When front-line starter Jake Arrieta was initially rumored to have interest from the Nationals, I was ready to wrap up the NL East, throw on a bow and ship it over to Washington. Luckily for fans of the division's other teams, the all-star right-hander ultimately signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Philly's statement-making acquisition doesn't change the fact that the Nats are the clear front-runners to win this division, but at least it saves everyone the trouble of having to face Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Arrieta in the same rotation.
Does this big-money move mean President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak are going for it this year? The Phils haven't won more than 73 games in any of their past five seasons; perhaps the front office is simply fed up. Or is this the beginning of a master plan that leads to an all-in pitch to future free agent superstar Bryce Harper?
Time will tell. Okay, let's get into my projections...
(Oh, by the way, don't forget to check out my AL East predictions.)
5. Miami Marlins - Frascella's projection: 59-103
Derek Jeter is going all Sam Hinkie on us. I feel like "The Process" is starting all over again, this time in Miami. Gone are the franchise's elite players -- Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon -- and manager Don Mattingly is left with J.T. Riddle and Derek Dietrich.
Who? Yeah, that's exactly the point.
This is a classic hatchet job. The Marlins are tanking real hard, and everybody knows exactly what's going on. C J.T. Realmuto and 1B Justin Bour have become the de facto leaders of this depleted offense, while Dan Straily and Jose Urena will be asked to carry Miami's unsightly pitching staff. No need to go on, here.
4. Atlanta Braves - Frascella's projection: 73-89
Not much has changed from last year. Freddie Freeman continues to be Atlanta's franchise player, with Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis as his unspectacular offensive sidekicks. Manager Brian Snitker -- I really don't know who that is -- will be looking for youngsters Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Johan Camargo and Ronald Acuna to step up a level this season. Acuna, Camargo and Albies all look quite promising to me. In a couple of years we could be looking at 85+ wins here.
On the bump, who knows what to expect from Julio Teheran? His results have been all over the place in the past 4-5 seasons. I don't think he'll bounce back much because his stuff simply isn't sharp any more. He's a grinder now, and soft-tossing grinders get hammered in today's MLB climate. When I see Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir in a rotation, I think old guys who will get injured.
In the pen, ya gotta like the hard-throwing duo of Jose Ramirez and Arodys Vizcaino. These kids don't mess around when they take the ball, and they have the pure stuff to support their bravado.
Be patient, Braves fans. It isn't your time...yet.
3. New York Mets - Frascella's projection: 78-84
The Wilpons and GM Sandy Alderson just don't want to win. Either that or they're the three-headed equivalent of The Stooges.
I look around the league and I see the Yankees trading for Stanton. The Sox shell out for J.D. Martinez. The Cards nab Ozuna. Even the Padres empty the bank on Eric Hosmer. These are big-time ballplayers who are ready to make an immediate impact.
So what do the lowly Mets do? They get Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas, three old men who are replacement-level players. Alderson could have done absolutely nothing and gotten the same production from Wilmer Flores, Brandon Nimmo and Zack Wheeler (with Jay Bruce at first). These are purely "name" moves. Nothing more. They have no real impact. They may, in fact, be negatives.
Even worse, franchise cornerstone Michael Conforto is entering the season with a continuing shoulder issue. He's due back around May 1, but will he truly be himself?
The only bright spots of the offseason are new manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland. The hope is that these experienced pitching experts can straighten out some of New York's wild cards like Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman and Rafael Montero. Not a chance they can all be fixed, though.
In the end, we all know the deal -- this club can only compete for a playoff spot if Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Jeurys Familia, Yoenis Cespedes and Bruce all stay healthy and have huge years. And we're talking about the Mets here...so what are the odds of that happening?
2. Philadelphia Phillies - Frascella's projection: 81-81
Slowly but surely, the Phillies' rebuild is taking shape. Carlos Santana and Arrieta have been signed to catch the attention of Bryce Harper (and to help this season, of course). Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera are solid big leaguers. Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez provide upside assistance for Arrieta in the rotation.
The back of Philly's bullpen looks strong with Luis Garcia, flamethrower Tommy Hunter and tricky Pat Neshek leading up to ascending closer Hector Neris.
So the big question for rookie manager Gabe Kapler will be his power-hitting outfielder Rhys Hoskins. The 24-year old slugger crushed 18 homers in just 170 major league ABs last season. He was demolishing baseballs. It honestly seemed like he was mashing a homer every game (though the actual math was one HR every 2.7 games).
The obvious question...is production like that even close to sustainable for such a young and green hitter? An effective scouting report has to emerge, right?
We can't possibly have the answers yet, but the Phillies will be counting on Hoskins no matter what. If they want to hold off the Mets for second, Hoskins and Velasquez are the momentum-swinging players who need to deliver.
1. Washington Nationals - Frascella's projection: 94-68
My only concerns pertain to Daniel Murphy: (1) How will his offseason knee surgery affect his performance and (2) Can he really continue producing at an all-world level, anyway? I have to think he comes back to earth some this year.
Elsewhere, ya can't knock this club, particularly considering their competition in this division. Harper, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner are primetime players, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Eaton and Howie Kendrick are solid vets and, of course, Scherzer, Strasburg and Gio are as scary as they come atop a rotation. I think Tanner Roark has a bounce-back year as well.
In years past, Washington's obvious weakness was its bullpen; but experienced GM Mike Rizzo has cleaned up a mess with Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler and Joaquin Benoit. New manager Dave Martinez has multiple options to close, and Doolittle's left arm allows for him to be used in different high-leverage situations. With Madson and Kintzler both fully capable of closing, perhaps Martinez will occasionally use Doolittle the way Cleveland flexes Andrew Miller.
No matter what the strategy, the Nationals are winning the NL East. Maybe the Mets should have considered signing some real players.
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