100 injuries and won 100+ games. It's the pinstripe magic. It's the Yankee Stadium magic. It's the history and the reputation, and Manager Aaron Boone did a helluva job. I still cannot believe he didn't win AL Manager of the Year - Rocco Baldelli did a fine job with the Twins, but he was NOT Manager of the Year. Boone made it all happen with scraps and mismatched parts. It was actually one of the best managerial seasons I have ever seen.
Anyway, Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu will lead the way for now, as the Yankees hope for repeat production from Gio Urshela and Brett Gardner in support. Luke Voit and Miguel Andujar will be looking to put together a couple of solid bounce-back seasons. Sanchez and Stanton should be back before we know it.
Pitchers: It all comes down to this bullpen - Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Kahnle, Green, Cessa and Holder. New York holds leads throughout the regular season (the playoffs have been a bit different for some of these guys). This is again one of the absolute best bullpens in the game. In the rotation, obviously Domingo German is suspended another 63 games and Luis Severino is toast, but Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka will hold down the fort in the meantime. James Paxton is expected back in May.
In the end, I kind of like the Rays better than these Yankees, but the pinstripes always find a way. My analytical side says Rays win the division, but my baseball logic and experience both say Yanks. I don't think the BoSox can hang with their pitching. It's Tampa and New York...down to the wire.
No comments:
Post a Comment