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| Photo Credit: Forbes |
A quick recap:
Frascella's AL East Predictions
(** Editor's note: These projections will be based on a 162-game schedule, in order to be consistent with all of my AL predictions. At this point, if there's any MLB season at all, it'll be less than 162 games.)
5. Miami Marlins
2019 Record: 57-105
2020 Vegas Over/Under (via Odds Shark): 64.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 66-96
Betting Influence: You know, that over/under is rather interesting - the Nationals won the World Series; the Braves continue to win the division; the Phillies keep investing in big names and the Mets appear to be a team on the rise - so how did Miami's win total jump from 57 to 64.5? Logically, you would expect it to remain about the same, or perhaps even dip. So, yeah...I'm buying in. This looks like a spot for a contrarian play. That 64.5 number has my attention, and I'm going with the over. Let's see how we get there...
Position Players: Jonathan Villar, Corey Dickerson and Jesus Aguilar are the key additions, here. Villar has been an enigmatic player throughout his career - his results tend to fluctuate, sometimes dramatically - but when he's on, he's actually a fantasy monster. Did you know that (in most fantasy formats) he finished 2nd among second basemen last season - ahead of DJ LeMahieu, Ozzie Albies, Whit Merrifield, Eduardo Escobar, Gleyber Torres and Jose Altuve? Yeah, so, Villar can fill up the box score. He stole 40 bases and popped 24 dingers last year. Miami's bringing in the fences, and that should help Villar as well as Aguilar, who had his best career results at Miller Park (a hitters' park). Miami's old dimensions would have hurt Aguilar's projections, but the new ones should keep him right on pace. Like C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop and Maikel Franco in my past posts, Aguilar's new role and situation should benefit him. Guys who have shown flashes of greatness need to be left alone in order to perform at their max potential. They wanna see their names on the lineup card (almost) every day. As for Dickerson, he's a pro's pro. He won't wow you with power, but he has a professional approach and he tends to hover around .300. You're starting off the game well with Dickerson leading off and Villar in the 2-hole. The key returning bats are catcher Jorge Alfaro and flex players Brian Anderson and Garrett Cooper. This lineup has improved from last year.
Pitchers: If anything at all, the Marlins were hanging their hat on their young pitching last year. (Still not sure why they would trade Zac Gallen and Nick Anderson, though.) That said, this season they bring back Sandy Alcantara and Caleb Smith atop their rotation. Both have flashed many positives and will be looking to build upon their promising foundations. Pablo Lopez and Jordan Yamamoto are back, as well. Lopez has some craft, and Yamamoto performed well enough as a rookie. In the bullpen, Brandon Kintzler is a major key for this club. He's not gonna knock your socks off with his pure stuff, but he's been very effective throughout his career in back-end bullpen roles. I expect him to run away with the closer's job, here. Ryne Stanek has some pretty nasty stuff in this pen.
4. Philadelphia Phillies
2019 Record: 81-81
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 85.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 83-79
General Thoughts: I'm not buying in to what their front office is doing. This is a good team, but that's all. They aren't great, and I don't believe Zack Wheeler is a cure-all. Let's get into the details...
Position Players: I love Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto for fantasy this season, but not really anyone else. Scott Kingery has felt a bit over-hyped from the beginning; it kind of feels like Didi Gregorius is stumbling into the back-end of his career; the same could be said for Andrew McCutchen and maybe Jean Segura, too. Doesn't this just seem like a team of "nice" players? Is that what it takes to get the job done? Rhys Hoskins should be decent enough as a third fiddle, but I'm not blown away on the whole, here. They seem a step behind their divisional competition.
Pitchers: Back to Wheeler...I am NOT a biased Met fan. I was never a huge Wheeler guy. He's big, strong and has a beautiful arm, but he doesn't have a feel for the position. He doesn't have craft. When he gets off to a bad start in a start, he folds. He doesn't have the grit or guile to push through; two things his former teammate, Jacob deGrom, has always had. Wheeler should be fine - good start, bad start - but not worth Philly's sizable financial investment. Aaron Nola has developed into a solid ace, but Jake Arrieta is fading toward retirement and Zach Eflin is just okay. Vince Velasquez has great stuff but can never seem to put it all together. Having Wheeler and Velasquez in the same rotation will be awfully frustrating for Philly fans - so much untapped potential. Wheeler has the potential to be great, but he won't get there. Velasquez has the potential to be good, but he never gets there. In the bullpen, David Robertson has been another bust investment. Hector Neris leads the way as their closer with a vicious put-away splitter.
3. New York Mets
2019 Record: 86-76
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 86.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 84-78
General Thoughts: Maybe this coronavirus jail cell has me in a negative mood, but something doesn't feel right, here. The Syndergaard news is an absolute killer. Also, does GM Brodie Van Wagenen actually know what he's doing? I'm big on management in the MLB - you saw my projections for the Rays and A's - and Brodie has been doing the opposite of all of the best-run clubs. He sells off top prospects for win-now players, but the Mets are in a division with two of the absolute best teams in the National League. What about the long-term? What about positioning yourself for future sustainability and greatness? So yeah, Brodie can't compete with top execs around the league and the "Thor" injury pushes crappy Michael Wacha into what is now a thin rotation. The pieces aren't falling into place favorably.
Position Players: I love an offense led by Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil - these are old-school guys. I love these guys. It's so exciting to me that the Mets are led by a core of deGrom, Alonso, McNeil and Amed Rosario - but Syndergaard and Michael Conforto are also key parts of that core. Syndergaard's out for the season and Conforto already has an oblique strain to worry about. Those injuries linger. They come and go and they ruin your opportunities to create rhythm and consistency. So the Mets' core of 6 is looking more like 4.5. But again, I love Alonso and McNeil. They play hard. They play with intense passion. They deliver in the big moments. So that's great - but there are a lot of question marks in this outfield...which Brandon Nimmo is the real one? The one from two seasons ago (when he was probably the Mets' best all-around player), or the one from last season who was a rally-killer with a ton of holes in his swing? Time will tell, I suppose. Do I even have to get into Yoenis Cespedes? Who knows how many games that guy will play, if any at all. J.D. Davis really appears to have come into his own, and he'll be needed to support Alonso and McNeil. Rosario has improved his offensive numbers every season, but I'd like to see the Mets' brass have a little more faith in him in terms of batting order slot. Wilson Ramos hits well with runners in scoring position. Robinson Cano should probably retire soon. So...you see what I mean. This offense is all over the place. You have some excellent core pieces and some major question marks. The batting order construction will matter an awful lot. You can't have Cano in the middle of the order killing rallies left and right. Hopefully, in the end, Rosario will get more respect as a burgeoning hitter than Nimmo. Who knows if Jed Lowrie will ever play again? (Cespedes 2.0.) And yet, in spite of my flip-flopping back-and-forth, this offense should be the Mets' strength. Their rotation takes a massive hit without Thor and their bullpen was the glaring weakness of the club last year. I probably should have written a separate post about the Mets...but who is paying me for this?
Pitchers: Yeah, enough about Thor. We know what we get from deGrom - he's already pretty much a legend. That leaves...Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Rick Porcello and the aforementioned Wacha. Stroman, obviously, will have to step up in a major way. I like him much better as a steady No. 3 than a No. 2 with pressure on him. He'll be fine, but will probably perform like a 3 as opposed to the 2 the Mets will require. Porcello could be fine if he has his command, but he's more like a 4 or 5 than a 3. The Mets will probably need him to be a 3. Matz still has potential, but he's like a weaker version of Wheeler - has the tools to put it all together, but simply doesn't. Wacha is finished. Brodie might wanna bring Matt Harvey back to compete with Wacha for that final slot. Or, Seth Lugo and/or Robert Gsellman are flex options who have worked in both capacities. In the bullpen, it was so obvious Edwin Diaz was tipping his pitches last season. I immediately think of embarrassing performances vs. the Dodgers and Nationals, where they were all over every single pitch he threw. The cat was out of the bag, but opposing teams kept the inside knowledge tight to the vest. All of the outlets are expecting Diaz to bounce back, but I'll see it when I believe it. I don't have much faith in him. Dellin Betances should be a huge acquisition if he can remain relatively healthy. Lefty Justin Wilson did a real solid job last season.
2. Washington Nationals
2019 Record: 93-69
2020 Vegas Over/Under: 89.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 91-71
Position Players: One offseason you lose Bryce Harper...the next you lose Anthony Rendon? How much can this offense truly withstand? I think Juan Soto is one of the best hitters to come around in a long, long time - but how much can he accomplish with just Trea Turner by his side? Eric Thames is a hit-or-miss power specialist vs. right-handed pitching. Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera and Howie Kendrick are all inching toward the end of their veteran careers. Adam Eaton is solid but unspectacular. Victor Robles has potential - but will he reach it this quickly? It's obvious...this club is gonna have to win with pitching.
Pitchers: And pitching they have...pitching for days. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are both still top-10 SPs for me. After battling injuries and surgeries for quite some time, Strasburg was an absolute hero in the postseason for the Nats. I'm very happy for him - guy makes a ton of money, but he's also a battler who has shown an awful lot of balls. That was a heroic playoff performance. Patrick Corbin is probably the best No. 3 starter in baseball - I dunno how he does it (lot of times his fastball is floating in there around 89/90 MPH), but he does. He just gets it done. His slider has become a real wipeout offering in recent years, and he rides that gravy train to the promised land. His strikeout-per-inning rates have been rocketing through the roof in comparison to the early stages of his career. You're just not gonna find a better No. 3 than him, and of course it's nice to have the lefty complementing the two outstanding righties at the top. Anibal Sanchez is slotted appropriately as a No. 4. I think Sean Doolittle's arm is shot at the back of this bullpen, but Daniel Hudson and Will Harris will be there to help out. These starters go deep, anyway.
1. Atlanta Braves
2019 Record: 97-65
2020 Over/Under: 90.5
Frascella's 2020 Projection: 95-67
Betting Influence: Hmm...that 90.5 number has my attention. Nationals lose Rendon. Vegas thinks the Marlins and Phillies are gonna get that much better? The Braves have been a steady force atop this division in recent years, and they seem to have the right mix of youth, prime and vets. How important is this veteran swap from Josh Donaldson to Marcell Ozuna?
Position Players: Who can argue with the core of Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies? Freeman might be the best pure hitter in the game, and Acuna is going No. 1 overall in fantasy leagues, even above the great Mike Trout. Albies has been one of the best overall second basemen in the league since the first day he stepped onto a major league diamond. Dansby Swanson continues to improve at the dish. Veteran Nick Markakis delivers with runners in scoring position. Travis d'Arnaud, a new acquisition, is probably coming off the best and most impactful season of his career. Could the issue really be Ozuna? Sure, they play different positions, but we're basically talking about a swap of proven hitters in the middle of this order. Donaldson did perform better than I anticipated. He seemed to have strong camaraderie with the youngsters on this roster. Maybe he will be missed. Maybe Ozuna's "sleepy" style won't be good enough. I don't know. At least in raw ability, Ozuna is a rock-solid righty bat.
Pitchers: Mike Soroka showed me an awful lot last season. For years I had been hearing his name on the prospect circuit, but this kid doesn't pitch like a prospect. He is very poised, and very polished. He has a veteran presence and skillful command of four different, effective pitches. He should be a good one for a long time, provided he maintains his command and Spartan demeanor. Max Fried also impressed in his first extended look last season. He's a lefty with a big, slow bender reminiscent of Barry Zito with a little more zip. Mike Foltynewicz can be an ace-type when he's on. He needs to stay healthy and put that electric rising fastball to work. If Atlanta gets the best version of "Folty", that's a nasty little 1-2 with Soroka. Cole Hamels should be on the shelf for a little while (shoulder), but he showed he had plenty left in the tank last year. Maybe the Braves can squeeze one last quality season out of "The King" Felix Hernandez? Seems like a longshot, but crazier things have happened. In the pen, don't sleep on Mark Melancon. The warm weather helps him. He started to look like himself again toward the end of last season. I think fantasy pundits are underestimating him. He's joined by Will Smith, Chris Martin, Shane Greene, Luke Jackson and Darren O'Day in what looks like the best bullpen in this division - by far.
ALL of Frascella's Win Projections to Date (using the 162-game model)
2. Twins: 100
3. Braves 97
4. Yankees: 97
5. Rays: 95
6. Nationals: 93
7. A's: 93
8. Angels: 87
9. White Sox: 87
10. Mets: 84
11. Indians: 84
12. Phillies: 83
13. Red Sox: 80
14. Rangers: 77
15. Blue Jays: 74
16. Marlins: 66
17. Royals: 63
18. Mariners: 54
19. Orioles: 52
20. Tigers: 50
