Frascella's NFL Top 100, Part 2: Ageless Defensive Players Set the Tone

Photo Credit: Oregon Live

Ryan Tannehill, Von Miller and Raheem Mostert led the way in Part 1 of my NFL Top 100 series. Before we get into Part 2, here's my ranking criteria, again:

1. 50% of the weight: "The Eye Test" - my own personal assessment of the player's talent, productivity and overall impact on winning. This has to come first, otherwise it wouldn't be my list. 

2. 20%: Stats. The raw numbers. 

3. 10%: Impact on winning in pressure situations and most importantly, the playoffs. 

4. 10%: The experts over at Pro Football Focus really know their stuff; they examine every single play of the NFL season, and I trust their detailed analyses. I'm giving 10% of the weight to their 2019 Top 101 NFL Players. 

5. 10%: Recent Pro Bowl selections. Thanks to the coaches, players and fans to their contributions, here.

89. Frank Clark, Edge, Kansas City Chiefs

-Key 2019 Stat: 5 sacks in the playoffs
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Frankie turned it up a notch in the playoffs, wreaking havoc against the Texans with three sacks, then following up with sacks vs. both the Titans and 49ers. His eight sacks during the regular season were decent, but he earned his big money when it mattered the most. He's always been known as a ferocious pass rusher who likes to talk smack and back it up.

88. DeForest Buckner, DT, Indianapolis Colts

-Key 2019 Stat: 7.5 sacks/4 fumble recoveries
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: #82 overall player

Colts GM Chris Ballard (2018 NFL Executive of the Year) ain't messin' around this offseason. He's added Philip Rivers, Trey Burton, Xavier Rhodes and of course Buckner, which means the Colts are in all-out, win-now mode. And lemme tell ya...D-Buck will certainly help ya win now. He gets a shocking amount of pressure from the defensive interior, and he has a real nose for loose footballs. He's a high-effort, high-character teammate. D-Buck will be sorely missed by the 49ers' defense - they may actually take a step back defensively this season.

87. Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

-Key 2019 Stat: 10 receiving TDs (2nd-most in NFL)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #66 overall player

Andrews exploded onto the scene in '19 and established himself as Lamar Jackson's favorite target; particularly in the redzone. Don't get me wrong...I loved having him in my auction fantasy league for $1, but I'm not blown away by the guy when I watch him play. He had seven drops last season - third-most at his position - so that's what caught my negative attention. Yet and still, he was extremely productive and I'd draft him again in a heartbeat. Jackson is expected to lean on him again this year.

86. Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

-Key 2019 Stat: 100 receptions for 1,117 yards
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Fun fact...I was just playing around on Pro Football Reference, perusing some of Edelman's career stats, and...he's never been selected to a Pro Bowl? That seems entirely unfair. Here's a winner. A guy who impacts winning from the regular season all the way to the bitter end of the playoffs. His 1,442 playoff receiving yards are second all time (Jerry Rice is first, of course). At this point, you could go either way with him - if you put him in your top 50, I wouldn't argue...but if you dropped him out of the top 100 without Tom Brady, I couldn't really say much, either. I think we have to be fair, and wait and see how he performs without TB12.

85. Joe Haden, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers

-Key 2019 Stat: 5 INTs (2nd-most in NFL)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

There was a time when he was considered second-best to Darrelle Revis. Those good ole days are gone, but Haden still makes ridiculous plays on the ball. He's a super-smart, cagey veteran whose five picks were tied with studs Marcus Peters and (teammate) Minkah Fitzpatrick, and more than stars Richard Sherman and Harrison Smith. When healthy, Haden is still an impact playmaker at his position.

84. A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans

-Key 2019 Stat: 1,051 yards and 8 TDs
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. Was still in college.
-Pro Football Focus: #78 overall

With the exception of a couple of streak plays that broke loose, rookie A.J. Brown was basically invisible with Marcus Mariota under center for the Titans. Enter Ryan Tannehill (No. 92 on my list, see the last installment), and Brown became one of the most productive all-around receivers in the NFL. But Tannehill doesn't deserve all the credit...they needed one another. No one from the trio of Corey Davis, Tajae Sharpe and Adam Humphries was going to breakout for Tannehill. A.J. has the strength and skillset, and he stepped forward at exactly the right time to become a legitimate force in this league.

83. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Pittsburgh Steelers

-Key 2019 Stat: 5 INTs (tied for 2nd-best)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #94 overall

For a while the storyline was...we gotta break Minkah out of the football hell that is the Miami Dolphins' franchise! But I dunno about that, anymore. I'm kind of curious to see how the Dolphins' improving D would have looked with Minkah, Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson and Xavien Howard together. Anyway, I digress. As you can see, Minkah has one of the best on-field reputations in the game (Pro Bowl starter). He makes incredibly athletic plays on the ball, with crazy hangtime and receiver-like hands. He's just one of those guys who jumps off the screen at ya. The Steelers are awfully happy they pulled that trade off.

82. Bobby Wagner, MLB, Seattle Seahawks

-Key 2019 Stat: 159 tackles (most in the game)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes.
-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Does this guy ever get old? He's a savage. Just absolutely relentless, week in and week out. Pro Football Focus doesn't even mention tackles...but I think they are pretty important, no? Somebody has to end the play. Wagner is just one of those old-school vets who is all over the field. He uses his smarts in combination with his never-quit disposition. He's a five-time Pro Bowler for good reason.

81. Devin McCourty, S, New England Patriots

-Key 2019 Stat: 5 INTs (tied for 2nd-best)
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #84 overall

A true Belichick disciple. Another coach out on the field. You know Devin, by now...he sees all the angles. He's lurking in the distance, just waiting to make his break on the ball...and he knows exactly what's coming. Here is a veteran who finishes close games. Many of his interceptions come when it matters the most. This is easily one of the most consistent players in the NFL. And ya gotta love consistency.

80. Justin Houston, Edge, Indianapolis Colts

-Key 2019 Stat: 11 sacks
-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No.
-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.
-Pro Football Focus: #101 overall

The guy has had an outstanding NFL career (six seasons of at least nine sacks). Sure, he's gettin' up there in age, but I think the homefield turf helped his speed this past season. He's back on the horse. Back in the discussion with the best pass rushers in the game. I'd take him on my team any day of the week.

Tune in next time for the 70s!

Part 1, Players 90-100

Part 3, Players 70-79

Frascella's NFL Top 100, Part 1: Lemme Get Some Mostert with that Hot Dog

Photo Credit: The Mercury News

After a surprisingly smooth and successful virtual draft, the NFL remains an extremely hot topic of discussion on social media and in the mainstream news. You know the deal...we gotta strike while the iron is hot! Here come my top 100 players in the NFL...

But first, we must establish my criteria:

1. 50% of the weight: "The Eye Test" - my own personal assessment of the player's talent, productivity and overall impact on winning. This has to come first, otherwise it wouldn't be my list. 

2. 20%: Stats. The raw numbers. 

3. 10%: Impact on winning in pressure situations and most importantly, the playoffs. 

4. 10%: The experts over at Pro Football Focus really know their stuff; they examine every single play of the NFL season, and I trust their detailed analyses. I'm giving 10% of the weight to their 2019 Top 101 NFL Players. 

5. 10%: Recent Pro Bowl selections. Thanks to the coaches, players and fans to their contributions, here. 

Please note: I use logic. The quarterback position is the most influential in all of professional sports, and I absolutely take that into account (PFF does not, in their rankings). 

And finally, these are currently the best players in the NFL. I'm not really getting into projections here, but I will consider circumstances where necessary. For example, Philip Rivers is now a Colt, and they have a much better offensive line than the Chargers. Rivers still is who he is, but far superior protection should help his performance. You get the idea. Let's roll...

100. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

-Key 2019 Stat: 510 rushing yards

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 

-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

I don't give a damn how you get the job done...just get it done. This is the modern NFL, and some of the best quarterbacks in the game are downright deadly with their legs. Sure, Allen is still raw and needs a lot of work as a pure passer, but his 510 rushing yards were third at his position, trailing only Kyler Murray and MVP Lamar Jackson. Allen is an irritant for opposing defenses; they think they have everything covered, then he takes off with surprising speed for his size. He still threw for over 3,000 yards with 20 passing TDs, and his upstart Bills reached the postseason. We'll see if he can improve as a passer this season. 

99. Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

-Key 2019 Stat: 133 total yards and 2 TDs in the Super Bowl

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No.

-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Here's a quick punchline...Josh Allen actually had more rushing yards on the season than Williams (498). But, hey man...recency bias can get you on my list! Williams was one of the only standouts in the Chiefs' exciting Super Bowl victory, and the reality is that he always makes them better. He only played in 11 regular season games, and while LeSean McCoy and others did an admirable job attempting to fill in, things weren't quite perfect for the Chiefs. They are at their absolute best with Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Watkins and Williams out there at the same time. 

98. Tyron Smith, T, Dallas Cowboys

-Key 2019 Stat: 7th-straight Pro Bowl selection. Is that a stat?

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 

-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

I think we all know about the Cowboys' vaunted offensive line at this point. Tyron may be getting older and declining just a bit, but he's still one of the best and most reliable Tackles in the game. He's not the best offensive lineman on his own team at this point, though. 

97. Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers

-Key 2019 Stat: 336 yards and 5 TDs in the playoffs

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 

-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Here's a great spot for The Eye Test...did you see what I saw in the postseason? Mostert and Derrick Henry were the best running backs in the game. Mostert was running hard, and downhill, every single time he touched the rock. Defenders were sidestepping him; they didn't want any part of the freight train. Credit the Shanahan family's legendary run-blocking schemes, but Mostert also delivers on his end of the deal. He's a bad man. 

96. Ronnie Stanley, T, Baltimore Ravens

-Key 2019 Stat: Allowed zero sacks

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 

-Pro Football Focus: #16 overall player

Obviously the guy is a monster...but how much credit do we have to give to Jackson's legs? How many times was he gone - out of the pocket before the rush could even get to him? Regardless, Stanley was a Pro Bowl starter and Pro Football Focus had him as the No. 16 overall player in the NFL. Maybe 96 isn't fair. Still, in my mind, offensive line play is collective. My instinct is to credit the guys around them, nearly as much. 

95. John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills

-Key 2019 Stat: 1,060 yards

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 

-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Seventy-two catches, 1,060 yards and six touchdowns...that's probably pretty hard to do with Josh Allen slingin' it, right? Brown has always been a very talented receiver, but he's only "5'11" (yeah, right) and injuries have gotten to him multiple times in the past. All things considered, he's a slick route runner with sneaky breakaway speed. 

94. Kyle Van Noy, Edge, Miami Dolphins

-Key 2019 Stat: 60 QB pressures

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 

-Pro Football Focus: #59 overall player

A big-time pickup for Brian Flores and the Dolphins, here. Van Noy also passes The Eye Test; the Patriots' D featured some greats like Gillmore, McCourty and Hightower, yet Van Noy always found a way to stand out. The AFC East is wide open this season...don't sleep on these improving Dolphins. Van Noy can and will be a defensive leader and MVP for them. 

93. Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams

-Key 2019 Stat: 4,638 yards (3rd-most overall)

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. 

-Pro Football Focus: Unranked. 

We all know Goff fell off a cliff this past season, but we can be a little more patient with quarterbacks than other positions on this list. He just led the Rams to the Super Bowl - it was only two seasons ago. If he sucks again this year, he'll fall out of my top 100. But I'm sure Sean McVay will coach with an awful lot to prove - I expect better results from Goff and the Rams. His 4,638 yards were more than Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, by the way. 

92. Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

-Key 2019 Stat: 117.5 QB rating (best in the game)

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 

Pro Football Focus: #61 overall player

Ah, Mr. Tannehill - the great enigma. Who is this guy, really? We all remember Hard Knocks when he couldn't even name the four teams in the AFC East. We were led to believe he wasn't the brightest bulb...but I dunno. How can you just come out of nowhere and drop a ridiculous 117.5 QB rating on us? Tannehill definitely has some tricks up his sleeve. If he comes even close to repeating his performance this season, he will absolutely be promoted to my top 50. 

91. Anthony Harris, S, Minnesota Vikings

-Key 2019 Stat: 6 interceptions (most in the game)

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? No. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? No. 

Pro Football Focus: #12 overall player

How about that? PFF has him as the No. 12 overall player in the game and he wasn't even a Pro Bowl selection. This is what happens when you play alongside Harrison Smith, one of the absolute best safeties of his generation. Yet and still, Harris stands on his own. He's a ball hawk with uncanny field vision. He does his homework, and his ability to anticipate is probably unparalleled at his position. This guy's a stud; plain and simple. 

90. Von Miller, Edge, Denver Broncos

-Key 2019 Stat: 8 sacks

-2019/20 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 

-2018/19 Pro Bowler? Yes. A starter. 

-Pro Football Focus: Unranked

Look, I'm gonna be straight with you...here's my concern with Von: does he understand that the Broncos can't compete with the Chiefs in the AFC West, so he's kind of mailing it in? He just didn't exert himself last season. We have to see if he's reinvigorated by Drew Lock, Jerry Jeudy and Melvin Gordon. Maybe he thinks Denver will return to respectability. We'll just have to wait and see on this. 

Tune in next time for the 80s!

Part 2, Players 80-89

Part 3, Players 70-79

Frascella's 2020 (or 2021?) MLB Predictions: NL West

Photo Credit: Ric Tapia, Getty Images

Well, I made it this far - I might as well finish the job. In the end, these predictions may very well pertain to 2021. Here's how we got to this point:

Frascella's NL East Predictions
NL Central
AL West
AL Central
AL East

5. San Francisco Giants

2019 Record: 77-85
2020 Vegas Over/Under (via Odds Shark): 68.5
Frascella's Projection: 67-95

Management: Don't underestimate the power of Bruce Bochy. He's a calming influence and extremely experienced leader, and now he's retired. The Giants will miss him, desperately. They had no business winning 77 games last season - they had (arguably) the most washed-up roster in the MLB. Bochy tends to squeeze extra wins outta his teams. I can't say I have anywhere near the same faith in Gabe Kapler, who completely flopped out of Philadelphia.

Position Players: Lately, my initial instinct with this club has been, what the hell is this front office doing? Why do they want so many has-been players, when the rest of the league is leaning young and explosive? But it's just a little different this time around. The Giants have some youth - and some hope - with outfielders Mike Yastrzemski and Alex Dickerson, as well as 2B Mauricio Dubon. I don't think we're lookin' at world-beaters here, but Yastrzemski was surprisingly productive in his debut last season, and of course he's the grandson of Hall of Famer, Carl Yastrzemski. He may have to be this club's best player. The "treading water" guys are still here, like Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Pablo Sandoval. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Pitchers: Gone is longtime ace Madison Bumgarner. Bochy and Bumgarner - that's two of the most important guys to this franchise. These are major hits in leadership and reliability. Johnny Cueto is back and Jeff Samardzija is fine, but the rest of this rotation is shaky at best. Kevin Gausman would need to juice to come back alive. His arm has fallen off in recent years, and he's been terrible. Youngster Tyler Beede - a "Zylbert guy" - is done with Tommy John. This bullpen is a mess. Probable closer is, I guess, lefty vet Tony Watson. Talk about a hodge podge of scrap arms.

4. Colorado Rockies

2019 Record: 71-91
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 74.5
Frascella's Projection: 76-86

General Thoughts: Why doesn't Coors Field help this club? Yeah, the Rockies can be tough at home and their offensive players end up with juiced statistics, but how the hell did they only win 71 games last year? I think of it this way...their pitchers are used to pitching at Coors; conversely, opposing pitchers are dreading the trip to Colorado - so why doesn't it end up as an all-around advantage for the Rocks? Shouldn't it be such a delight for their guys to pitch on the road? I dunno, I don't get the whole thing.

Position Players: I mean, you know the story here, right? Veteran stars Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon lead the way, alongside prime producer Trevor Story, one of the top fantasy shortstops in the game. Daniel Murphy can still hit, but he's clearly on the backside of a quality big-league career. Once and for all, outfielder David Dahl has to stay healthy. Kid can rake, but who cares if he only ends up playing half the games? Ryan McMahon and Sam Hilliard are the possible upside kids, here.

Pitchers: I dunno...this rotation is not that bad. Let's get real, we're talkin' about the Rockies here - two of their best pitchers of all time were Jeff Francis and Jorge De La Rosa - so the bar is set awfully low. German Marquez's stuff is up there with the best the Rockies have ever possessed (alongside Ubaldo Jimenez) and Jon Gray is right there with them; lefty Kyle Freeland is in the mold of Francis and De La Rosa - lefties seem to have better luck at Coors. After a breakout year in 2018, Freeland fell completely off the map last season, but maybe he'll even things out. 2.85 was way too good in '18, but maybe 6.73 was unrealistically bad in '19. Maybe he's a 4.50 kinda guy. Antonio Senzatela's stuff is pretty crappy, but he occasionally runs into a decent streak of 3-4 starts, particularly earlier in his career (like when Dayn Perry of CBS had him ahead of Clayton Kershaw in his rankings). Vet Wade Davis is back in the closer's role - at this point, his arm is completely shot...but ya know what? He's been one of the best relievers in the history of this club. I doubt it will be pretty, but he'll scratch together some saves. Scott Oberg, Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee should provide some decent help in the pen. At least they have some recognizable names.

3. San Diego Padres

2019 Record: 70-92
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 82.5
Frascella's Projection: 80-82

Betting Influence: Whoaaaa, Nelly - that 82.5 number just feels like it's jumping the gun. This is a clear reaction to the activity of the Padres' offseason...but what about the quality? Are they "there" yet? Not that 82.5 is screaming World Series contender, but a 12-win jump in a single season is asking an awful lot. I don't see it, yet - 76 to 78 wins are more likely than 82 to 84.

Position Players: By now you probably know they added Jurickson Profar, Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham. I do like Profar - I feel like maybe he under-performed a bit in Oakland (.218 BA, though 20 homers are solid for a 2B), but I have concerns about both outfielders: (1) The Rays are so smart. They got Pham from the Cardinals at exactly the right time - now they part with him after he leads the way as one of their best players? You smell somethin' funky, too? They just have the magic touch. They always seem to know a lot more than we do. Pham's probably (mildly) damaged goods. (2) Same idea with Grisham, no? He was arguably the most touted offensive prospect in the Brewers' system. He gets a call-up one year, and that's it? He's gone? Poof. Maybe they oversold on his ability. Built up the hype to ultimately let him go. It's like a "pump-and-dump" stock outta Jordan Belfort's shop. So yeah, San Diego just needs to keep watchful eyes on both of those guys. This is still, obviously, an improvement to their overall talent level. The three additions join the solid core of Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Fernando Tatis (major upside, here). Catcher Francisco Mejia had some hype on his way up, too. He has the ability and potential to be one of the better fantasy catchers in the National League. Overall, despite my minor concerns, offense should be San Diego's strength.

Pitchers: This has the feel of a rotation that looks better on paper than it actually is. Chris Paddack should be a true ace; so no worries there. It's after Paddack that you can really begin to nitpick. Garrett Richards is back after a longgg injury hiatus, and who knows with this guy? Even when healthy, his performance was wildly inconsistent. The Angels wanted him to be their franchise ace, but the plan never panned out. I'd have to see Richards stay healthy before I put any stock in him. Dinelson Lamet is a flamethrower with some real nasty stuff, but does he have the mental makeup to be a reliable big-league starter? His control is spotty, and his feel for the craft is questionable at best. He has all of the physical tools, but remains a project. Next up is young lefty Joey Lucchesi, who has been the focal point of our offseason debates...

Padres front 3 of Paddack-Lucchesi-Lamet deserves a lot more respect. Theyre better than Cleveland’s top three, at least. Argument could be made they’re the deepest 1-through-5 in the game (Zyl Guy Pomeranz a stud, Richards still has something left in tank, and/or Davies is fine)

— Matt Zylbert (@MattZylbert) April 2, 2020

Hahaha, that’s funny Zyl, because Lucchesi’s rotation spot is in jeopardy. He’s a 5th starter or nothing right now: pic.twitter.com/6bgheFvLlt

— John Frascella (@LegendSports7) April 2, 2020

Listen we can bet on the side any Lucchesi stats you want. I’ve watched him more than enough to determine he has All Star stuff and the mental makeup to succeed (ie. Look at the K rate in ‘18). When you guys watch him you’ll see

— Matt Zylbert (@MattZylbert) April 2, 2020

Not sure what you guys are talking about in reference to Lucchesi's stuff - have you ever seen him pitch? His average fastball as a rookie was 90.4 and 90.2 as a sophomore. He's a soft-tossing lefty which is discouraging for a young kid. I think we're talking about a diff player.

— John Frascella (@LegendSports7) April 2, 2020

So yeah, Lucchesi has been a matter of some debate. The Padres' own beat reporters have published that Lucchesi is battling Cal Quantrill for the fifth-and-final rotation slot. The reality is that Lucchesi has been a disappointment, relative to what had been expected of him. He came up as a highly-touted prospect in San Diego's system. And yet, despite the obvious benefits of Petco, he hasn't yet had an ERA under 4.00. That's because his pure stuff is weak. He can't sniff the pure stuff of his own teammates Paddack, Richards, Lamet and - if you've had a chance to see him pitch, you'd know - even young Quantrill. The unnamed man in this rotation is control pitcher Zach Davies, who should be pretty good at Petco. He pitched surprisingly well in spite of Miller Park's hitter-friendly conditions. Kirby Yates and Emilio Pagan make for a very strong back of the bullpen, here. Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen and Luis Perdomo are key contributors, as well. This is actually one of the better bullpens in the NL.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

2019 Record: 85-77
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 83.5
Frascella's Projection: 88-74

General Thoughts: Call this my "hunch" team. Bumgarner going from Oracle Park in San Fran to deadly Chase Field in AZ should be a bad thing. And I'm not really a Starling Marte guy. And I can't really say I'm a Kole Calhoun guy, either. But...this club won 85 games last year. When the hell did that happen? They were a complete afterthought to me. So combine those 85 wins with the fact that their front office worked extra hard this offseason, and I'm just getting "the feel". This feels like a Wild Card team to me. Let's look a little closer...

Position Players: Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar were monsters last season. They absolutely carried Arizona's offense. Ketel finally broke out after years of chatter about his natural ability, but how sustainable is that success? He was the No. 1 ranked fantasy second baseman - is that even close to repeatable? If it is, it'll be because of Chase Field. It enhances guys like Coors. I've always been an Escobar guy - the offseason after Arizona traded for him, I wrote a letter to the Mets' front office asking them to make Escobar their No. 1 free agent priority. That didn't work out because the D'Backs (not surprisingly) decided to quickly re-sign him. Nonetheless, the guy could always rake from both sides of the plate. Obviously I already mentioned Starling and Calhoun in the outfield, and the other key hitters are David Peralta and 1B Christian Walker; the latter could certainly take a big step up this season. Youngster Carson Kelly was far more productive than I ever thought he'd be behind the dish. If Ketel and Escobar can come close to repeating, this will be a solid offensive ballclub.

Pitchers: Bumgarner is joined by Robbie Ray, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Mike Leake and Merrill Kelly. Ray is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the league, but his lack of refinement is maddening. He's never been able to polish up. He's the same ol' guy - looks like the best pitcher in the league for a few innings, then blows up and walks three guys in an inning. It's gotta be super frustrating for Arizona's fans. Gallen looks like a steal from Miami - he's certainly one of the game's major breakout candidates. He has wipeout stuff and some real moxie on the hill. I don't like young Weaver's stuff at all, but he pitched surprisingly well last season. Leake is perfectly fine as a No. 5 and Kelly makes for workable depth. I don't really mind their rotation at all; the issue is the bullpen. Archie Bradley needs to tweak his "offseason program". A couple years ago he was lookin' like a certified flamethrower. Now you can kind of tell his arm is shot. He needs to "power back up", you know? Hector Rondon and Junior Guerra both have fluctuating results. I don't particularly trust any of these guys late in games.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2019 Record: 106-56
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 101.5
Frascella's Projection: 110-52

Cue up Mortal Kombat...FINISH HIM!!!

I'm not gonna go crazy analyzing this club - the Dodgers are far-and-away the best team in the National League (at least for the regular season). The smaller sample size of the postseason could always bite them in the ass. But over the long haul of 162, no one is gonna have a better record than these guys.

Position Players: Yes, they added the great Mookie Betts to Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Corey Seager and Joc Pederson. Will Smith and Gavin Lux are two of the absolute best prospects at their respective positions. A.J. Pollock ain't half bad as your worst regular.

Pitchers: Same idea, here - over the long haul of the season, you ain't gonna beat Kershaw, Buehler, Price, Urias and Wood. Ross Stripling would be a No. 3 starter for alotta teams, and he didn't make this rotation. The Dodgers possess an abundance of riches across the board. Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly and Pedro Baez are gonna nail things down on the back end. This is the best regular season team in the league. Period.

Frascella's FINAL Win Projections (using the 162-game model)

NOTE: If you adjust for the coronavirus delays, the Yankees jump right up; neck-and-neck with the Astros in the AL. With Judge, Stanton and Hicks healthy, you could easily project the Yanks for 101 wins or more (probably more). However, I wrote the AL East predictions first, and the injuries were the reality at the time. I'm not going to go back and tweak each and every one of these totals:

1. Dodgers: 110
2. Astros: 101
3. Twins: 100
4. Braves: 97
5. Yankees: 97
6. Rays: 95
7. Nationals: 93
8. A's: 93
9. Reds: 88
10. Diamondbacks: 88
11. Brewers: 87
12. Angels: 87
13. White Sox: 87
14. Mets: 84
15. Indians: 84
16. Cardinals: 83
17. Phillies: 83
18. Cubs: 81
19. Red Sox: 80
20. Padres: 80
21. Rangers: 77
22. Rockies: 76
23. Blue Jays: 74
24. Giants: 67
25. Marlins: 66
26. Royals: 63
27. Pirates: 57
28. Mariners: 54
29. Orioles: 52
30. Tigers: 50

Frascella's 2020 MLB Predictions: NL Central

Photo Credit: Albert Cesare and Cincinnati.com

The Players' Association is discussing game action without fans - so let's play ball! Here's how we got to this point:

Frascella's NL East Predictions
AL West
AL Central
AL East

(** Editor's note: Again, we're dealing with 162-game projections, here. The previous posts were all based on 162, so I gotta be consistent. In all likelihood, in reality, we're probably looking at something like 110-120 games. That's my guess, at least.)

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

2019 Record: 69-93

2020 Vegas Over/Under via Odds Shark: 69.5

Frascella's 2020 Projection: 57-105

Management: Yeah, I'm just not seein' it here - these guys got absolutely ripped off in the Chris Archer trade (Tyler Glasnow is looking like a future superstar), and the general direction of this franchise is questionable at best. This NL Central looks awfully competitive - the Cardinals, Brewers and Cubs are always around, and the Reds have improved significantly - and these Pirates are simply falling behind the pack. That 69.5 number looks like a real stretch to me. 

Position Players: Obviously big bopper Josh Bell leads the way here, and I saw some good things from OF Bryan Reynolds and SS Kevin Newman as well. But that simply isn't enough. 2B Adam Frazier will need to become more impactful, and OF Gregory Polanco needs to bounce back in a major way. OF Jarrod Dyson will set the table with his blinding speed. Here's the scary part...this offense is the strength of Pittsburgh's thin roster. 

Pitchers: No Jameson Taillon this season (Tommy John). Archer has been a bust since coming over from Tampa, and I've never been a Joe Musgrove guy. I mean, honestly, this rotation is kind of an abyss. In the pen, energizer bunny Keone Kela is expected to close. He has good enough stuff, but I wouldn't exactly call him a bona fide closer. Yikes with this club. Just...yikes. 

4. Chicago Cubs

2019 Record: 84-78

2020 Vegas Over/Under: 85.5

Frascella's 2020 Projection: 81-81

Management: Yeah, I wrote a book about Theo Epstein, so maybe I'm a little biased. I've never been particularly impressed by the guy. I'm still kind of astonished at the way everything came together for these Cubs in their magical World Series year. All the chips fell into place. The scouting report on Kris Bryant wasn't there yet. Chicago's pitchers hadn't quite reached the end of their primes. The idiotic Mets failed to bring Daniel Murphy back after his incredible postseason run, and they became a Wild Card team as opposed to a serious contender. The previous playoffs they swept the Cubs out of the NLCS, and they did it without a sweat. Those Cubs didn't belong with those Mets. Anyway, I digress. Now the magic has worn off for this Cubs' core. Collectively, they are just another face in the crowd. I'm gonna give the Reds, Brewers and Cardinals the slight edges, here. 

Position Players: Bryant bounced back nicely last season, and Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kyle Schwarber make for a fine core. But that's just it - it's fine. It's not as good as people thought it would be. Rizzo is solid and consistent, but to me he isn't the superstar that pundits have often made him out to be. Schwarber is obviously very easy to pitch to because of all of the holes in his swing, and the fact that he swings for the fences no matter what the circumstance. I like Contreras and Baez, but the reality is that this club falls into protracted offensive droughts. This has happened multiple times in recent years, and their collective stock continues to fall. For them to buck the trend and start heading uphill again, they'll need Ian Happ to put together a strong, full season. He's never matched his prospect hype. They'd love a renaissance year from 2B Jason Kipnis, too.

Pitchers: Yu Darvish looked about as good as I've ever seen him during the second half of last season, and crafty Kyle Hendricks is about as consistent as they come. The issues here are veteran lefties Jon Lester and Jose Quintana; is Lester done? Will Quintana ever figure out National League hitters? In a rare statistical blip, Quintana was actually more effective in the AL. In the bullpen, there are similar concerns about veterans Craig Kimbrel and Brandon Morrow - are both of these guys done, too? Kimbrel is coming off the worst season of his potential Hall of Fame career. Morrow can never make it through a year without his arm falling off. There are a lot of question marks on this club.

3. St. Louis Cardinals

2019 Record: 91-71
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 87.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 83-79

Position Players: Paul Goldschmidt is the only guy I can really count on, here. Marcell Ozuna is gone. Matt Carpenter has battled injuries, and his production simply isn't what it used to be. I think this is a weak outfield with Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader and Dexter Fowler, with O'Neill probably being the best of the three. Tommy Edman did some really good things last year, and there's no question the Cardinals need him to repeat that surprising production. I like Paul DeJong, but I'm not a Kolten Wong guy. This offense definitely looks weaker without Ozuna.

Pitchers: Jack Flaherty has emerged as a true, front-line ace. After that, it gets a little messy - I guess Adam Wainwright is the next guy you can count on, to some extent? Miles Mikolas fell back down to earth last season, and Dakota Hudson needs to refine both his control and command. Carlos Martinez is a wild card, as always. Kwang-Hyun Kim may emerge as their third-best starting pitcher. In the pen, they haven't really established a closer. It'll probably be Giovanny Gallegos, who will make for an interesting late-round value in fantasy leagues. Flamethrower Jordan Hicks isn't around (Tommy John) and lefty Andrew Miller is finally fading toward the final fourth of his career. His results have finally tapered off.

2. Milwaukee Brewers

2019 Record: 89-73
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 83.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 87-75

Position Players: These guys always find a way to hit, especially late in the season when the goin' gets tough. Sometimes the Brewers are afterthoughts through the middle of the season, then they explode in the final two months of play. Obviously, Christian Yelich - one of the absolute best players in the world - leads the way, here. Lorenzo Cain and Keston Hiura are back as key contributors, as well. But there have been a number of interesting acquisitions: C Omar Narvaez, 1B Justin Smoak, OF Avisail Garcia, SS Luis Urias and fellow infielders Eric Sogard, Brock Holt and Jedd Gyorko. And, well, interesting is the word, right? What do we really have, here? Narvaez is coming off a breakout year with Seattle, so he should be one of the better fantasy catchers (thanks, Miller Park). Smoak tapered off the last year and a half, but Miller Park should also help him. I don't think Urias is ready yet, and Gyorko is only good when he "gets big". I do like Sogard and Holt, as similarly-pesky utility players who contribute in a number of different ways. So, if I have these Brewers beating their over/under, I have to believe in this offense, right? Because it certainly ain't a pitching-dependent club. So, yes, the short answer is this offense should be good enough to go down to the wire with the much-improved Reds.

Pitchers: It's all about Josh Hader. If he keeps doing what he's been doing, he's one of the 4 or 5 most valuable all-around pitchers in the game. You can use him in any high-leverage situation (except, apparently, the Wild Card Game against the Nationals) or you can utilize him as a traditional closer. He's intimidating and lefties basically have zero chance against him. His value combined with the Brewers' offense makes them a contender for this division title. Brandon Woodruff - an old-school, no bullshit, power sinkerballer - leads the way in Milwaukee's rotation. He's considered a major breakout candidate in fantasy formats. The rest of their rotation is shaky. Milwaukee would love for Adrian Houser to breakout, as well.

1. Cincinnati Reds

2019 Record: 75-87
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 83.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 88-74

A Busy Offseason: I've said it before - I don't usually buy into the "hype" teams or the splashy offseasons, but I really like what Cincy has done. Mike Moustakas is a very steady producer and always-respected veteran leader. I'm sure he'll enjoy this banbox of a ballpark. Nick Castellanos raked in this division with the Cubbies. Another steady, reliable guy who will enjoy the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. CF Shogo Akiyama brings some hype from overseas and Freddy Galvis is decent enough at short.

Position Players: The coronavirus hiatus has helped power bat Eugenio Suarez. He wasn't going to be ready for the start of the season; now he has a legitimate shot. He was an absolute monster last season. In addition to the acquisitions, he's joined by Joey Votto and three young, intriguing outfielders: Aristides Aquino, Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker. There's upside here, and maybe Votto will bounce back with added lineup protection from Moustakas and Castellanos. Not sure what to think about Akiyama, yet.

Pitchers: I can't deny it - the Reds have the most balanced club in this division. That's why I'm giving them the slight edge over the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs. This rotation is about as good as it gets in the National League, from top to bottom with Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and veteran acquisition Wade Miley. Tyler Mahle's probably the best No. 6 out there, too. I'm not worried about this rotation at all. My only concern would be the volatility at the back of Cincy's bullpen, with inconsistent results from Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen and Amir Garrett. Iglesias has to pitch cleaner this year.

ALL of Frascella's Win Projections to Date (using the 162-game model)

1. Astros: 101
2. Twins: 100
3. Braves: 97
4. Yankees: 97
5. Rays: 95
6. Nationals: 93
7. A's: 93
8. Reds: 88
9. Brewers: 87
10. Angels: 87
11. White Sox: 87
12. Mets: 84
13. Indians: 84
14. Cardinals: 83
15. Phillies: 83
16. Cubs: 81
17. Red Sox: 80
18. Rangers: 77
19. Blue Jays: 74
20. Marlins: 66
21. Royals: 63
22. Pirates: 57
23. Mariners: 54
24. Orioles: 52
25. Tigers: 50