This time around, we'll see if rookie sensation Saquon Barkley belongs with the big boys atop my running back rankings...
PART I: WHERE, EXACTLY, DOES TIER 1 END?
Daaaaaamn! Running back is stacked this year.
I don't think you can question Todd Gurley in any way -- he's probably the most physically gifted player at his position, and Sean McVay finds ingenious ways to get him the ball in space -- so the No. 1 spot is pretty cut-and-dried. The mystery starts after that.
We have to assume Le'Veon Bell's holdout will end the same way as last year, right? If that's the case, in PPR formats, he has to be your No. 2 or 3 running back. The other consideration would be David Johnson. Obviously, coming off a devastating season-ending injury, there's risk involved; but we all know Johnson was a dominant fantasy player in 2016. Considering Sam Bradford's injury-riddled past and Josh Rosen's rookie status, you can expect the Cardinals to lean on Johnson and ride him until he can't run any longer.
Alvin Kamara should be another PPR monster. He was one of the premier breakout players last season, and now Mark Ingram is suspended for the first four games of the season. This is Kamara's time to run wild. It's extremely important to get off to a fast start in fantasy football, so Kamara looks like a no-brainer in the early rounds.
In non-PPR leagues, Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette look awfully good. These are traditional bellcow rushers. Zeke and Fournette are the focal points of the Cowboy and Jaguar offenses, respectively. Their roles are super enticing, and they are purely talented players at their position.
And that brings us to the poster boy -- Saquon Barkley.
In terms of raw, natural ability, Saquon certainly looks to be the real deal. Perhaps more importantly, the Giants will do everything they can to justify their pick -- that means feeding Saquon in every possible manner. You'll see a heavy carry load on straight handoffs, as well as designed and check-down screens out of the backfield. Don't forget that Eli Manning is crawling, weakly, toward the end of his fun career. Yes, the Giants boast Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, but don't expect this to be a pass-happy offense. Barkley is going to get all he can eat.
TIER 1 RANKINGS (PPR):
1. Todd Gurley
2. Le'Veon Bell
3. David Johnson
4. Alvin Kamara
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Saquon Barkley
7. Christian McCaffrey
8. Leonard Fournette
TIER 1 RANKINGS (NON-PPR):
1. Todd Gurley
2. David Johnson
3. Le'Veon Bell
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. Alvin Kamara
6. Saquon Barkley
7. Leonard Fournette
Obviously McCaffrey has far more value in PPR leagues. With Kelvin Benjamin gone and a thin wide receiver corps, Cam Newton will be targeting McCaffrey as often as humanly possible.
Dalvin Cook looked really good before going down as a rookie. Jerick McKinnon is gone, so Latavius Murray is the only occasional threat to his role. Cook is a roll of the dice because...what if he just ends up being an injury-prone kid? There's no way to know for sure at this point. I see myself gambling on Cook, though. I'm hoping opposing coaches will be scared away by last season's sobering injury. He's a pretty explosive talent.
Jay Ajayi should be more comfortable in Philly this time around. Marlon Mack already has a hamstring strain. Kerryon Johnson is getting an awful lot of hype in Detroit, and Chris Carson is always (somehow) intriguing in Seattle. This is the gambling area of the group. Let's take a look at the way they stack up:
We have to assume Le'Veon Bell's holdout will end the same way as last year, right? If that's the case, in PPR formats, he has to be your No. 2 or 3 running back. The other consideration would be David Johnson. Obviously, coming off a devastating season-ending injury, there's risk involved; but we all know Johnson was a dominant fantasy player in 2016. Considering Sam Bradford's injury-riddled past and Josh Rosen's rookie status, you can expect the Cardinals to lean on Johnson and ride him until he can't run any longer.
Alvin Kamara should be another PPR monster. He was one of the premier breakout players last season, and now Mark Ingram is suspended for the first four games of the season. This is Kamara's time to run wild. It's extremely important to get off to a fast start in fantasy football, so Kamara looks like a no-brainer in the early rounds.
In non-PPR leagues, Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette look awfully good. These are traditional bellcow rushers. Zeke and Fournette are the focal points of the Cowboy and Jaguar offenses, respectively. Their roles are super enticing, and they are purely talented players at their position.
And that brings us to the poster boy -- Saquon Barkley.
In terms of raw, natural ability, Saquon certainly looks to be the real deal. Perhaps more importantly, the Giants will do everything they can to justify their pick -- that means feeding Saquon in every possible manner. You'll see a heavy carry load on straight handoffs, as well as designed and check-down screens out of the backfield. Don't forget that Eli Manning is crawling, weakly, toward the end of his fun career. Yes, the Giants boast Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram, but don't expect this to be a pass-happy offense. Barkley is going to get all he can eat.
TIER 1 RANKINGS (PPR):
1. Todd Gurley
2. Le'Veon Bell
3. David Johnson
4. Alvin Kamara
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Saquon Barkley
7. Christian McCaffrey
8. Leonard Fournette
TIER 1 RANKINGS (NON-PPR):
1. Todd Gurley
2. David Johnson
3. Le'Veon Bell
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. Alvin Kamara
6. Saquon Barkley
7. Leonard Fournette
Obviously McCaffrey has far more value in PPR leagues. With Kelvin Benjamin gone and a thin wide receiver corps, Cam Newton will be targeting McCaffrey as often as humanly possible.
PART II: "HUNTING" FOR VALUE
I feel people hesitating when it comes to Kareem Hunt. Was his rookie production a fluke? Will Alex Smith's departure cause chemistry issues? Is Spencer Ware a threat to him at all?
These are interesting and valid questions, but Hunt remains near the top of Tier 2. I'm sure Andy Reid will want to protect Pat Mahomes' confidence, which means some conservative gameplans and plenty of safe touches for Hunt in the redzone.
Melvin Gordon is a pretty safe play, but I feel his legs slowing down. He's taken a ton of heavy hits over the course of the past two seasons, and we know running backs have short shelf lives. Keep an eye on fatigue and overall wear-and-tear; yet and still, Gordon is a safe fantasy pick given his role and team situation.
I'm not a Jordan Howard guy, but the Bears are fully committed to him. He doesn't blow me away with his natural ability; but from a fantasy perspective, you have to like the security of his role. I'm also not a Mitchell Trubisky guy, but that doesn't mean he won't improve in year two. Maybe Trubisky and Allen Robinson can open up the field a bit for Howard. I'm not a Bears believer -- but were there any Jaguars believers in the preseason last year?
Dalvin Cook looked really good before going down as a rookie. Jerick McKinnon is gone, so Latavius Murray is the only occasional threat to his role. Cook is a roll of the dice because...what if he just ends up being an injury-prone kid? There's no way to know for sure at this point. I see myself gambling on Cook, though. I'm hoping opposing coaches will be scared away by last season's sobering injury. He's a pretty explosive talent.
Devonta Freeman is like Melvin Gordon with more miles. Freeman has really delivered when I've had him on my teams, but he's aging while Tevin Coleman comes on strong. I'm sure both rushers will help the Falcons in actual football, but this isn't the best fantasy football situation. I'll probably stay off both guys.
TIER 2 RANKINGS (PPR):
9. Melvin Gordon
10. Kareem Hunt
11. Jordan Howard
12. Dalvin Cook
13. Jerick McKinnon
14. Devonta Freeman
15. LeSean McCoy
The domestic violence stuff just scares me with McCoy. It should scare everyone -- in fantasy and real life. I have to believe a suspension is coming. Even if it doesn't, "Shady" is one of the oldest RB1's in the NFL, and the Bills' offensive situation leaves a lot to be desired.
McKinnon is a sexy pick this year, but I still like him. I was always a proponent of his in Minnesota, and the Matt Breida injury should help his early workload. Like I said about McVay with Gurley -- I expect Kyle Shanahan to find a variety of creative ways to get McKinnon the rock in space. I don't like hype teams -- and the 49ers most certainly are one -- but I'd still pull the trigger on McKinnon.
TIER 2 RANKINGS (NON-PPR):
8. Christian McCaffrey
9. Kareem Hunt
10. Melvin Gordon
11. Jordan Howard
12. Dalvin Cook
13. Jerick McKinnon
14. Devonta Freeman
15. LeSean McCoy
PART III: THIS IS WHEN YOU START THROWING DARTS AT THE WALL
I don't even know if we can really define a Tier 3 at this point.
Kenyan Drake looked tremendous down the stretch last year, but the Dolphins' brass is really talking up future Hall of Famer Frank Gore. I got burnt on a situation like this before -- Jerome Harrison had a dominant second half for the Browns, but the next season he didn't get the touches anyone had previously expected. That was Peyton Hillis' breakout year. Remember him (Madden cover)?
Isaiah Crowell, Carlos Hyde and Dion Lewis all have new homes. Crowell already has a head injury with the Jets, and Todd Bowles has no idea what he is doing, anyway. Hyde should get the benefit of the doubt in Cleveland; I expect them to force workload on him, which is always beneficial for fantasy. Lewis has to split with Derrick Henry; the latter would be higher in Tier 3 for me, if Tennessee had gone the Zeke or Fournette route with him. Alas, Henry will have to be farther down in my rankings.
Jay Ajayi should be more comfortable in Philly this time around. Marlon Mack already has a hamstring strain. Kerryon Johnson is getting an awful lot of hype in Detroit, and Chris Carson is always (somehow) intriguing in Seattle. This is the gambling area of the group. Let's take a look at the way they stack up:
TIER 3 RANKINGS:
16. Carlos Hyde
17. Kenyan Drake
18. Kerryon Johnson
19. Jay Ajayi
20. Marlon Mack
21. Chris Thompson (Derrius Guice just went down for the season)
PART IV: COMMITTEES, VETS AND UNSEXY PICKS
This is where you just have to get lucky. It's more of a matter of opinion than fact. Here's the way it shakes out for me:
RANKING EVERYBODY ELSE:
21. Isaiah Crowell
22. Derrick Henry
23. Rex Burkhead
24. Lamar Miller
25. Chris Carson
26. Joe Mixon
27. Alex Collins
28. Marshawn Lynch
29. Devontae Booker
30. Ronald Jones
Again, don't forget to check out my fantasy quarterback rankings. Best of luck to all!
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