Sunday, March 22, 2020

Frascella's 2020 MLB Predictions: AL West

Photo Credit: Yahoo Sports


Coronavirus ain't stoppin' us - let's continue on with the series...

Volume I: American League East
Volume II: American League Central

My Win Projections to Date:

(** Editor's note: Of course, these projections are based on a 162-game schedule, which probably won't happen in its entirety.)

1. Twins: 100
2. Yankees: 97
3. Rays: 95
4. White Sox: 87
5. Indians: 84
6. Red Sox: 80
7. Blue Jays: 74
8. Royals: 63
9. Orioles: 52
10. Tigers: 50

And here...we...go:

5. Seattle Mariners

2019 Record: 68-94
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 67.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 54-108

Betting Influence: I dunno what the heck Vegas is thinkin' - Domingo Santana and Omar Narvaez are both gone, and the injury prognosis for Mitch Haniger isn't at all promising. Who, exactly, do the Mariners have for production? This just feels like a major reach by Vegas; especially with the Angels getting Anthony Rendon and the Rangers improving their pitching with Corey Kluber and Kyle Gibson. Teams will improve in this division, and I can't see how Seattle will be one of them.

Position Players: The Mariners will need breakout years from 1B Evan White, SS J.P. Crawford and OF Kyle Lewis, and I just don't see those breakout years coming this quickly. I really don't see how Seattle is going to score runs. Their best fantasy players are Kyle Seager, catcher Tom Murphy and...Mallex Smith? C'mon, man!

Pitchers: Marco Gonzalez pitched pretty damn well atop this rotation last year, but Yusei Kikuchi was a major disappointment and Kendall Graveman is a real reclamation project. Somebody has to bust out from this trio: Justus Sheffield, Taijuan Walker and Justin Dunn. Again, it feels like we might be reaching here. Could the Mariners actually be the worst all-around team in the AL? Not sure what Vegas knows, that I don't.

4. Texas Rangers

2019 Record: 78-84
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 79.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 77-85

Position Players: I actually like the Rangers' talent in the outfield; see here:
But...and this is a big but...there are a whole lotta strikeouts in this lineup. Can this team possibly hit with runners in scoring position? Todd Frazier is in the last two or three seasons of his career; Rougned Odor could barely even make contact last season; Calhoun still needs to refine his approach and polish up; Ronald Guzman has a long way to go and obviously Gallo is a strikeout king. I like the talent of Calhoun, Gallo, Santana, Choo, Elvis Andrus and Odor - but can they put it together as a collective unit? Especially in tight, late-game scenarios where contact and situational hitting are of paramount importance? Maybe in another division they'd get more than 77 wins, but I don't see it with the Astros, A's and Angels around. (That's alotta A's.) It's gonna be all about the longball for Texas.

Pitchers: Welcome aboard, Kluber and Gibson. I don't think Kluber will be what he once was - especially in his new home park - but he's still an impact pickup for Texas. You need some steady guys atop the rotation. The Rangers also welcome Jordan Lyles, who was a revelation after being acquired by the Brewers last season. He was basically untouchable with a 2.45 ERA. That's awfully hard to duplicate in this division, in this park, though. Still...to go with Lance Lynn and Mike Minor, this is actually a very good rotation. On paper, this may be the best Rangers' rotation I've ever seen. I'm more worried about Texas' situational hitting than its starting pitching. In the bullpen, Jose Leclerc is still around as one of their top dogs, and Rafael Montero - say whaaat? - has emerged as a key reliever. I never thought my Mets had enough patience with him as a converted starter.

3. Los Angeles Angels

2019 Record: 72-90
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 85.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 87-75

Management: Joe Maddon has to change things for this club. It's been messy for quite some time now. Yes, you can't win with a single player in baseball - but the Angels have had Mike Trout in his prime! I've always blamed the front office more than the manager, but now the former has finally come through with Maddon and Rendon. Are those two enough for a quantum leap?

Position Players: I like the potential and flexibility of Maddon's lineup. Like the Rangers, I've already discussed this club on Twitter:

I like my lineups to have a certain kind of texture - not everyone can have true superstars (especially those who can hit for power and average), but the Angels have that right off the bat with Trout and Rendon. You can get an awful lot of run production from those two guys, alone. Then, you gotta have some guys who make contact consistently - batters who build up pitch counts and deliver quality at bats in key spots. Here, that would be Tommy La Stella, David Fletcher, Brian Goodwin and Andrelton Simmons. Then, you have home run thunder from Justin Upton, Shohei Ohtani and future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols. Maddon can really mix-and-match with this group. Injuries can derail the best-laid plans of mice and men, but if they stay relatively healthy, it'll be awfully hard to keep the Angels' offense quiet.

Pitchers: Julio Teheran is just so hittable. Have you seen him pitch in recent years? His fastball is gone. It's all about changing speeds and misdirection now, but can that fly in this league, in this division? I'm sure he'll be good for the first month of the season - before the AL hitters figure him out - but I don't see any sustained success from Teheran. He's gonna get rocked sometimes; maybe even more than sometimes. Dylan Bundy is kind of similar in that, his fastball has already dipped below its initial level of hype. Bundy, despite being just 27 years old, has already become a mix-it-up, change speeds kinda guy. I actually think he will outperform Teheran, but I can't see either acquisition being lights out. Andrew Heaney needs to take the next step up. This club needs that badly. In the bullpen...another Mets' castoff? Hansel Robles leads the way at the back end.

2. Oakland A's

2019 Record: 97-65
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 89.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 93-69

Betting Influence: Hmm...notice a trend, here? Vegas is taking a step back from these analytics nuts. They have the Rays droppin' down from 96 wins to 90.5, and now Oakland dipping from 97 to 89.5. Obviously, the latter has something to do with the Angels' signings of Rendon and Maddon. With the Angels' bump up, they have the A's dippin' down. I understand the logic, but I'm not gonna doubt Billy Beane and these scrappy A's. They've been putting things together in recent years. Sure, they can't seem to get past the AL Wild Card Game, but we're only talking about win totals, here. They've been winning an awful lot of games. Let's see how their personnel looks, this time around...

Position Players: My main man Billy Valeriano doesn't think Marcus Semien can repeat his outstanding production from last season. Okay, maybe he will regress a bit, but the A's still have Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis and Mark Canha as solid producers. Ramon Laureano and Sean Murphy look like the kids with upside, here. Again - like Tampa - it isn't necessarily about the personnel here, either. Beane and his front office team clearly have some magic sauce - do we know exactly what it is? No. It's probably just a combination of various "edges". So, they have some solid position players, and they will likely end up getting more out of them than we'd expect. Good enough, for sure.

Pitchers: Good texture with the foursome of Sean Manaea, Mike Fiers (the whistleblower!), Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt. My gut sense is that Montas has the potential to be the best of the four, but we have to wait and see how he looks without the PEDs. It doesn't always look pretty with Fiers, but he gets the job done. Manaea is an effective lefty when he hits his spots. Oakland's bullpen is pretty stacked with Liam Hendriks, Lou Trivino, Jake Diekman, Yusmeiro Petit and Joakim Soria. I wouldn't put them ahead of the Yankees' electric bullpen, but I'd put them right there with Tampa for the No. 2 spot in the AL.

1. Houston Astros

2019 Record: 107-55
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 94.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 101-59

Outside Circumstances: I'm not going to go on and on about the cheating. The media beat this thing to death all winter. The only question is...what impact does this have on the Astros' results, going forward? Personally, I think they are going to embrace the villain role. One-hundred seven wins are hard to duplicate - especially with the Angels and Rangers improving on paper - but I can't see this club dipping below 100. They still look like the best team in the AL to me.

Position Players: Hard to match Bregman, Altuve, Correa, Springer, Brantley, Gurriel and Alvarez. Strongest group of seven in the league. Only question...will their production taper off without knowing the speed of the incoming pitch? I dunno, overall, I have faith in the true ability of these guys. Out of the group, Bregman, Altuve and Gurriel will really embrace their roles as villains.

Pitchers: The obvious elephant in the room...Gerrit Cole is gone. Over the course of the past two seasons, that was some of the best pitching we have ever seen. Simply out of this world. So yeah, that's a difficult void to fill, but the Astros can win in a number of different ways: with offense, relief pitching, "advanced strategies" and still some starting pitching with Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke and the return of Lance McCullers. Verlander (groin surgery) now has more time to recover due to the coronavirus epidemic, and did you know that Greinke was the fourth-ranked starting pitcher in most fantasy formats last year (behind Verlander, Cole and deGrom)? I had no idea Greinke had been that good. Jose Urquidy has shown some effective craft, too. In the bullpen, they go five deep in quality with Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith, Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock. Joe Biagini shows some nice flashes, as well.

American League: ALL of Frascella's Win Projections

1. Astros: 101
2. Twins: 100
3. Yankees: 97
4. Rays: 95
5. A's: 93
6. Angels: 87
7. White Sox: 87
8. Indians: 84
9. Red Sox: 80
10. Rangers: 77
11. Blue Jays: 74
12. Royals: 63
13. Mariners: 54
14. Orioles: 52
15. Tigers: 50

On to the National League in the coming weeks!
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