"I'm mentally preparing myself for the Jets to take Baker Mayfield," he said.
"Listen, if the Jets want to draft A.J. McCarron, then so be it!" I barked.
"Noooo, that's not fair," Frank said, "I think Mayfield's skillset is a combination of Johnny Manziel, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson."
"I think that is a severe over-exaggeration," I snapped.
"I'm not saying he'll be as good as Watson or Wilson," Frank clarified, "I'm simply talking about the way he plays the position."
So is Mayfield the right guy for GM Mike Maccagnan, HC Todd Bowles and the hopeful Jets fans on the east coast? The only way to answer that question is to examine each candidate, one by one...
Option #1: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
My loyal readers know that I'm not much of a college football fan. Growing up watching the Jets, Giants and Patriots in the northeast, I became accustomed to a certain level of defensive football. As we all know, when you match a top collegiate offense up against a lesser squad, we end up seeing painful scores like 63-0. And that just isn't fun. For the most part, defense is an illusion at the college level.
So, writing this piece, I want to make it clear that I'm NOT a college football expert. I am, however, very experienced at analyzing quarterbacks. If you want to perform a background check before reading on, check out my last two QB rankings:
I was lucky enough to watch this season's Rose Bowl end-to-end. I watched VERY closely because I had a gut feeling the Jets would end up with Mayfield. In that wild, back-and-forth contest, Mayfield ended up 23-of-35 with 287 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Here's what I saw:
ACCURACY: Mayfield was very accurate, particularly in the first half. He seemed quite comfortable with the scripted portion of Oklahoma's offensive gameplan, which lead to good timing and quality, sustained drives. Mayfield had Oklahoma's offense in rhythm, and he drove them down the field with relative ease.
RED FLAG #1: Even when the Sooners were cruising on their way to paydirt, Mayfield appeared to be GUIDING the ball into collegiate-level throwing windows. As I said to Frank on the phone earlier today, I wasn't impressed by a single throw that Mayfield made. To me, he seemed like a kid who had total command and control of the college game. We've seen situations like this before: Matt Leinart, Joey Harrington, David Carr, Danny Wuerffel and Tim Couch. I'm not saying Mayfield will be as bad as all or any of those guys; but way back when, I had similar concerns about their pure arm strength. They were all outstanding college football players; but when they released the ball, they didn't LOOK like NFL quarterbacks to me. You know? Like, when Matthew Stafford or Kirk Cousins let go of the ball it's just like...wow. You can feel the sizzle. And those aren't even top-5 guys.
Mayfield is a smart kid and fearless competitor who settled into a comfort zone at the NCAA D-1 level. He was completely aware of the size of the throwing windows, which means his average arm strength was always disguised by easily completed passes.
MOBILITY: Good. Should be fine at the NFL level, provided he develops pocket awareness of the speed of professional edge rushers. In addition, scrambling for first downs every once in awhile really keeps the opposing defense honest. We have seen Wilson, Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota and even Colin Kaepernick at their bests when defensive timing is thrown off by the mix-and-match of pass-and-run. Mayfield will need this, especially early on in his pro career. He'll also need to know when to slide.
SIZE: I see him listed at 6'1", and I'm sure that's legit, but he looks awfully small out there. There were concerns about Manziel's height, and he was only an inch shorter. It's extremely difficult to find and develop a true franchise quarterback in Mayfield's size range. This is a major concern for me, as he attempts to deal with the big and beastly defenders in the NFL.
JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:
ACCURACY: Jared Goff
ARM STRENGTH: A.J. McCarron, Brian Hoyer & Case Keenum
SIZE: Tyrod Taylor
MOBILITY: Mariota & Ryan Tannehill
OVERALL: Dak Prescott
Option #2: Josh Rosen, UCLA
So I caught Rosen against Sam Darnold and his USC Trojans on November 18, 2017. He was SUPER impressive, going 32-of-52 for 421 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Darnold, on the other hand, finished with just 264 yards, 1 INT and zero TDs. It was an absolute no-contest.
This game was a great barometer because everyone was watching. At the time, Darnold and Rosen were the consensus top two picks. That's when you see what a kid is made of. Rosen stepped up to the challenge without batting an eye, while Darnold looked smaller, weaker and less-NFL ready.
ACCURACY: Rosen may not be as accurate at Mayfield, but because of his superior natural ability, Rosen takes riskier shots into tighter, NFL-like windows. His style of play at the collegiate level is more conducive to a transition to the big leagues.
Mayfield is known as an "aggressive" quarterback, but that label is very much a part of his carefully-crafted persona. Baker likes to talk smack and back it up. He likes to win and rub it in. So he seems very aggressive, when in reality, on the field, he's a ball-control QB who is desperately trying to limit turnovers. And from a mindset perspective, obviously that's a good thing. HOWEVER, we're talking about the No. 3 overall selection in the NFL draft, here. Do you want a poor man's Alex Smith, or someone with the upside to single-handedly propel your franchise into a perennial Super Bowl contender?
I'm not saying that's necessarily Rosen. But he has more of a chance to be that than Mayfield. Rosen has the physical tools and gifts. Mayfield is small, weaker and inherently limited.
MOBILITY: Rosen likes to stay in the pocket. He'll need to get the ball out quickly and/or defer to check-downs when necessary. If you watch the film of his performance against USC, you'll see that despite his impressive arm strength, Rosen has no issue with checking down. That shows his lack of on-field hubris, which is important.
SIZE: Listed at 6'4". He's at the high end of the NFL position average.
JOHNNY FRO'S NFL COMPARISONS:
ARM STRENGTH: Andrew Luck & Carson Wentz
SIZE: Eli Manning
MOBILITY: Eli Manning & Philip Rivers
OVERALL: Derek Carr
Option #3: Sam Darnold, USC
Heading into the 2017-18 NFL season, I thought Darnold was the guy for my Jets. I had seen his uncanny ability to deliver in the clutch, and he made some really tight-window TD throws in his freshman year.
But I don't know what happened as a sophomore. Maybe defenses got hip to him. Darnold somehow looked smaller, weaker and sometimes (shockingly) overmatched. If you watched him on the same field with Rosen, you'd think they didn't belong on that same field. Darnold throws a lot of lame ducks. His ball often seems to die in the air. He needs to bulk up and add pure velocity.
Doesn't matter, anyway, because most reports and mock drafts have the Browns taking Darnold at No. 1. Good luck with that. Nothing ever works out for the Browns, anyway.
ACCURACY: Andy Dalton
ARM STRENGTH: Mitchell Trubisky, Blaine Gabbert & Matt Barkley
SIZE: Teddy Bridgewater & Ryan Fitzpatrick
MOBILITY: Alex Smith & Blake Bortles
OVERALL: Andy Dalton
Option #4: Josh Allen, Wyoming
By this point, I think we all know that Allen has the biggest arm of this foursome. I'd say it's Allen, Rosen, Mayfield then Darnold in that order (though it's awfully close between the latter two). But there's absolutely no doubt that Allen is a project. Mayfield protects the ball and is an accurate thrower. Rosen is a physically gifted quarterback whose accuracy is far superior to Allen's. Darnold is inconsistent, but scouts believe he has the highest overall upside.
Allen is just a big arm who occasionally completes a pass. He's not quite "Wild Thing" Ricky Vaughn, but he's about as far away from Drew Brees as Robert Griffin III. We've seen big, lumbering guys like this before. Allen's upside is Drew Bledsoe or Vinny Testaverde. The bottom, more likely end of his spectrum contains Paxton Lynch and Ryan Mallett. You can see why this is a slippery slope.
ACCURACY: Landry Jones
ARM STRENGTH: Joe Flacco & Jay Cutler
SIZE: Carson Palmer & Philip Rivers
MOBILITY: Sam Bradford & Tom Savage
OVERALL: Chad Henne
Part 5: What Would John Frascella Do?
I'd take Rosen without hesitating. I don't think he can be a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, but I DO believe he can be a Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins or Andrew Luck. That's pretty damn good. I'll take that over Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton or Chad Henne any day of the week.
Part 6: What Will the Jets Do?
The Jets will take Mayfield. He's winning them over in interviews. Kid knows how to talk the talk. He reminds me of Sam Bradford that way. Bradford's been tricking everyone for years. He's just an overpaid, colossal bust.
Let me say this...as an NFL prospect, most of the year, Mayfield was considered CLEARLY behind Darnold and Rosen. 95% of the scouts and analysts had Allen clearly ahead of Mayfield. Often, Mayfield was referenced in the "next group" with Lamar Jackson out of Louisville.
So how the heck did he get to the point where he suddenly may get drafted before Rosen? What changed on the football FIELD? Anything?
No. Baker Mayfield interviews well. Honestly, I really don't care about interviews. I care about pure NFL talent.
The Jets are going to get tricked into this pick. Don't tell me you're surprised...
They've never been hard to fool.
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