Tuesday, October 18, 2016

NBA Top 100 Players: Five Megastars. Only One Can Be Number One.

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Nearly every offseason, both Sports Illustrated and ESPN release their controversial NBA top 100 players lists (though the latter went with the top 100 of all time this year). More often than not, these lists are teetering on horrendous. ESPN is usually too obsessed with ridiculous metrics, and Sports Illustrated had a particularly rough offseason this year. 

So, as usual, it's my turn to clean up their collective messes. Some important notes before we get started:

1. I'm only going to include short blurbs for rankings that may be considered unorthodox, or require some specific sort of explanation. 

2. My abbreviated ranking system keeps the following in mind: 

(A) Offense is rarer than defense. (B) Can this player carry a team under playoff-type pressure? (C) Role players on top teams are glorified, but they're still just role players. (D) Teams cannot win in the postseason without stars who create for themselves and their teammates. (E) Last season's actual production is more important than this year's projections, but we still have to project a little (obviously in the case of impact rookies). (F) Durability is an invaluable commodity. 

3. Later in the week, I'm going to extend this post to the top 200 players. That should provide some more context. All right, let's go...

100. Marvin Williams, F, Charlotte Hornets (SI: 65)
99. Jarrett Jack, PG, Atlanta Hawks (SI: Unranked)

Jack is an un-flashy veteran coming off a major surgery, but did you know he was 8th in the NBA in assists per game last season (prior to injury)? We know he's always been a crafty one-on-one scorer, but he's also developed his distribution over the years. He's a mentally-tough player, and I respect his ability to hit big shots. 

98. Marcus Morris, F, Detroit Pistons (SI: Unranked)
97. Dennis Schroder, PG, Atlanta Hawks (SI: Unranked)
96. Avery Bradley, G, Boston Celtics (SI: 72)
95. George Hill, PG, Utah Jazz (SI: 56)

As you can see, Sports Illustrated severely overrated Hill. He's a smart, solid professional basketball player, but his lack of explosiveness makes him a liability as a starter at the most competitive position in the sport. His lack of foot speed makes him a weak penetrator, and you have to break down the opposing D to be truly successful in the NBA. Hill is just a nice player; he's not a near top 50 guy. 

94. Tyreke Evans, G/F, New Orleans Pelicans (SI: Unranked)
93. Zach LaVine, G, Minnesota Timberwolves
92. Markieff Morris, PF, Washington Wizards (SI: Unranked)
91. Thaddeus Young, F, Indiana Pacers (SI: 66)
90. Kenneth Faried, PF, Denver Nuggets (SI: 87, we almost agreed on this one)
89. Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings (SI: Unranked)

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88. Enes Kanter, PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 88, wow!)
87. Tristan Thompson, C, Cleveland Cavs (SI: 52)

Remember what I said about the glorification of role players on high-quality teams? Need I say more right now? Nevertheless, I will. I actually really like Tristan -- I would certainly welcome him with open arms to my Nets or Knicks -- but he's essentially just a coordinated finisher and offensive rebounder. He doesn't work nearly as hard in the regular season as he does in the playoffs. You can't be the 52nd best player in the NBA, simply because you rebound well in a handful of higher-leverage games. 

86. Steven Adams, C, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 40!!!)

This SI ranking is bordering on insanity. Do you remember anyone gushing about Steven Adams during the regular season? No, he was just a solid big splitting minutes with Serge Ibaka and the aforementioned Enes Kanter. He contributes nicely during the postseason, so SI skyrockets him into the top 40? He's just a tough guy who is improving his finishing around the cup. Steven Adams is not an electric player. In the top 40 we should be talking about primetime guys. 

85. Chandler Parsons, SF, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 51)
84. Deron Williams, PG, Dallas Mavericks (SI: Unranked)

I hate D-Will because of his shitty attitude when he played for my Nets, but the fact remains that he's a talented all-around point guard who can penetrate, knock down mid-range jumpers and treys, dish with the best of 'em and defend well when he wants to. The problems are keeping him healthy and happy. Easier said than done. 

83. Jamal Crawford, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: Unranked)

You gotta be kidding me, Sports Illustrated! Cody Zeller (94), Mason Plumlee (93) and Bismack Biyombo (91) are on your list, but the greatest bench player of his generation is not? "J-Crossover" is a jaw-dropping solo offensive performer who leaves "lingerie on the deck," as the hilarious announcer and ex-coach Bill Raftery would say. That means he fakes defenders out of their clothes. Jamal is durable and dependable, and he can carry your offense through periods of stagnation. Seriously...Bismack F***in Biyombo?!!

82. Harrison Barnes, SF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: Unranked)
81. DeMarre Carroll, SF, Toronto Raptors (SI: 73)
80. Jabari Parker, F, Milwaukee Bucks
79. Kyle Korver, SF, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 70)

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78. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Detroit Pistons (SI: Unranked)

A young, versatile performer settling into his niche on a quality team in the midst of successful development. If they can survive temporarily without Reggie Jackson, the Pistons will further their collective improvement under Stan Van Gundy, and Kentavious will continue to knock down jumpers from all distances while providing useful length and athleticism for his position. 

77. Kent Bazemore, SG/SF, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 90)
76. Jeremy Lin, PG, Brooklyn Nets (SI: Unranked)

Lin was one of the most valuable players on an overachieving Hornets team last season, and now he's in Brooklyn to play second fiddle to Brook Lopez. If he stays healthy, Lin will post career bests across the board, with the exception being that astonishing run of "Linsanity" with the Knicks. He's a smart player who can penetrate and shoot, while always playing with a ton of passion. Brooklyn's fanbase is certainly going to love him. 

75. Tony Parker, PG, San Antonio Spurs (SI: Unranked)

Clint Capela (79) and Nikola Jokic (78) are in SI's top 80, and Tony Parker isn't on their list at all. I'm going to stop this blurb right here, before I have a coronary. 

74. Serge Ibaka, PF/C, Orlando Magic (SI: 42)

Another glorified role player. SI absolutely loves bigs and role players, so it makes sense to see Serge at 42 on their ridiculous list. He's a good mid-range shooter who has stretched beyond the three-point arc, but he's never developed a back-to-the-basket game or all-around offensive repertoire. His defense is overrated because he's a flashy shotblocker. He disappears for stretches of games and weeks of seasons. He'll help the Magic, but he's not a top 50 player. 

73. Evan Fournier, SG, Orlando Magic (SI: 95)
72. Monta Ellis, SG, Indiana Pacers (SI: Unranked)

Exactly the type of player SI doesn't like: A veteran guard with plenty of postseason experience who can create off the dribble for himself and others. A crunchtime player who has the balls to make big shots. A baller with basketball in his blood. 

71. Dwight Howard, C, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 34!!!)

I've always been a Dwight defender, but he can barely get up and down the court these days! He's taken a beating in the paint for many years now. His back, flexibility and athleticism simply aren't what they used to be. He'll defend and rebound when he's physically capable of doing so, which will be around half of the time. That's not the 34th best player in the NBA. 

70. Brandon Knight, PG, Phoenix Suns (SI: 98)
69. Ryan Anderson, PF, Houston Rockets (SI: 89)
68. Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz (SI: 33!!!! I already discussed this travesty in another post.)
67. Eric Gordon, SG
66. Ben Simmons, G/F, Philadelphia 76ers (SI: Unranked)

We've all heard the hype that suggests he can become a top 10 all-around player, so I figured this was a nice, conservative projection based on his massive upside. His injury quickly knocked him out of top 50 consideration. Gotta love his size, athleticism, ball skills and versatility, though. 

65. J.J. Redick, SG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 59)
64. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Denver Nuggets (SI: Unranked)

Man, SI hates guards. Mudiay already flashed the ability to stuff the stat sheet as a rookie, he just needs to cut down on his turnovers. Denver is trending in the right direction, and Mudiay is positioned to grow alongside his young teammates Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic (yes, I know I made fun of him before, but you'll see him in my top 200 later on this week). 

63. Derrick Rose, PG, New York Knicks (SI: Unranked)

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62. Rudy Gay, SF, Sacramento Kings (SI: 80)
61. Wesley Matthews, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: 92)
60. Jordan Clarkson, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (SI: Unranked???)

Huh? A young, high-upside, super athletic combo guard who has already displayed consistent NBA productivity isn't a top 100 guy? I guess he needs to block more shots or be a limited role player. 

59. Greg Monroe, PF/C, Milwaukee Bucks (SI: 63)
58. Nicolas Batum, SG/SF, Charlotte Hornets (SI: 43)
57. Tobias Harris, F, Detroit Pistons (SI: 77)
56. Jae Crowder, SF, Boston Celtics (SI: 53)
55. Derrick Favors, PF, Utah Jazz (SI: 28???)

When did Derrick Favors become an international superstar? When the Jazz made their breakout playoff run? No, neither of those things ever happened. He's a solid all-around professional power forward; not the 28th best player in the game. Come on, now. I promise you either Rob Mahoney or Ben Golliver is a Jazz fan. Or both. 

54. Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 71)
53. Devin Booker, G/F, Phoenix Suns

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52. Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat (SI: 61)
51. Victor Oladipo, SG, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 74)
50. Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic (SI: 75)
49. Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 22)

He's coming off injury and was already slow, lumbering and consistently overvalued. A savvy basketball player with an overrated skillset, Marc is right where he belongs at 49. Good defender, good passer, not a franchise player for an upper-echelon organization. 

48. Zach Randolph, PF, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 64)
47. Jeff Teague, PG, Indiana Pacers (SI: 57)
46. Khris Middleton, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks (SI: 39)
45. Eric Bledsoe, G, Phoenix Suns (SI: 49)
44. Reggie Jackson, PG, Detroit Pistons (SI: 54)
43. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, New York Knicks (SI: 68)

When Steve Summer thinks I'm overrating someone, I'm obligated to explain: What more can you possibly want from a second-year player? Am I allowed to explain by asking a question? Porzingis is a friggin' giant with a ridiculous wingspan who can score, block shots and fit perfectly within an unselfish, team-oriented offensive system. He's the ideal pick-and-pop big -- who is gonna contest his silky, mid-range jumper with an Empire State Building release? Sky's the limit for this kid...corny pun intended. 

42. Kevin Love, PF, Cleveland Cavs (SI: 30)
41. Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards (SI: 58)

Punished for constantly getting injured. Ya gotta stay on the court. Talent wise, he's probably closer to the top 30. 

40. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 20)

My loyal readers know I absolutely despise DeAndre and his incessant hype, but I have to be unbiased here. I'm rewarding him for his durability, rebounding and shotblocking. I don't value role players highly on lists like these; but he's one of the better ones. 

39. Pau Gasol, C, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 41)
38. Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors (SI: 62)

One of my most improved players last season. Jonas' value was abundantly clear when he went down during the Raptors' ugly, opening-round playoff series against the Pacers. When he was on the floor, the Pacers were unable to get all the way to the rim, and it seemed impossible for them to come up with an offensive rebound. Jonas is humongous, coordinated, tough and diligent. He's uber-strong on the low block, and has a surprisingly nice touch at the foul line. Only reasons his numbers never balloon are hogs Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Keep the big fella involved!

37. Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 67) 

We all knew about his showstopping athleticism coming out of college, but he's already a more well-rounded scorer than I thought he'd be. Wiggins averaged 20.7 points per game at age 20, ahead of proven studs like John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki and LaMarcus Aldridge. Gotta think Thibs is gonna make him even better. 

36. Gordon Hayward, SG/SF, Utah Jazz (SI: 27)
35. DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors (SI: 46)

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34. Mike Conley, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (SI: 26)
33. Giannis Antetokounmpo, G/F, Milwaukee Bucks
32. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Dallas Mavericks (SI: 31)
31. Al Horford, C, Boston Celtics (SI: 18)

Notice anything about Bismack Biyombo, Thaddeus Young, Chandler Parsons, Serge Ibaka, Dwight Howard, Mike Conley and now Horford? SI got overexcited about players who got paid this offseason, or were involved in high-profile trades. It's a predictable psychological phenomenon -- the NBA offseason garners a significant amount of media attention, so these names seep into the collective unconscious of the writers, thus artificially inflating their values in lists like these. Horford is a technically-sound all-around basketball player, but there were many nights in Atlanta where you couldn't tell if he was better or more valuable than Jeff Teague, Kent Bazemore or Kyle Korver. His impact is surprisingly elusive at times. 

30. Danilo Gallinari, SF, Denver Nuggets (SI: 47)

A truly versatile scorer is the rarest commodity in professional basketball. Gallo can dribble drive left and right, pull-up, step-back, fade-away, pump-fake, draw contact, hit middies and treys. He's a go-to scorer, but he has to stay healthy. 

29. C.J. McCollum, SG, Portland Trail Blazers (SI: 50)

I don't think I've ever seen an NBA player complete a full transformation faster than C.J. McCollum. When he first came into the league he was overrated, overmatched and a little out of shape. He didn't know if he was a 2 or a 1, and neither did the Blazers. The result was an awkward player who was producing a net negative value rating. However, everything changed instantaneously during the opening round of the 2014-15 playoffs. The LaMarcus Aldridge/Nicolas Batum/Wesley Matthews era was coming to an unceremonious end during a first round beating at the hands of the higher-class Spurs, but one Blazer refused to go quietly: He was, of course, McCollum. In that series, C.J. dedicated himself to the "attack" message that Terry Stotts is always preaching, and the former's confidence has remained intact since. McCollum is now a lightning-quick, hyper-aggressive, dangerous volume scorer who keeps opposing defenders on their heels alongside Damian Lillard. Both Portland guards have blazing releases.

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28. Isaiah Thomas, PG, Boston Celtics (SI: 45)
27. Jimmy Butler, SG/SF, Chicago Bulls (SI: 16)
26. Hassan Whiteside, C, Miami Heat
25. Dwyane Wade, SG, Chicago Bulls (SI: 32)

Within the organization, the Bulls are calling it "Jimmy Butler's team," but I still think that under duress, D-Wade will carry you more effectively than Butler can. Wade was, once again, one of the premier offensive focal points last postseason. His pacing, control and crunchtime one-on-one prowess place him comfortably among the all-time greats. He's still a fantastic all-around player, and his big-game experience is invaluable. 

24. Draymond Green, F/C, Golden State Warriors (SI: 13)
23. Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons (SI: 29)
22. Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets (SI: 38)

People always say I'm a "homer" when it comes to my Brook Lopez rankings, but I'm as unbiased as they come. When the Mets suck, I let everybody know about it, and when the Jets suck, I sing it to the world. So when I tell you that Brook Lopez is the 22nd best player in the world, rest assured you can believe me. 

Behind megastars like Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson, Lopez is one of the best offensive centers I've ever seen. He's huge but has an unbelievably soft touch, which makes him a high-percentage finisher around the cup, as well as one of the elite mid-range shooters at his position. Brook is also extremely coordinated, and when you consider the headaches that bigs like Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond cause at the foul line, the former's 75-82% free throw shooting becomes invaluable. Brook's also a drastically underrated shot blocker.

21. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 11)

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20. Paul Millsap, F/C, Atlanta Hawks (SI: 15)
19. John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards (SI: 17)
18. Kyle Lowry, PG, Toronto Raptors (SI: 14)
17. Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors (SI: 19)
16. Kemba Walker, PG, Charlotte Hornets
15. Carmelo Anthony, F, New York Knicks (SI: 24)
14. DeMarcus Cousins, C, Sacramento Kings (SI: 12)

I punished him for consistent disciplinary issues, as well as his inability to elevate the collective play of his surrounding cast. Cousins is an all-world, all-around talent who is limited by his childish behavior and lack of professionalism. 

13. Anthony Davis, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans (SI: 8)

Davis is easier to get along with than Cousins, but has some similar issues: (1) Gets down on himself and teammates when things aren't going well. (2) Doesn't make his teammates any better. (3) Hasn't yet proven to be a go-to guy on a team to be reckoned with. Also, rather obviously, he's injury-prone. 

12. Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 10)
11. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Minnesota Timberwolves (SI: 23)

Not sure I've ever seen anyone quite like this kid -- he's a mentally and physically stronger version of Anthony Davis, with a more electric two-way repertoire. There's no question he'll end up one of the top 10 players in the universe; likely top 5. Just need to see the Wolves create a winning culture, first. 

10. Paul George, F, Indiana Pacers (SI: 9)
9. Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers (SI: 8)
8. Kyrie Irving, PG, Cleveland Cavaliers (SI: 25)

I've had so many arguments about Kyrie that I'm getting a bit sick of it, but I'll explain myself again briefly: How many players in the world can consistently get all the way to the rim with their right or left, draw fouls, post-up, pull-up, hit mid-range shots with ease, fade-aways and hit threes? The answer is LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard and last but not least, Kyrie Irving. Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook don't feature post-ups. That's how rare Kyrie is -- he's the perfect offensive machine. Not to mention that he has balls of steel and is an immensely entertaining player to watch. Kyrie's the man; you can't convince me otherwise. That SI ranking is a f--king tragedy. Open your eyes! Use common sense! Forget the absurd metrics. 

7. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (SI: 6)

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6. Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers (SI: 4)
5. James Harden, G/F, Houston Rockets (SI: 7)
4. Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder (SI: 5)
3. Kevin Durant, SF, Golden State Warriors (SI: 2)
2. Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors (SI: 3)

Splitting hairs between KD and Steph. I'm giving Steph the temporary nod because he was still the most dominant regular-season player for the second-straight year. Just needs to stop sucking in the NBA Finals.

1. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers: There is only one King. 

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