While I did reach the postseason in other leagues, I recognized that those squads stayed (mostly) healthy. So what am I losing by posting my thoughts? Nothing, really. Maybe my advice can help another coach across the country while my team goes down in flames.
(EDITOR'S NOTE: I started this piece on August 1, so some items may be slightly dated.)
PART I: ONLY FOR THE BIG DOGS
Russell Wilson was an f'n boss last season. In my aforementioned league, he finished with an astonishing 347.92 points. He was FORTY EIGHT points ahead of his nearest competitor, dab-king Cam Newton. Off the top of your head, would you have thought that Wilson was nearly 100 points better than Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Jared Goff?
So yeah, if you had Russ last year, there's a good chance you nabbed a high playoff seed.
Obviously, Russ is a fantasy monster because of his run-pass versatility. Michael Vick used to spark fantasy the way Wilson does now, but Russ is a MUCH better passer than Vick ever was. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are always huge names to consider near the top, but I don't think you can come off Wilson as the No. 1 fantasy quarterback.
The only knock on Wilson is a weak supporting cast. He's no stranger to this, though. The Seahawks always seem to have a suspect receiving corps, and yet Wilson rattles off huge numbers. I think he's one of the most underappreciated athletes in all of sports. This season Doug Baldwin is coming in with a legitimate knee concern, and Paul Richardson left for some big bucks from the Redskins. Jimmy Graham signed with the Packers, but he never really clicked with Pete Carroll or Darrell Bevell (who has since been replaced by Brian Schottenheimer), anyway.
So Russ will have to make due with a hobbling Baldwin, perennial underachiever Tyler Lockett and -- gulp -- Brandon Marshall? I mean, yeah, this is pretty bad. This sub-par group could conceivably narrow the gap between Wilson and his nearest competitors. On the plus side, if Seattle commits to Chris Carson I think he can stabilize their ragtag rushing attack. Since Marshawn Lynch "retired," Carroll has been passing the buck between Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael and more of the like. Those guys were on a midnight train going nowhere. I think Carson is their best since "Beast Mode".
MY RANKINGS FOR TIER 1:
1. Russell Wilson
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Tom Brady
4. Drew Brees
5. Deshaun Watson
6. Carson Wentz
7. Cam Newton
7. Cam Newton
8. Ben Roethlisberger
Watson and Wentz are in a similar boat. Both youngsters were taking the league by storm last year, before devastating injuries ended their outstanding campaigns. I'm leaning slightly in Watson's favor because there are some early camp concerns about Wentz's health. I tend to be ultra-conservative in those scenarios, so the battle of the comebacks goes to Watson. Also, we saw what he could do pre-injury. He was top 3 in fantasy points per game. He's an absolutely electric performer who has the luxury of targeting DeAndre Hopkins all the time. In my opinion, Hop is right there with both Antonio Brown and Julio Jones.
The tricky guy in this group is Big Ben. Obviously his body has taken a beating over the years and he occasionally appears to be wearing down, but then he goes and drops 469 yards and 5 touchdowns on the top-ranked Jaguars' D in the playoffs. When healthy, he puts up huge numbers with Brown, Le'Veon Bell (assuming his holdout ends) and now JuJu Smith-Schuster. The conservative ranking -- based on track record and consistency -- is No. 5, but the aggressive ranking is No. 8. My ranking accounts for the upside with Watson, Wentz and Cam.
Cam is always a play because he rushes like a running back. I like that he calls his own number in the redzone, but Carolina's receiving corps leaves much to be desired. Cam will often divert his targets to other positions, with Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen serving as elite receivers at running back and tight end, respectively.
PART II: HIGH UPSIDE, EQUAL DOWNSIDE
Jimmy Garoppolo has to be over-hyped, right?
I've been very impressed with the kid since he filled in for Brady during his Deflategate four-game suspension, but I think fantasy coaches are reaching this season. He was fantastic after taking over the 49ers' starting job down the stretch, but Kyle Shanahan's club is a little short on weapons. RB Jerick McKinnon was a very nice pickup, but WR1 Pierre Garcon is advancing in years and coming off an alarming injury, and how much stock can we really put in WR2 Marquise Goodwin? I don't particularly mind either receiver, but is this a unit that allows for "The Greek God" to rank alongside Wilson, Rodgers and Brady? I've seen a number of lists that have him that high.
As always, I'm going to play it cautiously. Especially when we are dealing with a fully-steamed Hype Train. Jimmy G. is staying in Tier 2 for me.
Elsewhere, how will Kirk Cousins mesh with Mike Zimmer, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen? There are two ways of looking at it: (1) In a vacuum, Cousins is a better and more talented quarterback than Case Keenum, so he should light it up with Minnesota; or (2) It takes QBs time to develop chemistry with RBs, WRs and TEs. Maybe things will be a little helter skelter for the Vikings this season. It depends on the way you want to look at it.
It's a somewhat similar situation for Derek Carr, no?
In come Jon Gruden and Jordy Nelson. Last year was simply a lost season for the Raiders and Carr. Can he stay healthy and strike the right notes with both Gruden and Jordy? And what about Amari Cooper - which version of him will we get? The legit WR1 or the stone-handed detriment to his team? I guess that depends on his comfort level with Gruden's in-your-face-but-funny coaching style. Question marks, question marks...
MY RANKINGS FOR TIER 2:
9. Philip Rivers
10. Matthew Stafford
11. Kirk Cousins
12. Jimmy Garoppolo
13. Andrew Luck
14. Jared Goff
15. Matt Ryan
16. Alex Smith
17. Derek Carr
18. Case Keenum
Obviously Luck is always a who the hell knows? type of player. At his best he's a potential fantasy MVP; at his worst he plays 3-4 games then is out for the season. If you're going with RBs and WRs early, Luck is the type of risk-reward QB you pair with a Tier 2 guy who drops. You see it every year. A lot of times Rivers is hanging around toward the end of my drafts. A Luck/Rivers combo could potentially do some serious damage for you.
Goff is a regression candidate because that's always the case with breakout youngsters. I believe in Sean McVay, though. I'm sure he'll keep Goff rolling by spreading the ball around to Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Todd Gurley. The Rams have weapons and a coach who knows what to do with them.
Keenum is in no man's fantasy land because his Vikings' breakout was totally unexpected. Which guy do we get this year? Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are quality wideouts and Keenum is a clear upgrade over Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch -- but was last year still a little fluky? One of the benefits of Keenum's situation is that the AFC West is wide open with Alex Smith now in Washington. The Broncos should be competitive with the Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders. Depending on the way things break, any of those squads could win the division.
I prefer Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to anyone the Redskins have to offer, but Smith will find his way in Washington. He's too smart, determined and crafty to fail.
PART III: THE YOUNG, OLD AND UNSPECTACULAR
Not gonna waste too much time on analysis here. The TIER 3 rankings are:
19. Pat Mahomes
20. Marcus Mariota
21. Andy Dalton
22. Eli Manning
23. Dak Prescott
24. Ryan Tannehill
25. Joe Flacco
Clearly Mahomes has the highest upside here, but we can't know what to expect. Andy Reid will coach him up good and proper, but that doesn't necessarily mean the kid will deliver. I wonder if the Chiefs will end up regretting this like the 49ers. You remember the hasty transition from Smith to Colin Kaepernick, right?
TIER 4:
26. Blake Bortles
27. Tyrod Taylor (never know when Baker Mayfield may get the call)
28. Mitchell Trubisky
29. Josh McCown (same with Sam Darnold)
30. Sam Bradford (ewwwww, can't stand him)
31. Josh Rosen
32. Sam Darnold
33. Baker Mayfield
That's right...no Bills! Good luck in your fantasy drafts, ladies and gentlemen.
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