Tuesday, April 10, 2018

MLB Top 250 Players, Part IV: Into My Top 200 We Go...

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Before we burst through the door of my top 200, here's a little recap to this point:

1. Part I was headlined by exciting youngsters Shohei Ohtani, Ozzie Albies and Manuel Margot.
2. Part II featured more accomplished players like Jose Bautista, Dellin Betances and Brandon Belt.
3. Part III was led by rising studs Kyle Schwarber, Byron Buxton, Matt Olson and Mitch Haniger.

And here's an important reminder about my criteria for this list:

1. 45% of the weight will be placed upon 2017 production.

2. 45% of the weight will be placed upon projecting the player's 2018 production, taking history into account, as well as the player's health and team situation.

3. 10% of the weight will be placed upon 2016 production.

Also, with homers at an all-time high, I'm leaning in favor of quality pitchers, where applicable. All right, with housekeeping out of the way, let's rush right back into the action...

200. Ryon Healy, 1B, Mariners: Ya just never know with Billy Beane, ya know? A few years ago Healy was one of the most talked about players in Oakland's system. In his introduction to the bigs, he crushed 13 homers in just 269 ABs, while hitting over .300. He was expected to be a franchise cornerstone going forward and then boom, Beane trades him to the division-rival Mariners for cheap prospects. Regardless, following up that strong intro, Healy hammered 25 homers in '17, his first full season at the major-league level. The 26-year old joins a stronger lineup in Seattle, where he will reap the benefits of protection and production by Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger. Wow, the Mariners' lineup is actually quite impressive.

199. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Indians: Back to back ex-A's. Alonso has always been referred to as a "pure bat," but his numbers never supported that until last season. There are two major reasons why I like Alonso in this spot: (1) Coming off the best year of his life, he joins a winning culture and upbeat clubhouse with the division-champion Indians and (2) how can I put this delicately...the extreme nature of his improvement is, well, interesting. Prior to '17, his career high in homers was 9. Never even touched double digits. Last year Alonso exploded for 28 bombs. Let's see if that rapid acceleration continues in the company of Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez.

198. Dan Straily, SP, Marlins: Has developed into a very solid and dependable big-league starter. 191 innings and 181, back to back, while averaging a 4.00 ERA and roughly 165 Ks per season. Gives you innings -- good innings -- and toes the rubber in one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the game.

197. Evan Gattis, Utility, Astros

196. Archie Bradley, RP, Diamondbacks: Archie couldn't quite cut it as a starter (a consistent ERA above 5.00), so he joined the ranks of Andrew Miller, Wade Davis, Zach Britton and Tommy Hunter, as a failed starter turned lights-out reliever. Archie was one of the top five relievers in baseball last season, flashing a sparkling 1.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. I assumed he would be the Diamondbacks closer this year, but the job was ultimately given to Brad Boxberger, a former closer for the Rays. That means Bradley joins Miller as one of the top setup men in the game.

195. Jimmy Nelson, SP, Brewers: My great friend, Action Network's Matt Zylbert, had always championed Nelson as a possible breakout candidate. After going 8-16 with a 4.62 ERA in '16, Zylbert remained confident that Jimmy was on his way to glory. And, lo and behold, Nelson rewarded his faith with a career-best 3.49 ERA and 199 Ks in 175 IP last season. He was a legit ace for the Brew Crew; unfortunately, a freak injury while running the bases is costing him an inordinate amount of playing time. Nelson is not due back until around the all-star break. Right now, there's simply no way of knowing whether or not he'll return to last year's fine form.

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194. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies: It took awhile for "Cargo" to get a job this spring, but he eventually ended up back with the Rocks. This sweet-swinging outfielder was one of the elite players in the world for awhile, but last season indicated that a decline is under way. We've seen veterans rebound after down years in the past, but if he doesn't, we could see aforementioned youngers like Jameson Taillon, Kyle Schwarber, Gregory Polanco, Byron Buxton and/or Paul DeJong coming for his spot in my top 200.

193. Scott Schebler, OF, Reds: Here's an emerging power hitter who will most certainly continue to benefit from the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. In his first extended look at the big-league level, Schebler hit 9 HRs in just 257 ABs, and he followed that up with 30 bombs in 141 games in '17. Scott is being asked to being asked to replace some of the power that intermittently made its way over to Flushing, in the form of Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier.

192. Dexter Fowler, OF, Cardinals: Seems to impact winning wherever he goes, particularly throughout the second half of his big-league career. Veteran switch-hitter with a good glove and big-game experience.

191. Eugenio Suarez, 3B/SS, Reds

190. David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks

189. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves: As I mentioned in my NL East preseason predictions, Teheran's flip-floppy results have caused headaches for Atlanta's fans and management. How's this for a roller coaster ride: an all-star in '14 with a 2.89 ERA, then 4.04, then 3.21 (an all-star again), then 4.49. Which guy is he, the all-star or the mediocre pitcher with mediocre stuff? This season will likely provide some clarity as to where Julio's enigmatic career is headed.

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188. Nomar Mazara, OF, Rangers: Started off like a man on fire last season, which naturally led to my bragging about his exceptional production on my fantasy team. Well, that didn't last very long. Nomar went ICE cold for a few months, ultimately sinking down to a .253 BA. However, he did drive in over 100 runs, and he's a 6'4", 215-lb, good-looking ballplayer who is still just 22 years old. The Rangers have an exciting talent here.

187. Sean Doolittle, CP, Nationals: A live lefty arm who just needs to stay healthy. He's been one of the better left-handed closers.

186. Corey Dickerson, OF, Pirates: An affordable, savvy pick-up for Clint Hurdle and his Pirates. Corey is a solid professional hitter coming off a very nice year. He has a chip on his shoulder, too -- he wasn't happy with the way the Rays organization treated him after a productive season in Tampa.

185. Albert Pujols, 1B/DH, Angels: The engine of "The Machine" is still chuggin'. 31 homers and 119 RBI in '16, followed by 23 and 101 last season. He's arguably the slowest baserunner in the MLB, and his defense is a liability at this stage in his storied career, but Albert can still rake. This guy was born to hit, and you can never sleep on him, no matter how old he is (38).

184. Charlie Morton, SP, Astros: Track the trajectory of this veteran's career: (1) At 24 years old, he went 4-8 with a 6.15 ERA and just 48 Ks in 74 IP. According to Fangraphs, his average fastball was 92.4 MPH. (2) In 2010, he was in the minor leagues. He started 14 games for Indianapolis, the AAA affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates. (3) In 2017, at 33 years old, he went 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 163 Ks in 146 IP for the World Series champion Astros. His average fastball was 95 MPH. Need I say more?

183. Jason Kipnis, 2B/OF, Indians

182. Kelvin Herrera, CP, Royals

181. Odubel Herrera, OF, Phillies: What are the odds of two Herreras, back to back? This was unintentional.

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180. Nick Castellanos, OF/3B, Tigers: Detroit is in rebuilding mode, and its stalwart leaders -- Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez -- are creeping toward the end of their outstanding careers. That makes Castellanos, in his prime at 26, an awfully important organizational piece going forward. His 10 triples were the most in the AL last season, and his 26 homers and 101 RBI were both career highs. For a kid with pop, he's much faster on the bases than you'd expect. He may very well be the face of this retooling franchise.

Creeping closer to my top 150, next time around...

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