John Frascella's Fantasy TE Rankings: Can Gronk Be Trusted Atop the List?

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Before we get into the final installment of my 2018 NFL fantasy rankings, I'd like to sincerely thank you all for the views, likes, re-tweets and comments on Volumes I through III. Your feedback is more appreciated than you know.

A quick, little happy recap:

1. Russell Wilson scrambled for the No. 1 spot in my Quarterback Rankings, but I expect him to be chased by familiar faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, as well as rising stars Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz (if healthy).

2. It was Todd Gurley's world in my Running Back Rankings, but we'll keep an eye on Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson near the top of the list. Like Garoppolo at the QB position, youngster Saquon Barkley is riding that preseason Hype Train. Full-steam ahead!

3. The usual suspects dominated Tier 1 of my Wide Receiver Rankings, leaving question marks like Amari Cooper, Mike Evans and Doug Baldwin behind in the dust. All right, enough of that...

PART I: GRONK, KELCE...THEN EVERYBODY ELSE

Rob Gronkowski is probably the greatest tight end to ever play the game of football. 

Six-foot-six, 270 pounds with unparalleled power and surprising speed -- he's the textbook definition of a monster. He's had incredible chemistry with Brady since day 1, and you can exploit his mismatches in a variety of different ways. One could make fair arguments for Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe and Jason Witten because of their longevity, durability and reliability, but in terms of talent and pure domination, I think Gronk is the best of the best. 

But that doesn't mean he's the No. 1 fantasy tight end heading into this season. 

Gronk has only appeared in 22 of his last 32 possible regular season games, and he left a number of contests early. His long-term health must be questioned, along with his desire to play and deteriorating relationship with Bill Belichick. Still...with Julian Edelman suspended and a thin receiving corps, I'm having difficulty knocking Gronk off his tight end throne. It's not gonna happen; but Travis Kelce still needs to be taken very seriously.

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Kelce has played in 63 of his last 64 possible regular season games, and in most PPR formats he outscored Gronk last season. However, he doesn't have Gronk's upside, and we can't be sure about his chemistry with new QB Pat Mahomes. We know Brady knows where and when to find Gronk. Kelce is the safe play as the No. 2 overall fantasy tight end.

TIER 1 RANKINGS:

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Travis Kelce

Then there's Zach Ertz. In a vacuum, right now, he might be the best player at his position. Gronk constantly battles injuries and isn't as fast as he once was, and Kelce is fundamentally-sound across the board, but lacks Ertz's overall athleticism and pure, unadulterated talent.

The problem is that the Eagles' quarterback situation is falling apart real quick. Carson Wentz simply does not look ready to play, and Nick Foles went down in Philly's last preseason game. With that kind of uncertainty, we can't group Ertz with Gronk and Kelce. Ertz, by default, becomes the leader of Tier 2.

In Tier 2, he's joined by Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham. To me, like Tier 1, it's a small group. Kelvin Benjamin's out of the way in Carolina and the Panthers' receiving corps is thin, so Olsen will get all he can eat. Pre-retirement, I'm sure he wants to go out with a bang, too.

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Tight ends never seem to work out with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, but Graham is a different animal. They already look synced up in the preseason. Graham has always been one of the most physically gifted players at the tight end position, and Jordy Nelson is out of the picture. Davante Adams and Graham should be awfully busy this season.

TIER 2 RANKINGS:

3. Zach Ertz
4. Greg Olsen
5. Jimmy Graham

PART II: TAKE YOUR PICK - RELIABLE VETS OR KIDS WITH UPSIDE?

Jordan Reed's the best player left, but again he's hobbling into the season. Alex Smith had a great connection with Kelce, so there's reason to believe he'll enjoy throwing to Reed at the same position. Reed is athletic and makes himself very available in the redzone, but he just can't seem to stay on the field. Buyer beware - it's your decision to gamble. 

Kyle Rudolph and Delanie Walker are dependable vets. Neither guy has super-high upside, but we're talking about high floors, here. Kirk Cousins worked well with Reed in Washington, so he should have a redzone eye for Rudolph. 

The youngsters are Evan Engram and David Njoku; the latter was looking better before Dez Bryant signed with the Browns. Now Njoku has to share looks with Dez, Jarvis Landry and buzz burner Antonio Callaway. Engram was pleasantly productive last year, so he's a much safer play than Njoku, though both are physically gifted. 

TIER 3 RANKINGS:

6. Kyle Rudolph

7. Jordan Reed

8. Evan Engram

9. Delanie Walker

With Cleveland getting more crowded, Njoku is better suited for Tier 4, where he will be joined by Trey Burton, George Kittle and Tyler Eifert. 

Burton is looking like one of Mitchell Trubisky's most trusted targets; Kittle, despite a separated shoulder, is expected to be ready for Week 1 and Eifert is a redzone vulture who can never stay healthy. Burton looks to have the highest upside here, as weak, young QBs like Trubisky tend to check-down and pepper short, underneath routes to tight ends and backs. 

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I'm keeping Burton in Tier 4, but I could definitely see him outperforming Delanie Walker. Eifert, generally speaking, is just too risky for me. 

TIER 4 RANKINGS:

10. Trey Burton

11. David Njoku

12. George Kittle

13. Tyler Eifert

The rest of the way out, it's pick your poison. Jon Gruden likes to make blockers out of his tight ends, but Jared Cook had nice chemistry with Derek Carr last season. 

Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron are going to split Andrew Luck's looks in Indy. 

Luke Willson could emerge a bit more in Detroit. Contending with Jimmy Graham was a difficult task in Seattle. 

Charles Clay, receiving passes from rookie Josh Allen or sophomore Nathan Peterman, could have a similar role to Burton. Again, young, un-confident QBs tend to fall back on safety valves. 

In the end, if you can squeeze out a top-10 guy, that's probably the best way to go with this group. It gets pretty thin, pretty quick. 

Thanks again for reading, and best of luck this fantasy season!

The Jets and Sam Darnold: Go Big or Go Home

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On ESPN Thursday Night Football, with buzz in the air and watchful eyes on the quarterback, rookie Sam Darnold drew the start for Todd Bowles' Jets. After an impressive opening performance in a 17-0 shutout of the Falcons, Bowles, offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates and (likely) GM Mike Maccagnan decided to get real aggressive, real quick. Darnold impressed enough to get the call over Teddy Bridgewater, on the same day the New York Daily News' Manish Mehta said that "it'd be an upset" if Darnold doesn't start Week 1 of the regular season.

Darnold responded with both positives and negatives.

The 21-year old, right-handed gunslinger connected on 8-of-11 passes for 62 yards, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. The rookie also took two sacks, as the Jets fell 15-13 to the better-prepared Redskins.

On the plus side, Darnold showcased some quick decision-making and on-time deliveries. Facially, he looks poised and centered, though his feet sometimes indicate the opposite. The youngster flashes some "happy feet" when he feels the pass rush getting too close for comfort. Still, for a 21-year old under center in an NFL game, he looks professional enough to keep his team in games.

On the negative end, that interception was an absolute disaster. On a critical 4th down play, Darnold lobbed a duck into heavy coverage. In his defense, Bates' playcall was particularly horrendous. He cut the field in half and rolled Darnold off the wrong shoulder, with no receivers out to the right. Terrible design, terrible action, terrible execution. I hope this isn't what we should come to expect from Mr. Bates.

But the biggest concerns are these:

1. Darnold never looked more than 10-15 yards down the field. It seemed he had no intention of ever attempting to stretch the defense. Wouldn't it be preferable to have a hot-shot rookie who takes his shots like Deshaun Watson last season? Darnold appears ready to protect his own ego.

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2. Do the Jets have enough offensive weapons to justify starting a rookie quarterback?

Well, we can look at the first concern in two ways: (1) Darnold was the one making ultra-conservative decisions or (2) Bowles and Bates were completely responsible for the obvious conservatism. Let's hope it was number two.

As far as the second concern goes, the answer is far more simple...no.

On the field, I happen to be a big Robby Anderson supporter. He can stretch you over the top, works hard on stop routes and makes difficult catches along the sideline. He's a complete receiver, but not a star receiver. Either way, he's the best option Darnold and Bates have.

After that it gets sketchy. Jermaine Kearse is coming off the best year of his veteran career, but so many of his connections with Josh McCown were in tight windows. Athletically, Kearse is nothing special, which means his quarterbacks need to be perfectly on time. That's asking an awful lot of a rookie. Kearse is a WR3 or 4, not a 2.

Quincy Enunwa needs to get out there and stay healthy. Same with Terrelle Pryor. That's a pair of question marks, at best.

Bilal Powell has lost his burst of a few years ago, and Isaiah Crowell is already banged up. Who in the hell is gonna help Darnold?

Personally, I think it's too risky. Darnold could get exposed and his confidence shattered.

But, if the Jets' braintrust is going to pull the trigger...they must go big or go home. You can't limit the kid to short, quick throws. Defenses will bunch up and squeeze toward the line of scrimmage, and Darnold will be nothing more than a sitting duck.

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If you're going to give the kid the call...you gotta cut him loose. Throw caution to the wind. Darnold will need to stretch the field to keep opposing defenses honest; so by default, you can't worry about interceptions and questionable decisions. In order to be (relatively) successful out of the gate, Darnold and the Jets will need short, intermediate and deep connections in the passing game.

I'd start Bridgewater and give the kid a year of seasoning, but that would be the smart thing to do.

But this is the Jets we're talking about, here...do you think they'll do the smart thing?

John Frascella's Fantasy WR Rankings: Can Cooper, Evans & Hilton Bounce Back?

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Before we get into the one-handed catches, diving grabs and jump balls, don't forget to check out my preceding fantasy football rankings:

1. Quarterbacks
2. Running Backs

Okay, no time to waste...

PART I: FOUR SUPERSTARS AND A BUNCH OF QUESTION MARKS

I don't think I need to get into Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Odell Beckham, Jr. -- do I?

Keep an eye on AB's minor quad injury throughout the preseason, and of course ODB's lingering ankle issue from last year. Even with minor injury concerns, we're talking about two of the top four fantasy receivers in the game. Generally speaking, these superstars need no introduction. 

After The Big Four it gets hairy. Where do we go from there?

The standard, safer plays are A.J. Green and Keenan Allen. I can't really knock either player, but we know Allen has a frustrating history of injuries. When he is out there with Philip Rivers, they have some of the best chemistry in the league. As for the Bengals, they don't have much else outside of A.J. Andy Dalton understandably peppers him with targets. Michael Thomas is a very safe play, as well. 

TIER 1 RANKINGS:

1. Antonio Brown

2. DeAndre Hopkins (absolutely love him with Deshaun Watson)

3. Julio Jones

4. Odell Beckham, Jr. 

I personally love Davante Adams this year. He's been extremely reliable for me the past couple seasons, and of course Jordy Nelson is in Oakland now. Davante is now Aaron Rodgers' undisputed No. 1 receiver, and he's already a monster in the redzone. He's already established excellent chemistry with A-Rod, and now his role will naturally expand. This is an enticing fantasy situation. 

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Tyreek Hill is arguably the most electric player in the NFL, but we'll have to wait and see on his chemistry with Pat Mahomes. I probably would have had him 5th or 6th with Alex Smith calling the signals. I tend to prefer comfortable situations between QB and WR. 

For example, people were high on Terrelle Pryor heading into last season, but he never meshed with Kirk Cousins in Washington. Eric Decker flopped in Tennessee and the same with Kenny Britt (Cleveland) and Kelvin Benjamin (Buffalo). We know Rivers and Allen have chemistry. Same with Dalton and Green; Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton. 

Speaking of Hilton, if Luck can stay on the field, he's always a potential top-tier performer. New HC Frank Reich did a wonderful job in Philadelphia, so I expect the Colts to be lightyears better from a coaching standpoint. Chuck Pagano was a motivator and nothing more. Hilton is only risky because of Luck; on his own, he's a very dangerous wideout. 

I'll be honest with you...I don't know what to think about Mike Evans. The conventional wisdom is that the Bucs are an absolute mess -- Dirk Koetter is extremely lucky to still have his job, Jameis Winston is a total disaster on-and-off the field and at this point, Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the weakest back-up QBs in the game. This is not exactly an ideal situation for a WR1. 

But we all know about Evans' pure talent. And he was SUCH a disappointment last year. He could bounce back purely on his own merits, but it's too risky a situation for my personal taste. Guess it depends on where he drops in your particular draft. 

TIER 2 RANKINGS (PPR):

5. Keenan Allen

6. Michael Thomas

7. A.J. Green

8. Jarvis Landry (going to get peppered with intermediate throws by Taylor and/or Mayfield)

9. T.Y. Hilton

10. Brandin Cooks

11. Davante Adams

12. Tyreek Hill

13. Adam Thielen

14. Mike Evans

15. Marvin Jones

16. Larry Fitzgerald

17. Emmanuel Sanders

18. Amari Cooper

19. Stefon Diggs

20. Alshon Jeffery

21. Doug Baldwin

Gotta watch Baldwin's knee; but obviously, if healthy, he is Russell Wilson's go-to guy. Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson are both gone. 

Diggs is a fantastic all-around receiver, but he has to split looks with Thielen. 

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Jones was a fantasy monster last season. I'm not sure everyone realized that. In one of my formats he finished 5th among WRs. He and Matthew Stafford have continually improved as a pass-catch duo.

TIER 2 RANKINGS (NON-PPR):

5. Keenan Allen

6. A.J. Green

7. Michael Thomas

8. T.Y. Hilton

9. Davante Adams

10. Marvin Jones

11. Tyreek Hill

12. Brandin Cooks

13. Mike Evans

14. Amari Cooper

15. Jarvis Landry

16. Stefon Diggs

17. Larry Fitzgerald

18. Alshon Jeffery

19. Adam Thielen

20. Emmanuel Sanders

21. Doug Baldwin

Cooks is in the tricky situation I mentioned earlier -- team change...does he get better, worse, or stay the same? It's even trickier when you go from Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels to Sean McVay. These are all elite football minds. The Rams probably NEED Cooks more than the Pats did. I expect him to be a bit more productive than he was in New England. 

PART II: ONE HEADACHE AFTER ANOTHER

This is when you start smashing your head against the wall. Talk about a brain-busting section of the draft. So many of these rankings are too close to call...

Demaryius Thomas has never delivered when I needed him in the past, but Case Keenum is a major upgrade over the tumbling triumvirate of Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. Keenum, Thomas and Sanders should form a productive fantasy trio.

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Chris Hogan looks awfully good early in the season. Julian Edelman is suspended the first four games, and Jordan Matthews has already been released. Furthermore, Britt tweaked his hamstring, and Phillip Dorsett has never done much of anything. Hogan's a pretty safe play in the middle tiers.

Allen Robinson could bounce back, but injuries and incoming passes from Mitchell Trubisky are both concerns. There's upside here, though. Chicago should be fully committed to him.

Devin Funchess really clicked with Cam Newton after Benjamin was traded. Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey will garner plenty of targets, but Funchess is the undisputed WR1 in Carolina. These four players will account for virtually all of the Panthers' offensive production.

As far as vets go, we mostly know what to expect from Golden Tate, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, DeSean Jackson and Randall Cobb.

TIER 3 RANKINGS (ALL FORMATS):

22. Allen Robinson
23. Devin Funchess
24. Chris Hogan
25. Golden Tate
26. Demaryius Thomas
27. Michael Crabtree
28. Kelvin Benjamin
29. JuJu Smith-Schuster
30. DeVante Parker
31. Sammy Watkins
32. Pierre Garcon
33. Robert Woods
34. Jordy Nelson
35. Marquise Goodwin
36. Jamison Crowder
37. Robby Anderson (look out for a possible suspension, at some point)

It's a deep and interesting tier, is it not?

Jalen Ramsey says that Joe Flacco "sucks," but Crabtree will see plenty of targets, regardless. On the whole, Crabtree is a frustrating receiver because of drops and oft-questioned toughness, but he makes himself available in the redzone. He's not really much better or worse than anyone else in this tier. Worth a WR3/4 look, depending on how deep your league is.

Speaking of frustrating...yeah...DeVante Parker. Hype Train every single year. That train never seems to pick up much steam; but Landry is gone, so things should be a bit different. I usually stay away, but he'll have to be in the mix with guys like Crabtree, Watkins, Garcon and Nelson in uncertain territory.

Goodwin really clicked with Jimmy Garoppolo. Definitely keep that in mind.

Woods has always been significantly underrated as a pure receiver, but he'll have to share Goff's looks with Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Gurley out of the backfield.

PART III: THE BEST OF THE REST

Not really sure what happened to Allen Hurns toward the end of his tenure in Jacksonville. Are Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook really that good? "The Allens" -- Hurns and Robinson -- formed one of top receiving duos for a short while. That seemingly dissipated out of thin air. Now Hurns makes for an interesting play with renewed optimism in Dallas. Dez Bryant is out of the picture, and Dak Prescott needs help. Hurns is a textbook flyer.

Marcus Mariota doesn't get much help in Tennessee. From a chemistry standpoint, Rishard Matthews is probably his go-to-guy, but he's been out of practice for "undisclosed reasons." Proceed at your own risk.

We'll see if Pat Shurmur and Saquon Barkley will open things up for Sterling Shepard. He's a good little player.

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Corey Davis, Will Fuller and Josh Doctson are still young question marks. Davis seems to have a new injury every week; Fuller needs Deshaun Watson at 100% for all 16 games, and Doctson is in a mix with Richardson, Crowder and Jordan Reed. Don't forget about Chris Thompson out of the backfield, too.

Okay, let's wrap it up...

TIER 4 (ALL FORMATS):

38. Allen Hurns
39. Randall Cobb (especially with Jordy gone)
40. Sterling Shepard
41. Julian Edelman (suspended first four)
42. Keelan Cole (best of the Jags, in my opinion)
43. Danny Amendola (particularly in full-point PPR)
44. Corey Davis
45. Rishard Matthews
46. Nelson Agholor
47. Cooper Kupp (see Amendola's note)
48. Will Fuller
49. Josh Doctson
50. DeSean Jackson

Again, best of luck to all!! And during your prep, don't forget to check out my Quarterback and Running Back rankings, as well. 

How the Analytics Movement Has Stripped the MLB of Its Best Managers

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Dusty Baker has 1,863 wins as a major league manager.

One thousand, eight hundred and sixty-three.

He was 125 games over .500 with the San Francisco Giants. Eight-hundred forty wins with one club. In just two seasons, he was 60 games over .500 with the Washington Nationals. The Cincinnati Reds have been a laughingstock in recent years; when Dusty was there, they were 46 games over .500.

I'm well aware of the knocks on Dusty's managerial style -- stuck in his old-school ways, doesn't make many adjustments, struggles with match-up based decisions in the playoffs -- but the guy can flat out manage a clubhouse. His teams win. His players like him; and maybe that's just as important as making informed strategy decisions?

The Nationals fell into the honey pot of analytics. Don't get me wrong -- I'm not one of those old-school guys who dismisses useful strategies rooted in mathematics and analytics, but I do believe in the power of a manager who simply knows how to do his job. It takes a special person to be a successful big league skipper; especially over the span of decades. Things change. The game evolves. When Dusty's in the dugout, he keeps on winning.

The Nationals heard the buzz around the league. We want young managers. We want collaborators. In other words...we want an unpolished guy who will do whatever the front office tells him to do. We want a patsy. We want our analytics guys in the front office to dictate strategy on the field.

How's that workin' out for ya, Washington?

At just 60-58 this season, the Nats trail both the Braves and Phillies in the NL East. Last year the Nats finished 25 games ahead of the Braves and 31 ahead of the Phils. Dusty Baker ran the ship. The ship sailed smoothly, and the Nationals crushed their competition.

Dave Martinez is new to the job. His clubhouse has been a disaster. It feels like his players don't trust him. They don't think he knows what he's doing. Is he a deer in headlights, or is GM Mike Rizzo sinking the ship?

Who knows? It doesn't really matter. Dusty's gone and things have gotten worse. Those are the facts.

The same thing happened in the Bronx, with the head-scratching transition from Joe Girardi to Aaron Boone.

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Girardi had consistently been one of the best managers in the MLB; I'm not talking about top half, I'm talking top five. Girardi was an ELITE manager -- squeezing out one tight win after another and maximizing win totals for some of Brian Cashman's weaker rosters. In years projected to be "down" for the Yanks, Girardi always exceeded expectations. He pays attention to detail. He has a natural feel for match-up based decisions. Some managers detract; Girardi maximizes.

Now, on the whole, the current Yanks have had a nice season. But the Red Sox are running away with the AL East. They are the stars of the division, and I think after last year's fantastic postseason run, people were expecting more from these Yankees.

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I mean, think about some of the ridiculous mistakes we have seen this season. Boone forgot to warm guys up before making a pitching change the following inning. Gabe Kapler did one better -- he actually walked onto the field to make a change with no one up in the pen! The freakin' Mets batted out of order because of Mickey Callaway!!

These blunders are lower than low. These young managers aren't even doing the bare minimum. They are screwing up moves that are second nature to vets like Baker and Girardi.

You can't just say you want to be a major league manager because you're a team guy. Because you're a collaborator. That's not the job. You need to have full command of the technical nuances. You need to master the mechanics.

What happened to just caring about WINS? Dusty Baker wins. Joe Girardi wins.

These analytic patsies can't even fill out a lineup card. Give me a break.

Revisiting Oscar Nominees: McDormand and Ronan are Powerhouse Leading Ladies in "Three Billboards" and "Lady Bird"

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I'm sorry -- 2018 was a weak year at the Academy Awards.

I CANNOT believe The Shape of Water won Best Picture. I recently watched it for the first time, and while I enjoyed Guillermo del Toro's creative camerawork and Dan Laustsen's whimsical cinematography, the story itself left much to be desired. It was essentially a more offbeat -- and ultimately, weaker -- version of Disney's animated Beauty and the Beast. Maybe I can squeeze a 6 out of 10; but certainly no more than that.

Which brings us to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Lady Bird. Both of these films are superior to the Best Picture winner. Frances McDormand dominated awards season in the Best Actress category, but I felt Saoirse Ronan provided a better and more naturalistic performance. Before I get into the direct comparisons, let's take a look at the movies themselves...

THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

Three Billboards' greatest gift is its unpredictability. 

Every time you think quirky writer/director Martin McDonagh is going to go a certain way, he approaches the cliche then quickly darts away from it. 

In an early scene, we get a flashback to the day Angela (Kathryn Newton) went missing. She has a quick-and-nasty fight with her mother, Mildred (McDormand), then storms out of the house. From that point forward, I expected parallel timelines. I thought we'd see more and more of the day Angela was brutally murdered; but future flashbacks never came to fruition. That's the only time we see Newton on screen. 

Later on, at a key moment, Det. Willoughby (Woody Harrelson) says:

 "There are just some cases, where you never catch a break. Then 5 years down the line, some guy hears some other guy braggin' about it in a barroom or a jail cell."

The second I heard that line, I was nearly positive the movie would end that way. And (**SPOILERS**) guess what? We get to that crucial moment in the bar. Former Det. Dixon (Sam Rockwell) overhears some fittingly-suspicious storytelling by a menacing creep (Brendan Sexton), and by god we have our man!

But, of course, we don't. 

Det. Abercrombie (Clarke Peters) investigates the matter, only to find that the highly-suspicious suspect was clean. He may have been guilty of other crimes, but he did not murder Angela. He wasn't even in the country at the time. 

Then, most notably, we have the ending. I love it! We think we may get to see Mildred and Dixon take some bloodthirsty revenge on the world, but McDonagh stops us right in our tracks. These are all good things. Convention is boring and a waste of viewers' time. You'll remember that Three Billboards left you hanging, right? McDonagh did the same with Colin Farrell in In Bruges. 

So, McDonagh successfully shirks convention...sometimes. 

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I wasn't head over heels about McDormand's performance. The whole thing kind of felt like a cliche to me -- "a mother scorned." We've seen the defiant, unraveling mother character so many times before, and the role felt like it was written for McDormand to win an Oscar. 

I don't like to feel that way. When something stinks of awards bait, I write it off rather quickly. That's why I panned Oscar nominees like La La Land, Brooklyn, The Theory of Everything, American Sniper and The Blind Side. They're laying it on too thick. Ease off the saccharine, please. 

Other cliches in Three Billboards: the little person (Peter Dinklage) is discriminated against because of his height; the wise black man (Peters) cleans up the mess of a redneck white man (Rockwell), and a key character commits suicide at a critical point in the story. 

In the end, as always, there are ups and downs in McDonagh's work. He tries really hard with Three Billboards (far superior to anything I can do), but it's a messy, undefined work of art. It could have been better. Maybe it would have benefited from a longer running time. Whatever the case may be...it's still better than The Shape of Water. 

** JOHN FRASCELLA'S SCORE: 7.5 OUT OF 10 **

LADY BIRD

Saoirse Ronan is the next Meryl Streep. I say this to everyone I know. 

I despised Brooklyn -- for the same reasons listed above -- but I came away from the film knowing that Saoirse Ronan is the best young actress working today. She is vulnerable, funny, smart, passionate and positively luminescent. When she smiles, I smile. When she's upset, I'm upset. She's the perfect audience surrogate. 

So here we reap the benefits of her extraordinary talents in a much better film, Lady Bird. Greta Gerwig was buzzing around Hollywood for writing and directing such a lively, lovely little film; but again, it couldn't and wouldn't have been such a phenomenon without Ronan's control over the emotional center of the story. Gerwig is a snappy writer and entertaining director, but Ronan is a true megastar. 

Lady Bird isn't really an original story. It's a heartfelt, coming-of-age yarn, not unlike Juno and The Edge of Seventeen of recent years. But those were also excellent films. Lady Bird is definitely right there with them. 

"Lady Bird" (Ronan) yearns to be unique; so much so, in fact, that she discards her given name (Christine). Her parents, Marion (a fantastic Laurie Metcalf) and Larry (a believable Tracy Letts) are regular people. They don't come from much, nor do they have much now. Lady Bird wants more. She acts in the school production, philosophizes with friends (Julie Steffans and Lucas Hedges, both wonderful) and desperately wants to escape to college at UC Davis (a University of California campus). 

Gerwig isn't reinventing the wheel here; she's polishing and making it nice and shiny. 

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Lady Bird is a universal story about personal growth and real-world family issues. Who could blame Christine for wanting to make an adult life for herself? Who could blame Marion for wanting to keep her family together? Of course we side with Christine -- because Ronan is effectively electrifying -- but we also get the sense that Marion defines her life through her family. What happens when that family starts to slip away? Marion is already a high-strung worrywart. Is she headed full-steam toward an implosion?

The questions Gerwig's screenplay asks are so believable, and essential. We should all strive to create our own unique paths. But do we? How much of our lives is convention? Do we do what we do because it's what everyone else does?

As far as the performances go, Hedges establishes such sweet chemistry with Ronan. When they lie in the grass at night, gazing up at the stars in each other's arms, we are reminded of that stage in our own lives. A time when we were young and aware. When the entire world was in front of us. A time of endless possibilities. Gerwig absolutely nails that moment. 

Unfortunately, as is the case with many first loves, things don't work out between Christine and Danny. I'll let you find out why. 

Steffans is a bubbly, funny and lovable best friend, and Bob Stephenson knocks it out of the park in a small-but-hilarious role. 

Ronan and Gerwig are the stars here, but Heidi Griffiths, Allison Jones and Jordan Thaler casted the hell out of this thing. Jones has put together casts for Arrested Development, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Veep, The Office, Bridesmaids, Step Brothers, Superbad, Knocked Up and The 40-Year Old Virgin. If you're a comedic character actor, you probably need to know her. I'm sure she knows you. 

When you have an unoriginal story, you need original characters. My hat's off to Gerwig, the casting directors and performers for their collective work on Lady Bird. There's something for everyone in this one. 

And if nothing else...just sit back and watch Saoirse Ronan do what she was born to do. 

** JOHN FRASCELLA'S SCORE: 9 OUT OF 10 **

My up-to-date review rankings:

1. Up in the Air (9.5/10)
2. Steve Jobs (9.5/10)
3. Margin Call (9/10)
4. Lady Bird (9/10)
5. Stay (9/10)
6. Gone Girl (9/10)
7. Nocturnal Animals (9/10)
8. 45 Years (9/10)
9. The Edge of Seventeen (9/10)
10. Tape (9/10)
11. A Perfect Murder (9/10)

12. War Dogs (8.5/10)
13. In Bruges (8.5/10)

14. Split (8.5/10)

15. Bad Moms (8.5/10)

16. Basquiat (8.5/10)

17. Moonlight (8/10)
18. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (7.5/10)

19. The Revenant (7.5/10)
20. The Good Shepherd (7.5/10)

21. The Shallows (7.5/10)
22. Focus (7.5/10) 

23. The Night Before (7.5/10)
24. The Walk (7/10)

25. 10 Cloverfield Lane (7/10)
26. Loving (7/10) - No review available
27. The Shape of Water (6/10) - discussed in this review
28. The Boy (6/10) - No review available

29. Joy (5.5/10)

30. La La Land (5.5/10)
31. The Visit (5/10) - discussed in this review
32. Molly's Game (5/10)
33. Set It Up (5/10)
34. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (4.5/10) - No review available
35. Brooklyn (4.5/10) - discussed in this review, and this review
36. Why Him? (3.5/10) - No review available
37. The Program (3/10)
38. Shut In (2/10) - No review available
39. Premonition (2/10) - No review available

40. Rings (1.5/10)
41. Mother's Day (1.5/10)

Reviews to Come...

Eastern Promises
A Quiet Place
Life of Pi
Wind River
Hell or High Water

Sunshine Cleaning

Zero Dark Thirty
The Box
Annabelle: Creation
The Conjuring 2
Baby Driver
Body of Lies

Untraceable

The Wonder Boys

Jackie Brown

Mean Streets

Nerve

The Hateful Eight

The Seven Five

How to Be Single

Deadpool

Ratatouille

The Spectacular Now
The Purge: Election Year
And more...

John Frascella's Fantasy RB Rankings: Should We Ride the Saquon Barkley Hype Train?

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In Volume I of my preseason rankings, I discussed Russell Wilson's fantasy dominance, Jimmy Garoppolo's hype and the injury concerns surrounding both Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz.

This time around, we'll see if rookie sensation Saquon Barkley belongs with the big boys atop my running back rankings...

PART I: WHERE, EXACTLY, DOES TIER 1 END?

Daaaaaamn! Running back is stacked this year. 

I don't think you can question Todd Gurley in any way -- he's probably the most physically gifted player at his position, and Sean McVay finds ingenious ways to get him the ball in space -- so the No. 1 spot is pretty cut-and-dried. The mystery starts after that.

We have to assume Le'Veon Bell's holdout will end the same way as last year, right? If that's the case, in PPR formats, he has to be your No. 2 or 3 running back. The other consideration would be David Johnson. Obviously, coming off a devastating season-ending injury, there's risk involved; but we all know Johnson was a dominant fantasy player in 2016. Considering Sam Bradford's injury-riddled past and Josh Rosen's rookie status, you can expect the Cardinals to lean on Johnson and ride him until he can't run any longer.

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Alvin Kamara should be another PPR monster. He was one of the premier breakout players last season, and now Mark Ingram is suspended for the first four games of the season. This is Kamara's time to run wild. It's extremely important to get off to a fast start in fantasy football, so Kamara looks like a no-brainer in the early rounds.

In non-PPR leagues, Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette look awfully good. These are traditional bellcow rushers. Zeke and Fournette are the focal points of the Cowboy and Jaguar offenses, respectively. Their roles are super enticing, and they are purely talented players at their position.

And that brings us to the poster boy -- Saquon Barkley.

In terms of raw, natural ability, Saquon certainly looks to be the real deal. Perhaps more importantly, the Giants will do everything they can to justify their pick -- that means feeding Saquon in every possible manner. You'll see a heavy carry load on straight handoffs, as well as designed and check-down screens out of the backfield. Don't forget that Eli Manning is crawling, weakly, toward the end of his fun career. Yes, the Giants boast Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, but don't expect this to be a pass-happy offense. Barkley is going to get all he can eat.

TIER 1 RANKINGS (PPR):

1. Todd Gurley
2. Le'Veon Bell
3. David Johnson
4. Alvin Kamara
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Saquon Barkley
7. Christian McCaffrey
8. Leonard Fournette

TIER 1 RANKINGS (NON-PPR):

1. Todd Gurley
2. David Johnson
3. Le'Veon Bell
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. Alvin Kamara
6. Saquon Barkley
7. Leonard Fournette

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Obviously McCaffrey has far more value in PPR leagues. With Kelvin Benjamin gone and a thin wide receiver corps, Cam Newton will be targeting McCaffrey as often as humanly possible.

PART II: "HUNTING" FOR VALUE

I feel people hesitating when it comes to Kareem Hunt. Was his rookie production a fluke? Will Alex Smith's departure cause chemistry issues? Is Spencer Ware a threat to him at all? 

These are interesting and valid questions, but Hunt remains near the top of Tier 2. I'm sure Andy Reid will want to protect Pat Mahomes' confidence, which means some conservative gameplans and plenty of safe touches for Hunt in the redzone. 

Melvin Gordon is a pretty safe play, but I feel his legs slowing down. He's taken a ton of heavy hits over the course of the past two seasons, and we know running backs have short shelf lives. Keep an eye on fatigue and overall wear-and-tear; yet and still, Gordon is a safe fantasy pick given his role and team situation. 

I'm not a Jordan Howard guy, but the Bears are fully committed to him. He doesn't blow me away with his natural ability; but from a fantasy perspective, you have to like the security of his role. I'm also not a Mitchell Trubisky guy, but that doesn't mean he won't improve in year two. Maybe Trubisky and Allen Robinson can open up the field a bit for Howard. I'm not a Bears believer -- but were there any Jaguars believers in the preseason last year?

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Dalvin Cook looked really good before going down as a rookie. Jerick McKinnon is gone, so Latavius Murray is the only occasional threat to his role. Cook is a roll of the dice because...what if he just ends up being an injury-prone kid? There's no way to know for sure at this point. I see myself gambling on Cook, though. I'm hoping opposing coaches will be scared away by last season's sobering injury. He's a pretty explosive talent. 

Devonta Freeman is like Melvin Gordon with more miles. Freeman has really delivered when I've had him on my teams, but he's aging while Tevin Coleman comes on strong. I'm sure both rushers will help the Falcons in actual football, but this isn't the best fantasy football situation. I'll probably stay off both guys. 

TIER 2 RANKINGS (PPR):

9. Melvin Gordon

10. Kareem Hunt

11. Jordan Howard

12. Dalvin Cook

13. Jerick McKinnon

14. Devonta Freeman

15. LeSean McCoy

The domestic violence stuff just scares me with McCoy. It should scare everyone -- in fantasy and real life. I have to believe a suspension is coming. Even if it doesn't, "Shady" is one of the oldest RB1's in the NFL, and the Bills' offensive situation leaves a lot to be desired. 

McKinnon is a sexy pick this year, but I still like him. I was always a proponent of his in Minnesota, and the Matt Breida injury should help his early workload. Like I said about McVay with Gurley -- I expect Kyle Shanahan to find a variety of creative ways to get McKinnon the rock in space. I don't like hype teams -- and the 49ers most certainly are one -- but I'd still pull the trigger on McKinnon. 

TIER 2 RANKINGS (NON-PPR):

8. Christian McCaffrey

9. Kareem Hunt

10. Melvin Gordon

11. Jordan Howard

12. Dalvin Cook

13. Jerick McKinnon

14. Devonta Freeman

15. LeSean McCoy

PART III: THIS IS WHEN YOU START THROWING DARTS AT THE WALL

I don't even know if we can really define a Tier 3 at this point. 

Kenyan Drake looked tremendous down the stretch last year, but the Dolphins' brass is really talking up future Hall of Famer Frank Gore. I got burnt on a situation like this before -- Jerome Harrison had a dominant second half for the Browns, but the next season he didn't get the touches anyone had previously expected. That was Peyton Hillis' breakout year. Remember him (Madden cover)? 

Isaiah Crowell, Carlos Hyde and Dion Lewis all have new homes. Crowell already has a head injury with the Jets, and Todd Bowles has no idea what he is doing, anyway. Hyde should get the benefit of the doubt in Cleveland; I expect them to force workload on him, which is always beneficial for fantasy. Lewis has to split with Derrick Henry; the latter would be higher in Tier 3 for me, if Tennessee had gone the Zeke or Fournette route with him. Alas, Henry will have to be farther down in my rankings. 

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Jay Ajayi should be more comfortable in Philly this time around. Marlon Mack already has a hamstring strain. Kerryon Johnson is getting an awful lot of hype in Detroit, and Chris Carson is always (somehow) intriguing in Seattle. This is the gambling area of the group. Let's take a look at the way they stack up:

TIER 3 RANKINGS:

16. Carlos Hyde

17. Kenyan Drake

18. Kerryon Johnson

19. Jay Ajayi

20. Marlon Mack

21. Chris Thompson (Derrius Guice just went down for the season)

PART IV: COMMITTEES, VETS AND UNSEXY PICKS

This is where you just have to get lucky. It's more of a matter of opinion than fact. Here's the way it shakes out for me:

RANKING EVERYBODY ELSE:

21. Isaiah Crowell

22. Derrick Henry

23. Rex Burkhead

24. Lamar Miller

25. Chris Carson

26. Joe Mixon

27. Alex Collins

28. Marshawn Lynch

29. Devontae Booker

30. Ronald Jones

Again, don't forget to check out my fantasy quarterback rankings. Best of luck to all!

John Frascella's Fantasy QB Rankings: Is Deshaun Watson Coming for Russell Wilson's Crown?

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For obvious strategy reasons, I generally refrain from posting my preseason fantasy rankings. But last year, in my deep 14-team league, I started 2-0 before losing every game for the rest of the season. Injuries dismantled the All-Pro core of my team by Week 4, and once again I was reminded that winning in fantasy football comes down to staying healthy. Sure, deep teams can withstand multiple injuries, but the 14-team structure doesn't allow for high-quality depth.

While I did reach the postseason in other leagues, I recognized that those squads stayed (mostly) healthy. So what am I losing by posting my thoughts? Nothing, really. Maybe my advice can help another coach across the country while my team goes down in flames.

(EDITOR'S NOTE: I started this piece on August 1, so some items may be slightly dated.)

PART I: ONLY FOR THE BIG DOGS

Russell Wilson was an f'n boss last season. In my aforementioned league, he finished with an astonishing 347.92 points. He was FORTY EIGHT points ahead of his nearest competitor, dab-king Cam Newton. Off the top of your head, would you have thought that Wilson was nearly 100 points better than Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Jared Goff? 

So yeah, if you had Russ last year, there's a good chance you nabbed a high playoff seed. 

Obviously, Russ is a fantasy monster because of his run-pass versatility. Michael Vick used to spark fantasy the way Wilson does now, but Russ is a MUCH better passer than Vick ever was. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are always huge names to consider near the top, but I don't think you can come off Wilson as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. 

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The only knock on Wilson is a weak supporting cast. He's no stranger to this, though. The Seahawks always seem to have a suspect receiving corps, and yet Wilson rattles off huge numbers. I think he's one of the most underappreciated athletes in all of sports. This season Doug Baldwin is coming in with a legitimate knee concern, and Paul Richardson left for some big bucks from the Redskins. Jimmy Graham signed with the Packers, but he never really clicked with Pete Carroll or Darrell Bevell (who has since been replaced by Brian Schottenheimer), anyway. 

So Russ will have to make due with a hobbling Baldwin, perennial underachiever Tyler Lockett and -- gulp -- Brandon Marshall? I mean, yeah, this is pretty bad. This sub-par group could conceivably narrow the gap between Wilson and his nearest competitors. On the plus side, if Seattle commits to Chris Carson I think he can stabilize their ragtag rushing attack. Since Marshawn Lynch "retired," Carroll has been passing the buck between Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael and more of the like. Those guys were on a midnight train going nowhere. I think Carson is their best since "Beast Mode". 

MY RANKINGS FOR TIER 1:

1. Russell Wilson

2. Aaron Rodgers

3. Tom Brady

4. Drew Brees

5. Deshaun Watson

6. Carson Wentz
7. Cam Newton

8. Ben Roethlisberger

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Watson and Wentz are in a similar boat. Both youngsters were taking the league by storm last year, before devastating injuries ended their outstanding campaigns. I'm leaning slightly in Watson's favor because there are some early camp concerns about Wentz's health. I tend to be ultra-conservative in those scenarios, so the battle of the comebacks goes to Watson. Also, we saw what he could do pre-injury. He was top 3 in fantasy points per game. He's an absolutely electric performer who has the luxury of targeting DeAndre Hopkins all the time. In my opinion, Hop is right there with both Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.

The tricky guy in this group is Big Ben. Obviously his body has taken a beating over the years and he occasionally appears to be wearing down, but then he goes and drops 469 yards and 5 touchdowns on the top-ranked Jaguars' D in the playoffs. When healthy, he puts up huge numbers with Brown, Le'Veon Bell (assuming his holdout ends) and now JuJu Smith-Schuster. The conservative ranking -- based on track record and consistency -- is No. 5, but the aggressive ranking is No. 8. My ranking accounts for the upside with Watson, Wentz and Cam.

Cam is always a play because he rushes like a running back. I like that he calls his own number in the redzone, but Carolina's receiving corps leaves much to be desired. Cam will often divert his targets to other positions, with Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen serving as elite receivers at running back and tight end, respectively.

PART II: HIGH UPSIDE, EQUAL DOWNSIDE

Jimmy Garoppolo has to be over-hyped, right?

I've been very impressed with the kid since he filled in for Brady during his Deflategate four-game suspension, but I think fantasy coaches are reaching this season. He was fantastic after taking over the 49ers' starting job down the stretch, but Kyle Shanahan's club is a little short on weapons. RB Jerick McKinnon was a very nice pickup, but WR1 Pierre Garcon is advancing in years and coming off an alarming injury, and how much stock can we really put in WR2 Marquise Goodwin? I don't particularly mind either receiver, but is this a unit that allows for "The Greek God" to rank alongside Wilson, Rodgers and Brady? I've seen a number of lists that have him that high. 

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As always, I'm going to play it cautiously. Especially when we are dealing with a fully-steamed Hype Train. Jimmy G. is staying in Tier 2 for me. 

Elsewhere, how will Kirk Cousins mesh with Mike Zimmer, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen? There are two ways of looking at it: (1) In a vacuum, Cousins is a better and more talented quarterback than Case Keenum, so he should light it up with Minnesota; or (2) It takes QBs time to develop chemistry with RBs, WRs and TEs. Maybe things will be a little helter skelter for the Vikings this season. It depends on the way you want to look at it. 

It's a somewhat similar situation for Derek Carr, no?

In come Jon Gruden and Jordy Nelson. Last year was simply a lost season for the Raiders and Carr. Can he stay healthy and strike the right notes with both Gruden and Jordy? And what about Amari Cooper - which version of him will we get? The legit WR1 or the stone-handed detriment to his team? I guess that depends on his comfort level with Gruden's in-your-face-but-funny coaching style. Question marks, question marks...

MY RANKINGS FOR TIER 2:

9. Philip Rivers

10. Matthew Stafford

11. Kirk Cousins

12. Jimmy Garoppolo

13. Andrew Luck

14. Jared Goff

15. Matt Ryan

16. Alex Smith

17. Derek Carr

18. Case Keenum

Obviously Luck is always a who the hell knows? type of player. At his best he's a potential fantasy MVP; at his worst he plays 3-4 games then is out for the season. If you're going with RBs and WRs early, Luck is the type of risk-reward QB you pair with a Tier 2 guy who drops. You see it every year. A lot of times Rivers is hanging around toward the end of my drafts. A Luck/Rivers combo could potentially do some serious damage for you. 

Goff is a regression candidate because that's always the case with breakout youngsters. I believe in Sean McVay, though. I'm sure he'll keep Goff rolling by spreading the ball around to Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Todd Gurley. The Rams have weapons and a coach who knows what to do with them. 

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Keenum is in no man's fantasy land because his Vikings' breakout was totally unexpected. Which guy do we get this year? Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are quality wideouts and Keenum is a clear upgrade over Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch -- but was last year still a little fluky? One of the benefits of Keenum's situation is that the AFC West is wide open with Alex Smith now in Washington. The Broncos should be competitive with the Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders. Depending on the way things break, any of those squads could win the division. 

I prefer Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to anyone the Redskins have to offer, but Smith will find his way in Washington. He's too smart, determined and crafty to fail. 

PART III: THE YOUNG, OLD AND UNSPECTACULAR

Not gonna waste too much time on analysis here. The TIER 3 rankings are:

19. Pat Mahomes

20. Marcus Mariota

21. Andy Dalton

22. Eli Manning

23. Dak Prescott

24. Ryan Tannehill

25. Joe Flacco

Clearly Mahomes has the highest upside here, but we can't know what to expect. Andy Reid will coach him up good and proper, but that doesn't necessarily mean the kid will deliver. I wonder if the Chiefs will end up regretting this like the 49ers. You remember the hasty transition from Smith to Colin Kaepernick, right?

TIER 4:

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26. Blake Bortles

27. Tyrod Taylor (never know when Baker Mayfield may get the call)

28. Mitchell Trubisky

29. Josh McCown (same with Sam Darnold)

30. Sam Bradford (ewwwww, can't stand him)

31. Josh Rosen

32. Sam Darnold

33. Baker Mayfield

That's right...no Bills! Good luck in your fantasy drafts, ladies and gentlemen.