After failing to reach the postseason in three out of the preceding four seasons, the young Yanks -- led by up-and-coming power hitters Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, as well as elite manager Joe Girardi -- always went a step further than people expected.
Following a rough start in the AL Wild Card game against the scrappy Twins, they came back and won in resounding fashion. Trailing 2-0 in the ALDS against the more experienced Indians, they stormed back for an epic, comeback series victory. The Houston Astros were a dominant club all season; but in the ALCS, the energetic and fearless Yanks pushed them to an unexpected seventh game.
The season was a startling success for a squad that wasn't expected to do much. Superstar GM Brian Cashman slowly moved his chess pieces around, until the rest of the league began to worry about checkmate.
Prior to the start of the 2018 MLB campaign, I predicted the Yankees would win the AL East. Judge, Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Luis Severino and Aroldis Chapman were set to return in fine health, and the Bronx would be welcoming megastar outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, coming off the best season of his much-hyped career.
All the pieces were in place. It certainly appeared to be the Yankees' time.
But here we are on July 28, and these Yanks are five games behind the high-octane Red Sox, who have been carried by MVP seasons from both Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. One could easily make an argument that Betts and Martinez have been the absolute best players in the American League.
On the other hand, Sanchez is batting .188 for the Yanks. He's battled injuries throughout the year, and the little plate discipline he had has completely dissipated. Sanchez has been going way out of the strikeout all season, and we haven't seen any signs of a turnaround. From the day he reached the bigs, he's always been considered one of the worst all-around defensive players at his position. So if he can't hit, field or stay on the active roster...what value does he have?
Judge recently fractured his wrist; so we'll see how he looks in about a month when he returns. Obviously, going forward, a major wrist injury is a serious concern for a player who is relied upon for his offensive production. Hopefully Judge returns in fine form; if not my fantasy team is dead. In reality, if Sanchez is injured and/or ineffective, this Yankee offense needs all-star contributions from Judge.
After a superhero start, Gregorius is hitting just .263. Brett Gardner is down at .249, Aaron Hicks .245, Greg Bird .228 and Neil Walker .213. The Yankees are tied for 11th in team batting average; keep in mind that the Astros won the World Series last year and had the highest average in the majors -- by a significant margin. Eleventh simply may not get it done.
The Red Sox are first in batting average, and the Cubbies are second. They also have the best records in their respective leagues.
It's time for a Frascella tangent, but this one is warranted -- you see how dumb all of the sabermetric stats are? The Astros won the World Series last year and had the highest batting average. The Red Sox and Cubs have the best records in their leagues this year, and they have the highest batting averages.
Ya think, just maybe, we don't need WAR, Base-Out Runs Added or Win Probability Added? I still think batting average and home runs are all we need. If you have one of those, you have a nice player. If you crush it in both of those categories, you have a stud. Analytics experts have made things more complicated so they can secure jobs in the MLB. For them, it's a sound business strategy. But at the end of the day, you can read what I just wrote about the facts of batting average in the game right now.
Back to the Bronx, Sonny Gray has a 5.08 ERA. Masahiro Tanaka is over 4.00, and CC Sabathia is 38 years old. How much can you really lean on Severino? Is J.A. Happ really the answer?
On the whole, Severino, Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Chapman and Dellin Betances have all been superb this season. We know where the bright spots are. But are there simply too many question marks, when it comes to competing with powerhouses like the Astros, Red Sox and Indians in the playoffs?
I mean, we're all thinking about the elephant in the room...
Aaron Boone. This guy isn't one-tenth of the manager Girardi was. Ya can't exactly blame him -- he has zero managerial experience and has to work out the kinks -- but this Yankee club is ready to compete now.
Will he screw up a potential Wild Card game against the Mariners or Athletics? Will the Yankees need Judge and Sanchez at 100 percent to win that game?
Of course, the biggest problem is the Wild Card game itself. It's just dumb. One hundred sixty-two games to play just one? After all that? It's totally illogical and unfair, and it should be a best-of-three series with the better record earning the home field.
But it is what it is. The Red Sox show no signs of slowing up. There's a very high probability they'll be the AL East champs.
That leaves these disjointed Yanks in a one-game scenario. Anything can happen. What if you fall behind again this year, but you can't come back this time? That's it. It's all over. What if Boone gets out-managed by Scott Servais or Bob Melvin? What if Severino struggles the way he did against the Twins last year?
These are all legitimate concerns. This is what happens when you don't win your division. The Yankees still have time to make a move, but it doesn't look promising without Judge or Sanchez. To be honest, it doesn't look promising without Girardi, either.
So...all of that promise from a year ago. All of that positive energy. All of that fighting against the odds. Those are all faded memories of a not-so-distant past, while the current reality is that the Yankees are on shaky ground.
Cashman was so close to checkmate...and now?
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