NBA Top 50 Players List: Is Anthony Davis Coming for LeBron, KD and The Beard?

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Human beings are creatures of habit.

Every year at this time -- because of the passion, competitiveness and excitement of the NBA Playoffs -- I feel the urge to rank the best basketball players in the world. Of course, the obvious issue is that there are about 70-80 all-star caliber players in the league right now. I've never seen a talent base like this.

And then there's the age-old question...what makes one player better than another? How do we distinguish between polar opposite superstars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry? What about the differences between Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook? And exactly how much weight should we place on the postseason?

Well, this is what I wrote in last year's rankings:

1. With the exception of the unselfish, ball movement offenses of the Warriors and Spurs, most NBA teams rely on one-on-one play down the stretch of tight games. So, can this player use the drive/pass/shoot threat to effectively manipulate opposing defenses at crunchtime? Can this star lead his team to victory with controlled, high-percentage, high-IQ plays under pressure?

2. Does this player have a positive impact on the on-and-off court culture of his club? Basketball is a team game and rhythm sport, so a selfish star can spiral a team in the wrong direction. A good attitude is contagious. That's a cold you want to catch. 

3. Is this player consistently healthy?

(I'm not even going to mention physical ability because that's a given on this list, right? Well, I guess I just mentioned it anyway.) 

And much of that is still true, but I'd like to add the following: 

The regular season isn't real. It's one, long 82-game illusion. Look at some of these trends: 

1. In the 2015/16 regular season, Curry shot 50.4% from the floor. In the playoffs, he dropped down to 43.8%. 

2. In the 2016/17 regular season, James Harden shot 44% from the floor. In the playoffs, he dropped down to 41%. His three-point shooting dropped from 34.7% to 27.8%. 

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3. In the 2017/18 regular season, Westbrook shot 44.9% from the floor. In 4 playoff games against the feisty Jazz, he is shooting 36.7%. 

So what's the explanation for this phenomenon? Well, the easy way out is to say that they are choking -- and let's be honest, Curry, Harden and Westbrook have ALL displayed some mental issues/blocks in the playoffs -- but the reality lies somewhere in here:

1. NBA players make millions and millions of dollars. Eighty-two regular season games, plus travel -- that's asking a lot. Yes, these guys have some of the best strength-and-conditioning coaches in the world, but that doesn't change the fact that basketball is a physically taxing game. That means, not surprisingly, guys take nights off. Sometimes, during the regular season, they are merely going through the motions. The result is that super-talented players like Westbrook, Harden and Curry can easily pad their stats against minimal defensive effort. Very simply, in the playoffs, that minimal effort transitions to MAXIMUM. 

2. Not only are they playing against a higher level of defensive effort, they are also contending with a higher level of overall play. We're talking about the best teams and players in the world, here. 

3. High-leverage games usually mean more minutes on the floor. That can sometimes lead to fatigue at exactly the wrong times. And of course, pressure, pressure, pressure. 

So hell yeahhhh the playoffs matter! The regular season isn't real NBA basketball. Stars should be evaluated under pressure against max-effort D. 

Anyway, enough foreplay, let's get into my list...

I've written about these guys so many times in the past, that this is LIST ONLY. If you'd like to read some past analysis, go here:

2016-17 NBA Top 25 Players (year end)

2016-17 NBA Top 100 Players (beginning of season)

2015-16 NBA Top 20 Players

2014-15 NBA Top 200 Players

HONORABLE MENTION (in no particular order)

Nikola Mirotic, PF, Pelicans

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Jaylen Brown, SF, Celtics

Enes Kanter, C, Knicks

DeAndre Jordan, C, Clippers

Isaiah Thomas, PG, Lakers

Dario Saric, PF, 76ers

Nikola Vucevic, C, Magic

JOHNNY FRO'S TOP 50 NBA PLAYERS AS OF APRIL 25, 2018

50. Aaron Gordon, F, Magic

49. Dwight Howard, C, Hornets

48. Al Horford, C, Celtics

47. Lou Williams, G, Clippers

46. Tobias Harris, F, Clippers

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45. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Timberwolves

44. Mike Conley, PG, Grizzlies

43. Clint Capela, C, Rockets

42. Gordon Hayward, G/F, Celtics

41. Ricky Rubio, PG, Jazz

40. Paul Millsap, PF, Nuggets

39. Rudy Gobert, C, Jazz

38. Goran Dragic, PG, Heat

37. Kevin Love, PF, Cavs

36. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Knicks

35. Blake Griffin, PF, Pistons

34. Kyle Lowry, PG, Raptors

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33. Khris Middleton, G/F, Bucks

32. C.J. McCollum, SG, Blazers

31. Marc Gasol, C, Grizzlies

30. Bradley Beal, SG, Wizards

29. Kemba Walker, PG, Hornets

28. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Timberwolves

27. Draymond Green, PF, Warriors

26. Devin Booker, G/F, Suns

25. Nikola Jokic, C, Nuggets

24. Andre Drummond, C, Pistons

23. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Pelicans

22. Klay Thompson, SG, Warriors

21. Donovan Mitchell, SG, Jazz

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20. Jrue Holiday, PG, Pelicans

19. Victor Oladipo, SG, Pacers

18. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Spurs

17. Jimmy Butler, G/F, Timberwolves

16. Kawhi Leonard, SF, Spurs

15. Paul George, SF, Thunder

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14. Ben Simmons, G/F, 76ers

13. Joel Embiid, C, 76ers

12. DeMar DeRozan, SG, Raptors

11. Damian Lillard, PG, Blazers

10. John Wall, PG, Wizards

9. Kyrie Irving, PG, Celtics

8. Chris Paul, PG, Rockets

7. Russell Westbrook, PG, Thunder

6. Giannis Antetokounmpo, G/F/C, Bucks

5. Anthony Davis, PF, Pelicans

4. Stephen Curry, PG, Warriors

3. James Harden, G, Rockets

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2. Kevin Durant, F, Warriors

1. LeBron James, G/F

ALL COMPLAINTS ARE WELCOMED AND ENCOURAGED!!

2018 NFL Draft: Should the Jets Take Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold or Allen?

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As I was pulling up after a long day at work, I received a frantic phone call from a Senior Analyst of my "Hot Takes Team," quarterback expert Frank Valeriano.

"I'm mentally preparing myself for the Jets to take Baker Mayfield," he said.

"Listen, if the Jets want to draft A.J. McCarron, then so be it!" I barked.

"Noooo, that's not fair," Frank said, "I think Mayfield's skillset is a combination of Johnny Manziel, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson."

"I think that is a severe over-exaggeration," I snapped.

"I'm not saying he'll be as good as Watson or Wilson," Frank clarified, "I'm simply talking about the way he plays the position."

So is Mayfield the right guy for GM Mike Maccagnan, HC Todd Bowles and the hopeful Jets fans on the east coast? The only way to answer that question is to examine each candidate, one by one...

Option #1: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

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My loyal readers know that I'm not much of a college football fan. Growing up watching the Jets, Giants and Patriots in the northeast, I became accustomed to a certain level of defensive football. As we all know, when you match a top collegiate offense up against a lesser squad, we end up seeing painful scores like 63-0. And that just isn't fun. For the most part, defense is an illusion at the college level. 

So, writing this piece, I want to make it clear that I'm NOT a college football expert. I am, however, very experienced at analyzing quarterbacks. If you want to perform a background check before reading on, check out my last two QB rankings:

2017 NFL Quarterback Power Rankings

2016 NFL Quarterback Power Rankings

I was lucky enough to watch this season's Rose Bowl end-to-end. I watched VERY closely because I had a gut feeling the Jets would end up with Mayfield. In that wild, back-and-forth contest, Mayfield ended up 23-of-35 with 287 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Here's what I saw:

ACCURACY: Mayfield was very accurate, particularly in the first half. He seemed quite comfortable with the scripted portion of Oklahoma's offensive gameplan, which lead to good timing and quality, sustained drives. Mayfield had Oklahoma's offense in rhythm, and he drove them down the field with relative ease. 

RED FLAG #1: Even when the Sooners were cruising on their way to paydirt, Mayfield appeared to be GUIDING the ball into collegiate-level throwing windows. As I said to Frank on the phone earlier today, I wasn't impressed by a single throw that Mayfield made. To me, he seemed like a kid who had total command and control of the college game. We've seen situations like this before: Matt Leinart, Joey Harrington, David Carr, Danny Wuerffel and Tim Couch. I'm not saying Mayfield will be as bad as all or any of those guys; but way back when, I had similar concerns about their pure arm strength. They were all outstanding college football players; but when they released the ball, they didn't LOOK like NFL quarterbacks to me. You know? Like, when Matthew Stafford or Kirk Cousins let go of the ball it's just like...wow. You can feel the sizzle. And those aren't even top-5 guys. 

Mayfield is a smart kid and fearless competitor who settled into a comfort zone at the NCAA D-1 level. He was completely aware of the size of the throwing windows, which means his average arm strength was always disguised by easily completed passes. 

MOBILITY: Good. Should be fine at the NFL level, provided he develops pocket awareness of the speed of professional edge rushers. In addition, scrambling for first downs every once in awhile really keeps the opposing defense honest. We have seen Wilson, Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota and even Colin Kaepernick at their bests when defensive timing is thrown off by the mix-and-match of pass-and-run. Mayfield will need this, especially early on in his pro career. He'll also need to know when to slide. 

SIZE: I see him listed at 6'1", and I'm sure that's legit, but he looks awfully small out there. There were concerns about Manziel's height, and he was only an inch shorter. It's extremely difficult to find and develop a true franchise quarterback in Mayfield's size range. This is a major concern for me, as he attempts to deal with the big and beastly defenders in the NFL. 

JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:

ACCURACY: Jared Goff

ARM STRENGTH: A.J. McCarron, Brian Hoyer & Case Keenum

SIZE: Tyrod Taylor

MOBILITY: Mariota & Ryan Tannehill

OVERALL: Dak Prescott

Option #2: Josh Rosen, UCLA

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So I caught Rosen against Sam Darnold and his USC Trojans on November 18, 2017. He was SUPER impressive, going 32-of-52 for 421 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Darnold, on the other hand, finished with just 264 yards, 1 INT and zero TDs. It was an absolute no-contest. 

This game was a great barometer because everyone was watching. At the time, Darnold and Rosen were the consensus top two picks. That's when you see what a kid is made of. Rosen stepped up to the challenge without batting an eye, while Darnold looked smaller, weaker and less-NFL ready. 

ACCURACY: Rosen may not be as accurate at Mayfield, but because of his superior natural ability, Rosen takes riskier shots into tighter, NFL-like windows. His style of play at the collegiate level is more conducive to a transition to the big leagues. 

Mayfield is known as an "aggressive" quarterback, but that label is very much a part of his carefully-crafted persona. Baker likes to talk smack and back it up. He likes to win and rub it in. So he seems very aggressive, when in reality, on the field, he's a ball-control QB who is desperately trying to limit turnovers. And from a mindset perspective, obviously that's a good thing. HOWEVER, we're talking about the No. 3 overall selection in the NFL draft, here. Do you want a poor man's Alex Smith, or someone with the upside to single-handedly propel your franchise into a perennial Super Bowl contender?

I'm not saying that's necessarily Rosen. But he has more of a chance to be that than Mayfield. Rosen has the physical tools and gifts. Mayfield is small, weaker and inherently limited. 

MOBILITY: Rosen likes to stay in the pocket. He'll need to get the ball out quickly and/or defer to check-downs when necessary. If you watch the film of his performance against USC, you'll see that despite his impressive arm strength, Rosen has no issue with checking down. That shows his lack of on-field hubris, which is important.

SIZE: Listed at 6'4". He's at the high end of the NFL position average. 

JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:

ACCURACY: Derek Carr (in earlier seasons)

ARM STRENGTH: Andrew Luck & Carson Wentz

SIZE: Eli Manning

MOBILITY: Eli Manning & Philip Rivers

OVERALL: Derek Carr

Option #3: Sam Darnold, USC

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Heading into the 2017-18 NFL season, I thought Darnold was the guy for my Jets. I had seen his uncanny ability to deliver in the clutch, and he made some really tight-window TD throws in his freshman year. 

But I don't know what happened as a sophomore. Maybe defenses got hip to him. Darnold somehow looked smaller, weaker and sometimes (shockingly) overmatched. If you watched him on the same field with Rosen, you'd think they didn't belong on that same field. Darnold throws a lot of lame ducks. His ball often seems to die in the air. He needs to bulk up and add pure velocity. 

Doesn't matter, anyway, because most reports and mock drafts have the Browns taking Darnold at No. 1. Good luck with that. Nothing ever works out for the Browns, anyway. 

JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:

ACCURACY: Andy Dalton

ARM STRENGTH: Mitchell Trubisky, Blaine Gabbert & Matt Barkley

SIZE: Teddy Bridgewater & Ryan Fitzpatrick

MOBILITY: Alex Smith & Blake Bortles

OVERALL: Andy Dalton

Option #4: Josh Allen, Wyoming

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By this point, I think we all know that Allen has the biggest arm of this foursome. I'd say it's Allen, Rosen, Mayfield then Darnold in that order (though it's awfully close between the latter two). But there's absolutely no doubt that Allen is a project. Mayfield protects the ball and is an accurate thrower. Rosen is a physically gifted quarterback whose accuracy is far superior to Allen's. Darnold is inconsistent, but scouts believe he has the highest overall upside. 

Allen is just a big arm who occasionally completes a pass. He's not quite "Wild Thing" Ricky Vaughn, but he's about as far away from Drew Brees as Robert Griffin III. We've seen big, lumbering guys like this before. Allen's upside is Drew Bledsoe or Vinny Testaverde. The bottom, more likely end of his spectrum contains Paxton Lynch and Ryan Mallett. You can see why this is a slippery slope. 

JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:

ACCURACY: Landry Jones

ARM STRENGTH: Joe Flacco & Jay Cutler

SIZE: Carson Palmer & Philip Rivers

MOBILITY: Sam Bradford & Tom Savage

OVERALL: Chad Henne

Part 5: What Would John Frascella Do?

I'd take Rosen without hesitating. I don't think he can be a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, but I DO believe he can be a Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins or Andrew Luck. That's pretty damn good. I'll take that over Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton or Chad Henne any day of the week. 

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Part 6: What Will the Jets Do?

The Jets will take Mayfield. He's winning them over in interviews. Kid knows how to talk the talk. He reminds me of Sam Bradford that way. Bradford's been tricking everyone for years. He's just an overpaid, colossal bust.  

Let me say this...as an NFL prospect, most of the year, Mayfield was considered CLEARLY behind Darnold and Rosen. 95% of the scouts and analysts had Allen clearly ahead of Mayfield. Often, Mayfield was referenced in the "next group" with Lamar Jackson out of Louisville. 

So how the heck did he get to the point where he suddenly may get drafted before Rosen? What changed on the football FIELD? Anything?

No. Baker Mayfield interviews well. Honestly, I really don't care about interviews. I care about pure NFL talent. 

The Jets are going to get tricked into this pick. Don't tell me you're surprised...

They've never been hard to fool. 

2018 NBA Playoffs: The Blazers, Timberwolves & Thunder Just Don't Get It.

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The faster you get the ball over the midcourt line, the more time you have to run an offensive set and get a quality, open look.

And yet there's Tom Thibodeau, distracting his players and barking out plays the second the ball gets inbounded. Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler or Jamal Crawford are walking the ball up the court, getting the play from the sideline and showing zero urgency.

Have the Wolves ever looked around? Do you ever see the Warriors jogging lightly? The Rockets display urgency even when they're hammering a team by 30-40 points. What about quality organizations like the Celtics, Spurs and Raptors -- do they take plays off? Do they walk through their sets?

The Minnesota Timberwolves have EMBARRASSED themselves through two games of their soon-to-be short postseason run. Karl-Anthony Towns is complaining to the media that he's getting "triple-teamed" on every play? Oh, so Butler, Teague and/or Andrew Wiggins are wide open every play? Why aren't you piling up assists then, KAT?

Excuses, excuses, excuses. Shaquille O'Neal and Charles Barkley KILLED Towns on "Inside the NBA" the other night, and rightfully so. If you want to make an impact, show some urgency and demand a re-post. Kick it out, re-establish position and demand the ball. Then go to work. Shaq and Chuck know what the hell they are talking about.

Just pathetic. Don't even show up if your body language screams we have no chance to win this series. Everyone can see it. Wolves making millions and millions of dollars to quit. Sign me...I'll play hard all 48 minutes.

Despite my disappointment with the Wolves, they'll probably play a close one in Game 3. It's just the nature of the beast. Last I saw the Rockets were -5.5 and 87% of the public was on them. It's a classic "home dog" play; though I would never personally trust these Timberwolves.

We'll see if Minnesota can make it interesting down the stretch. They should really ride Wiggins more; but Thibs has no idea what he's doing. He has to go. The game has passed him by, like Phil Jackson, George Karl and Byron Scott. "Adapt or die," as Brad Pitt says in Moneyball. Thibs wastes athleticism in Towns, Wiggins, Butler, Teague and even Nemanja Bjelica, because they don't push the ball and they aren't being coached properly.

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Ultimately, it looks like these guys don't want to play for Tom Thibodeau. They look like caged birds, dying to get out and fly. Athletes wanna run. They want to have fun out there. Run-and-gun is fun, and it gives everyone on the team a rhythm. Thibs represents the Old Guard, and the Old Guard is long gone.

Part II: Why do the Blazers think it's 2001?

Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are fantastic one-on-one players, and I really do think that Terry Stotts is a good NBA head coach. 

But damn, guys, run some friggin' plays. Mix in some ball and body movement. How about some backdoor cuts?

I say they think it's 2001 because these Blazers essentially treat Lillard and McCollum like Shaq and Kobe Bryant. Oh Shaq got a touch last play? Now let's give it to Kobe, and so on and so forth. 

The Blazers are getting shellacked by Alvin Gentry's Pelicans because they aren't playing REAL basketball. Portland's playing hero ball, and part of the problem is that the rest of its team isn't very good. They may need to take a look at their front office. They dumped an awful lot of now-dead money on Evan Turner. Yeesh. 

Lillard and McCollum look around and don't see much of a reason to pass. Their teammates seem to agree. Other than Al-Farouq Aminu and (sometimes) Jusuf Nurkic, none of the "others" really even try to make an impact. 

Meanwhile, on the other side, hellllllll yeah Pelicans! Very happy for them. Anthony Davis is an absolute freak from another planet; Jrue Holiday is playing with bravado and toughness, a deadly combination; Nikola Mirotic is lighting it up from the perimeter and Rajon Rondo is impacting the game in every possible way. 

I'd like to take a moment to apologize to Rajon for calling him a "pathetic loser" during the 2015 NBA Playoffs. Clearly, the Mavs were just a bad fit for him. Totally different story with Gentry and the Pels. 

And I hate to say it, but this club is definitely better without DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins. Boogie is a top-20 all-around player in the world, but Mirotic gives the Pelicans the floor spacing they need. What a money trade that was. With Mirotic keeping perimeter defenders honest, the driving lanes open up for Holiday and Rondo. Not to mention -- most importantly -- the clean pick-and-roll opportunities with AD. 

I'd like to see the Pels bury the Blazers in Game 4. No need for this lopsided series to continue. 

Part III: Billy Donovan doesn't coach. At all.

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You have a great chance to go up 2-0 against a very tough Utah Jazz team. All you need to do is run some quality sets and get good looks. It's really not that hard. The real teams do it. 

Instead, Billy Donovan lets Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony run wild. Westbrook clearly knows how to pad his stats, but he doesn't know how to close a close game. With his athleticism and ability to penetrate, PG, Melo and Steven Adams should be getting high-percentage looks down the stretch. 

Instead, the Thunder just seem like they are panicking all the time. That's a reflection of Westbrook's low IQ and Donovan's lack of control over his team. Like Thibs, he's another one who needs to go. OKC plays exactly the same way it did under Scott "The Robot" Brooks. Brooks may have been saying "guys, we have to score points" and "guys, we have to get stops" all the time, but whatever Donovan is doing isn't much different. 

On the other bench, Quin Snyder has emerged as one of the elite basketball coaches in the world. For the second-straight season, the Jazz outperformed the talent level of their roster. That's a direct testament to the coach, as well as the determination and hard work of his players. These Jazz are grinders. They run hard. They cut hard. They move the ball. They want to knock off these big names from OKC. 

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Ricky Rubio is shooting the ball better than ever before; Rudy Gobert, as always, is an eraser in the paint; Derrick Favors is playing pretty well and Donovan Mitchell is an ABSOLUTE STUD. What a pick! I just texted my Hot Takes Team the following:

"Just thinking about how painful it is that the Knicks took Frank Ntilikina over Donovan Mitchell."

Everyone cried. 

In the end, I'm rooting for the Rockets, Pelicans and Jazz in these series. PUSH the ball up the court. SPRINT through your sets. PASS the ball to open teammates. KNOCK DOWN good looks. 

Play real basketball. And I'll root for you every time. 

2018 NBA Playoffs: Will Oladipo and His Pacers End The LeBron Era in Cleveland (again)?

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On October 18, 2017, when every NBA team felt the freedom and optimism of a fresh new season, my Brooklyn Nets shot 52% en route to a whopping 131 points...in regulation. We were lights out.

And yet, somehow, those 131 points weren't enough, as Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner, Darren Collison, Thaddeus Young and the rest of the high-powered Pacers dropped 140 on us. It was the fastest pace I've ever seen on opening night, and Indiana ended up with eight players in double-digits.

Well, here we are now, and people are acting like they had no idea the Pacers were any good. Maybe there's some truth to that -- in Game 1, Mike Breen mentioned that they were only on national TV once all season -- but I've had the luxury of watching Nate McMillan's exciting club against my Nets and Knicks. I hated GM Kevin Pritchard's roster heading into the season, but he quickly proved me wrong when I saw that Oladipo was slimmer, quicker and more focused than ever, and McMillan's "defensive-minded" approach was crumpled up and tossed out the window.

Pritchard, McMillan, Oladipo and Collison were completely prepared to evolve with the times, which meant Indiana's lightning-fast backcourt started pushing the ball faster than ever. This bodes well for their personnel, as Young likes to play up and down, Turner is an athletic big who can run-and-gun, Bojan Bogdanovic gets open corner looks in transition, and we're all familiar with Lance Stephenson's helter skelter style of play.

So the question is...are they are a real threat to LeBron James and the Cavs?

In reality, these Indiana Pacers are DEFINITELY better than the Cleveland Cavaliers. As a cohesive basketball team, it's not even close. GM Koby Altman traded Kyrie Irving for Isaiah Thomas, and eventually ended up with Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, George Hill and Larry Nance Jr., which resulted in this:

Hood = not getting the ball in spots where he can thrive; Clarkson = seems to have completely lost the confidence that allowed him to impress as the 6th man in Los Angeles; Hill = old and broken down and Nance = just an energetic role player. Quite a difference from Kyrie.

The Pacers, on the other hand, have played well and played together all season long. Everyone on the floor understands that Oladipo is their alpha dog, and he's thriving on the freedom and responsibility that McMillan and his teammates have given him.

This is a pretty deep club, as well. Cory Joseph is a respectable backup point guard; Domantas Sabonis (another key piece of the Paul George trade) has fit in nicely, and Trevor Booker has provided some useful spunk, energy and offensive rebounding.

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On the flip side, logic told me that LeBron would help Clarkson, Hood and Nance. I thought he might help Clarkson and Hood -- two very talented individual offensive players -- step up to the next level. Unfortunately, I think they feel intimidated by The King. He seems disappointed when they miss open shots on the wings. He doesn't seem to be encouraging them or trying to bring them along. For whatever reason, these trade pieces haven't formed a coherent puzzle.

Johnny Fro's Prediction

Ahhhhh, let's take a shot on this one! Why not, right?

I'll say Oladipo and the Pacers are going to finish the job in Game 6 at home. Before the postseason started, I predicted that LeBron and the Cavs would win 4-1, but that was before their embarrassing Game 1 loss on their homecourt. That changes the complexion of the entire series. And did you see how much better the Pacers actually are?

But, as always, I have concerns...

1. Does the NBA want LeBron in the playoffs so badly that they will make sure every single call goes against the Pacers? Is LeBron going to be shooting 20-25 free throws a night, here?

2. Will LeBron decide to dominate this series, by himself, for 48 minutes a night the rest of the way out? He was lazy at the beginning of Game 1. We know that will change. 

In the end, aren't we all tired of the same old conference finals? Let's get some new blood in there. 

Oladipo...keep doing your thing. 

2018 NBA Postseason Predictions: With Kawhi, Kyrie & Steph Sidelined, Is This Finally CP3's Time for a Title?

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Tomorrow's my 32nd birthday, so unfortunately I don't have enough time to explain my predictions. Regardless, here are Johnny Fro's picks, comin' in hot...

KEY: Upsets, by seed, are in BLUE.

Opening Round

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Eastern Conference:

No. 1 Toronto Raptors over No. 8 Washington Wizards (4-2)

No. 4 Cleveland Cavs over No. 5 Indiana Pacers (4-1)

No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers over No. 6 Miami Heat (4-2)

No. 7 Milwaukee Bucks over No. 2 Boston Celtics (4-2)

Western Conference:

No. 1 Houston Rockets over No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves (4-1)

No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder over No. 5 Utah Jazz (4-1)

No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers over No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans (4-2)

No. 2 Golden State Warriors over No. 7 San Antonio Spurs (4-1)

Conference Semifinals

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No. 4 Cavs over No. 1 Raptors (4-2)

No. 7 Bucks over No. 3 76ers (4-2)

No. 1 Rockets over No. 4 Thunder (4-2)

No. 2 Warriors over No. 3 Blazers (4-2)

Conference Finals

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Cavs over Bucks (4-2)

Rockets over Warriors (4-3)

NBA Finals

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Houston Rockets over Cleveland Cavaliers (4-0)

Hopefully, for the first time, congratulations will be in order for Chris Paul and James Harden. Good luck to all!

MLB Top 250 Players, Part IV: Into My Top 200 We Go...

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Before we burst through the door of my top 200, here's a little recap to this point:

1. Part I was headlined by exciting youngsters Shohei Ohtani, Ozzie Albies and Manuel Margot.
2. Part II featured more accomplished players like Jose Bautista, Dellin Betances and Brandon Belt.
3. Part III was led by rising studs Kyle Schwarber, Byron Buxton, Matt Olson and Mitch Haniger.

And here's an important reminder about my criteria for this list:

1. 45% of the weight will be placed upon 2017 production.

2. 45% of the weight will be placed upon projecting the player's 2018 production, taking history into account, as well as the player's health and team situation.

3. 10% of the weight will be placed upon 2016 production.

Also, with homers at an all-time high, I'm leaning in favor of quality pitchers, where applicable. All right, with housekeeping out of the way, let's rush right back into the action...

200. Ryon Healy, 1B, Mariners: Ya just never know with Billy Beane, ya know? A few years ago Healy was one of the most talked about players in Oakland's system. In his introduction to the bigs, he crushed 13 homers in just 269 ABs, while hitting over .300. He was expected to be a franchise cornerstone going forward and then boom, Beane trades him to the division-rival Mariners for cheap prospects. Regardless, following up that strong intro, Healy hammered 25 homers in '17, his first full season at the major-league level. The 26-year old joins a stronger lineup in Seattle, where he will reap the benefits of protection and production by Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger. Wow, the Mariners' lineup is actually quite impressive.

199. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Indians: Back to back ex-A's. Alonso has always been referred to as a "pure bat," but his numbers never supported that until last season. There are two major reasons why I like Alonso in this spot: (1) Coming off the best year of his life, he joins a winning culture and upbeat clubhouse with the division-champion Indians and (2) how can I put this delicately...the extreme nature of his improvement is, well, interesting. Prior to '17, his career high in homers was 9. Never even touched double digits. Last year Alonso exploded for 28 bombs. Let's see if that rapid acceleration continues in the company of Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez.

198. Dan Straily, SP, Marlins: Has developed into a very solid and dependable big-league starter. 191 innings and 181, back to back, while averaging a 4.00 ERA and roughly 165 Ks per season. Gives you innings -- good innings -- and toes the rubber in one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the game.

197. Evan Gattis, Utility, Astros

196. Archie Bradley, RP, Diamondbacks: Archie couldn't quite cut it as a starter (a consistent ERA above 5.00), so he joined the ranks of Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, Zach Britton and Tommy Hunter, as a failed starter turned lights-out reliever. Archie was one of the top five relievers in baseball last season, flashing a sparkling 1.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. I assumed he would be the Diamondbacks closer this year, but the job was ultimately given to Brad Boxberger, a former closer for the Rays. That means Bradley joins Miller as one of the top setup men in the game.

195. Jimmy Nelson, SP, Brewers: My great friend, Action Network's Matt Zylbert, had always championed Nelson as a possible breakout candidate. After going 8-16 with a 4.62 ERA in '16, Zylbert remained confident that Jimmy was on his way to glory. And, lo and behold, Nelson rewarded his faith with a career-best 3.49 ERA and 199 Ks in 175 IP last season. He was a legit ace for the Brew Crew; unfortunately, a freak injury while running the bases is costing him an inordinate amount of playing time. Nelson is not due back until around the all-star break. Right now, there's simply no way of knowing whether or not he'll return to last year's fine form.

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194. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies: It took awhile for "Cargo" to get a job this spring, but he eventually ended up back with the Rocks. This sweet-swinging outfielder was one of the elite players in the world for awhile, but last season indicated that a decline is under way. We've seen veterans rebound after down years in the past, but if he doesn't, we could see aforementioned youngers like Jameson Taillon, Kyle Schwarber, Gregory Polanco, Byron Buxton and/or Paul DeJong coming for his spot in my top 200.

193. Scott Schebler, OF, Reds: Here's an emerging power hitter who will most certainly continue to benefit from the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. In his first extended look at the big-league level, Schebler hit 9 HRs in just 257 ABs, and he followed that up with 30 bombs in 141 games in '17. Scott is being asked to being asked to replace some of the power that intermittently made its way over to Flushing, in the form of Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier.

192. Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals: Seems to impact winning wherever he goes, particularly throughout the second half of his big-league career. Veteran switch-hitter with a good glove and big-game experience.

191. Eugenio Suarez, 3B/SS, Reds

190. David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks

189. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves: As I mentioned in my NL East preseason predictions, Teheran's flip-floppy results have caused headaches for Atlanta's fans and management. How's this for a roller coaster ride: an all-star in '14 with a 2.89 ERA, then 4.04, then 3.21 (an all-star again), then 4.49. Which guy is he, the all-star or the mediocre pitcher with mediocre stuff? This season will likely provide some clarity as to where Julio's enigmatic career is headed.

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188. Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: Started off like a man on fire last season, which naturally led to my bragging about his exceptional production on my fantasy team. Well, that didn't last very long. Nomar went ICE cold for a few months, ultimately sinking down to a .253 BA. However, he did drive in over 100 runs, and he's a 6'4", 215-lb, good-looking ballplayer who is still just 22 years old. The Rangers have an exciting talent here.

187. Sean Doolittle, CP, Nationals: A live lefty arm who just needs to stay healthy. He's been one of the better left-handed closers.

186. Corey Dickerson, OF, Pirates: An affordable, savvy pick-up for Clint Hurdle and his Pirates. Corey is a solid professional hitter coming off a very nice year. He has a chip on his shoulder, too -- he wasn't happy with the way the Rays organization treated him after a productive season in Tampa.

185. Albert Pujols, 1B/DH, Angels: The engine of "The Machine" is still chuggin'. 31 homers and 119 RBI in '16, followed by 23 and 101 last season. He's arguably the slowest baserunner in the MLB, and his defense is a liability at this stage in his storied career, but Albert can still rake. This guy was born to hit, and you can never sleep on him, no matter how old he is (38).

184. Charlie Morton, SP, Astros: Track the trajectory of this veteran's career: (1) At 24 years old, he went 4-8 with a 6.15 ERA and just 48 Ks in 74 IP. According to Fangraphs, his average fastball was 92.4 MPH. (2) In 2010, he was in the minor leagues. He started 14 games for Indianapolis, the AAA affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates. (3) In 2017, at 33 years old, he went 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 163 Ks in 146 IP for the World Series champion Astros. His average fastball was 95 MPH. Need I say more?

183. Jason Kipnis, 2B/OF, Indians

182. Kelvin Herrera, CP, Royals

181. Odubel Herrera, OF, Phillies: What are the odds of two Herreras, back to back? This was unintentional.

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180. Nick Castellanos, OF/3B, Tigers: Detroit is in rebuilding mode, and its stalwart leaders -- Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez -- are creeping toward the end of their outstanding careers. That makes Castellanos, in his prime at 26, an awfully important organizational piece going forward. His 10 triples were the most in the AL last season, and his 26 homers and 101 RBI were both career highs. For a kid with pop, he's much faster on the bases than you'd expect. He may very well be the face of this retooling franchise.

Creeping closer to my top 150, next time around...

MLB Top 250 Players, Part III: Out With the Old, In With the New (Power Bats and Flamethrowers)

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Shohei Ohtani squeezed his way onto Part I of my list, and I refused to ignore Jose Bautista in Part II. Let's see which big names pop up in Round 3...

(Editor's Note: Mark Rue -- perhaps better known as "Mr. HD" -- is dying to get to my Top 100. With that in mind, I'll try to speed up this process a bit by mixing in some rankings without blurbs. HD, this is what I do for fellow Mets fans.)

229. Michael Brantley, OF, Indians: Very talented all-around outfielder who simply cannot stay on the field.

228. Kevin Gausman, SP, Orioles: Gausman has a great fastball and sharp breaking stuff, but he pitches in a banbox and has dealt with some deadly Yankee, Red Sock and Blue Jay lineups in recent seasons. This hard-throwing righty averaged 95 MPH on his heater last year, while leading the league in starts, with 34. His results weren't as clean as '16 -- when he posted a 3.61 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in tough conditions -- but his 179 Ks were 10th-best in the AL. I expect his 2018 results to normalize in a positive way.

227. Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants

226. Marco Estrada, SP, Blue Jays: This is a tricky one. It's extremely difficult to be an effective starter in the AL East, yet Estrada was one of the best from the second half of '14 through all of '16. He finished 10th in the 2015 Cy Young voting, and was an all-star the following year. However, watching him pitch, I couldn't quite figure out how he was getting it done. His average fastball was less than 90 MPH during that successful run, and there's nothing particularly intimidating or special about him. His plus-changeup is clearly his best weapon, but he fell back to earth in '17 with an awful 4.98 ERA. I tend to think he's going to continue to struggle this season, but I want to keep my personal biases at bay. I'm trying to be fair to every single player on this list. That said, I think this is an appropriate spot for Estrada, who has reached a bit of a crossroads in his interesting career.

225. Jason Vargas, SP, Mets

224. Melky Cabrera, OF, Free Agent: Nobody wants the Melk Man? I'm sure that'll change soon; just takes a couple injuries and teams start looking for ready-made replacements. Melky Cabrera is a professional switch hitter. He hasn't hit lower than .273 since 2010. He's hit over .300 three times, and his career BA is a lovely .286. He's a gap-to-gap hitter who hammered 30+ doubles in each of the past four seasons, and he's a good enough outfielder with an above-average arm. The guy's just a good all-around ballplayer. I'm positive he'll find work.

223. Victor Martinez, DH, Tigers

222. Hector Neris, CP, Phillies

221. Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners: A natural-born hitter with superstar potential at the plate.

220. Mark Melancon, CP, Giants

219. Josh Reddick, OF, Astros

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218. Nick Markakis, OF, Braves

217. Ian Desmond, Utility, Rockies

216. Zach Davies, SP, Brewers

215. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates: Here's an uber-talented kid who hasn't even approached his ceiling yet. At 6'5", 235 lbs with immense power and surprising speed, Polanco is a player who jumps off the screen at you. He's always looked the part, and his best production came in '16 when he crushed 22 HRs, drove in 86 runs and swiped 17 bags. That's the power-speed combination that scouts and organizations always tend to drool over. Last season was marred by injuries and inconsistency, but with Andrew McCutchen out of the way in Pittsburgh, this is Polanco's opportunity to step up and become a true top dog.

214. Arodys Vizcaino, CP, Braves

213. Kyle Schwarber, OF and C, Cubs: I mean, the kid's overrated because people love the longball. Schwarber has cartoon-crazy power, but he's a lifetime .222 hitter who got demoted to the minors last season. I find it interesting, the way players progress to become overrated. Billy Beane and Theo Epstein's "guys" tend to get extra slack. Schwarber burst onto the scene just as the Cubs were becoming the sexy pick of the 2015 season, and he immediately rewarded the prognosticators with some absolutely mammoth bombs. And his power is legit, that's not the issue -- the issue is, can you deal with 150 Ks in just 422 ABs? That's like, painfully frustrating to watch. I think he'll be better this season, but I'm not sold on him as a future superstar at this level.

212. Byron Buxton, OF, Twins: Is this world-class athlete on his way to becoming a world-class ballplayer?

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211. Danny Salazar, P, Indians

210. Tanner Roark, SP, Nationals

209. Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles

208. Brandon Morrow, CP, Cubs

207. Todd Frazier, 3B, Mets

206. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Angels: How quickly we tend to dismiss players after one down year. Kinsler has consistently been one of the premier second basemen of his generation, so his .236 BA last season seemed to come out of nowhere. Detractors will immediately point to his age (35) and the mileage on his body (12 MLB seasons, 1,673 games), but the Angels decided to buy low. I thought that was a very good idea, until Kinsler picked up a nagging groin injury in spring training. Now we have to keep an eye on him. That could be a frustrating issue for a 35-year old professional ballplayer. However, there isn't much pressure on the vet, as most will be focusing on Mike Trout, Ohtani and Justin Upton. I think Kinsler will be particularly important if the Angels are in the playoff hunt down the stretch.

205. Matt Olson, 1B/OF, Athletics

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204. Trevor Story, SS, Rockies

203. Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals

202. Edwin Diaz, Closer, Mariners: I'll keep this one simple: 97.8 was his average fastball last season. Ball explodes out of this kid's right hand. Thirty-four saves and 89 Ks in just 66 innings. Lights. Out.

201. Starlin Castro, 2B, Marlins

We'll get into my Top 200 next time around...