Thursday, April 5, 2018

MLB Top 250 Players, Part III: Out With the Old, In With the New (Power Bats and Flamethrowers)

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Shohei Ohtani squeezed his way onto Part I of my list, and I refused to ignore Jose Bautista in Part II. Let's see which big names pop up in Round 3...

(Editor's Note: Mark Rue -- perhaps better known as "Mr. HD" -- is dying to get to my Top 100. With that in mind, I'll try to speed up this process a bit by mixing in some rankings without blurbs. HD, this is what I do for fellow Mets fans.)

229. Michael Brantley, OF, Indians: Very talented all-around outfielder who simply cannot stay on the field.

228. Kevin Gausman, SP, Orioles: Gausman has a great fastball and sharp breaking stuff, but he pitches in a banbox and has dealt with some deadly Yankee, Red Sock and Blue Jay lineups in recent seasons. This hard-throwing righty averaged 95 MPH on his heater last year, while leading the league in starts, with 34. His results weren't as clean as '16 -- when he posted a 3.61 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in tough conditions -- but his 179 Ks were 10th-best in the AL. I expect his 2018 results to normalize in a positive way.

227. Brandon Crawford, SS, Giants

226. Marco Estrada, SP, Blue Jays: This is a tricky one. It's extremely difficult to be an effective starter in the AL East, yet Estrada was one of the best from the second half of '14 through all of '16. He finished 10th in the 2015 Cy Young voting, and was an all-star the following year. However, watching him pitch, I couldn't quite figure out how he was getting it done. His average fastball was less than 90 MPH during that successful run, and there's nothing particularly intimidating or special about him. His plus-changeup is clearly his best weapon, but he fell back to earth in '17 with an awful 4.98 ERA. I tend to think he's going to continue to struggle this season, but I want to keep my personal biases at bay. I'm trying to be fair to every single player on this list. That said, I think this is an appropriate spot for Estrada, who has reached a bit of a crossroads in his interesting career.

225. Jason Vargas, SP, Mets

224. Melky Cabrera, OF, Free Agent: Nobody wants the Melk Man? I'm sure that'll change soon; just takes a couple injuries and teams start looking for ready-made replacements. Melky Cabrera is a professional switch hitter. He hasn't hit lower than .273 since 2010. He's hit over .300 three times, and his career BA is a lovely .286. He's a gap-to-gap hitter who hammered 30+ doubles in each of the past four seasons, and he's a good enough outfielder with an above-average arm. The guy's just a good all-around ballplayer. I'm positive he'll find work.

223. Victor Martinez, DH, Tigers

222. Hector Neris, CP, Phillies

221. Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners: A natural-born hitter with superstar potential at the plate.

220. Mark Melancon, CP, Giants

219. Josh Reddick, OF, Astros

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218. Nick Markakis, OF, Braves

217. Ian Desmond, Utility, Rockies

216. Zach Davies, SP, Brewers

215. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates: Here's an uber-talented kid who hasn't even approached his ceiling yet. At 6'5", 235 lbs with immense power and surprising speed, Polanco is a player who jumps off the screen at you. He's always looked the part, and his best production came in '16 when he crushed 22 HRs, drove in 86 runs and swiped 17 bags. That's the power-speed combination that scouts and organizations always tend to drool over. Last season was marred by injuries and inconsistency, but with Andrew McCutchen out of the way in Pittsburgh, this is Polanco's opportunity to step up and become a true top dog.

214. Arodys Vizcaino, CP, Braves

213. Kyle Schwarber, OF and C, Cubs: I mean, the kid's overrated because people love the longball. Schwarber has cartoon-crazy power, but he's a lifetime .222 hitter who got demoted to the minors last season. I find it interesting, the way players progress to become overrated. Billy Beane and Theo Epstein's "guys" tend to get extra slack. Schwarber burst onto the scene just as the Cubs were becoming the sexy pick of the 2015 season, and he immediately rewarded the prognosticators with some absolutely mammoth bombs. And his power is legit, that's not the issue -- the issue is, can you deal with 150 Ks in just 422 ABs? That's like, painfully frustrating to watch. I think he'll be better this season, but I'm not sold on him as a future superstar at this level.

212. Byron Buxton, OF, Twins: Is this world-class athlete on his way to becoming a world-class ballplayer?

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211. Danny Salazar, P, Indians

210. Tanner Roark, SP, Nationals

209. Chris Davis, 1B, Orioles

208. Brandon Morrow, CP, Cubs

207. Todd Frazier, 3B, Mets

206. Ian Kinsler, 2B, Angels: How quickly we tend to dismiss players after one down year. Kinsler has consistently been one of the premier second basemen of his generation, so his .236 BA last season seemed to come out of nowhere. Detractors will immediately point to his age (35) and the mileage on his body (12 MLB seasons, 1,673 games), but the Angels decided to buy low. I thought that was a very good idea, until Kinsler picked up a nagging groin injury in spring training. Now we have to keep an eye on him. That could be a frustrating issue for a 35-year old professional ballplayer. However, there isn't much pressure on the vet, as most will be focusing on Mike Trout, Ohtani and Justin Upton. I think Kinsler will be particularly important if the Angels are in the playoff hunt down the stretch.

205. Matt Olson, 1B/OF, Athletics

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204. Trevor Story, SS, Rockies

203. Paul DeJong, SS, Cardinals

202. Edwin Diaz, Closer, Mariners: I'll keep this one simple: 97.8 was his average fastball last season. Ball explodes out of this kid's right hand. Thirty-four saves and 89 Ks in just 66 innings. Lights. Out.

201. Starlin Castro, 2B, Marlins

We'll get into my Top 200 next time around...

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