In June of 2017, I posted my last MLB Top 200 players list, and it was met by some pretty harsh criticism from members of my very own Hot Takes Team, including senior analysts Steven Summer and Frank Valeriano. Some of the primary arguments revolved around Robbie Ray vs. Jake Arrieta and Freddie Freeman vs. Joey Votto. You can see how difficult it is to produce a list like this, when we're splitting hairs to that degree. This is truly an impossible task.
When prepping a list like this in the middle of the season (like last time), the general logic is as follows: you have to take the production you've seen to that point, then project where that particular player is headed. Is the guy performing over his head in the first couple months? Well, then, you don't want to jump the gun and overrate them. Same idea with underrating a reliable player who is off to a slow start.
But now, starting from scratch at the beginning of a season, things change a bit. Here's the general criteria for this list:
1. 45% of the weight will be placed upon 2017 production.
2. 45% of the weight will be placed upon projecting the player's 2018 production, taking history into account, as well as the player's health and team situation.
3. 10% of the weight will be placed upon 2016 production.
Almost ready to get started, but one VERY important note:
Last season, the Major League RECORD for home runs was broken. Thirty teams and hundreds of players combined to knock 6,105 balls out of the park. As a frame of reference, the previous record -- set in 2000, during The Steroid Era -- was 5,693. Four hundred twelve MORE home runs hit than the most explosive season of The Steroid Era.
Suspicious, anyone? Whether it's juiced bats, balls, players or friendly parks, something is pushing home run totals through the roof. In 2016, there were 5,693 dingers, good for third in the history of the game. Do we want to give "launch angle" all of the credit for this home run revolution? Feel free to laugh that one off, but at the end of the day, we have to bump up the value of quality pitchers. With balls flying out of the park at a record pace, good, consistent pitching will be harder to find than ever.
That means, when in doubt, I'm leaning in favor of the man on the mound. All right, let's get to work...
250. Shohei Ohtani, SP and OF, Angels: Offensively, the early reviews of Ohtani have been scathing and merciless, but we're talking about a raw, 23-year old kid who will obviously need time to adjust to curveballs and sliders at the major league level. No one expects offensive production out of the gate; but on the mound, his strikeout-to-walk ratio has been excellent, and his pure stuff is pretty good. I mean, we're talking about number 250 here, not the top 100; this is a mega-priced, two-way player who deserves a back-end spot on spec alone.
249. Ozzie Albies, 2B, Braves: Debuted in the bigs as a 20-year old baby, but played like a grown man hitting .286 with 6 HRS, 28 RBI and 8 SBs in just 217 ABs. Obviously he's young and green, but Albies is expected to be a high-upside fantasy play at his position this season. He'll get every opportunity to shine on an Atlanta club that remains in rebuilding mode.
248. Gerardo Parra, OF, Rockies: A solid lefty bat whose decent numbers jumped to "quite strong" (Meet the Parents, anyone?) upon his career transition to Coors Field. His .309 BA was tied for 9th in the NL, slightly ahead of big names like Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rendon, Paul Goldschmidt and Kris Bryant. There isn't much else to Parra's game, though.
247. Yasmany Tomas, OF and 3B, Diamondbacks: Injury derailed his 2017 campaign and there are unrelenting concerns about his defensive ineptitude, but this big boy bashed 31 homers in '16. Tomas has a pretty swing, ton of pop and a second chance due to the unfortunate injury to Steven Souza. I have a feeling he's going to take advantage of this window of opportunity. Yasmany is a cocky hitter and he has the thunder to back it up.
246. Lonnie Chisenhall, OF and 3B, Indians: Just a professional hitter who can never seem to stay completely healthy. Lonnie is one of only a couple dozen who hit at least .280 in 3 of the past 4 seasons. In today's era of flamethrower after flamethrower, handled optimally by managers who are better prepared than ever, respectable batting averages are becoming increasingly more rare. Lonnie is comfortable hitting at the big-league level, and he's always been willing to play whatever position the organization thrusts him into.
245. Neil Walker, 2B, Yankees: Another sneaky and savvy pick-up by mastermind GM Brian Cashman. Walker was expected to do some heavy lifting for weak Mets lineups the past couple seasons, but now he's an afterthought behind studs like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Didi Gregorius. No one's going to be particularly worried about pitching to Walker at the bottom of this order, and he should be able to capitalize as a seasoned switch hitter reaping the benefits of hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. He's already a mellow player; so he should be especially comfortable in this low-profile, last-minute signing situation. Stanton and Aaron Boone will be the ones feeling the pressure in the Bronx.
244. Max Kepler, OF, Twins: Minnesota has built itself a nice, fun, lovable little team over the course of the past few years. Along with Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and another youngster you'll be seeing in a future installment of this list, Kepler is at the heart of every Twins fan's renewed optimism. He's more of an empty power hitter than I'd like him to be -- meaning he doesn't hit for average and most of his RBI come via the longball -- but his BA jumped 8 points from one season to the next. Minnesota is one of the toughest places to hit homers, but Kepler's raw power led him to 17 HRs in just 396 ABs ('16) and 19 HRs in 511 ABs last year. I'd say he's heading towards 25 HRs and 80 RBI this season, and in another, friendlier park that could be 30 and 90.
243. Manuel Margot, OF, Padres: Here's a nice up-and-coming ballplayer who finished 6th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Margot is a fun kid to watch; hits the ball hard, blazes around the bases and impacts the game in just about every way possible. It's been a long struggle for San Diego and its fans, but things are finally looking up a bit with Margot, Wil Myers and new franchise cornerstone, Eric Hosmer. I like Margot's flair and natural ability. I could definitely see him moving up next time.
242. Brandon Drury, 3B/2B, Yankees: See the first sentence of the Walker paragraph. Brandon is only 25 years old, and over the past two seasons he averaged roughly .275 with 15 HRs, 60 RBI and 35 doubles. That was particularly strong production out of the second base spot, but he'll be asked to man the hot corner this year. Either way, Drury is a young player who has already shown flashes of very useful production, and like Walker, he'll be operating as an afterthought to opposing pitchers. This was another low-risk, high-upside acquisition by Cashman.
241. Alex Reyes, P, Cardinals: This kid has top-five stuff in the world. In his 2016 introduction to the bigs, he went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 52 Ks in 46 IP. His average fastball was 96.5 MPH. He's coming off a major injury so the Cards will be watching his pitches and innings, but in a couple seasons we could be talking about a top-50 player here.
240. Kole Calhoun, OF, Angels: A solid, spunky all-around player who should benefit from the additions of Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler, not to mention Justin Upton for an entire season. This Angels lineup has boasted Mike Trout for a number of years now, but they finally have the lineup protection that could push them into a legitimate playoff threat.
Players 239 down to 230, coming VERY soon...
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