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| Photo Credit: Chicago Sun-Times |
Don't forget to check out Volume I, the AL East.
Jumpin' right into this one...
5. Detroit Tigers
2019 Record: 47-114
2020 Betting Over/Under: 56.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 50-112
Betting Influence: This has to be a pure variance thing with Vegas - I don't think C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop justify a near 10-win jump in a single year. Detroit probably lost a bunch of tight games last season, and Vegas assumes more will break their way this season. Still, I can't get there. I can't get to 56 or 57 wins with the White Sox improving, and Tigers not getting much better.
Position Players: Speaking of Cron and Schoop - I actually like the additions. These are buy-low kinda guys who are just looking to avoid platoon situations. Cron started last season as one of Minnesota's most productive players, but injuries derailed a once-promising campaign. When he returned, he was basically an afterthought for the Twins (batting 8th or 9th, at times). Now, with Detroit, Cron wants to be a key cog in the middle of the order. The same goes for Schoop. After bouncing around the last couple years, he's looking for stability and regular playing time. This situation bodes well for both players, but the rest of Detroit's offense is cringe worthy. Jeimer Candelario, Christin Stewart and Travis Demeritte haven't done anything to justify regular playing time yet. Sure, they are young, but they are also unpolished and probably getting opportunities before they should. They simply aren't ready. I liked the Austin Romine pickup behind the dish; but what are we really talking about, here? These are minor improvements that don't justify a nine or 10-win bump up.
Pitchers: Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull showed some promise last season, but I don't think Boyd's is sustainable. His stuff is kind of blah to me. Anybody can have a good half-season if they hit spots and don't walk too many guys, but sustainability is easier with prime stuff. I think Boyd probably regresses back toward the mean. Jordan Zimmermann and Ivan Nova are reliable vets - but not reliable in the way you'd like. We know their approach and we know what to expect from them in terms of deliveries and sequences, but their results never knock your socks off in these twilight stages of their veteran careers. Joe Jimenez leads the way in this weak bullpen.
4. Kansas City Royals
2019 Record: 59-103
2020 Betting Over/Under: 65.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 63-99
Position Players: Salvador Perez is back behind the dish, and he's one of the most valuable two-way catchers in the game. Obviously he brings solid offense for his position, but you also hope he improves the performance of KC's pitchers by calling quality games and bringing a calming veteran influence. So maybe that's where Vegas gets the 6-7 win jump, but I'd worry just a bit about Jorge Soler. I love his physical gifts and pure power, but can he repeat his insanely good production from last season? He has to layoff chase pitches and continue to improve his offensive discipline. Forty-eight homers and 117 RBI - that's a tough act to follow, though. The primary addition here is Maikel Franco over at the hot corner, and this addition is very similar to what the Tigers did with Cron and Schoop - Franco doesn't want any competition. He wants to be left alone to do his thing. The problem is going from Philly's banbox to KC's less favorable hitters' park. I guess it's a trade off - Franco gets a better situation for playing time and stability, and a weaker one for ballpark factors. Overall though, offense is the strength of this club with Perez, Soler, Franco, Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi and the always-impressive Whit Merrifield. This is actually a good offense for a run-of-the-mill team.
Pitchers: The same gang is back with Duffy, Junis, Keller, Sparkman and Montgomery. This is not a good thing. These are all sort of "keep you in the game" type of guys. You can't have a whole rotation full of that. At least a couple guys need to step forward with some dominant performances. The talent just isn't there with this group - they all have some merits and spare parts, but no one puts it together with a full arsenal that allows KC to be a real contender. Ian Kennedy will hold down the back end of this bullpen, which is interesting because, as a starter, he was just like these other guys. He was very mundane and replacement-level. Amazing how that doesn't matter when you only pitch one inning at a time. KC was smart to transition Kennedy.
3. Cleveland Indians
2019 Record: 93-69
2020 Betting Over/Under: 86.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 84-78
Position Players: I apologize if this is an insensitive comment in some way - but the AL Central clearly has a thing for Hispanic and/or international players. The Indians are running out Perez, Carlos Santana, Hernandez, Ramirez, Lindor, Domingo Santana, Mercado and Reyes, with Leon and Chang as reserves. The White Sox are running out Grandal, Abreu, Garcia, Moncada, Luis Robert, Jimenez, Mazara and Encarnacion. Now, don't take this the wrong way, but - I really like this. Many of the Hispanic players seem to have a superior natural flair for the game. It seems second-nature. Pressure isn't felt. They are smooth, powerful and confident, and this can't be a coincidence when it comes to Cleveland and Chicago's roster constructions. Cleveland should be pretty solid offensively, though I would consider Lindor their only real star. Ramirez took a significant step back last season, particularly throughout a putrid first half. He's still the No. 2 man, though. In addition, I've mentioned many times that I loved the Indians' acquisition of Reyes last season. Thunder in his bat. DH suits him well. Both Santanas are nice players. The Indians have kind of flip-flopped here, as the offense has become the strength of their team. The Kluber-Bauer-Carrasco-Salazar days are a relic of the past.
Pitchers: Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber and Carrasco lead the way here, but Clevinger and Carrasco are coming into the season with injury concerns. Knee for Clevinger and elbow for Carrasco. I just don't like starting on shaky ground. Injuries have always been a frustrating issue for Carrasco. Youngsters Aaron Civale and Adam Plutko sprinkled in some nice performances last year, so we'll see if either kid steps up for an entire season. This Indians' rotation just feels different than the good ol' days. It feels lighter. In the bullpen, veteran left-hander Brad Hand is the top dog. He can close or you can play the lefty matchup game with him (though the rule has changed this year).
2. Chicago White Sox
2019 Record: 72-89
2020 Betting Over/Under: 84.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 87-75
Position Players: All right, I'm "buying in" a little, here. I don't usually do this. A lot of the pundits are talkin' up the new-look ChiSox, and I can't say I disagree with them for doing so. I gotta say...wherever Yasmani Grandal goes, good things happen. The guy has reached the postseason five years in a row. I used to bash him because he has many holes in his swing, but he's a pure power-hitting catcher who clearly brings value, regardless of those holes which lead to high strikeout totals. I guess that makes him a "true outcomes" guy. He's joined by top-to-bottom talent; there are no glaring holes in this offense. Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion are the veteran leaders, while Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert bring the youth and explosive talent. I like both Moncada and Eloy to outperform their ADP's in fantasy this season; Robert is obviously the riskier play. We know less about him at this point, and can he hit enough to sustain value? Leury Garcia's a good contact guy; Tim Anderson is developing into a stud at short and Nomar Mazara was a nice pickup from Texas. This is a better spot for Mazara, where less will be expected of him. Texas tried to squeeze him into the middle of the order because he's a good-lookin' lefty bat, but he hasn't had any sustainability as a high-end producer. I like him batting 7th or 8th, here.
Pitchers: Lucas Giolito came out of nowhere to become a true ace for this club last year. His stuff was off the charts. I'm buying in here, too - I think he can sustain it. Dallas Keuchel was a good buy, because maybe he can bounce back in his return to the American League. He should be able to steady the boat. People have to step up in the 3-4-5 slots, though. That's the glaring weakness of this team. Reynaldo Lopez has good stuff but is all over the place, and Carlos Rodon is always hurt. Who is going to step up to turn this into a Wild Card team? Chicago's bullpen features recognizable veteran names in Alex Colome, Steve Cishek and Kelvin Herrera. You could do worse.
1. Minnesota Twins
2019 Record: 101-61
2020 Betting Over/Under: 92.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 100-62
Betting Influence: Say whaaaaaat? Vegas droppin' them down from 101 wins to 92 or 93? And they added Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey and Rich Hill? Vegas thinks highly of Minnesota's competition in this division, obviously (particularly the Indians and White Sox). They definitely like the Tigers better than I do, too. I just think this is too significant a drop for these Twins. This is one of the most complete teams in the American League. Looks like you gotta jump on this OVER.
Position Players: Mitch Garver is one of the best-hitting catchers I've seen in a while. He's a legit force in the box. Nelson Cruz is one of the most underrated hitters in the history of baseball. Talk about a guy that doesn't get any love! What else does he have to do? Just look at his damn stats. The guy is an absolute machine. It's nearly impossible to find a pure power hitter who hits essentially .280 for his career. The extremely rare combination of power and contact and/or situational hitting. Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario are really good ballplayers. Josh Donaldson was a solid veteran addition. Miguel Sano still has potential as an empty power bat.
Pitchers: Well, I already mentioned the veteran additions of Maeda, Bailey and Hill. Hill's a little behind the eight ball in health, but Maeda and Bailey are ready and rarin' to go. Bailey finally looked healthy and strong down the stretch of last season. These vets join Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, who have been high-quality arms for Minnesota. This is a nice rotation to go with a really good offense. The necessary balance is here. The mix-and-match, interchangeable parts bullpen has to work with Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey and Tyler Clippard. Most of them did well enough last year. This is a really good all-around team.
Frascella's Win Projections to Date:
1. Twins: 100
2. Yankees: 97
3. Rays: 95
4. White Sox: 87
5. Indians: 84
6. Red Sox: 80
7. Blue Jays: 74
8. Royals: 63
9. Orioles: 52
10. Tigers: 50
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